{
  "version": "https://jsonfeed.org/version/1.1",
  "title": "algo2alpha — The Learning Investor — US Semiconductors",
  "home_page_url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ussemicon/",
  "feed_url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ussemicon/feed.json",
  "description": "Redacted end-of-day decision records for US Semiconductors.",
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Boon Sing Thia"
    }
  ],
  "items": [
    {
      "id": "ussemicon-2026-07-31",
      "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ussemicon/2026-07-31/",
      "title": "US Semiconductors — 2026-07-31",
      "summary": "EOD 2026-07-10",
      "content_text": "## USSEMICON End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-07-31\n\nEOD 2026-07-10\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) | 404.25 | SELL ALL | 404.25 | 375.56 | n/a | n/a | 347.18 (-14.1%) | Exiting TSMC in full. The business is excellent - record Q2 revenue of (+36% y/y) at a 67.7% gross margin, Q3 guided to -45.8B - but the trading signal has been absent for a week and the model's 12-week forward view has been negative for nine straight sessions, now -14.1% below spot. Thursday's +7% jump was sector beta from Microsoft's cloud results, not a TSMC-specific re-rating: the stock added just +0.23% on Friday and gave back its entire opening gap (419.50 open to 404.25 close). We take the loss rather than hold a position the model cannot form a view on. OPERATIONAL: re-issues the exit decided 07-27 and re-decided 07-28/29/30, unfilled five sessions by the stalled executor (last_run_date 2026-07-18, 14 days) - the missed 07-31 open fill at 419.50 : CLAUDE.md sec9 sustained-degradation - NoTrade cv0 in sessions (07-23/24/27/28/30/31) plus a 9-session negative 12wk. The 375.56 stop is RECLAIMED (+7.6%) so L2 is not claimed. PROFIT_ARMED is the 18th consecutive FALSE ARM (Gain_ATR -1.67, T12_Progress 116.44 on a -7.71% loss) - this is loss-control, not a profit-take, so the ADR-0012 never-100% cap does not apply. G1 n/a (cv0); G3 does not block (row is neither bullish nor positive-forward); G2 suppresses valuation-amplify (DCF vs is a broken artifact) so val_adj 0, no tier bump, sec9 amplify-only respected. Re-entry trigger unchanged and still half-armed: EMA100 reclaimed (404.25 vs 398.77) but NO bullish-family print at conviction >=65. Realized - (cost 438.02, -7.71%). Action range 399.18-409.32 (close +- 0.25 ATR). Execute Mon 2026-08-03 open, reprice if the open gaps >~1.5% (L8). |\n| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | 476.15 | SELL 30% | 476.15 | 475.00 | n/a | n/a | 481.46 (+1.1%) | Cutting a third of the AMD position ahead of Tuesday's Q2 report, keeping. Friday told us something: the stock opened +5.1% at 510.28, ran to 515.62, then sold off all day to close at 476.15 - the session low, -7.7% off its own high, on heavy volume. A rally made and wholly rejected inside one session is a confirmed lower high. With the shares -27.7% from their June record, trading near 90x forward earnings, and a binary earnings print two sessions away, carrying the full position is a sizing risk we do not need to take. The core stays because the fundamental setup is genuinely strong - guidance of (+46% y/y) with server CPU revenue expected up more than 70%. BASIS: CLAUDE.md sec9 signal degradation + USC-5 - confirmed lower high (the exact carve-out sec9's catalyst-aware hold reserves for a trim inside a <=5-session earnings window, and the condition the 07-30 card cited as ABSENT), 2nd consecutive NoTrade cv0, and a dead 12wk forward view (498..46 = +1.12%, below the 1.02x threshold; ADR-0012 tick-(c) applied as a deterioration marker). The 475.00 trail was NOT breached - intraday low 475.76 (within), close held it by - so the written full-exit escalation does NOT fire and is not claimed. Loss-control, NOT a profit-take: PROFIT_ARMED is the 3rd consecutive FALSE ARM (Gain_ATR -0.90, T12_Progress 98.90 on a -7.74% loss). ONE TIER only - the optional_trim counterfactual (n=4, median withheld 1wk -0.9%, 'cost') supports de-risking but argues one tier; G2 suppresses the valuation-amplify that would bump on MoS_FV -15.00 (DCF vs is a broken artifact on a 45%-growth name) so val_adj 0. Structure: below EMA5/10/20/50 and VWAP -7.14%, still +11.9% over EMA100 and +37.7% over EMA200 - broken intermediate trend inside an intact long-term one, which is why this is a trim and not an exit. TRAIL DELIBERATELY NOT RATCHETED into the binary print. ESCALATION STANDS for the retained : a close below 475.00 re-fires the full exit at the next open, no re-litigation. Realized on the tranche - (52 x -39.93, -7.74%). Action range 465.04-487.26 (close +- 0.25 ATR). Execute Mon 2026-08-03 open, reprice if the open gaps >~1.5% (L8). |\n| QCOM | Qualcomm Incorporated | 147.61 | WATCH | 147.61 | 131.76 | n/a | 171.59 (+16.2%) | 84.14 (-43.0%) | Passing on Qualcomm. It has been the closest thing to a buy on this board for three sessions, and this week every reason for that interest broke at once. The 07-29 quarterly report missed on earnings (vs) and, more importantly, guided next quarter to -2.25 against a consensus - roughly a 10% cut - with handset revenue down 20% and management pointing to industry-wide cost inflation in wafers, packaging and memory. The shares have closed lower five sessions running and now trade below every moving average. Our own valuation refresh cut its estimated worth below the current price and flagged the quality screen as failing. Auto revenue growing 61% and a called handset bottom make this interesting again later, not now. REJECT BASIS (all four independent): (1) adj conviction 54 is 11 under the 65 floor and WATCH is not an actionable label; conviction has TURNED DOWN, reversing the rising-conviction case cited on 07-30. (2) HARD QUALITY GATE - Quality_Pass flipped True->False on the freshly regenerated fairvalue (F-Score 6, Quality_Rank; the gate blocks new entries outright. (3) The DCF anchor collapsed ->, now BELOW the close - the valuation cushion that justified the earlier interest has been withdrawn by the model itself; val_adj -4 on MoS_FV -0.80. (4) L6 in the down direction - fresh post-earnings guidance cut; plus Target_12Week 84.14 = -43.0% on a non-bearish row (systemic finding #4), RSI 28.87, VWAP distance -13.96%. Re-arm trigger: a PullbackBuy_VWAP reprint (L1) OR promotion to BUY at conviction >=65 WITH the quality gate passing. Logged direction:none so the counterfactual grader prices the pass. |\n\n_Track record: 13 graded decisions · 1-week calibration -0.548._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.",
      "date_published": "2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z",
      "tags": [
        "ussemicon",
        "us",
        "eod"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ussemicon-2026-07-30",
      "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ussemicon/2026-07-30/",
      "title": "US Semiconductors — 2026-07-30",
      "summary": "EOD 2026-07-10",
      "content_text": "## USSEMICON End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-07-30\n\nEOD 2026-07-10\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) | 403.31 | SELL ALL | 403.31 | 375.56 | n/a | n/a | 341.79 (-15.3%) | Selling the whole TSMC position and taking the loss. The trading signal has said 'no trade, conviction zero' in five of the last six sessions, and the model's twelve-week outlook has been negative for eight sessions running - it currently points 15% below today's price. That is not a forward view a position earns its place with. Today's 7.6% jump was a sector-wide bounce on Microsoft's strong cloud results, not a change in TSMC's own setup, and the coverage of that bounce warns it can reverse just as fast. TSMC remains the best business in this book - record quarterly profit up 77%, capital spending raised to -64bn, revenue guided above +40% - and if the rally extends this will look like a poor exit. We are selling the signal, not the company, and the rally at least lets us leave at a materially better price than the level we first committed to. The cash stays earmarked for the next semiconductor setup that clears the bar, TSMC included. OPERATIONAL: completes the exit decided 07-27, re-decided 07-28 and 07-29, unfilled each time (executor stalled since 07-18); fills at ~403.31 vs the 07-29 reference 374.67, recovering of the delay. BASIS IS STATED PRECISELY: the 375.56 hard stop is RECLAIMED (+7.39%), so L2 does NOT fire today and is not claimed - the basis is the CLAUDE.md 9 sustained-NoTrade clause (cv0 on 07-23/24/27/28/30; the single interruption, ReversalUp_Oversold HOLD cv55 on 07-29, has already decayed back to cv0 exactly as the last card argued) plus the 8-session negative 12wk at -15.25%. Written re-entry trigger checked and only HALF met: EMA100 reclaimed (403.31 vs 398.64) but NO bullish-family print at all. Structure improved but still below EMA20 412.41 / EMA50 415.30 / VWAP 414.79. PROFIT_ARMED = 16th CONSECUTIVE FALSE ARM (Gain_ATR -1.74, T12_Progress 118.00 on a -7.92% loss): loss-control, not a profit-take, so the ADR-0012 never-100% cap does not apply. G2 suppresses valuation-amplify (broken DCF) -> val_adj 0, no tier bump, 9 amplify-only respected. G1/G3 do not block (no bullish signal, no positive forward view). Estimates: 1wk/4wk n/a (a NoTrade row prints no Target_Price so the f=0.30 interpolation has no anchor, L5); 12wk 341.79 (-15.25%), exceeds the DCF anchor. Action range 398.32-408.30 (close +- 0.25 ATR, ATR 19.95). Realized -; -book-to-date on TSM incl. the 07-18 leg. L3/USC-5 dispositive against re-litigating a thrice-committed exit on one sector-beta session (optional_trim counterfactual: median withheld 4wk -13.7%). Re-entry: bullish-family print at conviction >=65 (EMA100 condition already met). |\n| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | 485.39 | HOLD | 485.39 | 475.00 | n/a | n/a | 498.03 (+2.6%) | Holding AMD and cancelling yesterday's decision to sell it. That sale rested on one thing - the share price closing decisively below the 475 level we had committed to protect - and today's 13% rally has taken the price back above that line. The loss on the position has narrowed from 17% to 6%, the twelve-week outlook has turned positive again, and momentum has recovered from deeply oversold. With second-quarter results due on 4 August, our normal practice is to hold a position that is not broken through the announcement rather than sell into it, and we are deliberately leaving the stop where it is rather than tightening it into a binary event. If the shares close back below 475, the full sale goes ahead at the next opening with no further debate. OPERATIONAL: 07-29 full exit ( @ ~429.56, execute_on 07-30) WITHDRAWN - basis invalidated, not merely unfilled. Close 485.39 is +2.19% ABOVE the committed 475.00 trail; monitor reports ZERO breaches. Unreal -5.95% (was -16.76%); 12wk 498.03 = +2.60% (troughed 440.28); RSI 35..51; reclaimed EMA5 478.29, sits -0.27% under EMA50 486.69, well above EMA100 424.48 / EMA200 344.61. Label is NoTrade cv0 but it is the FIRST such print (07-27/28/29 were AVOID), so the 9 sustained-degradation clause that carries TSM does not carry AMD. Catalyst doctrine now aligns rather than being overruled: AMD Q2 08-04 AMC is 3 trading days out, inside the <=5-session hold window, and the 'decisive stop break' exception that overrode it on 07-28/29 has been reclaimed; no confirmed lower high. Stop deliberately NOT ratcheted (tightening into a binary print is a coin-flip stop-out). ESCALATION WRITTEN DOWN: a close back below 475.00 re-fires the full exit at the next open, no re-litigation. PROFIT_ARMED = 2nd FALSE ARM (Gain_ATR -0.67, T12_Progress 97.46 on a -5.95% loss). G2 suppresses valuation (broken DCF). Unrealized - (MV vs cost). 1wk/4wk n/a (NoTrade row prints no Target_Price); model band Est_Low 395.78 / Est_High 544.33. Honest counter-case recorded: a stand-down after a +13% day sits close to 'hoping', and USC-5 warns against carrying a loser through a print - the distinction applied is USC-5's own (broken technical -> de-risk; reclaimed technical with a positive forward view -> trail). |\n| AMKR | Amkor Technology | 48.26 | WATCH | 48.26 | 33.60 | n/a | 62.49 (+29.5%) | 27.51 (-43.0%) | Passing on the only buy signal on the board. Amkor beat on its second-quarter results - earnings of 70 cents against the 48 cents expected, revenue up 26% - but guided the current quarter below what analysts wanted, and the shares fell 6.5% on the news and then 34% in four sessions before today's bounce. Buying a one-day rebound inside a fresh guidance disappointment is the trade this book has already learned not to take. The company also fails our quality screen outright - it has the weakest financial-strength score of the twenty names we follow - and the model's own twelve-week projection for the shares sits 43% BELOW today's price, which contradicts the buy label on the same row. Two brokers upgraded into the fall with targets and the packaging business has real AI exposure, so if this is the low we will have passed on a good entry. It is not one this framework can take. OPERATIONAL: rejected on five independent grounds - (1) adj conviction 60 is 5 pts under the 65 floor (cv70, val_adj -10 from MoS_FV -2.24 clamped from -11, bias 0); (2) HARD QUALITY GATE, Quality_Pass=False on a -0 name = new entry, F_Score 4 (lowest of 20), Composite_Rank 15.7, Quality_Rank 16, ROIC 7.7%, FCF yield 1.02% - USC-3: a gate override is never a licence to chase; (3) Target_12Week 27.51 vs a 48.26 close = -43.0% on a bullish BUY row, the same internal contradiction that got GLW rejected 07-28 and vindicated in one session (systemic finding #5); (4) L6 in the down direction - fresh post-earnings guidance gap-down (Q3 guided vs consensus, Communications declining, Android -20% on memory supply); (5) structure contradicts the label - below ALL six EMAs (5/10/20/50/100/200), VWAP distance -19.83%, Pillar_Consensus 'Consolidation_Bearish' ON A BUY ROW, pillars 36/37/35, and a risk-defined stop at 33.60 = -30.4% (2.08 ATR). Logged so the counterfactual grader prices the pass. Re-arm trigger: a PullbackBuy_VWAP print (L1) with the quality gate passing - not another oversold-reversal bounce. |\n\n_Track record: 12 graded decisions · 1-week calibration -0.548._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.",
      "date_published": "2026-07-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "tags": [
        "ussemicon",
        "us",
        "eod"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ussemicon-2026-07-28",
      "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ussemicon/2026-07-28/",
      "title": "US Semiconductors — 2026-07-28",
      "summary": "EOD 2026-07-10",
      "content_text": "## USSEMICON End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-07-28\n\nEOD 2026-07-10\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | 454.62 | SELL ALL | 454.62 | 475.00 | 456.30 (+0.4%) | 460.21 (+1.2%) | 514.61 (+13.2%) | Exit AMD in full. The stop line the prior verdict committed to in writing - a close below 475.00 completes the exit - has now been hit decisively: AMD fell 8.15% to 454.62, which is 4.29% and roughly half an ATR below that trail, versus the marginal 0.14 ATR nick that was correctly held a week ago. Price also closed below its 50-day average for the first time in this decline, and the signal reprinted a bearish RallySell_BearTrend AVOID for a second straight session, leaving the position 11.9% underwater. News confirms the character of the move rather than contradicting it: AI chip names fell hard on renewed questions about whether AI capital spending can earn its return, with AMD's 150x trailing earnings multiple singled out and the selling described as forced and leveraged - a continuation mechanic, not a washout. AMD's own business case (the MI-series ramp) is intact and the model's 12-week view of 514.61 is still 13% above today's price, so this exit gives up modelled upside; it is taken because a written stop trigger fired and this book's record on re-arguing fired triggers is poor. OPERATIONAL: supersedes and escalates the 07-27 30% trim that never filled - the auto-executor has not run since 2026-07-18, so faithful execution of the committed sequence is the whole 172, not a re-queued 52. Learnings applied: L2/L3 (execute the written de-risk promptly), L8 (fills at the next open; reprice if the open gaps >~1.5%), USC-5 (broken technical -> de-risk to the technical's own tier; do not hold an oversized loser into a binary print). Catalyst noted and overruled: AMD Q2 earnings 08-04 AMC is 5 sessions out, inside the catalyst-aware-hold window, but that doctrine names a decisive stop break as its own exception and protects winners, not a -11.9% position. Gates: G1 n/a (not a fresh breakout at cv>=80); G3 does not block (family is bearish); G2 suppresses the valuation amplify on a broken 175.40 DCF anchor, so MoS_FV -17.14 gives no tier bump and the exit is purely signal-based. Not armed (Gain_ATR -1.48) - loss-control, not a profit-take, so the never-100%-from-a-profit-take cap does not apply. Estimates use f=0.30 per L5 (calib_1w -0.548 degenerate). Note the bearish-family artifact: printed Stop_Price 493.48 and Target_Price 460.21 both sit ABOVE the 454.62 close and must not be adopted as levels. Realized -vs the 516.075 cost. Re-entry trigger: a PullbackBuy_VWAP or ReversalUp_Oversold print with conviction >= 70 AND a reclaim of EMA50 (~489); do not re-enter on the earnings gap itself (L6). |\n| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) | 392.31 | SELL ALL | 392.31 | 375.56 | n/a | n/a | 346.32 (-11.7%) | Exit Taiwan Semiconductor in full - completing the exit the prior verdict already decided but which never reached the market. The technical case has only deteriorated: the stock printed no-trade with zero conviction for a fourth consecutive session, the 12-week view has slid again to 346.32 (11.7% below the 392.31 close, deepening from -8.9%), and the loss of the 100-day average is now confirmed on top of the 20- and 50-day, leaving the 200-day at 362.93 as the last structural support 7.5% below. The position is 10.4% underwater and traded as low as 383.03 intraday. TSMC's fundamentals remain the strongest in the book - record Q2 revenue of, a 2026 guide raised past 40% growth, and a fresh US manufacturing commitment - and that is the honest counter-case; but those facts are three weeks priced, they were equally true when the trigger first fired, and constructive fundamentals do not override a technical trigger that has now fired four times. News is neutral with no fresh catalyst to demote the exit. OPERATIONAL: supersedes the 07-27 full-exit card that never filled (auto-executor last ran 2026-07-18); the delay alone cost roughly 1.70% (on) as the price slid 399..31. Learnings applied: L3 (execute the de-risk promptly - this is now its third session of slippage), L4 (settled close authoritative), L8 (fills at the next open; reprice if the open gaps >~1.5%), USC-5 (a bullish fundamental story is not a reason to keep an oversized position through a broken technical). Valuation is amplify-only and suppressed here by G2 - the 45.28 DCF anchor is a broken artifact - so MoS_FV -14.19 contributes no tier bump and does not originate the sell. PROFIT_ARMED prints for the fourteenth consecutive session and is again a FALSE ARM (Gain_ATR -2.81, T12_Progress_Pct 113.28 on a loss): this is loss-control, not an ADR-0012 profit-take. No 1wk or 4wk estimate is derivable because a no-trade row prints no Target_Price. Realized -vs the 438.02 cost (-book-to-date on TSM). Re-entry trigger: a bullish-family print (not NoTrade) with conviction >= 65 AND a reclaim of EMA100 (~399). |\n| GLW | Corning Incorporated | 126.01 | WATCH | 126.01 | 86.79 | 138.39 (+9.8%) | 167.28 (+32.8%) | 71.83 (-43.0%) | Passed on Corning despite it being the day's only buy signal and the top-ranked one. The technical read is a reversal-from-oversold at high conviction, but the case against it is overwhelming: the stock has just gapped down on its Q2 report - revenue and earnings beat, but the third-quarter guide came in light and growth in the optical-communications business decelerated from 81% to 36% to 32% year over year - and it now sits roughly 55% below where it traded a month ago, with analysts openly re-rating it as an ex-supplier story. Buying a fresh post-earnings dislocation with a structural growth question attached is a falling knife, not a reversal. On top of that the company fails the quality screen outright (weak free-cash-flow yield and returns on capital, the worst quality rank in this book), which blocks any new position on its own, and it screens expensive on intrinsic value even after the crash. OPERATIONAL: four independent strikes - (1) hard quality gate Quality_Pass=False blocks a new entry; USC-3 forbids overriding the gate for a chase-family buy; (2) val_adj -10 from MoS_FV -9.27, and G2 does NOT suppress it (GLW is a ~1% TTM revenue grower with a usable 52.49 DCF anchor, not a broken hyper-growth artifact), taking conviction 82 -> adj 72 - above the 65 floor, so the gate rather than the floor is what kills it; (3) news OVERRIDES per Step 6-7; (4) the row is internally contradictory - a bullish BUY carrying Target_12Week 71.83, i.e. -43.0% below the 126.01 close, against a +32.8% 4wk Target_Price, with a stop 31.1% (2.56 ATR) away (systemic finding #6). Logged as a graded pass so the counterfactual layer prices the no-chase decision. Re-arm trigger: a PullbackBuy_VWAP print (L1) with the quality gate passing and Target_12Week turning positive. |\n\n_Track record: 8 graded decisions · 1-week calibration -0.548._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.",
      "date_published": "2026-07-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "tags": [
        "ussemicon",
        "us",
        "eod"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ussemicon-2026-07-27",
      "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ussemicon/2026-07-27/",
      "title": "US Semiconductors — 2026-07-27",
      "summary": "EOD 2026-07-10",
      "content_text": "## USSEMICON End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-07-27\n\nEOD 2026-07-10\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) | 399.09 | SELL ALL | 399.09 | 375.56 | n/a | n/a | 363.69 (-8.9%) | Exit Taiwan Semiconductor in full. The technical case has fully broken down: the stock has now printed NO TRADE with zero conviction for a third straight session, the 12-week view has slid to 363.69 (-8.9% below the 399.09 close), and price has lost its 100-day moving average on top of the 20- and 50-day - leaving the position 8.89% underwater. This is the exact third-NO-TRADE escalation the prior verdict committed to in writing, so it executes rather than gets re-argued. TSMC's fundamentals remain the strongest in the book (record Q2 revenue of, management guiding AI demand strong through 2029-30) and the 07-27 selloff was a margin-driven, Samsung-triggered flush across the whole chip complex rather than anything company-specific - but constructive fundamentals do not override a fired technical trigger, and forced deleveraging with more to come is not a bottom to hold into. OPERATIONAL: this card supersedes and completes the unfilled 07-24 30% trim - the auto-executor has not run since 07-18, so that order never filled and the book carried the full 211 for three extra sessions; sell the whole 211, not a re-queued 63 (L3/USC-6 - execute a written trigger promptly). Honest counter-case, overruled: price is still +6.3% above the 375.56 stop and +10.2% above EMA200 (362.01), so this is NOT an L2 stop-break exit - it is a committed-trigger exit. Valuation-amplify suppressed (G2, broken DCF anchor on a ~45% grower); section-9 amplify-only means valuation never originates this. PROFIT_ARMED prints for the THIRTEENTH consecutive session and is again a FALSE ARM (Gain_ATR -2.46 on a loser) - this is a loss-control exit, NOT a profit-take, and the ADR-0012 fire rule is not its basis (learnings advisory (a)). Volume (US lot 1), proceeds realized -Estimates: 1wk/4wk n/a (a NO TRADE row prints no Target_Price, so the f=0.30 interpolation has no anchor); 12wk 363.69 (-8.87%) is the drift stepped out of. Action range 395.13-403.05 (close +-0.25 ATR, ATR 15.85). Execute at the Tue 2026-07-28 open; reprice if the open gaps >~1.5%; grade from the execution date/price (L8). |\n| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | 494.95 | SELL 30% | 494.95 | 475.00 | 484.53 (-2.1%) | 460.21 (-7.0%) | 609.63 (+23.2%) | Trim AMD by 30% and keep a 120-share core. The trailing stop that was deliberately held through last week's marginal nick has now broken decisively: AMD fell 5.17% to 494.95, which is 0.83 ATR below the 526.88 trail (versus 0.14 ATR on 07-24) and also below the 504.18 model stop the prior verdict named as a front-line exit - and the signal itself flipped from the bullish FailedBreakdown_Up family to RallySell_BearTrend, taking the label from HOLD to AVOID with conviction easing. News confirms the character of the move: Samsung's earnings triggered a complex-wide flush (Intel and Applied Materials -10%, SMH -4.06%) driven by margined, forced sellers, which tends to continue rather than snap back - while AMD's own MI450 ramp and roadmap are undamaged. That combination - broken trail, bearish signal, intact business - is a partial de-risk, not an exit: the 12-week view is still 609.63, roughly 23% above spot, and price still holds the 50-, 100- and 200-day averages. OPERATIONAL: 3 of the 4 committed 07-24 front-line triggers fired (confirming/decisive close <526.88; close <504.18 model stop; bearish family flip). The 4th (12wk turning negative) did NOT fire, which is why this is one tier (30%), not a full exit. Gate check: G3 no longer blocks (it protects a BULLISH signal with a positive forward - the signal is now bearish); G1 n/a (not a fresh breakout at cv>=80); G2 governs only the valuation path. NOT armed (Gain_ATR -0.55, no PROFIT_ARMED, -4.09% underwater) so this is loss-control, not a profit-take. Earnings 08-04 AMC is 6 trading days out - OUTSIDE the <=5-session catalyst-aware hold window, and that doctrine protects winners into a print, not an underwater name with a broken trail. Volume 0.30 x 172 = 51.6 -> (US lot 1); size_mod 1.0x - G2 suppresses the MoS_FV -17.14 amplify so NO tier bump. Proceeds realized -NEW STOP on the retained 120 = 475.00 (2.0x ATR chandelier off the 552.33 swing high); the broken 526.88 trail now sits above spot, and the model's printed Stop_Price 547.33 is a bearish-family stop ABOVE spot - do NOT adopt it. Estimates: 1wk 484.53 (-2.11%) via f=0.30 (L5 mandated, calib_1w -0.548 degenerate, only 4 graded buys); 4wk 460.21 (-7.02%) = the bearish family's own downside target; 12wk 609.63 (+23.17%) - note the 4wk and 12wk point opposite ways, which is precisely why a third is trimmed rather than the whole; WARNING: 12wk exceeds the DCF anchor - projection assumes growth beyond priced-in. Action range 485.29-504.61. Escalation on the retained 120: a close below EMA50 490.48 is the next deterioration tick; a close below 475.00, a second bearish print with the 12wk turning negative (L2), or a SELL-REDUCE completes the exit. Execute at the Tue 2026-07-28 open; reprice if the open gaps >~1.5% (L8). |\n\n_Track record: 6 graded decisions · 1-week calibration -0.548._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.",
      "date_published": "2026-07-27T00:00:00.000Z",
      "tags": [
        "ussemicon",
        "us",
        "eod"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ussemicon-2026-07-24",
      "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ussemicon/2026-07-24/",
      "title": "US Semiconductors — 2026-07-24",
      "summary": "EOD 2026-07-10",
      "content_text": "## USSEMICON End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-07-24\n\nEOD 2026-07-10\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) | 403.41 | SELL 30% | 403.41 | 375.56 | n/a | n/a | 377.50 (-6.4%) | Trim the retained TSM core 30% (63 of ->) as the exit case matured to the committed 2-consecutive-NO-TRADE threshold with a decisively-negative forward view - a measured, signal-based loss-control de-risk, not a full exit and not valuation-driven. TSM printed NO TRADE cv0 for the second straight scan (07-24 and 07-25), the exact wait-line the prior EOD named; close 403.41 (-2.93%), now -7.90% underwater, 12wk slid to 377.50 (-6.4% vs spot, decisively negative), and price has lost EMA50 (419.29) and is testing EMA100 (399.11). Kept to one tier (30%), not a full exit, because the 375.56 stop (+7.4% cushion) and EMA200 (361.58) backstops are intact, fundamentals are strong (record Q2 +77%, FY26 guide raised to >40% - an AI-capex sentiment de-rating, not a crack), and the counterfactual optional_trim aggregate cost a median -0.9% at 1wk. Operational: valuation-amplify suppressed (G2, broken DCF 45.28 on a ~45% grower) so no tier bump; section-9 amplify-only means valuation cannot originate the sell (it is signal-based). PROFIT_ARMED prints for the twelfth consecutive session and is again a FALSE ARM (Gain_ATR -2.28 on a loser; T12-progress arm 106.9% off a broken anchor) - this trim is a loss-control exit, NOT a profit-take, and the fire rule is not its basis (learnings advisory (a)). Estimates (sell): 1wk/4wk n/a (NO TRADE row has no trade target), 12wk 377.50 (-6.4%) is the drift the trimmed third steps out of; f=0.30 mandated (L5) but inapplicable without a target. Volume 0.30*211 = 63.3 -> (US lot 1), proceeds Execute at the Mon 2026-07-27 open (reprice if the open gaps >~1.5%; grade from execution date/price per L8). Full-exit escalation on the : close <375.56, close <EMA200 ~361.58, a 3rd NO TRADE, or a SELL-REDUCE reprint. |\n| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | 521.95 | HOLD | 516.08 | 526.88 | n/a | 593.04 (+14.9%) | 674.61 (+30.7%) | Hold AMD and keep the 526.88 trail unactioned - the committed trail was nicked but only by 0.14 ATR on a broad sector down-day, a non-decisive breach that G3 forbids trimming on. The winner eased into the semi selloff: close 521.95 (-3.29%), conviction (a 7-pt ease, not a >=20 collapse), but the position is still +1.14% in the money with a 12-week view of 674.61 (+29.3%) and a bullish FailedBreakdown_Up family. The 526.88 trail is breached by close (521.95, -0.94%) and the monitor flags it, but the break is only 0.14 ATR (ATR 35.55) with price still well above EMA50 (490.30), EMA100 (420.95) and EMA200 (338.64) - a clean uptrend nicked by sector beta, not a decisive break - so the trail is held, not lowered (chandelier ratchets up only; the model's own Stop_Price 504.18 sits far below). News confirms the hold: this is a broad risk-off rotation (SOX in a bear market, chip cap -3T since 06-22), not an AMD-specific breakdown, and per section-9 thematic weakness is not a sell basis. Operational: not armed (Gain_ATR 0.17 < 3.0, T12 progress 77.4% < 90, no PROFIT_ARMED) so ADR-0012 profit-take does not engage; no Exit_Warning; G3 blocks any trim outright on a +29% forward. Front-line exit watch: a confirming/decisive close below 526.88, a close below the model stop 504.18, a conviction collapse >=20, or the 12wk turning negative is the valid exit basis (L2). val_adj 0 (G2: DCF 175 on a ~45% grower is a broken anchor; Quality_Pass False never blocks a held name). |\n\n_Track record: 5 graded decisions · 1-week calibration -0.548._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.",
      "date_published": "2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z",
      "tags": [
        "ussemicon",
        "us",
        "eod"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ussemicon-2026-07-23",
      "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ussemicon/2026-07-23/",
      "title": "US Semiconductors — 2026-07-23",
      "summary": "EOD 2026-07-10",
      "content_text": "## USSEMICON End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-07-23\n\nEOD 2026-07-10\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | 539.69 | HOLD | 516.08 | 526.88 | n/a | 613.06 (+18.8%) | 714.18 (+38.4%) | Hold AMD - the winner eased but there is no sell case, and the raised trail is held, not lowered. The stock pulled back 2.29% to 539.69 and conviction slipped (an 8-point ease, not a >=20 collapse tick), but the position is still +4.58% in the money with a 12-week view of 714.18 (about +32% above spot) and a bullish FailedBreakdown_Up family. News confirms the hold: the Advancing AI 2026 keynote landed 07-22/23 without a negative reaction and Rosenblatt/UBS raised targets to 665/700 (Strong Buy). Operational: not armed (Gain_ATR 0.64 < 3.0, T12 progress 75.6% < 90, no PROFIT_ARMED) so the ADR-0012 profit-take does not engage; no Exit_Warning; G3 blocks any trim outright on a +32% forward view. The model printed Stop_Price 521.35, BELOW the 07-22 committed trail of 526.88 - a trailing stop ratchets up only, so the trail is HELD at 526.88, not lowered; close 539.69 sits +2.43% above it. A decisive close below 526.88 is the valid exit basis (L2). No add queued (USC-4: pyramids must be reclaim-gated buy-stops; the row prints no entry and the day was down). val_adj 0 (G2: DCF 175 on a ~45% grower is a broken anchor, and Quality_Pass False never blocks a held name). |\n| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) | 415.58 | HOLD | 438.02 | 375.56 | n/a | n/a | 399.05 (-8.9%) | Hold the retained TSM core - the exit case keeps softening but no signal-based trigger has fired. TSM eased 1.34% to 415.58 and printed NO TRADE cv0 (from AVOID cv49), now -5.12% underwater, with the 12-week view down to 399.05 (about -4% under spot). But price is still +10.7% above the 375.56 stop and above EMA200 (~360), this is a single NO TRADE (not 2 consecutive), and no defined exit trigger has fired (no close below 375.56, no close below EMA200, no SELL-REDUCE reprint). News is constructive on fundamentals (record Q2 net +77%, FY26 revenue guide raised to above 40%); the -15% monthly weakness is 2nm-ramp margin de-rating, not a fundamental crack, so the amplify-only doctrine (section 9) does not originate a sell. Operational: stop 375.56 UNCHANGED. PROFIT_ARMED prints for the ELEVENTH consecutive session and is again a FALSE ARM (Gain_ATR -1.47 on a position 5.12% underwater; the T12-progress arm reads 104.1% off a broken anchor) - the profit-take fire rule is explicitly NOT applied, even though mechanical tick-(c) dead-12wk would otherwise fire, which is exactly why the false-arm gate matters (learnings advisory (a)). Do NOT adopt the printed Stop_Price 454.65 (bearish-family stop above spot). Further-exit triggers: close below 375.56, close below EMA200 ~360, a SELL-REDUCE reprint, or a decisive lower close with the 12wk decisively negative; the conviction collapse to 0 keeps TSM on watch. val_adj 0 (broken DCF 45.28 vs a ~416 price). |\n\n_Track record: 5 graded decisions · 1-week calibration -0.548._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.",
      "date_published": "2026-07-23T00:00:00.000Z",
      "tags": [
        "ussemicon",
        "us",
        "eod"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ussemicon-2026-07-22",
      "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ussemicon/2026-07-22/",
      "title": "US Semiconductors — 2026-07-22",
      "summary": "EOD 2026-07-10",
      "content_text": "## USSEMICON End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-07-22\n\nEOD 2026-07-10\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | 552.33 | HOLD | 516.08 | 526.88 | n/a | 628.19 (+21.7%) | 733.54 (+42.1%) | Hold AMD and lock in the winner with a raised trail. The stock firmed to 552.33 (+1.45%) for a fifth straight strengthening session, conviction climbed, and the position is now +7.03% in the money with the 12-week view lifted to 733.54, roughly 33% above spot - there is no sell case of any kind. AMD's Advancing AI 2026 keynote (Lisa Su, MI450X/MI500 roadmap and customer names, Moscone) landed 07-22/23 without a negative reaction, on top of the banked Microsoft Azure Helios win and price-target raises to /Operational: not armed (Gain_ATR 0.96 < 3.0, T12 progress 75.3% < 90, no PROFIT_ARMED) so the ADR-0012 profit-take rule does not engage; no Exit_Warning; G3 blocks any trim outright on a +33% forward view. The 07-21 COMMITTED post-keynote ratchet now executes: raise the trail 494..88 (the model's own ratcheted Stop_Price, above the 522.60 committed floor) - locks +2.1% vs cost while leaving ~4.6% of room below the close. A decisive close below 526.88 is now the valid exit basis (L2); next session may chandelier the trail off the post-event high if it prints higher. No add queued (USC-4: pyramids must be reclaim-gated buy-stops, and the row prints no entry). val_adj 0 (G2/note-B: DCF on a ~45% grower is a broken anchor). |\n| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) | 421.21 | HOLD | 438.02 | 375.56 | n/a | n/a | 406.72 (-7.1%) | Hold the retained TSM core - the exit case is softening but no signal-based trigger has fired. TSM eased 0.80% to 421.21, conviction slipped, and the 12-week view ticked down to 406.72 (~1.1% under spot), so the exit case that had un-matured on 07-21 has partly re-matured. But price is still +12.2% above the 375.56 stop and above EMA200, the label is AVOID on a bearish FailedBreakout_Down family (neither a buy nor a SELL-REDUCE), and none of the defined exit triggers has fired. The 50% de-risk was already executed 07-17 at; what remains is the defined core. Operational: stop 375.56 UNCHANGED. PROFIT_ARMED prints for the TENTH consecutive session and is again a FALSE ARM (Gain_ATR -1.01 on a position 3.84% underwater; the T12-progress arm reads 103.6% off a broken anchor) - the profit-take fire rule is explicitly NOT applied, even though mechanical tick-(c) 'dead 12wk' would otherwise fire, which is exactly why the false-arm gate matters (learnings advisory (a)). Do NOT adopt the printed Stop_Price 454.65 - that is the bearish-family stop above spot, meaningless for a long. Further-exit triggers: close <375.56, close <EMA200 ~360, a SELL-REDUCE reprint, or a decisive lower close with the 12wk decisively negative; the -15 conviction slip puts TSM on watch for next session. val_adj 0 (broken DCF vs a price); amplify-only doctrine means valuation cannot originate this sell anyway. |\n\n_Track record: 5 graded decisions · 1-week calibration -0.548._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.",
      "date_published": "2026-07-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "tags": [
        "ussemicon",
        "us",
        "eod"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ussemicon-2026-07-21",
      "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ussemicon/2026-07-21/",
      "title": "US Semiconductors — 2026-07-21",
      "summary": "EOD 2026-07-10",
      "content_text": "## USSEMICON End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-07-21\n\nEOD 2026-07-10\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | 544.43 | HOLD | 516.08 | 494.30 | n/a | 621.96 (+20.5%) | 709.86 (+37.5%) | Hold AMD and let the winner run into its own catalyst. The stock jumped 8.1% to 544.43 on the semiconductor sector's sharpest rebound since its worst week in over a year, carrying the position from 2.4% underwater to +5.5% in the money one session before AMD's Advancing AI 2026 keynote, where Lisa Su is expected to detail the MI450X and MI500 accelerator roadmap and, more importantly for the stock, name customers - on top of the already-banked Microsoft Azure Helios win and price-target raises to (Rosenblatt) and (UBS). The signal flipped back off AVOID to HOLD cv64 and the 12-week view is 709.86, 30% above spot, so there is no sell case of any kind here. Operational: not armed (Gain_ATR 0.73 vs the 3.0 bar, T12 progress 76.7% < 90, no PROFIT_ARMED) so the ADR-0012 profit-take rule does not engage; no Exit_Warning; G3 blocks any trim outright on a strongly positive forward view. Stop held at 494.30 UNCHANGED for one more session - the model has ratcheted its own stop up to 522.60, but tightening to ~4% into a binary keynote invites the noise stop-out US-3/USC-5 warns against. COMMITTED: ratchet the trail to 522.60 (or a chandelier off the post-event high, whichever is higher) once Advancing AI concludes. A decisive close below 494.30 remains the valid exit basis (L2). No add queued despite the news - USC-4 requires a reclaim-gated buy-stop, never a market buy into a bounce, and the row prints no entry. val_adj 0 (G2/note-B: DCF on a ~45% grower is a broken anchor). |\n| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) | 424.61 | HOLD | 438.02 | 375.56 | n/a | n/a | 407.07 (-7.1%) | Hold the retained TSM core - the exit case that was maturing has un-matured. TSM rose 5.5% to 424.61 as chip stocks rebounded on Taiwan's June US export orders (+83.6% YoY) and strong Korean export data, cutting the unrealized loss from -8.15% to -3.06% and, for the first time in six sessions, revising the 12-week view UP.07). The fundamentals underneath remain the strongest in the book: Q2 EPS (+74.5% YoY), revenue (+33.7%), and FY26 capex raised to -64B. The label is AVOID cv64, but that conviction sits on a bearish FailedBreakout_Down family - it is neither a buy nor a SELL-REDUCE, and price is 13.0% above the 375.56 stop and back above EMA50 as well as EMA200 (360.30), so no L2 leg is present. The 50% de-risk already executed on 07-17 at; what remains is the defined core, and not dumping it into Friday's rout low is now worth roughly + on the retained 211. Operational: stop 375.56 UNCHANGED. PROFIT_ARMED prints for the NINTH consecutive session and is again a FALSE ARM (Gain_ATR -0.74 on a position 3.06% underwater; the T12-progress arm reads 104.3% off a broken anchor) - the profit-take fire rule is explicitly NOT applied and the armed-to-trail-raise branch does not engage (learnings advisory (a)). Do NOT adopt the model's printed Stop_Price 461.09 - that is the bearish-family stop sitting above spot, meaningless for a long. Further-exit triggers: close <375.56, close <EMA200 360.30, a SELL-REDUCE reprint, or a decisive lower close with the 12wk back negative. val_adj 0 (broken DCF vs a price); amplify-only doctrine means valuation cannot originate this sell anyway. |\n\n_Track record: 4 graded decisions · 1-week calibration -0.548._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.",
      "date_published": "2026-07-21T00:00:00.000Z",
      "tags": [
        "ussemicon",
        "us",
        "eod"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ussemicon-2026-07-20",
      "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ussemicon/2026-07-20/",
      "title": "US Semiconductors — 2026-07-20",
      "summary": "EOD 2026-07-10",
      "content_text": "## USSEMICON End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-07-20\n\nEOD 2026-07-10\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | 503.57 | HOLD | 516.08 | 494.30 | n/a | n/a | 642.89 (+24.6%) | Hold AMD. The position firmed on real news: Microsoft Azure will AMD's Helios rackscale platform for large-scale AI inference, and both Rosenblatt (to) and UBS (to) raised price targets, lifting the stock 1.6% to 503.57 and back to +1.9% above the 494.30 stop. The signal prints AVOID on a failed-breakout read, but the 12-week view is still strongly positive (642.89, +27.7%) and the Advancing AI keynote lands 07-22 - so this is a catalyst-aware hold, not a trim. Valuation reads GROWTH_PRICED_IN but the DCF anchor is the known broken artifact for a ~45% grower, so val_adj is suppressed (note B / G2) and never originates a sell. Operational: stop 494.30 UNCHANGED - deliberately not tightened into a binary event keynote (noise stop-out risk) and not loosened; a decisive close below 494.30 is the valid exit basis (L2), though the positive 12wk argues trim-not-full-exit. Not armed (Gain_ATR -0.34, no PROFIT_ARMED) so no trail-raise branch. No news-driven add queued: the signal prints no entry, and USC-3/USC-4 require a signal and a reclaim-gated buy-stop, not a narrative market buy. |\n| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) | 402.30 | HOLD | 438.02 | 375.56 | n/a | n/a | 377.71 (-13.8%) | Hold the retained TSM core. The fundamentals are the strongest on the board - record Q2 revenue (+33.7% YoY) at 67.7% gross margin, FY26 growth guidance raised from 30% to above 40%, and an extra committed to Arizona (total) - yet the stock still sold off into the broad AI de-rate and sits 8.2% below cost. The technical is broken (NO TRADE, conviction 0, 12-week view eroding to 377.71, below EMA50) but not one exit trigger has fired: price actually rose 1.0% to 402.30 and remains 7.1% above the 375.56 stop and above EMA200. The 50% de-risk already executed on 07-17 at; what remains is the defined core riding intact fundamentals, so the right action today is none. Operational: stop 375.56 UNCHANGED. The row prints PROFIT_ARMED for the eighth straight session but it is a FALSE ARM (Gain_ATR -2.10 on an 8.15% loser; known defect, learnings advisory item (a)) - the ADR-0012 profit-take fire rule is explicitly NOT applied and the armed-to-trail-raise branch does not engage. Valuation val_adj suppressed (DCF vs a price is a broken anchor); amplify-only doctrine means it cannot originate this sell anyway. Further-exit triggers restated: close <375.56, close <EMA200 359.77, a SELL-REDUCE reprint, or a decisive lower close. |\n\n_Track record: 4 graded decisions · 1-week calibration -0.548._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.",
      "date_published": "2026-07-20T00:00:00.000Z",
      "tags": [
        "ussemicon",
        "us",
        "eod"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ussemicon-2026-07-18",
      "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ussemicon/2026-07-18/",
      "title": "US Semiconductors — 2026-07-18",
      "summary": "EOD 2026-07-10",
      "content_text": "## USSEMICON End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-07-18\n\nEOD 2026-07-10\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) | 398.37 | HOLD | 438.02 | 375.56 | n/a | 403.50 (-7.9%) | 383.29 (-12.5%) | Hold the retained 211 after the 07-17 50% de-risk executed at (well-timed ahead of Friday's further slide to 398.37). TSM prints AVOID cv49 (RallySell_BearTrend) with the model 12wk now negative (383.29, -3.8%) and -9.05% underwater on a 7th straight down day, but no defined sell trigger has fired: AVOID is not a SELL-REDUCE, and L2 needs a decisive stop break AND negative 12wk -- close 398.37 is +6.1% above the 375.56 structural stop and +11% above EMA200 (359.04), so the stop-break half is absent. News frames Friday's -7.3% as a sector-wide semi rout on an intact-fundamentals name (Q2 double-beat, FY26 guide >40%, PTs raised by DA Davidson/TD Cowen/Barclays) -- not a case to dump the remainder into the rout low. Already halved 07-17. Sharpened further-exit trigger: a close below EMA200 (359.04) or 375.56, or any SELL-REDUCE reprint / decisive lower close now that the 12wk is negative, completes the de-risk. PROFIT_ARMED spurious (underwater). val_adj 0 (G2, DCF blind). |\n| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | 495.76 | HOLD | 516.08 | 494.30 | n/a | 575.70 (+11.6%) | 649.73 (+25.9%) | Hold AMD 172. Signal HOLD cv46 (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D), close 495.76 (-3.94%) sits only +0.3% above the 494.30 structural stop, but the 12wk 649.73 (+31%) is strongly positive so L2 (stop-break AND negative 12wk) cannot trigger; not a REDUCE, not armed (Gain_ATR -0.51), no exit warning. News: the slide is the same sector rout, not a fundamental break (Goldman Buy BofA, +160% YTD). Advancing AI 07-22/23 (~2 sessions) -> catalyst-aware HOLD/trail through the event, no pre-trim; a decisive close below 494.30 remains a valid exit. Keep stop 494.30 (no ratchet down to the model's looser 460.21); the 539.68 line is retired to a re-arm trigger only. val_adj 0 (G2, DCF broken anchor). |\n\n_Track record: 4 graded decisions · 1-week calibration -0.548._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.",
      "date_published": "2026-07-18T00:00:00.000Z",
      "tags": [
        "ussemicon",
        "us",
        "eod"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ussemicon-2026-07-17",
      "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ussemicon/2026-07-17/",
      "title": "US Semiconductors — 2026-07-17",
      "summary": "EOD 2026-07-10",
      "content_text": "## USSEMICON End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-07-17\n\nEOD 2026-07-10\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) | 409.74 | SELL 50% | 409.74 | 375.56 | n/a | n/a | 411.26 (+0.4%) | Trim TSM by half: a record Q2 beat (rev +36% YoY, profit +77%, FY26 guide raised >40%) still sent the stock down ~3-4% on a raised -64B capex + margin worry, and the settled 07-16 close 409.74 is the post-print decider firing bearish. Signal escalated NO TRADE -> STRONG SELL - REDUCE (RallySell_BearTrend, Sell_Rank 1), the 12wk is dead (411.26, +0.4%), the name is -6.46% underwater, and the de-risk has gone unexecuted 4 straight sessions. Half, not full: still above EMA200 and the 375.56 stop, FY guide strong, 12wk not yet negative (no L2 full-exit basis). Escalated from the 30% catalyst-cap now that earnings passed. val_adj 0 (G2 DCF blind); PROFIT_ARMED spurious. Retains 211 on the 375.56 stop; further exit on a close < EMA200 358.93 or < 375.56. Frees. |\n| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | 500.94 | HOLD | 516.08 | 494.30 | n/a | 578.03 (+12.0%) | 685.57 (+32.8%) | Hold AMD: the slide to 500.94 was a sector-wide chip selloff (Samsung-triggered), not a fundamental break, with the Street still positive (Goldman Wells). Signal HOLD (cv collapsed and this is the 2nd consecutive close below the 539.68 reclaim line, but the 12wk is strongly positive (+37%) so L2 gives no exit, and the close is +1.4% above the 494.30 structural stop (intact). No signal-based sell reason. Recorded stop reset from the mislabeled 539.68 reclaim line to the true 494.30 structural stop (no protective-stop loosening). 539.68 retained only as the future add re-arm trigger. Exit on a decisive close < 494.30 or the 12wk rolling negative. |\n\n_Track record: 3 graded decisions · 1-week calibration -0.548._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.",
      "date_published": "2026-07-17T00:00:00.000Z",
      "tags": [
        "ussemicon",
        "us",
        "eod"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ussemicon-2026-07-16",
      "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ussemicon/2026-07-16/",
      "title": "US Semiconductors — 2026-07-16",
      "summary": "EOD 2026-07-10",
      "content_text": "## USSEMICON End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-07-16\n\nEOD 2026-07-10\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) | 419.48 | SELL 30% | 438.02 | 405.76 | n/a | n/a | 434.27 (-0.9%) | Trim TSM 30% to cut risk on a deteriorating position -- the 3rd re-issue of the unexecuted 07-14/07-15 trim (L3: execute the de-risk promptly; the portfolio still shows 422 and the name keeps bleeding). Risk-control de-risk: conviction pinned at 0 for a 3rd consecutive session (NO TRADE, 'Consensus conflict + low conviction'), a new lower settled close 419.48 (3 straight lower closes 421...48), underwater -4.23% (Gain_ATR -1.07), and the 12wk 434.27 has collapsed to only +3.5% over close. Loss-minimization-first: honor the breached trail partially. Held at the conservative 30% tier (not escalated to 50%) -- the prior run's '3rd NO TRADE -> fuller exit' trigger has fired, but the 07-16 Q2 earnings print lands right at execution (catalyst-aware gate: don't escalate selling into a <=5-day bullish-setup catalyst) and the 12wk is not yet negative (no L2 full-exit basis); the post-print 07-16 settled close is the decider -- a close below the 405.76 structural stop or a 4th NO TRADE escalates to 50%. Execute at the 07-16 open; TSM reports pre-market so the trim fills post-print -- reprice/withdraw if it gaps >1.5% (a bullish gap flips the signal off NO TRADE, L8). PROFIT_ARMED on the row is spurious (T12 96.59% >=90 but the name is at a loss). GPI DCF -> valuation blind, amplify suppressed (G2). 1wk n/a (no Target_Price; model band 400.61-447.17 straddles close); 12wk 434.27 (+3.5%) retained on the held, structural stop held at 405.76 (not loosened to the lower 400.61 Est_Low). |\n| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | 529.14 | WATCH — queued order lapsed | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Queued buy @539.67 lapsed — closed 529.14 below the level; awaiting reprice at the next end-of-day run. Pyramid on AMD -- add (43.11% of the 172-share holding,) only on confirmed strength. AMD re-rated to a fresh PullbackBuy_VWAP (cv 71, the L1-favored family), the first BUY-ADD after 3 HOLDs, with a 12wk of 754.02 (+42.5%). But the 07-15 close 529.14 sits 1.95% below the broken 539.68 confirmation line, so the add is QUEUED as a GTC buy-stop @539.67 -- reclaim-gated, filling only if AMD trades back above the broken line (US-1: queue-don't-fill a BUY-ADD, cancel-on-fade at the BOD reconcile). Needs no cash today; self-limiting. size_mod 1.0x -- the -16.79 MoS is a broken-DCF artifact (DCF for a ~45% grower, G2-unreliable), so neither penalize conviction nor haircut size. Stop on the added lot = the model 494.30. Takes AMD (, ~13% of book, within cap). Estimates use f=0.30 (L5): 1wk 562.64 (+4.3%); 4wk 616.25 (+14.2%); 12wk 754.02 (+39.7%) exceeds the DCF anchor -- projection assumes growth beyond priced-in. expires 2026-07-21 (anchor + 3 sessions). News confirms Strong Buy + PT raises -670. |\n| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | 529.14 | HOLD | 516.08 | 539.68 | 562.64 (+9.0%) | 616.25 (+19.4%) | 754.02 (+46.1%) | Hold AMD 172 @516.08, +2.53%. The 07-15 close is 1.95% below the 539.68 confirmation line, but this is only the 1st close below since the 07-14 reclaim (548.13) and is signal-contradicted: the model re-rated to a fresh PullbackBuy_VWAP BUY-ADD (cv 71), the 12wk 754.02 is strongly positive (+42.5%), and the name is not armed (Gain_ATR 0.34). L2 requires a stop-break AND a negative 12wk to exit -- 12wk is +42.5%, so no exit; G1/G3 winner-protection + the US-3 precedent (a winner with a strongly positive 12wk is a trail, not a trim) apply. Keep 539.68 as the exit-confirmation line (never ratchet down) -- exit only on a confirmed 2nd consecutive close below it with the 12wk rolling negative, or a decisive break of the 494.30 model structural stop. The reclaim-add and this exit line share the 539.67/539.68 pivot. Broken FV anchor (GPI MoS -16.79, DCF) is G2-unreliable, moot on a hold. 1wk 562.64 uses f=0.30 (L5); Est band 497.15-587.17. |\n\n_Track record: 3 graded decisions · 1-week calibration -0.207._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.",
      "date_published": "2026-07-16T00:00:00.000Z",
      "tags": [
        "ussemicon",
        "us",
        "eod"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ussemicon-2026-07-15",
      "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ussemicon/2026-07-15/",
      "title": "US Semiconductors — 2026-07-15",
      "summary": "EOD 2026-07-10",
      "content_text": "## USSEMICON End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-07-15\n\nEOD 2026-07-10\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) | 420.39 | SELL 30% | 438.02 | 405.76 | n/a | n/a | 443.98 (+1.4%) | Trim TSM 30% to reduce risk into the 07-16 Q2 earnings print -- re-affirming the unexecuted 07-14 trim (L3: execute the de-risk promptly; the portfolio still shows 422 and the name kept bleeding). A risk-control de-risk on a deteriorating technical: conviction pinned at 0 (2nd consecutive NO TRADE, 'Consensus conflict + low conviction'), the 07-14 settled close 420.39 is 1.5% below the 426.80 protective trail (2 straight closes below: 421..39), and the position is underwater -4.02% (Gain_ATR -1.03). Loss-minimization-first: partially honor the breached trail. Capped at the conservative 30% tier (not 50/full) because the 12wk 443.98 is still +5.6% positive (no negative-12wk full-exit basis, L2) and the 07-16 setup is strongly bullish -> keep 70% for the print (catalyst-aware hold). PROFIT_ARMED on the row is spurious (T12 94.69% >=90 but the name is at a loss). NA_CCY -> valuation blind. Execute at the 07-15 open; reprice if it gaps >1.5% (L8). Remaining 295 on a wide structural stop ~405.76 (Est_Low) through earnings; a post-earnings close below 405.76 or a 3rd NO TRADE confirms a fuller exit. Est band 405.76-452.46. |\n| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | 548.13 | HOLD | 516.08 | 539.68 | 569.87 (+10.4%) | 620.58 (+20.2%) | 781.09 (+51.4%) | Hold AMD 172 @516.08, +6.21%. The 07-14 breach is fully resolved: the settled close 548.13 is back ABOVE both the 539.68 trail and the 530.02 model stop, the signal re-rated to FailedBreakdown_Up_20D (cv 69), the 12wk 781.09 is strongly positive (+42.5%), and the name is not armed (Gain_ATR 0.88, T12 70.18%). L2 requires a stop-break AND a negative 12wk to exit -- neither holds; G1/G3 winner-protection + the US-3 precedent (a winner with a strongly positive 12wk is a trail, not a trim) apply. News confirms Strong Buy with PT raises to -670 and Advancing AI 07-22 ahead. Keep the protective trail at 539.68 (higher than the 530.02 model stop; a trail never ratchets down). Model 1wk 569.87 uses f=0.30 (L5); 4wk 620.58 (+13.2%); 12wk 781.09 (+42.5%) exceeds the DCF anchor -- projection assumes growth beyond priced-in. Est band 515.20-596.70. |\n\n_Track record: 3 graded decisions · 1-week calibration -0.207._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.",
      "date_published": "2026-07-15T00:00:00.000Z",
      "tags": [
        "ussemicon",
        "us",
        "eod"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ussemicon-2026-07-14",
      "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ussemicon/2026-07-14/",
      "title": "US Semiconductors — 2026-07-14",
      "summary": "EOD 2026-07-10",
      "content_text": "## USSEMICON End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-07-14\n\nEOD 2026-07-10\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) | 421.58 | SELL 30% | 438.02 | 407.00 | n/a | n/a | 456.17 (+4.1%) | Trim TSM 30% to reduce risk ahead of the 07-16 Q2 earnings print: a risk-control de-risk on a deteriorating technical -- conviction collapsed (NO TRADE, 'Consensus conflict + low conviction'), the 07-13 settled close 421.58 broke 1.22% below the 426.80 protective trail, and the position is underwater -3.75% (Gain_ATR -0.89). Loss-minimization-first: partially honor the breached trail. Capped at the conservative 30% tier (not 50/full) because the 12wk 456.17 is still +8.2% positive, this is only the FIRST NO TRADE (not N-consecutive), and the Street/Yahoo setup into the print is strongly bullish (guided -40.2B rev ~10% seq, GM 65.5-67.5%, ~94.5% beat odds, Barclays PT -> keep 70% for the catalyst. The row's PROFIT_ARMED is spurious (T12 92.4% armed it, but the name is at a loss -- not a profit-take). NA_CCY -> valuation blind (val_adj 0). Execute at the 07-14 open (L8); reprice if it gaps >1.5%. Remaining 295 held on a wide structural stop ~407 (Est_Low) through earnings -- the event is the decider; a post-earnings settled close below 407 or a 2nd NO TRADE confirms a fuller exit. Standalone book (ADR-0014); L7 does not apply. |\n| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | 534.39 | HOLD | 516.08 | 539.68 | n/a | 607.36 (+17.7%) | 761.51 (+47.6%) | Hold AMD 172 @516.08, +3.55%. The 07-13 settled close dipped 0.98% below the 539.68 trail, but this is a NON-DECISIVE, signal-contradicted breach: the model re-rated to a constructive PullbackBuy_VWAP (cv 64, the L1-favored family), eased its own structural stop to 496.42, the 12wk 761.51 is strongly positive (+42.6%), and the name is not armed (Gain_ATR 0.52). L2 requires a stop-break AND a negative 12wk to exit -- 12wk is +42.6%, so no exit; G1/G3 winner-protection + the US-3 precedent (a faded name with a strongly positive 12wk is a trail, not a trim) apply. News confirms the pullback is a sector-wide AI profit-take, not AMD-specific, with the Advancing AI event 07-22 and Q2 earnings ahead. Keep the trailing stop at 539.68 (never ratchet down) as a confirmation line -- exit only on a confirmed 2nd settled close below 539.68, the 12wk rolling negative, or a decisive break of the 496.42 model stop. Broken FV anchor (GPI MoS -16.35, DCF for a ~45% grower) is G2-unreliable, moot on a hold. 1wk ~543.5 uses f=0.30 (L5, calib -0.207); Est band 510.63-589.69. |\n\n_Track record: 3 graded decisions · 1-week calibration -0.207._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.",
      "date_published": "2026-07-14T00:00:00.000Z",
      "tags": [
        "ussemicon",
        "us",
        "eod"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ussemicon-2026-07-11",
      "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ussemicon/2026-07-11/",
      "title": "US Semiconductors — 2026-07-11",
      "summary": "EOD 2026-07-10",
      "content_text": "## USSEMICON End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-07-11\n\nEOD 2026-07-10\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | 557.89 | HOLD | 516.08 | 539.68 | 579.74 (+12.3%) | 630.73 (+22.2%) | 794.99 (+54.0%) | Hold AMD 172 @516.08, now +8.1% : stable FailedBreakdown_Up_20D, conviction firm at 74. Not a profit-take -- still not armed (Gain_ATR 1.15 < 3.0, T12 progress 70%), no exit warning, 12wk target 794.99 (+42.5%) strongly positive; G1/G3 winner-protection says trail, don't trim. Raise the trailing stop 526..68 (model chandelier, +4.5% above cost -- locks in the gain). Broken FV anchor (GPI MoS -16.35, DCF for a ~45% grower) is G2-unreliable and moot on a hold. 1wk 579.74 uses f=0.30 (L5, calib degenerate); Est band 518.75-600.65. |\n| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) | 434.11 | HOLD | 438.02 | 426.80 | 445.27 (+1.7%) | 471.31 (+7.6%) | 483.86 (+10.5%) | Hold TSM 422 @438.02 (-0.89%,): stable FailedBreakdown_Up_20D but conviction eased; close still above stop, 12wk target 483.86 (+11.5%) positive, not armed (Gain_ATR -0.21, T12 progress 89.7% just shy of the 90 arm). Earnings 07-16 (~3 sessions) and June CPI 07-14 -> catalyst-aware HOLD/trail through both events; trim only on a confirmed lower-high or a decisive stop break, never pre-trim into the catalyst. NA_CCY -> valuation blind. Keep the trailing stop at 426.80 (model stop eased to 424.81 -- a trailing stop never ratchets down). 1wk 445.27 uses f=0.30 (L5); Est band 415.31-465.08. |\n\n_Track record: 3 graded decisions · 1-week calibration n/a._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.",
      "date_published": "2026-07-11T00:00:00.000Z",
      "tags": [
        "ussemicon",
        "us",
        "eod"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ussemicon-2026-07-10",
      "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ussemicon/2026-07-10/",
      "title": "US Semiconductors — 2026-07-10",
      "summary": "EOD 2026-07-10",
      "content_text": "## USSEMICON End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-07-10\n\nEOD 2026-07-10\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| ASX | ASE Technology Holding | 43.25 | BUY | 43.25 | 41.54 | 45.30 (+4.7%) | 50.08 (+15.8%) | 61.63 (+42.5%) | Start a position in ASE Technology (ASX), the book's top-ranked fresh buy: a FailedBreakdown_Up_20D signal re-armed to BUY (conviction 69, Buy_Rank 1) with the entry right at the close -- not extended, RSI 57.5. News confirms: AI chip-packaging demand is lifting ASE's LEAP outlook above for 2026, net income +87% YoY and 2026 EPS revised up to (+84% YoY). Risk-defined: stop 41.54 (-3.9%), 4wk target 50.08 (+15.8%), 12wk 61.63 (+42.5%). Sized as a HALF starter ( / vs model-implied) for three stacked cautions: L1 FailedBreakdown_Up_20D is a low-persistence chase family and the signal whipsawed BUY->WATCH->WATCH->BUY over the last 4 snapshots; the stock is +169% YTD / +77% in 3 months (longer-run extended, pullback risk); and June CPI 07-14 (4 sessions out) carries an overlay de-risk-into-print bias. Can add on a second confirming/persistence print. Valuation blind (NA_CCY -- TWD financials; val_adj 0, quality gate off per the NA_* rule despite Quality_Pass=False). scorecard_bias 0 (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D/buy cell report-only, n=2). Standalone book (ADR-0014) -- L7 cross-book share is mirror-era and does not apply; ASX is an independent net-new decision. L8: executes at the next US open 2026-07-10 at the 43.25 close-ref; reprice if the open gaps >1.5%. Entry range 42.40-44.10 (Entry +-0.25xATR). 1wk 45.30 uses f=0.30 (L5, calib degenerate). |\n| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | 546.72 | HOLD | 516.08 | 526.48 | n/a | 627.67 (+21.6%) | 779.08 (+51.0%) | Hold AMD 172 @516.08, now +5.94% : conviction rebounded on a fresh bounce and the position is comfortably above cost. Not a profit-take -- still not armed (Gain_ATR 0.76 < 3.0, T12 progress 70%), no exit warning, 12wk target 779.08 (+42%) strongly positive. Stop now moves above cost: raise the trailing stop 497..48 (model chandelier). Broken FV anchor (GPI MoS -16.35, FV/sh vs) is G2-unreliable and moot on a hold. |\n| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) | 436.96 | HOLD | 438.02 | 426.80 | n/a | 477.59 (+9.0%) | 493.86 (+12.7%) | Hold TSM 422 @438.02 (-0.24%,): stable FailedBreakdown_Up_20D but conviction eased; close still above stop, 12wk target 493.86 positive, not armed (Gain_ATR -0.05). Earnings 07-16 (~4 sessions) and June CPI 07-14 -> catalyst-aware HOLD/trail through both events; trim only on a confirmed lower-high or a decisive stop break, never pre-trim into the catalyst. NA_CCY -> valuation blind. Raise trailing stop 425..80 (model trail). |\n\n_Track record: 2 graded decisions · 1-week calibration n/a._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.",
      "date_published": "2026-07-10T00:00:00.000Z",
      "tags": [
        "ussemicon",
        "us",
        "eod"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ussemicon-2026-07-09",
      "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ussemicon/2026-07-09/",
      "title": "US Semiconductors — 2026-07-09",
      "summary": "EOD 2026-07-09",
      "content_text": "## USSEMICON End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-07-09\n\nEOD 2026-07-09\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | 517.41 | HOLD | 516.08 | 497.37 | n/a | 597.55 (+15.8%) | 737.30 (+42.9%) | Hold AMD 172 @516.08 at breakeven (+0.26%): signal faded to HOLD and conviction dropped, but no signal-based sell reason exists -- not profit-armed (Gain_ATR 0.03, T12 progress 70%), no exit warning, close 517.41 above stop, 12wk target 737.30 (+42%) strongly positive (winner-protection G3). Deterioration is a note, not an exit (no stop break / negative 12wk / SELL-REDUCE). Raise trailing stop 475..37 (model trail, below cost). Broken FV anchor (GPI MoS -16.35) is G2-unreliable and moot on a HOLD. Model 1wk band 473.09-585.31. |\n| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) | 436.98 | HOLD | 438.02 | 425.67 | n/a | 482.23 (+10.1%) | 499.70 (+14.1%) | Hold TSM 422 @438.02 (-0.24%): stable FailedBreakdown_Up_20D, conviction firmed, close 436.98 above stop, 12wk target 499.70 positive, not profit-armed (Gain_ATR -0.05, T12 progress 87.5%). Earnings 07-16 (~5 sessions) and June CPI 07-14 -> catalyst-aware HOLD/trail through the events; trim only on a confirmed lower-high or decisive stop break, never pre-trim into the catalyst. NA_CCY -> valuation blind (val_adj 0). Raise trailing stop 419..67 (model trail). Model 1wk band 412.89-472.83. |\n\n_Track record: 2 graded decisions · 1-week calibration n/a._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.",
      "date_published": "2026-07-09T00:00:00.000Z",
      "tags": [
        "ussemicon",
        "us",
        "eod"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ussemicon-2026-07-08",
      "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ussemicon/2026-07-08/",
      "title": "US Semiconductors — 2026-07-08",
      "summary": "EOD 2026-07-08",
      "content_text": "## USSEMICON End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-07-08\n\nEOD 2026-07-08\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | 516.11 | HOLD | 516.08 | 475.88 | 545.39 (+5.7%) | 613.71 (+18.9%) | 735.46 (+42.5%) | HOLD the 172-sh AMD position (filled 07-08 @ 516.075, now flat). AMD prints BUY cv71 on the reliable PullbackBuy_VWAP cell (Buy_Rank #1, RSI 51, not extended) -- still bullish but faded from STRONG BUY 76. News confirms-hold: Goldman PT (Buy), Wells Fargo Citi upside-catalyst watch, Advancing AI event 07-22/23; YTD +131%, the recent -5%/month dip is the failed breakdown the entry caught. An ADD is DECLINED: adj conviction 71 -10 (GROWTH_PRICED_IN val haircut) = 61 < the 65 floor, and the overlay bars new leverage into the 07-08 FOMC-minutes print. STOP RESET 527..88: the 527.04 was computed off the un-filled 552.05 projected entry and sat ABOVE the actual 516.075 fill (nonsensical for a long) -- adopt the model's post-fill stop (-7.8% risk). 12wk 735.46 exceeds the DCF anchor (growth beyond priced-in). Not a sell (bullish, flat, above stop, +42% 12wk). |\n| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) | 432.57 | HOLD | 438.02 | 419.90 | 447.77 (+2.2%) | 483.25 (+10.3%) | 501.74 (+14.5%) | HOLD the 422-sh TSM position (filled 07-08 @ 438.02, now -1.24%). Signal collapsed STRONG BUY 76 -> WATCH cv49 in one session on FailedBreakdown_Up_20D (the L1-weak chase family fading exactly as the learning predicts) -- deteriorating, but NOT a sell: L2 needs a stop-break + negative-12wk, and TSM is ABOVE its stop with a strongly positive 12wk (501.74, +16%); WATCH != SELL-REDUCE; NA_CCY val is blind (val_adj 0). News confirms-hold: Citi PT NT (Buy), Barclays OW ->earnings 07-16 (EPS +52% YoY expected), 52W high on 06-30 -- the fade is technical, not fundamental; 07-16 is a catalyst-aware hold event (>5d out). Bought 1 day ago at a favorable below-ref fill; hold on the model stop. STOP RESET 438..90: the 438.91 was computed off the un-filled 451.79 projected entry; adopt the model's post-fill stop (-4.1% risk). |\n\n_Track record: 2 graded decisions · 1-week calibration n/a._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.",
      "date_published": "2026-07-08T00:00:00.000Z",
      "tags": [
        "ussemicon",
        "us",
        "eod"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ussemicon-2026-07-07",
      "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ussemicon/2026-07-07/",
      "title": "US Semiconductors — 2026-07-07",
      "summary": "EOD 2026-07-07",
      "content_text": "## USSEMICON End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-07-07\n\nEOD 2026-07-07\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) | 451.79 | BUY | 451.79 | 438.91 | 467.25 (+3.4%) | 503.31 (+11.4%) | 538.11 (+19.1%) | First of the seed. TSM is a stable-and-strengthening STRONG BUY (BUY x3 -> STRONG BUY, conviction on a FailedBreakdown_Up_20D reversal caught AT ENTRY (RSI 54.6, EntDist ~0 -- not a chase), F-Score 9 (best quality in book). News confirms: Citi raised PT to NT (Buy) on sustained AI demand and TSMC hiking leading-edge (7nm & below) prices 5-10%; earnings 07-16. NA_CCY valuation (ADR -- val blind, val_adj 0, scorecard 0), adj 76 clears the 65 floor comfortably. Sized 95.34% x x 20% buy-pct =, size_mod 1.0. Execute at the 07-08 open (L8); price is the 07-06 close-ref -- reprice if the open gaps >1.5%. Measured first tranche into the FOMC-minutes/CPI window (overlay: stage adds between rate events); ~71% kept dry. |\n| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | 552.05 | BUY | 552.05 | 527.04 | 577.62 (+4.6%) | 637.29 (+15.4%) | 786.67 (+42.5%) | Stable STRONG BUY x4 (conviction on a FailedBreakdown_Up_20D reversal at entry (RSI 57, EntDist 0). News confirms and matches the signal: AMD +8.3% Mon 07-06 recovering an ~11% late-week drop (the failed breakdown the signal caught); Goldman PT Wells Fargo; Advancing AI event 07-22/23. Valuation GROWTH_PRICED_IN, MoS_FV -17.1 -> bounded val_adj -10 lands adj at 66 (clears floor by +1). The FV anchor is a broken hyper-growth artifact (FV/sh vs; DCF for a 45% grower) -- the systemic note stands; expressed conservatively via size_mod 0.5. 12wk 786.67 EXCEEDS the DCF anchor -- projection assumes growth beyond priced-in; 4wk 637.29 Goldman Sized 95.34% x x 20% x 0.5 =. Execute at 07-08 open (L8), price is 07-06 close-ref, reprice on >1.5% gap. |\n\n_Track record: 0 graded decisions · 1-week calibration n/a._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.",
      "date_published": "2026-07-07T00:00:00.000Z",
      "tags": [
        "ussemicon",
        "us",
        "eod"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ussemicon-2026-07-04",
      "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ussemicon/2026-07-04/",
      "title": "US Semiconductors — 2026-07-04",
      "summary": "EOD 2026-07-04",
      "content_text": "## USSEMICON End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-07-04\n\nEOD 2026-07-04\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| — | No action (inception) | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Fresh-book (ADR-0014) inception EOD. No buy-pool name cleared the adjusted-conviction >=65 floor; nothing held to dispose. seed cash retained 100% dry. Anchor = 20260704_080020 carrying the settled Thu 2026-07-02 close (US closed Fri 07-03, Independence Day observed). Aligned with the defensive/slow-walk-semi overlay. Book re-evaluates at the Mon 2026-07-06 open. |\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.",
      "date_published": "2026-07-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "tags": [
        "ussemicon",
        "us",
        "eod"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ussemicon-2026-07-03",
      "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ussemicon/2026-07-03/",
      "title": "US Semiconductors — 2026-07-03",
      "summary": "NO independent ACTION - mirrors: QCOM 90 sell (ustech), KLAC 500 / NVDA 400 sells (us), stop resets (us).",
      "content_text": "## USSEMICON End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-07-03\n\nNO independent ACTION - mirrors: QCOM 90 sell (ustech), KLAC 500 / NVDA 400 sells (us), stop resets (us).\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| QCOM | Qualcomm | 176.25 | SELL 90% | 176.25 | 204.82 | 177.86 (+0.9%) | 181.60 (+3.0%) | 159.82 (-9.3%) | same physical shares as ustech; execute once (L7) |\n| KLAC | KLA Corp | 235.55 | SELL 50% | 235.55 | 221.29 | 252.66 (+7.3%) | 292.59 (+24.2%) | 335.66 (+42.5%) | mirror of us stop-discipline sell (L7) |\n| NVDA | NVIDIA | 194.83 | SELL 50% | 194.83 | 181.45 | n/a | n/a | 168.44 (-13.5%) | mirror of us fired profit-take (L7) |\n| GLW | Corning | 196.79 | HOLD | 196.79 | 183.17 | n/a | 251.28 (+27.7%) | 280.43 (+42.5%) | mirror of us stop reset |\n\n_Track record: 21 graded decisions · 1-week calibration -0.100._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.",
      "date_published": "2026-07-03T00:00:00.000Z",
      "tags": [
        "ussemicon",
        "us",
        "eod"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ussemicon-2026-07-01",
      "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ussemicon/2026-07-01/",
      "title": "US Semiconductors — 2026-07-01",
      "summary": "NET-NEW NO ACTION. Mirror us 07-01 on shared semis (execute once). Reconcile QCOM->0 (phantom), NVDA->800. No standalone capital.",
      "content_text": "## USSEMICON End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-07-01\n\nNET-NEW NO ACTION. Mirror us 07-01 on shared semis (execute once). Reconcile QCOM->0 (phantom), NVDA->800. No standalone capital.\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| QCOM | Qualcomm | 181.92 | RECONCILE->0 | 184.79 | 201.30 | n/a | 183.58 (-0.7%) | 187.70 (+1.6%) | — |\n| NVDA | NVIDIA | 197.58 | RECONCILE->800 | 200.09 | 188.00 | n/a | n/a | 175.98 (-12.0%) | — |\n| KLAC | KLA Corp | 266.19 | SHARED — us queues add @280 | 280.00 | 272.00 | 300.40 (+7.3%) | 449.89 (+60.7%) | 429.94 (+53.5%) | — |\n\n_Track record: 21 graded decisions · 1-week calibration 0.120._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.",
      "date_published": "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z",
      "tags": [
        "ussemicon",
        "us",
        "eod"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ussemicon-2026-06-30",
      "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ussemicon/2026-06-30/",
      "title": "US Semiconductors — 2026-06-30",
      "summary": "⚠ SAME SEMIS AS us (execute ONCE; us 06-30 governs); MIRROR adds KLAC+MU+new LRCX (cv93/cv93/cv93) + GLW queue; QCOM reconcile→0; NVDA hold. NO net-new ussemicon capital (shared spent by us); ASX = unfunded floor-clearer.",
      "content_text": "## USSEMICON End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-06-30\n\n⚠ SAME SEMIS AS us (execute ONCE; us 06-30 governs); MIRROR adds KLAC+MU+new LRCX (cv93/cv93/cv93) + GLW queue; QCOM reconcile→0; NVDA hold. NO net-new ussemicon capital (shared spent by us); ASX = unfunded floor-clearer.\n\n| Ticker | Name | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| KLAC | KLA Corporation | ADD | 278.39 | 233.72 | 292.59 (+5.1%) | 396.74 (+42.5%) | 396.71 (+42.5%) | STRONG BUY-ADD cv93 MomentumContinuation, UNDERVALUED+Qpass; SAME semis as us (execute once) |\n| MU | Micron Technology | ADD | 1145.28 | 925.75 | 1163.91 (+1.6%) | 1300.55 (+13.6%) | 1632.02 (+42.5%) | BUY-ADD cv78 PullbackBuy; val suppressed (DCF unreliable RevGw 2.59); SAME semis as us (execute once) |\n| LRCX | Lam Research | NEW BUY | 410.91 | 327.12 | 433.01 (+5.4%) | 595.07 (+44.8%) | 585.55 (+42.5%) | STRONG BUY cv93 MomentumContinuation, Qpass; the us new-buy, shared semi; execute once via us |\n| GLW | Corning | ADD QUEUED gtc-limit | 235.52 | 207.74 | 257.00 (+9.1%) | 418.89 (+77.9%) | 364.36 (+54.7%) | BUY-ADD cv65 extended eD -0.83; L1 52W overshoots -> QUEUE pullback; shared w/ us |\n| QCOM | Qualcomm | RECONCILE->0 | 188.72 | 203.16 | 188.40 (-0.2%) | 186.18 (-1.3%) | 202.21 (+7.1%) | already sold in us; ussemicon JSON drift -> reconcile to 0; cv49 sell T12 +7.1% not clean L2 |\n| NVDA | NVIDIA | HOLD | 194.97 | 189.00 | n/a | n/a | 169.90 (-12.9%) | sell eased -> NO TRADE; us trimmed to 800; sync JSON; hold |\n| — | NO NET-NEW USSEMICON BUY | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | ASX(FailedBreakdown +2,adj78)/TSM/SNDK clear floor but unfunded - shared by us (UT-4); don't double |\n\n_Track record: 20 graded decisions · 1-week calibration 0.120._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.",
      "date_published": "2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "tags": [
        "ussemicon",
        "us",
        "eod"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ussemicon-2026-06-26",
      "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ussemicon/2026-06-26/",
      "title": "US Semiconductors — 2026-06-26",
      "summary": "⚠ SAME SEMIS AS us (execute ONCE); MIRROR rotation: NVDA trim 25% -> add GLW(queue)/MU; net-new semi = ASX (cv76→adj81). DELL is us-only (not a semi).",
      "content_text": "## USSEMICON End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-06-26\n\n⚠ SAME SEMIS AS us (execute ONCE); MIRROR rotation: NVDA trim 25% -> add GLW(queue)/MU; net-new semi = ASX (cv76→adj81). DELL is us-only (not a semi).\n\n| Ticker | Name | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | TRIM 25% | 195.74 | 189.00 | n/a | n/a | 179.31 (-8.4%) | stop-break + neg 12wk; SAME SHARES as us — execute once |\n| QCOM | Qualcomm Incorporated | SYNC_EXIT | 204.90 | — | n/a | n/a | 246.39 (+20.2%) | exited in us 06-25; ussemicon JSON stale at 100 — sync to 0 |\n| GLW | Corning Incorporated | ADD QUEUED gtc-limit | 221.08 | 196.00 | 260.04 (+17.6%) | 367.00 (+66.0%) | 316.42 (+43.1%) | STRONG BUY-ADD cv90 extended; queue pullback; SAME SHARES as us |\n| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | ADD | 1239.11 | 1090.00 | 1488.40 (+20.1%) | 2172.77 (+75.3%) | 1729.32 (+39.6%) | BUY-ADD cv80 blowout; 0.5x; SAME SHARES as us; 4wk tgt 2172 extreme overshoot |\n| ASX | ASE Technology Holding | NEW BUY | 41.85 | 40.46 | 43.33 (+3.5%) | 47.39 (+13.2%) | 59.64 (+42.5%) | net-new semi; clean entry; FailedBreakdown +5 (vs us -5); AI packaging; pick vs us DELL on shared pool |\n| KLAC | KLA Corporation | HOLD | 258.80 | 243.51 | 268.58 (+3.8%) | 295.44 (+14.2%) | 368.79 (+42.5%) | HOLD cv68 rising, UNDERVALUED; conditional add only on BUY-ADD/52W break |\n\n_Track record: 19 graded decisions · 1-week calibration 0.267._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.",
      "date_published": "2026-06-26T00:00:00.000Z",
      "tags": [
        "ussemicon",
        "us",
        "eod"
      ]
    }
  ]
}