{ "version": "https://jsonfeed.org/version/1.1", "title": "algo2alpha — The Learning Investor — US Tech", "home_page_url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ustech/", "feed_url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ustech/feed.json", "description": "Redacted end-of-day decision records for US Tech.", "authors": [ { "name": "Boon Sing Thia" } ], "items": [ { "id": "ustech-2026-08-01", "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ustech/2026-08-01/", "title": "US Tech — 2026-08-01", "summary": "EOD 2026-08-01", "content_text": "## USTECH End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-08-01\n\nEOD 2026-08-01\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing C | 404.25 | SELL ALL | — | 406.37 | n/a | n/a | 347.18 | Closing the last of a position we have been stepping out of since mid-July. TSMC's business is not the problem - Q2 revenue grew 36% with net income up 77%, and the stock bounced 7% last week on renewed AI-infrastructure confidence - but our position is still below its protective stop for a seventh session, still under both its 20- and 50-day trend lines, and the model's 12-week projection of sits 14% below today's price. The signal engine itself now reads the name as directionless. We take the bounce as a better exit price, not as a reason to re-open a trade whose case has not recovered. Realised loss about -7.7%. OPS: 6th arming, executor stalled 7 sessions (UT-11 re-fire, do not re-litigate on a bounce). L2 legs: neg-12wk holds (-14.12%); stop-break decayed to -0.52% (0.10 ATR, not decisive). Written withdrawal trigger TESTED AND NOT FIRED - needs 2 consecutive settled closes ABOVE 406.37 with a rising 12wk; closes were 403.31 and 404.25, both below. Trigger carried forward unchanged. G2 suppresses the valuation amplify (DCF vs, ~9x broken). PROFIT_ARMED at T12_Progress 116.44 with Gain_ATR -1.67 is the UT-9 arm-on-loss mislabel, inert - this is a loss-cut, never a profit-take. Proceeds, realised ~-. TSMC July monthly revenue 08-10 falls 5 sessions after the exit - not a sale into a catalyst. Model band 373.46-426.82. |\n| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | 405.37 | HOLD | — | 358.88 | n/a | n/a | 511.06 | Holding all. Last session's proposed half-exit was withdrawn and today's fresh read confirms that call rather than inheriting it: the shares trade 13% above our protective stop, the model's 12-week projection of sits 26% above today's price, and none of the deterioration signals we said would trigger a trim has appeared. The business news supports patience - a raised dividend paid this week, $3bn of new notes and a $6bn revolver secured, and new Vera Rubin-based AI servers shipping to CoreWeave. We are down about 7.7% on the position and see no signal-based reason to realise it. OPS: not in the sell pool - 0, blank Sell_Rank, no Exit_Warning code, Gain_ATR -0.93 so NOT profit-armed. All 3 written completion triggers unfired (close +12.95% above 358.88; 12wk +26.07% above close; no NO-TRADE streak, label is AVOID). Stop HELD at 358.88, NOT raised - the engine's Stop_Price 405.37 is the degenerate entry=stop=close AVOID-row artifact and ATR 36.62 is 9.0% of price, so tightening invites a whipsaw. UT-10: no ADD, no averaging down (both prior pullback ADDs graded stop_hit). Held value; risk to stop. |\n| AMZN | Amazon.com Inc | 271.58 | NO ACTION | 258.62 | 223.92 | 279.43 (+8.0%) | 328.00 (+26.8%) | 256.85 (-0.7%) | Standing aside on the strongest signal this book has produced in weeks, and it is worth being clear why. Amazon's quarter was outstanding - revenue 6bn and operating income 5bn both well ahead, with AWS growing 36.7%, its fastest in eighteen quarters, on a $496bn backlog - and the stock rose 15.3% on it. Two things stop us buying today. First, our fundamental quality screen still fails the name, and that screen is computed from financials filed before this quarter, so it may simply be a step behind reality. Second, and independently, buying a stock the day after a 15% earnings gap is the exact chase our own record says loses money; the model's own entry is 5% below today's close. We would rather wait for the pullback and for the fundamentals to be re-measured than pay up on the day. OPS: adj 70 CLEARS the 65 floor - first candidate in 8 sessions to do so - but Quality_Pass FALSE (F-Score 6, Quality_Rank 21/26, FV method EPV, DCF blank) is a HARD block on new entries. Independently blocked by L6 (post-earnings gap-chase) and the no-chase rule (ED -0.95 <= -0.25 -> queue-only). RE-ARM TRIGGER: re-run fairvalue once Q2 financials land in the fundamentals feed; if Quality_Pass flips TRUE and price pulls back to ED >= -0.25 of the then-live Entry_Price, AMZN becomes this book's leading acquire at adj ~70. Sizing had it been taken: @ 258.62 (0.6695 x x 0.20 = x0.75); entry range 255.21-262.03. NOTE the engine defect: 12wk 256.85 is BELOW both the close (271.58, -5.4%) and its own entry, on a conv-80 Rank#1 row. No DCF anchor exists to annotate against. |\n| SNOW | Snowflake Inc. | 293.28 | NO ACTION | 301.37 | 256.05 | 328.56 (+9.0%) | 392.00 (+30.1%) | 417.92 (+38.7%) | Passing on Snowflake for an eighth straight session. The momentum is real - the stock made a 52-week high this week and the trade would only trigger on further strength - but the company still fails our fundamental quality screen on profitability, and on the valuation work its earnings power is negative on a per-share basis, ranking 23rd of 26 names in the book. Paying above a record high for a business that does not yet cover its own cost of capital is not a trade we want, and the signal is not strong enough to argue otherwise. OPS: adj (val_adj -8 at the recomputed anchor MoS -1.61), three below the 65 floor, AND independently hard-gated on Quality_Pass FALSE (F-Score 5, EPV -/sh, rank 23/26) - 8th consecutive session. L1/UT-12 discounts MomentumContinuation_Up (own-book cell 0/2 on 1wk, report-only). Entry 301.37 is a buy-stop ABOVE the 293.28 close, ED +0.54 so NOT extended - the block is quality and floor, not chase. Sizing had it been taken: @ 301.37 (x0.75). 12wk 417.92 EXCEEDS DCF anchor - projection assumes growth beyond priced-in. |\n| CRM | SalesForce Inc | 184.02 | NO ACTION | 184.02 | 177.03 | 189.66 (+3.1%) | 202.83 (+10.2%) | 191.72 (+4.2%) | Salesforce is the only buy candidate today that passes our fundamental quality screen, and it is reasonably valued, but we are still not buying it. The trading signal appeared in a single session - the name went from no signal at all to a buy overnight - on the least reliable of our setup patterns, and it arrives straight into a major broker downgrade: Morgan Stanley cut the stock to neutral last week and lowered its target by 35% to questioning when Agentforce revenue actually shows up. The shares closed at right on that new target. A one-day signal into a fresh downgrade is not where we want to spend capital. OPS: adj (val_adj -10 at recomputed anchor MoS -2.09), six below the 65 floor. Quality_Pass TRUE (F-Score 7, rank 15/26, FAIR_VALUE, Bargain T) - clears the gate that killed AMZN/SNOW/NET. Conviction trail 0/0/0/69 = zero stability. L1: FailedBreakdown_Up_20D is the weakest chase family (own-book cell n=1, stop-first 1.0). Entry 184.02 = close, ED -0.0, clean non-extended entry, range 181.67-186.37. Sizing had it been taken: @ 184.02 (x0.75). 12wk 191.72 well under the DCF - no annotation. |\n| NET | Cloudflare, Inc. | 278.98 | NO ACTION | 278.98 | 271.04 | 288.51 (+3.4%) | 310.73 (+11.4%) | 357.54 (+28.2%) | Cloudflare triggered a buy signal but ranks last of all 26 valued names in the book on fundamental quality, and its per-share earning power is effectively zero, which makes any margin-of-safety measure meaningless. The setup is a weak pattern on our record, and the conviction score does not clear our bar even before the quality screen blocks it. No action. OPS: adj (val_adj -10), below the 65 floor, AND Quality_Pass FALSE with the worst rank in the book (F-Score 3, 26/26). MoS_FV -940.26 is a broken denominator (EPV /sh) - see systemic finding 7; it pins val_adj at the floor for a reason unrelated to valuation. size_mod 0.5 follows mechanically from MoS <= -3. Ledgered per the UT-12(d)(iii) measurement-gap backlog so the quality gate's cost on high-Buy_Rank names can be priced. |\n\n_Track record: 9 graded decisions · 1-week calibration 0.134._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.", "date_published": "2026-08-01T00:00:00.000Z", "tags": [ "ustech", "us", "eod" ] }, { "id": "ustech-2026-07-31", "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ustech/2026-07-31/", "title": "US Tech — 2026-07-31", "summary": "EOD 2026-07-31", "content_text": "## USTECH End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-07-31\n\nEOD 2026-07-31\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing | 403.31 | SELL ALL | — | 406.37 | n/a | n/a | 341.79 | Completing the exit of a residual TSMC stake that has traded below its stop for six straight sessions with no directional signal from the model and a twelve-week projection still 15% under the current price. Yesterday's violent AI-hardware rebound (TSMC +7.65% on Microsoft's 43% Azure growth) is taken as a materially better exit price rather than a new thesis - the business case for TSMC was never in question, but this position's own risk line was broken and never repaired. OPERATIONAL: 5th arming of an exit unfilled since 07-25 (executor stall) - UT-11 re-fire, not a re-litigation. L2 leg-2 (12wk 341.79 = -15.25%) holds; leg-1 (stop break) has narrowed -7.80% -> -0.75% (0.15 ATR) and is no longer decisive - stated openly, exit retained on the residual/incomplete-exit basis plus close below EMA20 412.41 and EMA50 415.30. G2 suppresses the valuation amplify (DCF vs, broken ADR scaling, 13th session). PROFIT_ARMED at T12_Progress 118.0 on a -7.92% position is the UT-9 arm-on-loss mislabel, inert. Better fill vs the 07-30 ref: +on; proceeds, realized ~-. WITHDRAWAL TRIGGER: two consecutive settled closes above 406.37 with a rising 12wk cancels this exit and re-bases the residual as a fresh position. News is a bullish counter-signal weighed and not overriding. L2/L3/L4/L5/L8, UT-9/UT-11 applied. |\n| SNOW | Snowflake Inc. | 298.10 | NO ACTION | 294.19 | 253.53 | 318.58 (+8.3%) | 375.50 (+27.6%) | 424.79 (+44.4%) | Standing aside on Snowflake despite a fresh 52-week high, because the quality screen fails outright: earnings power measured on current profitability is negative, the fundamental strength score is mid-pack, and the company ranks 23rd of 26 in this book on quality. The entire investment case rests on a long-dated growth projection rather than cash the business generates today, and the shares already trade above our estimate of intrinsic worth. Momentum and the AWS partnership are real; they are not a substitute for the balance-sheet test. OPERATIONAL: hard Quality_Pass gate FALSE (F-Score 5, EPV -/sh, rank 23/26) - 7th consecutive session blocked; independently below the floor at adj 57 (65 conv - 8 val_adj on MoS -1.66, bias 0). Telling divergence: price +5.4% to a new high while conviction collapsed, so the engine de-rated the setup as it extended - the 'best-formed setup in the book' argument no longer holds on its own terms. L1 breakout-family discount also applies. Untaken @ 294.19 buy-stop (size mod 0.75). Estimates at f=0.30: 1wk 318.58, 4wk 375.50, 12wk 424.79 - the 12wk exceeds the DCF anchor (projection assumes growth beyond priced-in). |\n| AAPL | Apple | 333.43 | NO ACTION | 323.85 | 315.87 | 327.41 (+1.1%) | 335.72 (+3.7%) | 404.07 (+24.8%) | Passing on Apple for a second session, by the narrowest margin. The setup is the kind this book likes - a pullback toward the average trading price inside an uptrend - but the shares still trade well above what the cash flows justify, which docks the score just under our buy threshold. Thursday night's results were strong at the headline (record June quarter, revenue 4bn +16%, iPhone +22%, earnings vs expected) yet soft where the multiple lives: services and Greater China both missed, and management is absorbing a worldwide memory and processor shortage that is already forcing Mac and iPad price rises. The stock fell 3-4% after hours, which walks it back toward our buy level rather than away - worth another look once the reaction settles. OPERATIONAL: adj 63 vs the 65 floor (73 conv, val_adj -10 on MoS -3.26, bias 0) - second session missing by exactly two. L4: the after-hours ~325.91 print (+0.6% above the 323.85 buy-limit) is not a settled close and does not re-rate conviction; L6 forbids trading the print reaction. RE-ARM at the next EOD on the settled 07-31 close at the then-live Entry_Price, require adj >= 65, no gap-chase. Untaken @ 323.85 (size mod 0.5). Estimates at f=0.30: 1wk 327.41, 4wk 335.72, 12wk 404.07 - the 12wk exceeds the DCF anchor. |\n\n_Track record: 9 graded decisions · 1-week calibration 0.134._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.", "date_published": "2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z", "tags": [ "ustech", "us", "eod" ] }, { "id": "ustech-2026-07-29", "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ustech/2026-07-29/", "title": "US Tech — 2026-07-29", "summary": "EOD 2026-07-29", "content_text": "## USTECH End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-07-29\n\nEOD 2026-07-29\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing | 392.31 | SELL ALL | — | 406.37 | n/a | n/a | 346.32 | Sell the last 103 TSMC shares in full at the open. The stock has now closed below our 406.37 risk level for a fourth straight session and the gap is widening, not healing - 392.31 is 3.5% through the stop, versus 1.8% a day ago and 0.7% before that. The model's own 12-week view has fallen again to 346.32, roughly 12% BELOW today's price, and the signal engine has printed no tradeable setup four sessions running. TSMC's business is emphatically not the problem: second-quarter revenue grew 33.7% to 2bn with gross margin of 67.7% and operating margin of 60.3%, both above guidance; full-year growth guidance was raised above 40%; the September quarter is guided to -45.8bn, up 37% year on year; and Citi lifted its target price to NTWhat the market is repricing is the cost of getting there - a -64bn capital spending guide and the depreciation and margin drag that follows - and it has taken the shares roughly 15% lower in a month. That is a valuation debate we can re-enter at a better price. It is not a swing-trade setup, and our stop has already done its job. Booking the loss at about -10.4% (roughly -) frees of capital. OPERATIONAL: this is the THIRD arming of the same exit, not a new decision - the 2026-07-25 verdict armed it for the 07-27 open and the 2026-07-28 verdict re-armed it for the 07-28 open; neither filled because the auto-executor has been idle since 07-23, which has cost a further ~2.65% of slippage. UT-11/UT-3/L3: an unfilled armed exit is an incomplete exit - re-fire at market-on-open. Both L2 legs are met (decisive stop-break AND negative 12wk), so this is a full completion. PROFIT_ARMED on the row is the UT-9 arm-on-loss mislabel (Gain_ATR -2.81, position underwater) and is inert - loss-prevention, not a profit-take. Valuation amplify suppressed by G2 (DCF anchor vs price, ~8.7x broken). 4wk/1wk n/a - NO TRADE prints a blank Target_Price; model band 371.56-412.76. |\n| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | 392.10 | SELL 50% | — | 358.88 | 414.96 | 468.29 | 540.61 | Sell half the Dell position - 174 of - at the open, and keep the other half working. Our 423.45 stop did not just break, it broke hard: Dell closed at 392.10, some 7.4% below the level we had written down as our risk line, after trading as low as 358.88 (-14%) intraday. A decisive break of our own stop is a signal-based reason to reduce, full stop. The trigger was not only sector beta: an analyst note singled out Dell's dependence on a small group of hyperscale customers and revived doubts about whether booming AI-server volume can carry acceptable margins - the same bear case behind the 07-16 UBS downgrade. Peers confirm it is high-beta AI hardware being repriced rather than the market as a whole, with HPE down about 8% and Super Micro about 5%, while software and Apple actually rose. The signal degraded with the price: conviction slipped from a stable, the internal read fell to WATCH, and volatility turned bearish as the average daily range blew out from 30..1 points. Why half and not all: the model's 12-week view is still 540.61, some 38% above the close, the four-week target 468.29 is 19% higher, the trend reading is still bullish with the price above its 50-day and far above its 200-day average, and the stock closed 9.3% off its low on a genuine intraday reversal. The underlying business news has not changed - 4bn of AI server orders, a 3bn backlog, an FY27 guide of about $60bn in AI-optimised server revenue, and the stock is still up around 200% this year even after the crash. What changed is the market's willingness to pay for it. Selling everything into a panic close on a name whose forward view is intact would be the mirror image of the mistake we made cutting NBIS. So we halve the risk and let the rest work. Booking roughly -10.8% on the half sold (about -) frees OPERATIONAL: L2's full completion needs stop-break AND a negative 12wk; only the stop-break leg is met (12wk +37.9%), so this is a staged de-risk, not a completion - the same tranche pattern used on TSM. G1/G2/G3 do not apply: those gates protect an uptrending WINNER from a divergence/valuation trim, and this is a -10.77% position on a fired stop. STOP RE-BASE (deliberate exception, flagged): the 423.45 ratchet fired and the half-exit is the response to it; the residual are re-based to the model's current chandelier level of 358.88 (today's low), capping further residual risk at This is a re-base after a fired stop, NOT a ratchet-down of a live stop on an unbroken position. UT-10 vindicated - both prior pullback ADDs (07-10 @411.73, 07-15 @419.03) graded stop_hit and a third would have compounded today. Escalation on the residual: a decisive close below 358.88, a 12wk flip negative, or 2 consecutive NO TRADE completes the exit. Estimates are the forward view partly foregone, f=0.30 per L5; 12wk 540.61 exceeds the DCF anchor - projection assumes growth beyond priced-in; model band 341.76-460.48. Executes into the 07-29 FOMC (horizon band +/-3%, stance tighten-trail) and ahead of Microsoft's Azure capex guide that evening, which is the key read-through for this complex. |\n| AAPL | Apple | 340.08 | NO ACTION | 341.23 | 317.33 | 355.57 (+4.2%) | 389.02 (+14.0%) | 414.24 (+21.4%) | Apple was the strongest buy on the board and we stood down deliberately - worth recording why, because for the first time the entry was actually clean. It prints a STRONG BUY at conviction 93 and the #1 buy rank, and the model entry of 341.23 sits right at the 340.08 close rather than 6-8% above it as it did on the two previous attempts, so there was no chasing involved. The problem is the calendar. Apple reports FY26 Q3 tomorrow after the close, with a two-sided expected move of about 5%, and it is Tim Cook's final earnings call as chief executive - an unusually binary event for a stock at an all-time high and a roughly trillion market value, with the gross-margin guide under pressure from rising memory costs. Buying at tomorrow's open means owning a full position through that print one session later. Our own decision a day earlier explicitly set the order to stand down before this event; honouring that plan rather than talking ourselves out of it is the discipline. The bull case is real and unchanged - Apple is the direct beneficiary of the rotation that wrecked the rest of this book, rewarded for restrained AI capital spending while Dell, TSMC and Micron are punished for spending heavily - but that case will still be there on Friday, with the uncertainty resolved. RE-ARM TRIGGER: the 07-31 open, post-print. Take the then-live Entry_Price from the 07-31 snapshot, do NOT chase a positive gap (L6), and require adjusted conviction >=65 after val_adj. OPERATIONAL: two further discounts stack against taking it today - the family flipped out of the L1-favoured PullbackBuy_VWAP into MomentumContinuation_Up, this book's worst graded buy cell (n=2, 0/2 at 1wk, median error -4.19%, report-only per UT-12), and the entry is a buy-stop at the 52-week high (High_52W 342.89 = today's high). Quality gate PASS; MoS -3.16 gives val_adj -10 and 0.5x size, so adjusted conviction 83 would have cleared the 65 floor. Sizing had it been taken: @ 341.23 ~= Estimates at f=0.30 per L5; 12wk 414.24 exceeds the DCF anchor - projection assumes growth beyond priced-in. Ledgered direction:none/optional:true so the counterfactual grader prices exactly what standing down through the print cost or saved. |\n| SNOW | Snowflake Inc. | 270.36 | NO ACTION | 265.63 | 251.20 | 272.07 (+2.4%) | 287.08 (+8.1%) | 384.40 (+44.7%) | Not taken for a fifth consecutive session, and it remains the best-formed setup in the book. Snowflake prints a buy at conviction 71 and the #2 buy rank on the pullback-to-VWAP pattern that is historically our most reliable entry, with a model entry of 265.63 just below the 270.36 close, a 12-week view 44% higher, and - notably - it barely moved on a day when the AI hardware complex fell 8-14%, closing down less than 1%. It is blocked twice over. On valuation, a margin of safety of -1.39 trims adjusted conviction to 64, one point below our 65 floor. Independently and more decisively, it fails the quality screen outright: the F-Score reads 5 and earnings-power value is actually NEGATIVE at -a share, meaning the entire intrinsic case rests on a projection of future cash flows rather than anything the business earns today - and our hard gate blocks new entries on that basis regardless of signal strength. The news tape does not argue the screen is wrong: product revenue reaccelerated and BofA has it as a Q3 top idea, but the shares trade near 18x sales and insiders have been persistent sellers. We stand aside. OPERATIONAL: two independent blocks (adj 64 < 65 floor; Quality_Pass FALSE hard gate on NEW entries only - it would not block an ADD to a held name). Ledgered direction:none/optional:true so the counterfactual grader prices what the gate costs - the fifth consecutive session this exact pattern recurs, which is now a standing systemic finding rather than a one-off. Estimates at f=0.30 per L5; 12wk 384.40 exceeds the DCF anchor. |\n\n_Track record: 9 graded decisions · 1-week calibration 0.134._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.", "date_published": "2026-07-29T00:00:00.000Z", "tags": [ "ustech", "us", "eod" ] }, { "id": "ustech-2026-07-28", "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ustech/2026-07-28/", "title": "US Tech — 2026-07-28", "summary": "EOD 2026-07-28", "content_text": "## USTECH End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-07-28\n\nEOD 2026-07-28\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing | 399.09 | SELL ALL | — | 406.37 | n/a | n/a | 363.69 | Exit the last 103 TSMC shares in full at the open. The stock has now closed decisively below our 406.37 risk level for a third straight session (399.09, -1.79% through the stop), the model's own 12-week view has fallen to 363.69 - roughly 9% BELOW today's price - and the signal engine has printed no tradeable setup three sessions running. TSMC's business is not the problem: Q2 profit hit a record (+77% y/y) and full-year growth guidance was raised above 40%. The market is repricing the cost of getting there - a -64bn capex guide, 14% above the prior range, and the margin compression that comes with it - and has taken the shares down about 15% in a month. That is a valuation debate we can re-enter later; it is not a swing-trade setup, and our stop has done its job. Booking the loss at roughly -8.9% (~-) frees of capital. OPERATIONAL: this is NOT a new decision - the 2026-07-25 verdict armed this same exit for the 07-27 open and it was never filled (auto-executor idle since 07-23), costing a further -1.1%. UT-11/UT-3/L3: an unfilled armed exit is an incomplete exit - re-fire at market-on-open, do not re-recommend a third time. PROFIT_ARMED on the row is the UT-9 arm-on-loss mislabel (Gain_ATR -2.46, position underwater) and is inert - this is loss-prevention, not a profit-take. Valuation amplify suppressed by G2 (DCF anchor vs price, ~9x broken). |\n| AAPL | Apple | 336.91 | BUY — QUEUED @315.04 | 315.04 | 306.90 | 318.68 (+1.2%) | 327.16 (+3.8%) | 405.45 (+28.7%) | Place a good-til-cancelled buy limit at 315.04 for - we want Apple, but not at Monday's record high. The setup is the strongest this book has produced: a fifth consecutive strengthening session on the pullback-to-VWAP pattern that is our most reliable entry, with conviction at a maximum 100 and the #1 buy rank. The story behind it is the mirror image of what is hurting the rest of the book: Apple closed at an all-time high Monday, took the most-valuable-company crown back from Nvidia at a 94tn market cap, and is up 22% year-to-date precisely because it has NOT spent heavily on AI infrastructure - the same restraint the market is punishing TSMC and Dell for lacking. The catch is price: at 336.91 the stock sits about 6.5% above the model's entry, and on intrinsic value it is already expensive (margin of safety -3.16), so we halve the position size and refuse to chase - the order fills only on a genuine pullback to 315.04 or not at all. Risk is capped at the 306.90 stop, about one ATR below entry (on the full). OPERATIONAL: replaces (does not carry) the stale 07-25 GTC @307.05 - repriced to the live anchor Entry_Price 315.04 per the provenance rule, re-derived on current. expires_on deliberately set to 2026-07-29 rather than the mechanical anchor+3 (07-30): Apple reports FY26 Q3 on 07-30 AMC (Event Horizon band +/-5%, stance add-after-print) and FOMC lands 07-29 - leaving a live limit into an earnings print is the L6 gap-fill failure mode, so the order stands down before the event and the name is re-armed after the print. Size 0.5x on MoS <= -3; quality gate PASS; scorecard bias 0 (PullbackBuy_VWAP/buy cell n=2, report-only - L1 caution applies). 12wk 405.45 exceeds the DCF anchor - projection assumes growth beyond priced-in. |\n| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | 426.91 | HOLD | — | 423.45 | n/a | 488.13 | 608.35 | Keep all and keep the 423.45 stop. Dell fell 2.4% with the wider AI-hardware complex on Monday but nothing in the position's own case broke: the signal has held the same bullish reading at conviction 61 for three straight sessions, there is no exit warning on the row, and the model's 12-week view of 608.35 is still 42% above the current 426.91. The business news continues to support the thesis - 4bn of AI server orders in the last quarter, a 3bn backlog, FY27 revenue guided to -169bn (+47%) with ~$60bn of that from AI servers, and the stock up 213% year-to-date. The known bear case is unchanged and already in the price: AI server gross margins near 18% and the resulting UBS downgrade on 07-16. We are down 2.84% against our cost, which is noise on a 30-point ATR. OPERATIONAL: the model's own trailing stop has eased to 411.60 as the pullback ran; hold the higher recorded 423.45 (never ratchet down). Cushion is thin - the close sits only 0.81% above the stop into a two-sided FOMC on 07-29 (Event Horizon band +/-3%, stance tighten-trail). Read the asymmetry correctly: a close below 423.45 is a RE-EVALUATE/monitor trigger, NOT an automatic exit - L2 requires a stop-break AND a negative 12wk, and the 12wk is +42.5% positive, so G3 (do not cut a winner with a live forward view) governs. UT-10: no ADD - the two prior pullback ADDs (07-10 @411.73, 07-15 @419.03) both graded stop_hit; do not pyramid into a 30.6-ATR reset. 12wk 608.35 exceeds the DCF anchor. |\n| SNOW | Snowflake Inc. | 272.92 | NO ACTION | 272.92 | 265.52 | 280.18 (+2.7%) | 297.12 (+8.9%) | 388.91 (+42.5%) | Not taken, and worth recording why - this was the cleanest entry available. Snowflake prints a buy at conviction 76 and the #2 buy rank with the close sitting exactly on the model entry of 272.92, so there is no chasing involved, and the 12-week view of 388.91 is 42% higher. It is blocked by our quality screen: the F-Score/free-cash-flow test fails, and the earnings-power valuation is actually negative at -a share, meaning the entire intrinsic case rests on a discounted-cash-flow projection of future growth rather than anything the business earns today. The news tape does not argue the screen is wrong - product revenue did reaccelerate to 34% growth and BofA named it a Q3 top idea, but the shares trade near 18x sales and insiders have been selling steadily (director Frank Slootman sold for on 07-20/21, an EVP sold on 07-14). We stand aside. OPERATIONAL: hard quality gate blocks NEW entries only (would not block an ADD to a held name); adjusted conviction 69 cleared the 65 floor before the gate. L1 also discounts the FailedBreakdown_Up_20D family it flipped into (own-book cell n=1, stop-first 1.0). Ledgered direction:none/optional:true so the counterfactual grader prices what the gate costs - fourth consecutive session this pattern recurs (see 07-11 Q4 measurement gap). |\n\n_Track record: 9 graded decisions · 1-week calibration 0.134._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.", "date_published": "2026-07-28T00:00:00.000Z", "tags": [ "ustech", "us", "eod" ] }, { "id": "ustech-2026-07-25", "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ustech/2026-07-25/", "title": "US Tech — 2026-07-25", "summary": "EOD 2026-07-25", "content_text": "## USTECH End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-07-25\n\nEOD 2026-07-25\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| AAPL | Apple | 333.02 | BUY — QUEUED @307.05 | 307.05 | 298.50 | 310.86 (+1.2%) | 319.75 (+4.1%) | 395.90 (+28.9%) | Strengthening PullbackBuy_VWAP (L1 favored family): WATCH->BUY->BUY->STRONG BUY over four snapshots, conviction ->80, Buy_Rank #1, quality gate PASS (F=9). Valuation GROWTH_PRICED_IN MoS -3.16 trims conviction to 70 (still above the 65 floor) and halves size. Close 333.02 is ~8.5% above the 307.05 pullback entry (ED -3.04), so no market buy - queue a GTC buy-limit at 307.05 that only fills on a genuine pullback (no-chase, counterfactual-backed). Size 0.5x (MoS<=-3); stop 298.50; 12wk 395.90 exceeds the DCF anchor (growth beyond priced-in). Expires 2026-07-29 (3 sessions). |\n| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing | 403.41 | SELL ALL | — | 406.37 | n/a | n/a | 377.50 | L2 stop-break completion (signal-based loss-cut, CLAUDE.md §9): the residual's settled close 403.41 finally closed BELOW its 406.37 stop (-0.73%, decisive) with a negative 12wk (377.50) and a 2nd consecutive NO TRADE print (conviction collapsed to 0). deteriorated -5.12%->-7.9%, Gain_ATR -1.47->-2.28. Full exit of the 103-share residual at the Monday open (MOO, UT-3 escalation - confirmed, don't re-recommend). NOT a profit-take: PROFIT_ARMED is the UT-9 arm-on-loss mislabel (underwater). Valuation amplify suppressed by G2 (TSM DCF vs price ~9x off, broken) - the exit stands on the stop-break alone. Proceeds realized ~-. |\n| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | 437.50 | HOLD | — | 423.45 | n/a | 495.95 | 623.44 | Bullish read intact: HOLD, conviction stable 61, FailedBreakdown_Up_20D, close 437.50 (-0.4%), -0.43% (~flat vs cost), no Exit_Warning, 12wk 623.44 (+42.5%). Not armed (Gain_ATR negative, T12_Progress 70.18). News confirms AI-server momentum ( AI orders, FY27 AI-server guide, consensus 0 Sells). Model trailing stop eased to 422.89 as ATR shrank - hold the higher recorded 423.45 (never ratchet down); close +3.3% clear. UT-10: no ADD. Escalation: decisive close below 423.45 with a negative 12wk, or 2 consecutive NO TRADE, arms the L2 exit. 12wk exceeds the DCF anchor. |\n\n_Track record: 9 graded decisions · 1-week calibration 0.134._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.", "date_published": "2026-07-25T00:00:00.000Z", "tags": [ "ustech", "us", "eod" ] }, { "id": "ustech-2026-07-24", "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ustech/2026-07-24/", "title": "US Tech — 2026-07-24", "summary": "EOD 2026-07-24", "content_text": "## USTECH End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-07-24\n\nEOD 2026-07-24\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | 439.34 | HOLD | — | 423.45 | n/a | 502.89 | 626.06 | Keep the full Dell position and lift the stop again - after two big up-days the AI-hardware tape cooled and Dell eased 0.6% to 439.34, but the bull case is intact. Dell's AI-server momentum is holding: AI orders last quarter, FY27 AI-optimized server revenue guided (+144%), non-GAAP EPS (+74% YoY), and Wall Street sits at a consensus with 0 Sells - the only debate is margin mix (gross margin 17.8% vs a legacy 21.1%), which caps the multiple but is not a demand crack. The position is back to roughly break-even on our 439.41 cost, conviction eased but the signal is still the bullish FailedBreakdown family and the 12-week view of 626.06 sits ~42% above the price - a winner to hold, not to trim. OPERATIONAL: no exit arms (no stop break, 12wk strongly positive, no PROFIT_ARMED); the -15pt conviction ease is below the 20pt collapse tick and the name is not armed. RAISE stop 413..45 (model stop, ratchet up only, never down; ~0.50 ATR / 3.6% below close). Escalation = a decisive close below ~407.6 (423.45 - 0.5xATR), a 12wk flip negative, or 2 consecutive NO TRADE arms the L2 exit. UT-10: NO ADD - do not pyramid a fully-recovered name. 12wk 626.06 exceeds the DCF anchor (growth beyond priced-in); 4wk model target 502.89; 1wk n/a (HOLD, no actionable entry); model band 400.37-474.35. L1/L4/L8, UT-10 applied. |\n| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing | 415.58 | HOLD | — | 406.37 | n/a | n/a | 399.05 | Hold the residual half of TSMC on its 406.37 stop - the bearish read collapsed to neutral rather than completing into an exit. After yesterday's 0.8% slip the shares fell another 1.3% to 415.58, and the engine's signal went from a bearish AVOID (conviction 49) to a flat NO TRADE (conviction 0, 'consensus conflict + low conviction'). The 12-week view (399.05) is still ~4% below the price, so the position stays correctly de-risked at half size - but our rule to complete the exit needs a decisive break of the 406.37 stop AND a negative 12wk, and the stop is not broken (price is 2.3% above it); a single NO TRADE print with the stop intact is not a completion basis. We let the residual work rather than sell into weakness. Q2 was a record ( revenue, EPS +74.5% YoY) but the capex raise to -64B plus the Arizona expansion is the margin/AI-spend overhang the tape keeps discounting - neutral, no override; the CEO sees AI demand through 2029-30. OPERATIONAL: L2 re-tested - only the negative-12wk leg holds, the stop-break leg does not -> no completion; not 2 consecutive NO TRADE. G2 SUPPRESSES the valuation amplify (DCF vs price ~9x broken) so the MoS -14.43 is val-blind. UT-9: PROFIT_ARMED (T12_Progress 104.14) on a -5.12% underwater position (Gain_ATR -1.47) = arm-on-loss mislabel, inert. Keep stop 406.37 (ratchet); a decisive close below it with a still-negative 12wk completes the exit. L2/L4/L5/L6/L8, UT-9 applied. |\n| TSLA | Tesla Inc | 319.69 | NO ACTION | 319.69 | 250.57 | 339.41 (+6.2%) | 385.42 (+20.6%) | 228.09 (-28.7%) | Tesla was the loudest buy signal on the board today - a STRONG BUY at conviction 85, top of the ranking, with a clean risk-defined entry right at the 319.69 close and a deeply oversold RSI of 29 - and we still passed, correctly. Three things block it. First, it fails our quality screen outright (F-Score/FCF gate reads FALSE), which hard-blocks a new entry regardless of how loud the signal is. Second, and decisively, the model's own 12-week projection is 228.09 - roughly 29% BELOW the entry price - so the 'STRONG BUY' is an oversold-bounce call fighting a bearish forward view, not a trend we want to own. Third, it is a one-snapshot flip (three AVOID prints then a sudden STRONG BUY), which is low-stability. A bounce trade against the book's rules, not an investment. Watch it only if the 12-week view turns positive AND the quality inputs improve. OPERATIONAL: ledgered direction:none / optional:true so the counterfactual grader prices what the quality-gate + negative-12wk block cost; val_adj -10 (MoS -17.86) would leave adj 75 absent the hard gate; 1wk shown at f=0.30 per L5. L1 (no reversal chase into a bearish 12wk) applied. |\n\n_Track record: 9 graded decisions · 1-week calibration 0.134._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.", "date_published": "2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z", "tags": [ "ustech", "us", "eod" ] }, { "id": "ustech-2026-07-23", "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ustech/2026-07-23/", "title": "US Tech — 2026-07-23", "summary": "EOD 2026-07-23", "content_text": "## USTECH End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-07-23\n\nEOD 2026-07-23\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | 441.80 | HOLD | — | 413.77 | n/a | 510.90 | 629.56 | Keep the full Dell position and lift the stop - the drawdown that put us underwater has fully reversed. Dell jumped ~10% on 07-22 (to 441.80) on broadening AI-server demand and better pricing, after Wedbush flagged Super Micro's strong preliminary gross margins as a read-through for the whole AI-hardware chain; management's raised FY27 outlook ( revenue including AI servers on a backlog) backs it up. The position is now marginally ABOVE our 439.41 cost (Gain_ATR +0.07 from -1.76 a week ago), conviction has climbed, the signal is the bullish FailedBreakdown family, and the 12-week view of 629.56 sits ~42% above the price - so this is a winner to hold, not a position to trim. OPERATIONAL: no exit arms (no stop break, 12wk strongly positive, no PROFIT_ARMED - the underwater condition cleared); RAISE stop 388..77 (model stop, ratchet up only, never down; ~0.81 ATR / 6.3% below close). Escalation = a decisive close below ~396.5 (413.77 - 0.5xATR), a 12wk flip negative, or 2 consecutive NO TRADE arms the L2 exit. UT-10: NO ADD - do not pyramid a fully-recovered name on a 34.5 ATR after a +9% day. 12wk 629.56 exceeds the DCF anchor (growth beyond priced-in); 4wk model target 510.90; 1wk n/a (HOLD, no actionable entry); model band 374.72-458.11. L1/L4/L8, UT-10 applied. |\n| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing | 421.21 | HOLD | — | 406.37 | n/a | n/a | 406.72 | Hold the residual half of TSMC on its 406.37 stop - the exit case did not mature into a completion this session. Yesterday we halved the position into a +5.5% rebound; today the shares slipped 0.8% to 421.21 and the engine's bearish read actually WEAKENED (conviction. The model's 12-week view (406.72) is still ~3.4% below the price and the label is still AVOID, so the position stays de-risked - but our rule to complete the exit needs a decisive break of the 406.37 stop AND a negative 12wk, and the stop is not broken (price is 1.2% above it). A falling bearish conviction on an already-halved residual is not a fresh trigger, so we let the other half work rather than sell into weakness. Q2 was a blowout (net profit +77% YoY, FY26 growth guide raised above 40%), but the capex raise to -64B is the margin/AI-spend overhang the tape keeps discounting - neutral either way, no override. OPERATIONAL: L2 re-tested - only the negative-12wk leg holds, the stop-break leg does not -> no completion. G2 SUPPRESSES the valuation amplify (DCF vs price ~9x broken) so the MoS -14.43 is val-blind. UT-9: PROFIT_ARMED (T12_Progress 103.56) on a -3.84% underwater position (Gain_ATR -1.01) = arm-on-loss mislabel, inert - this is a loss-residual, not a profit-take. Keep stop 406.37 (close-1xATR from the 07-22 trim, ratchet); a decisive close below 406.37 with a still-negative 12wk completes the exit. L2/L4/L5/L6/L8, UT-9 applied. |\n| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc | 552.33 | NO ACTION | 552.33 | 526.88 | 575.09 (+4.1%) | 628.19 (+13.7%) | 733.54 (+32.8%) | AMD was the book's best-looking buy today and we still passed. It topped the ranking at conviction 76 and, unusually, was NOT extended - the model entry sits right at the 552.33 close, a clean risk-defined setup. But it fails the quality screen outright: our F-Score/FCF quality gate reads FALSE, which hard-blocks a NEW entry regardless of conviction, and the valuation work says the shares already trade well beyond what the growth justifies (margin of safety -17.6, a 10-point conviction haircut). The signal family (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D) is also this book's weakest historical performer. Clean entry, top conviction, killed by the quality gate. Watch it: if the quality inputs improve (or the gate is confirmed miscalibrated) this becomes a genuine candidate at the same entry. OPERATIONAL: ledgered direction:none / optional:true so the counterfactual grader prices what the quality gate cost (closes UT-12 backlog item (iii) - AMD has printed a gate-blocked high Buy_Rank repeatedly); 1wk shown at f=0.30 per L5. L1/UT-12 applied. |\n\n_Track record: 9 graded decisions · 1-week calibration 0.134._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.", "date_published": "2026-07-23T00:00:00.000Z", "tags": [ "ustech", "us", "eod" ] }, { "id": "ustech-2026-07-22", "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ustech/2026-07-22/", "title": "US Tech — 2026-07-22", "summary": "EOD 2026-07-22", "content_text": "## USTECH End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-07-22\n\nEOD 2026-07-22\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing | 424.61 | SELL 50% | 424.61 | 406.37 | n/a | n/a | 407.07 (-4.1%) | TSMC's exit case has half-repaired, so we take profits on the de-risk rather than complete it: after a +5.5% session the shares closed at 424.61, back above the 50-day average and only 0.5% under our stop, which is no longer a decisive break - but the model's 12-week view (407.07) is still 4.1% BELOW the price and the engine still reads the name bearishly (AVOID, conviction 64 and rising) on a position we are underwater on. Q2 was a blowout (EPS +74.5%, FY26 revenue growth guided above 40%) yet the rally is a sector-wide AI bid on Taiwan's +83.6% US export orders, not a TSMC re-rating, and the capex raise to -64B is a real margin overhang. So: halve the position into strength at a price 5.5% better than the level the previous verdict was chasing, and keep the other half working with a raised stop. Operational: L2 re-tested and found half-satisfied (stop-break leg healed, negative-12wk leg survives) -> exit SCALED from a full reduce-to-30-residual down to a 50% trim; L3/UT-11 escalation of a FOURTH consecutive 30-share partial fill (txn ustech-20260722-0001) - act at the right size, do not drip a fifth session; G2 SUPPRESSES the valuation amplify (DCF vs price is ~10x broken) so the MoS<=-3 tier bump is deliberately NOT applied; UT-9 - PROFIT_ARMED prints at T12_Progress 104.31 on a -3.06% underwater position (Gain_ATR -0.74) = arm-on-loss mislabel, inert, this is a loss-trim not a profit-take; L5 f=0.30 (calib -0.299 degenerate); L6 no post-rebound chase. Residual on a raised stop 406.37 (close - 1xATR, ratcheted up from 385.00). Proceeds. |\n| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | 404.15 | HOLD | — | 388.46 | n/a | 466.92 | 568.91 | Keep the full Dell position and lift the stop. The shares rebounded 5.8% to 404.15, which clears last session's stop breach entirely, and the model's read has strengthened for a fourth straight day (conviction, signal flipped to a bullish family) with a 12-week view of 568.91 - roughly 41% above the current price. The business case is intact rather than broken: AI-server revenue of was up 757% year-on-year with a backlog, and the drawdown that put us 8% underwater was a sector-wide valuation reset on memory-cost margin worries, not a demand break. Fair value is neutral here. Operational: no exit arms - L2 needs a stop break AND a negative 12wk and neither holds; no PROFIT_ARMED and the position is underwater so no profit-take path; RAISE stop 384..46 (model stop, ratchet up only, never down); escalation triggers = a decisive close below ~372.7, a 12wk flip negative, or 2 consecutive NO TRADE; UT-10 explicitly NO ADD - do not pyramid into a name 8% underwater on a 31.4 ATR after one bounce session; 12wk 568.91 exceeds the DCF anchor (projection assumes growth beyond priced-in). dividend went ex 07-21 (pays 07-31) - a ~0.16% mechanical drag already in the close, not a signal. |\n| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 207.29 | NO ACTION | 207.29 | 203.79 | 211.49 (+2.0%) | 221.29 (+6.8%) | 199.99 (-3.5%) | Nvidia was the book's strongest buy candidate today and we still passed. It topped the buy ranking at conviction 69 and, unusually, was not extended - the model entry sits right at the 207.29 close. But it fails on two counts: the shares already trade above what our valuation work says the growth justifies (margin of safety -2.3, a 10-point conviction haircut that drops it to 59, under our 65 bar), and - decisively - the model's own 12-week projection of 199.99 is BELOW today's price, so we would be buying into a negative forward view. This signal family is also this book's weakest historical performer. Watch it: a 12-week view that turns positive would make this a genuine candidate at the same entry. Operational: ledgered direction:none / optional:true so the counterfactual grader prices what the quality-and-valuation floor cost (closes UT-12 backlog item (iii)); L1/UT-12 discount on FailedBreakdown_Up_20D (own cell n=1, stop-first 1.0); 1wk shown at f=0.30 per L5. |\n\n_Track record: 8 graded decisions · 1-week calibration -0.299._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.", "date_published": "2026-07-22T00:00:00.000Z", "tags": [ "ustech", "us", "eod" ] }, { "id": "ustech-2026-07-21", "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ustech/2026-07-21/", "title": "US Tech — 2026-07-21", "summary": "EOD 2026-07-21", "content_text": "## USTECH End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-07-21\n\nEOD 2026-07-21\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing | 402.30 | SELL 87.29% | 402.30 | 385.00 | n/a | n/a | 377.71 (-6.1%) | Cut the loss on TSM: sell 206 of and keep only a 30-share tail. TSMC's Q2 was a genuine blowout - record revenue, profit +77% and full-year growth guidance lifted above 40% with Arizona spending raised to - but the market has spent five sessions selling that news, knocking the shares ~7% from the print on fears that the -64B capex bill compresses margins. Our own forward view has now flipped decisively negative: the 12-week projection has slid ->, i.e. 6% BELOW today's price, while the stock sits 5.7% under its protective stop and 8.2% underwater on cost. Strong fundamentals the tape refuses to pay for are not a reason to keep holding a broken chart, so we step out and leave a small tail in case the AI cycle reasserts. OPERATIONAL: third re-fire of the same armed exit - the 07-17 and 07-18 proposals each executed as only, so the de-risk is still incomplete; UT-11/L3/UT-3 say escalate the residual now, do not re-defer. L2 fully satisfied (decisive break of the 426.80 stop + negative 12wk + bearish/absent signal); row label is NO TRADE (conv 0, consensus conflict) but the label is not required. Residual on stop 385.00 (close - 1xATR); close 402.30 still above EMA200 359.77 so not a full below-EMA200 exit. Valuation val-blind: DCF vs price is broken -> G2 suppress, MoS -16.05 not applied. UT-9: PROFIT_ARMED prints (T12_Progress 106.51) on a -8.15% underwater position (Gain_ATR -2.10) = arm-on-loss mislabel, inert - this is a loss-cut, not a profit-take. Estimates: 1wk/4wk n/a (no Target_Price on a NoTrade row; model band 388.83-447.08), 12wk 377.71 (-6.1%); f=0.30 per L5 (calib_1w -0.299 degenerate). Execution pending the next US open 2026-07-21; reprice if the open gaps >~1.5%; grade from the execution price. L2/L3/L4/L5/L6/L8, UT-3/UT-9/UT-11 applied. |\n| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | 381.88 | HOLD | — | 384.97 | n/a | n/a | 544.18 | Keep all 347 Dell shares and hold the 384.97 stop. The position is uncomfortable - down 13% from our 439.41 average and the shares closed a fraction (0.8%) below our stop - but the damage is a sector-wide repricing of AI hardware, not a break in Dell's business: revenue grew 88% year over year last quarter, AI-server sales alone were, and management guides to of AI servers on -169B of total revenue this fiscal year. What knocked the stock was UBS moving to Neutral on valuation and worries that GPU-heavy servers dilute margins (gross margin 18% vs 21%), after a 250% year-to-date run. Our own 12-week projection still points to 544, some 42% above today's price, and the model is again reading a pullback-buy setup rather than a breakdown - so this is a drawdown to sit through, not a position to dump into the reset. OPERATIONAL: the 0.8% stop breach is ~0.09 ATR on a 32.70 ATR - NOT decisive - and L2 requires a stop-break AND a negative 12wk; 12wk is strongly positive (+42.5%), action is HOLD (no NoTrade streak), close is far above EMA200 237.55 and above EMA50 366.46 -> exit does NOT arm. No Exit_Warning; conviction rose. Keep stop 384.97 (ratchet - do not lower to the model 384.72). Escalation: a decisive break below ~368.6 (384.97 - 0.5xATR), a 12wk flip negative, or 2 consecutive NO TRADE arms the L2 exit at the next close. UT-10: NO ADD - do not pyramid a PullbackBuy_VWAP into an already-underwater name in a high-ATR sector reset (both prior ADDs graded stop_hit). 12wk 544.18 exceeds DCF anchor (growth beyond priced-in); 1wk/4wk n/a (HOLD, no model target); model band 338.37-441.04. L1/L2/L4/L8, UT-10 applied. |\n\n_Track record: 7 graded decisions · 1-week calibration -0.299._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.", "date_published": "2026-07-21T00:00:00.000Z", "tags": [ "ustech", "us", "eod" ] }, { "id": "ustech-2026-07-18", "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ustech/2026-07-18/", "title": "US Tech — 2026-07-18", "summary": "EOD 2026-07-18", "content_text": "## USTECH End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-07-18\n\nEOD 2026-07-18\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing | 398.37 | SELL 88.72% | 398.37 | 380.00 | n/a | 403.50 (+1.3%) | 383.29 (-3.8%) | Complete the armed L2 exit: sell 236 more of TSM (reduce -sh residual on stop 380.00). The prior 07-17 SELL 90% only PARTIALLY executed - the auto-executor sold just @ 392.12, leaving 266 held - so the de-risk is incomplete and per L3/UT-3 escalate rather than re-defer. The bear case has STRENGTHENED: row is bearish AVOID/RallySell_BearTrend (conv 49), Target_12Week flipped from +0.4% flat (07-17) to -3.8% NEGATIVE (383.29 vs close 398.37), and the close is a decisive break of the documented 426.80 stop (GainATR -2.15, -9.05% underwater). L2 fully satisfied (stop-break + negative 12wk + bearish signal). Keep a 30-sh residual (TSMC's record Q2 warrants a small tail; close 398.37 is still above EMA200 359.04 so not a full below-EMA200 exit) on stop 380.00 (close - 1xATR). News NEUTRAL for the trade: TSMC Q2 was a blowout (rev +36% YoY, EPS +77%, HPC 66%, + Arizona, FY26 guide >40%) but the stock SOLD the news (-2.77% post-print, still sliding) - fundamentals already priced, price action rejected them; news does not cancel the signal exit. Valuation GROWTH_PRICED_IN MoS -16.05 but DCF is broken -> G2 suppress, val-blind. PROFIT_ARMED prints but underwater (GainATR -2.15) = arm-on-loss mislabel, not a profit-take. Execution pending next US open 2026-07-20; reprice if the open gaps >~1.5%; grade from the execution price. Proceeds L2/L3/L4/L5/L6/L8 applied. |\n| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | 396.34 | HOLD | — | 384.97 | n/a | n/a | 564.78 | Hold DELL 347 (avg 439.41, close 396.34, -9.8%). Row is HOLD (conv 49, signal FailedBreakdown_Up_20D), RSI 48.35 neutral, no Exit_Warning; close is above the trailed stop 384.97 and well above EMA200 235.83. L2 does NOT arm - Target_12Week 564.78 is strongly positive (+42.5%) and the action is HOLD not NO TRADE/SELL (the NoTrade streak stays broken). News CONFIRMS hold: the -14% sector drop is an AI-hardware valuation reset (UBS to Neutral on stretched valuation, a report Meta may lease surplus AI capacity, memory-cost margin pressure), not a demand breakdown (DELL +219% YTD) - exactly the whipsaw L2 protects against. Keep stop 384.97 (ratchet - do not lower to the model 368.14). Escalation: a decisive break of 384.97, a 12wk flip negative, or a 2nd consecutive NO TRADE arms the L2 exit at the next close. 12wk 564.78 exceeds DCF anchor (growth beyond priced-in). L1/L2/L4/L8 applied. |\n| AAPL | Apple | 333.74 | BUY-STOP — QUEUED @335.48 | 335.48 | 311.42 | 349.92 (+4.3%) | 383.61 (+14.3%) | 402.61 (+20.0%) | Anticipate-slot ARMED (4th slot, not one of the <=3 ACQUIRE): AAPL printed BUY - ANTICIPATE (AnticipationUp_VCP, conv 73) in 2 of the last 3 snapshots (07-17 + 07-18; 07-16 WATCH), clearing the >=2-of-3 rule + conv>=55 floor - it was a 1/3 near-miss on 07-17 and has now re-armed. Quality gate PASS (Quality_Pass=True). Queue a GTC buy-STOP at the model entry 335.48 (above the 333.74 close) so it fills only on strength - self-limiting, keeps the no-chase rule strict. Sizing: x 0.20 buy_pct x 0.50 Portion = normal, x 0.5 (anticipate slot) x 0.5 (size-mod, MoS -3.02 <= -3) = -> @ 335.48. News CONFIRMS the breakout thesis: Citi raised PT to (Buy, 07-13), iPhone 18 launch in Sept, WWDC-2026 AI reframing (Morgan Stanley key catalyst), all-time Services revenue record, up ~20% YTD near new highs. val_adj -10 (MoS -3.02 -> round x5 = -15, clamped -10) -> adj conv. Estimates f=0.30 vs the 335.48 fill: 1wk ~349.92 (+4.3%), 4wk 383.61 (Target, +14.4%), 12wk 402.61 (+20.0%) - 12wk exceeds DCF anchor (understated/unreliable; growth beyond priced-in). Stop 311.42. expires_on 2026-07-22 (anchor + 3 sessions); auto-withdraw if conv <65 or unfilled. Catalyst: AAPL Q3 earnings 07-30 (~8 td, beyond the fill window). L1/L4/L8 applied. |\n\n_Track record: 6 graded decisions · 1-week calibration -0.299._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.", "date_published": "2026-07-18T00:00:00.000Z", "tags": [ "ustech", "us", "eod" ] }, { "id": "ustech-2026-07-17", "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ustech/2026-07-17/", "title": "US Tech — 2026-07-17", "summary": "EOD 2026-07-17", "content_text": "## USTECH End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-07-17\n\nEOD 2026-07-17\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing | 409.74 | SELL 90.04% | 409.74 | 375.56 | n/a | n/a | 411.26 (+0.4%) | Signal-based exit (L2): sell 90% of TSM ( @ ~409.74; 30-sh residual on model stop 375.56). After 3 consecutive NO TRADE sessions the post-TSMC-print 07-16 close flips to STRONG SELL - REDUCE (RallySell_BearTrend, Sell_Rank #1, conv 37, Portion 90.04%) - the exit both prior entries armed has fired. Decisive stop break (409.74 vs documented stop 426.80, -4.0%; and -2.3% vs pre-print 419.48 = a post-earnings gap-down, the market SOLD the Q2 print), and Target_12Week collapsed ->.26 = now +0.37% flat/dead. L2 fully satisfied (stop-break + dead 12wk + bearish signal). News NEUTRAL for the trade: TSMC Q2 was a blowout (rev +36% YoY, EPS +77%, GM 67.7%, FY26 guide >30%, capex -56B) but the stock sold the news after a +39.9% quarterly run - strong fundamentals already priced, price action rejected them; news does not cancel the signal exit. Valuation GROWTH_PRICED_IN MoS -16.05 but the DCF anchor is broken (DCF vs price) -> G2 suppress, val-blind, portion stays at model 90.04%. PROFIT_ARMED prints but the position is underwater (Gain_ATR -1.65) = arm-on-loss mislabel, not a profit-take. Execution pending next US open 2026-07-17; reprice if the open gaps >~1.5%. Estimates grade from the execution price. L2/L4/L5/L6/L8 applied. |\n| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | 391.38 | HOLD | — | 384.97 | n/a | n/a | 557.72 | Hold DELL 347 (avg 439.41, close 391.38, -10.93%). Row RECOVERED to HOLD (conv 49 from 0; signal flipped back to PullbackBuy_VWAP - the model sees a pullback-buy setup again), RSI 47.2 neutral. Monitor flags a stop breach vs 420.12 (-6.84%) but the L2 exit needs stop-break AND a negative 12wk and Target_12Week 557.72 is strongly positive (+42.5%), and the action is HOLD not NO TRADE/SELL (the 3-session NoTrade streak broke) -> L2 does NOT arm. News CONFIRMS hold: the -14% drop is a sector-wide AI-hardware valuation reset (UBS to Neutral on stretched valuation; a report Meta may lease surplus AI capacity; memory-cost margin pressure), not a demand breakdown (DELL +219% YTD) - exactly the whipsaw L2 protects against. TRAIL-RAISE not a trim: move the monitored stop from the stale 420.12 (now far above price, non-protective) DOWN to the model 384.97, a rational protective floor ~0.19 ATR below the close. Escalation: a decisive break of 384.97, a 12wk flip negative, or a 2nd consecutive NO TRADE arms the L2 exit at the next close. 12wk 557.72 exceeds DCF anchor (growth beyond priced-in). L1/L2/L4/L8 applied. |\n| AAPL | Apple | 333.26 | BUY-STOP | 329.58 | 303.99 | n/a | 380.77 (+15.5%) | 395.57 (+20.0%) | Anticipate-slot NEAR-MISS, not queued (counterfactual watch, optional). AAPL printed BUY - ANTICIPATE (AnticipationUp_VCP, conv 73, entry 329.58, stop 303.99, 12wk 395.57 +18.7%) but only 1 of the last 3 snapshots (07-17 only; 07-16 WATCH, 07-15 NO TRADE) - fails the >=2-of-3 anticipate rule, so no 4th-slot buy-stop today. RSI 71.4 elevated; GROWTH_PRICED_IN MoS -3.02 with an understated DCF anchor ( < close 333, unreliable). Re-arms the anticipate slot if it prints ANTICIPATE again next session (would queue a GTC buy-stop at 329.58, 0.5x size). Logged direction none/optional so the counterfactual grader prices what not-queuing this VCP breakout costs (mirrors the LRCX/SNDK/ASML anticipate-miss pattern). |\n\n_Track record: 5 graded decisions · 1-week calibration -0.299._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.", "date_published": "2026-07-17T00:00:00.000Z", "tags": [ "ustech", "us", "eod" ] }, { "id": "ustech-2026-07-16", "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ustech/2026-07-16/", "title": "US Tech — 2026-07-16", "summary": "EOD 2026-07-16", "content_text": "## USTECH End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-07-16\n\nEOD 2026-07-16\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | 412.68 | HOLD | — | 420.12 | n/a | n/a | 588.07 | Hold DELL 347 (avg 439.41 after the 419.03 pullback-ADD filled; now -6.1%, close 412.68). Row flipped to NO TRADE (conv 0, 1st session, consensus conflict) and the monitor flags a fresh stop breach vs 420.12 (-1.77%), but the L2 exit needs a stop-break AND a negative 12wk and Target_12Week 588.07 is strongly positive (+42.5%), so it does NOT arm; not PROFIT_ARMED (underwater, Gain_ATR -0.72). News CONFIRMS hold: the -14% Wed 07-15 drop was a sector-wide AI-hardware valuation reset (not a demand breakdown; DELL +219% YTD, FY27 AI-server guide, Q1 rev +88% YoY), GF Securities cut to Hold on stretched valuation (caution not a break) -> exactly the stop-break whipsaw L2 protects against. ATR blew out to 37.37. Keep stop 420.12 (broken-and-armed; ratchet, do not lower to model 360.70). Escalation: a 2nd consecutive NO TRADE, a 12wk flip negative, or a decisive break of today's low arms the L2 exit at the next close. 12wk 588.07 exceeds DCF anchor (growth beyond priced-in). L1/L2/L4/L8 applied. |\n| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing | 419.48 | HOLD | — | 426.80 | n/a | n/a | 434.27 | Catalyst-aware HOLD into the TSMC Q2 earnings + analyst meeting on 2026-07-16 (pre-market, today) - Street tilts strongly bullish (guide -40.2B, GM 65.5-67.5%, FY-guidance + 2027-capex raise expected, consensus EPS), news CONFIRMS hold; L6 says don't sell into an expected-bullish print. Row is NO TRADE conv 0 (3rd consecutive session) with a 4th-session stop breach vs 426.80 (-1.72%), but the L2 exit needs stop-break AND a negative 12wk and Target_12Week 434.27 is still +3.5% (collapsing but positive), so it does NOT arm; PROFIT_ARMED prints (T12_Progress 96.59) but the position is underwater (Gain_ATR -1.07) so no profit-take (arm-on-loss mislabel). Valuation GROWTH_PRICED_IN MoS -16 but the DCF anchor is broken (DCF vs price) -> G2 suppress, val-blind. The settled 07-15 close is PRE the print; escalation fires at the post-print 07-16 close - a gap-down, a confirmed lower-high / decisive break of the post-print low, or a 12wk flip negative arms the L2 / sustained-NoTrade exit (do not re-defer beyond the print, L3/UT-3). Keep stop 426.80. L2/L4/L6/L8 applied. |\n\n_Track record: 3 graded decisions · 1-week calibration 0.134._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.", "date_published": "2026-07-16T00:00:00.000Z", "tags": [ "ustech", "us", "eod" ] }, { "id": "ustech-2026-07-15", "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ustech/2026-07-15/", "title": "US Tech — 2026-07-15", "summary": "EOD 2026-07-15", "content_text": "## USTECH End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-07-15\n\nEOD 2026-07-15\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | 457.54 | ADD — QUEUED @419.03 | 419.03 | 420.12 | 432.06 (+3.1%) | 462.46 (+10.4%) | 651.99 (+55.6%) | DELL prints STRONG BUY - ADD conv 100 on PullbackBuy_VWAP with a AI-server backlog, FY27 EPS guide up, 19-up/0-down EPS revisions and a Street 12mo target - a genuinely strong AI-infrastructure name back above our cost. But it just popped +8% and closed 1.32 ATR above the model entry (RSI_DIV), so per no-chase (L6/UT-6) we queue the ADD at the 419.03 model entry rather than chase the pop; fills only on an ~8.4% pullback. Held-name ADD so quality gate N/A; val_adj -10 (MoS -3.06), size-mod 0.5x (MoS<=-3). Stop 420.12 (ratchet, do not lower to model 360.70). 12wk 651.99 exceeds DCF (growth-beyond-priced-in). Auto-withdraw if conv<65 or unfilled by 2026-07-17. |\n| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing | 420.39 | HOLD | — | 426.80 | n/a | n/a | 443.98 | Catalyst-aware HOLD into TSMC Q2 earnings + analyst meeting 2026-07-16 (1 td) - Street tilts strongly bullish (guide -40.2B, GM 65.5-67.5%, FY26 >30%, capex -56B, guidance/capex raise expected), news CONFIRMS hold. Row is NO TRADE conv 0 (2nd session) and close 420.39 sits 0.37 ATR below the 426.80 stop (2nd-session breach), but the L2 exit needs stop-break AND a negative 12wk - Target_12Week 443.98 is still +5.6%, so it does NOT arm; NBIS trim-discipline forbids pre-trimming a shallow nick into a positive catalyst. PROFIT_ARMED prints via T12_Progress 94.69 but the position is underwater (Gain_ATR -1.03) so no profit-take (arm-on-loss mislabel). Valuation GROWTH_PRICED_IN MoS -16 but the DCF anchor is broken (DCF vs price) -> G2 suppress, val-blind. FINAL catalyst-hold session: a post-earnings gap-down, confirmed lower-high / decisive break of the post-print low, or a 12wk flip negative arms the L2 exit at the 07-16 close / 07-17 open (do not re-defer, L3/UT-3). Keep stop 426.80. |\n\n_Track record: 3 graded decisions · 1-week calibration 0.134._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.", "date_published": "2026-07-15T00:00:00.000Z", "tags": [ "ustech", "us", "eod" ] }, { "id": "ustech-2026-07-14", "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ustech/2026-07-14/", "title": "US Tech — 2026-07-14", "summary": "EOD 2026-07-14", "content_text": "## USTECH End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-07-14\n\nEOD 2026-07-14\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing | 421.58 | HOLD | — | 426.80 | n/a | n/a | 456.17 | Hold the 296-sh position (avg 438.02, now -3.75%, close 421.58) through TSMC's Q2 earnings + analyst meeting on 07-16 (~2 trading days out; catalyst-aware hold). The anchor row printed NO TRADE (conviction collapsed, 'Consensus conflict + low conviction') and the monitor flags a breach of the recorded stop 426.80, BUT the break is a shallow 0.28-ATR nick ((426.80-421.58)/18.4) and Target_12Week 456.17 is POSITIVE (+8.2%): the L2 exit requires a stop-break WITH a negative 12wk and there is no confirmed lower-high, so no trim/exit arms. PROFIT_ARMED prints (T12_Progress 92.42%) but the position is underwater (Gain_ATR -0.89) -> a profit-take would bank a loss, not applicable. Per catalyst-aware doctrine + the NBIS trim-discipline lesson, do NOT pre-trim a sub-0.3-ATR nick into a print the market gives ~94.5% beat odds / +16% base-case upside. News CONFIRMS hold: Q2 guide -40.2B, GM 65.5-67.5%, ~32% YoY, capex raised to -56B, 17 buys/0 sells. Documented stop override (426.80 held) until the 07-16 open; exit on a post-earnings gap-down / confirmed lower-high / decisive break of the post-print low. |\n| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | 427.11 | HOLD | — | 420.12 | 436.15 | 457.23 | 608.63 | Hold the 222-sh position (avg 450.88, now -5.27%, close 427.11). HOLD conv rose on PullbackBuy_VWAP; close sits ~1.66% above the raised model stop 420.12, Target_12Week 608.63 is positive, no Exit_Warning, and it is NOT PROFIT_ARMED (Gain_ATR -0.87, underwater) -> no signal-based sell (CLAUDE.md 9); a conviction/drawdown fade on an underwater fresh position is deteriorating-but-held watch only. News confirms-hold: AI-server backlog, FY27 AI-server revenue, +250% YTD, dividend ex-07-21; UBS flags valuation stretched (caution, not a sell). Keep stop 420.12 (model slipped to 388.99 -> do not lower; ratchet discipline). L2 exit arms only on a decisive close below 420.12 WITH a negative 12wk. 12wk 608.63 exceeds the DCF anchor (annotate). L1/L8 applied. |\n\n_Track record: 3 graded decisions · 1-week calibration n/a._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.", "date_published": "2026-07-14T00:00:00.000Z", "tags": [ "ustech", "us", "eod" ] }, { "id": "ustech-2026-07-11", "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ustech/2026-07-11/", "title": "US Tech — 2026-07-11", "summary": "EOD 2026-07-11", "content_text": "## USTECH End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-07-11\n\nEOD 2026-07-11\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing | 434.11 | HOLD | — | 426.80 | n/a | 471.31 | 483.86 | Hold the 296-sh position (avg 438.02) through TSMC's Q2 earnings + analyst meeting on 07-16 (~3 trading days out; catalyst-aware hold, no pre-trim into the print). Conviction faded ->42 on the same FailedBreakdown_Up_20D cell but there is no signal-based sell: close 434.11 (-0.89%) sits ABOVE the model stop 426.80, Target_12Week 483.86 is positive (+11.4%), no Exit_Warning, T12_Progress 89.72% but underwater so NOT PROFIT_ARMED. Keep the monitored stop at 426.80 (model slipped to 424.81 -> do not lower a stop; ratchet discipline). L2 exit arms only on a decisive break of 426.80 WITH a negative 12wk, or a confirmed lower-high post-earnings. |\n\n_Track record: 3 graded decisions · 1-week calibration n/a._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.", "date_published": "2026-07-11T00:00:00.000Z", "tags": [ "ustech", "us", "eod" ] }, { "id": "ustech-2026-07-10", "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ustech/2026-07-10/", "title": "US Tech — 2026-07-10", "summary": "EOD 2026-07-10", "content_text": "## USTECH End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-07-10\n\nEOD 2026-07-10\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | 450.22 | ADD — QUEUED @411.73 | 411.73 | 379.44 | 426.13 (+3.5%) | 459.74 (+11.7%) | 641.56 (+55.8%) | Dell is the book's strongest signal — a fresh STRONG BUY (conv 100, Buy_Rank #1) on the L1-favored PullbackBuy_VWAP cell, the 3rd straight bullish print with conviction climbing ->100; news CONFIRMS (Evercore lifted its target ->Outperform on AI-infrastructure demand outrunning supply, Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buy, Street mean PT). We already hold (buy-stop filled today at 450.88), so this is a disciplined pyramid-ADD queued as a GTC buy-LIMIT at the model pullback entry 411.73 — ~8.5% BELOW the 450.22 close and below our cost, so it fills only on a genuine dip (no chase; L1/UT-6). Priced slightly rich (FAIR_VALUE, MoS_FV -2.50 -> val_adj -10, adj conv 90); size x0.75 -> add (0.6695*222*0.75). Stop 379.44 (model, ~1 ATR / -7.8% from entry). CAVEAT: model 12wk 641.56 far exceeds the DCF anchor and Street mean / Evercore -> realistic near-term objective is the -500 zone; 4wk 459.74 is the trade target. Executes at the next US open 07-10 as a GTC limit, expires 07-15 (spans 07-14 CPI — acceptable: a CPI-driven dip to 411 is a welcome fill). f=0.30 (calib degenerate, L5); L8 pending next open, reprice if the open gaps >~1.5%. |\n| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing | 436.96 | HOLD | — | 426.80 | n/a | 477.59 | 493.86 | Hold the 296-sh position (avg 438.02) through TSMC's Q2 earnings + analyst meeting on 07-16 (4 trading days out; catalyst-aware hold, no pre-trim). Conviction faded on the same FailedBreakdown_Up_20D cell but there is no signal-based sell: close 436.96 (~flat, -0.24%) sits ABOVE the model stop 426.80, Target_12Week 493.86 is positive (+13.0%), no Exit_Warning, not PROFIT_ARMED (underwater, T12_Progress 88.48%). News CONFIRMS hold — Q2 guide -40.2B, GM 65.5-67.5%, EPS +52.6% YoY, Citi PT raised to NTwafer price hikes on ~75% of revenue, likely full-year guidance/capex upgrade at the meeting. Raise the monitored stop 425..80 (model). L2 exit arms only on a decisive break of 426.80 WITH a negative 12wk. |\n\n_Track record: 2 graded decisions · 1-week calibration n/a._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.", "date_published": "2026-07-10T00:00:00.000Z", "tags": [ "ustech", "us", "eod" ] }, { "id": "ustech-2026-07-09", "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ustech/2026-07-09/", "title": "US Tech — 2026-07-09", "summary": "EOD 2026-07-09", "content_text": "## USTECH End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-07-09\n\nEOD 2026-07-09\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | 431.97 | BUY — QUEUED @450.88 | 450.88 | 351.50 | 510.51 (+13.2%) | 649.65 (+44.1%) | 615.56 (+36.5%) | Dell flips to a fresh STRONG BUY on MomentumContinuation_Up (Buy_Rank #1, conv 78) with a self-limiting buy-STOP above market at 450.88 (close 431.97, +4.4% away) -> it fills only if momentum resumes, so no chase (UT-6/L1). Quality gate PASSES (F-Score 8, FAIR_VALUE) so the new entry is allowed, but the name is priced above intrinsic (MoS_FV -2.50 -> val_adj -10, adj conv 68) and Street is cautious: avg PT (~+12% from close) yet shares -8.7% over 30d and UBS says the 2026 near-doubling caps further upside -> news NEUTRAL, the stop-entry structure is the right hedge. Sized 0.6695*1M*0.20=133,900 x0.75 size-mod (MoS in -3..-1) = 100,425 ->. Stop 351.50 is wide (3 ATR, -22%). Executes next US open 07-09 as a GTC buy-stop, expires 07-14 (=CPI day). CAVEATS: model 4wk 649.65 / 12wk 615.56 both exceed DCF & Street anchor (annotate); 4wk target sits ABOVE the 12wk (model inconsistency); PROPOSED-P1 (inert) flags MomentumContinuation_Up as a weak 1wk cell (0/3, -18.9% overshoot) -> watch the fill. f=0.30 (calib degenerate, L5). L8: pending next open, reprice if the open gaps >~1.5%. |\n| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing | 436.98 | HOLD | — | 425.67 | n/a | 482.23 | 499.70 | Hold the 296-sh starter (avg 438.02) through Q2 earnings 07-16 (5 trading days out; catalyst-aware hold, no pre-trim). Signal recovered WATCH 49 -> HOLD 54 on the same FailedBreakdown_Up_20D cell; close 436.98 (~flat, -0.24%) sits ABOVE the raised model stop 425.67, Target_12Week 499.70 is positive (+14.4%), no Exit_Warning, not PROFIT_ARMED (T12_Progress 87.45% <90 and underwater). No signal-based sell (CLAUDE.md 9). News CONFIRMS hold: TSMC Q2 guide -40.2B, GM 65.5-67.5%, EPS +52.6% YoY, Citi PT raise on AI outlook, expected to upgrade 2026 guidance. Raise the monitored stop 419..67 (model). L2 exit arms only on a decisive break of 425.67 WITH a negative 12wk. |\n\n_Track record: 2 graded decisions · 1-week calibration n/a._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.", "date_published": "2026-07-09T00:00:00.000Z", "tags": [ "ustech", "us", "eod" ] }, { "id": "ustech-2026-07-08", "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ustech/2026-07-08/", "title": "US Tech — 2026-07-08", "summary": "EOD 2026-07-08", "content_text": "## USTECH End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-07-08\n\nEOD 2026-07-08\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| SNOW | Snowflake Inc. | 262.74 | BUY — QUEUED @241.73 | 241.73 | 230.10 | 246.92 (+2.1%) | 259.03 (+7.2%) | 374.40 (+54.9%) | AI-data leader on the book's most reliable buy cell (PullbackBuy_VWAP), conviction climbing, Buy_Rank #2: Street avg PT (+17.9%), 87% Buy of 52 analysts, fair value lifted.5 post-Summit on Cortex/CoCo AI workloads, revenue +33.5% YoY, BofA Top-Q3 idea. Name is extended (close 262.74, RSI 69.6, ED -1.81 ATR) so queue a GTC buy-limit at the model pullback entry 241.73 -> fills only on an ~8% dip (self-limiting, no chase) which keeps it compliant with the overlay's 'no new leverage into the 07-08 FOMC print'. Supersedes the 07-07 240.65 buy-limit that never filled (reprice, +1.08). NA valuation (DCF 112 not an anchor for hyper-growth SaaS) -> val_adj 0, gate off. f=0.30 (calib degenerate, L5). 12wk 374 exceeds DCF anchor. Sized 0.6695*1M*0.20=133,900 ->; executes next open 07-08, expires 07-13. |\n| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing | 432.57 | HOLD | — | 419.90 | n/a | 483.25 | 501.74 | Hold the freshly-filled 296-sh starter (07-07 451.79 buy-limit filled at 438.02) through Q2 earnings 07-16. Day-1 fade STRONG BUY 76 -> WATCH 49 (conv -27) on the L1 FailedBreakdown_Up_20D whipsaw cell, but NO signal-based sell reason (CLAUDE.md 9): WATCH is not a SELL label, close 432.57 sits ABOVE the live model stop 419.90, Target_12Week 501.74 is positive (+16%), no Exit_Warning, not PROFIT_ARMED (underwater -1.2% -> profit-take/conviction-collapse ticks apply only to armed names). News confirms hold: TSMC Q2 guide -40.2B above consensus, EPS +52.6% YoY, Barclays OW PT Reset the monitored stop from the stale queue-relative 438.91 (phantom breach) to the model 419.90 anchored on the 438.02 fill. L2 exit arms only on a decisive break of 419.90 WITH a negative 12wk. |\n\n_Track record: 0 graded decisions · 1-week calibration n/a._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.", "date_published": "2026-07-08T00:00:00.000Z", "tags": [ "ustech", "us", "eod" ] }, { "id": "ustech-2026-07-07", "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ustech/2026-07-07/", "title": "US Tech — 2026-07-07", "summary": "EOD 2026-07-07", "content_text": "## USTECH End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-07-07\n\nEOD 2026-07-07\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| SNOW | Snowflake Inc. | 262.09 | BUY — QUEUED @240.65 | 240.65 | 228.33 | 246.15 (+2.3%) | 258.97 (+7.6%) | 373.48 (+55.2%) | Repriced pullback entry on the AI-data leader: analysts just lifted fair value and Street PTs run 270-370 (UBS/Citi/WF/MS/GS), BofA named it a Top-Q3 idea, revenue +33.5% YoY. Signal flipped to PullbackBuy_VWAP (the book's reliable buy cell) conv 74; queue a GTC buy-limit at the model entry 240.65 (close 262, RSI 69 -> extended, fills only on an ~8% pullback, no chase). Supersedes the 07-04 266.16 buy-stop that never filled (07-06 high 266.0). NA valuation (DCF 112 not an anchor for hyper-growth SaaS) -> val_adj 0, gate off. f=0.30 (calib degenerate, L5). 12wk 373 exceeds DCF anchor. Sized 0.6695*1M*0.20=133,900 ->; executes next open 07-07, expires 07-10. |\n| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing | 451.79 | BUY — QUEUED @451.79 | 451.79 | 438.91 | 467.25 (+3.4%) | 503.31 (+11.4%) | 538.11 (+19.1%) | AI-foundry momentum upgraded to STRONG BUY (conv 76, Buy_Rank #3) off the settled 07-06 close: Barclays Overweight PT, consensus Strong Buy (13/17), 3nm capacity expansion (TW/AZ/JP) + wafer price hikes, +93% 52wk. Model prints a Market order at 451.79 but converted to a GTC buy-limit at the same price to avoid chasing into the 07-08 FOMC minutes (overlay: no new leverage into the print), 07-14 CPI, and Q2 earnings 07-16 -> fills only without a gap-up; expires 07-10, before earnings. FailedBreakdown_Up_20D is an L1-discounted chase cell and this is a single fresh print (L4) -> modest starter, not a max position. NA_CCY valuation -> val_adj 0, gate off. f=0.30 (L5). Sized 0.6695*1M*0.20 ->. |\n\n_Track record: 0 graded decisions · 1-week calibration n/a._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.", "date_published": "2026-07-07T00:00:00.000Z", "tags": [ "ustech", "us", "eod" ] }, { "id": "ustech-2026-07-04", "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ustech/2026-07-04/", "title": "US Tech — 2026-07-04", "summary": "EOD 2026-07-04", "content_text": "## USTECH End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-07-04\n\nEOD 2026-07-04\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| SNOW | Snowflake Inc. | 260.15 | BUY — QUEUED @266.16 | 266.16 | 229.74 | 288.02 (+8.2%) | 339.01 (+27.4%) | 370.71 (+39.3%) | Fresh-book inception buy. Stable 3-snapshot STRONG BUY conv 85, Buy_Rank #1, MomentumContinuation_Up, Trending/high_vol. Buy-stop above close (260.15) fills only on breakout confirmation (self-limiting, RSI 68.6<75, no chase). Valuation NA (DCF 112 not an anchor for hyper-growth SaaS; Value Score F) -> val_adj 0, quality gate off. News confirms: BofA Top-Q3 idea, AWS AI deal, Street PTs 270-370. Sized 0.6695*100k*0.20=13,390 ->; f=0.30 (no scorecard). Executes Mon 07-06 open; reprice if gap >1.5%; horizons+grade from execution. |\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.", "date_published": "2026-07-04T00:00:00.000Z", "tags": [ "ustech", "us", "eod" ] }, { "id": "ustech-2026-07-03", "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ustech/2026-07-03/", "title": "US Tech — 2026-07-03", "summary": "DISPOSE: QCOM 90@176.25. Cross-book mirrors of us verdicts. ACQUIRE: none (shared spent via us).", "content_text": "## USTECH End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-07-03\n\nDISPOSE: QCOM 90@176.25. Cross-book mirrors of us verdicts. ACQUIRE: none (shared spent via us).\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| QCOM | Qualcomm | 176.25 | SELL 90% | 176.25 | 204.82 | 177.86 (+0.9%) | 181.60 (+3.0%) | 159.82 (-9.3%) | stable STRONG SELL-REDUCE x4 + PROFIT_ARMED + dead T12; Russell index removal + Musk denial confirm |\n| KLAC | KLA Corp | 235.55 | SELL 50% | 235.55 | 221.29 | 252.66 (+7.3%) | 292.59 (+24.2%) | 335.66 (+42.5%) | mirror of us EOD 2026-07-03 stop-discipline sell; execute once (L7) |\n| NVDA | NVIDIA | 194.83 | SELL 50% | 194.83 | 181.45 | n/a | n/a | 168.44 (-13.5%) | mirror of us fired profit-take; execute once (L7) |\n| GOOGL | Alphabet A | 359.91 | SELL 30% | 359.91 | 337.21 | n/a | n/a | 338.09 (-6.1%) | mirror of us fired profit-take; execute once (L7) |\n\n_Track record: 26 graded decisions · 1-week calibration -0.115._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.", "date_published": "2026-07-03T00:00:00.000Z", "tags": [ "ustech", "us", "eod" ] }, { "id": "ustech-2026-07-01", "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ustech/2026-07-01/", "title": "US Tech — 2026-07-01", "summary": "NET-NEW NO ACTION. Mirror us 07-01 on shared shares (execute once). Reconcile QCOM->0 (phantom), NVDA->800. No standalone ustech capital.", "content_text": "## USTECH End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-07-01\n\nNET-NEW NO ACTION. Mirror us 07-01 on shared shares (execute once). Reconcile QCOM->0 (phantom), NVDA->800. No standalone ustech capital.\n\n| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| QCOM | Qualcomm | 181.92 | RECONCILE->0 | 184.79 | 201.30 | n/a | 183.58 (-0.7%) | 187.70 (+1.6%) | — |\n| ASML | ASML | 1843.04 | SHARED us-governed STRONG BUY cv93 | 1989.00 | 1850.00 | 2165.70 (+8.9%) | 2577.97 (+29.6%) | 2745.80 (+38.0%) | — |\n| NVDA | NVIDIA | 197.58 | RECONCILE->800 | 200.09 | 188.00 | n/a | n/a | 175.98 (-12.0%) | — |\n\n_Track record: 24 graded decisions · 1-week calibration -0.028._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.", "date_published": "2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z", "tags": [ "ustech", "us", "eod" ] }, { "id": "ustech-2026-06-30", "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ustech/2026-06-30/", "title": "US Tech — 2026-06-30", "summary": "⚠ SAME BOOK AS us (execute ONCE; us 06-30 governs); MIRROR the us adds KLAC+MU (cv93 each); NVDA/GOOGL exits stand down; QCOM reconcile→0. NO net-new ustech capital (shared spent by us).", "content_text": "## USTECH End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-06-30\n\n⚠ SAME BOOK AS us (execute ONCE; us 06-30 governs); MIRROR the us adds KLAC+MU (cv93 each); NVDA/GOOGL exits stand down; QCOM reconcile→0. NO net-new ustech capital (shared spent by us).\n\n| Ticker | Name | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| KLAC | KLA Corporation | ADD | 278.39 | 233.37 | 293.14 (+5.3%) | 396.40 (+42.4%) | 396.71 (+42.5%) | STRONG BUY-ADD cv93 MomentumContinuation, UNDERVALUED+Qpass; SAME shares as us (execute once, us governs sizing) |\n| MU | Micron Technology | ADD | 1145.28 | 925.75 | 1154.99 (+0.8%) | 1222.97 (+6.8%) | 1632.02 (+42.5%) | STRONG BUY-ADD cv93 PullbackBuy (+10 bankable cell); val suppressed (DCF unreliable RevGw 2.59); HBM sold out; SAME shares as us (execute once) |\n| QCOM | Qualcomm | RECONCILE->0 | 188.72 | 203.16 | 188.40 (-0.2%) | 186.18 (-1.3%) | 202.21 (+7.1%) | already sold in us 06-25 (us QCOM=0); ustech JSON drift -> reconcile to 0; STRONG SELL-REDUCE cv49 but T12 +7.1% (not clean L2). Not fresh cash |\n| NVDA | NVIDIA | HOLD | 194.97 | 189.00 | n/a | n/a | 169.90 (-12.9%) | sell eased -> NO TRADE; us trimmed to 800; sync ustech JSON; hold |\n| GOOGL | Alphabet | HOLD | 353.65 | 345.00 | n/a | n/a | 317.08 (-10.3%) | 06-27 exit invalidated; reclaimed 345 (353.65); hold |\n| — | NO NET-NEW USTECH BUY | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | SNDK(PullbackBuy+10,extended)/TSM(FailedBreakdown) clear floor but unfunded - shared by us; don't double- (L7) |\n\n_Track record: 23 graded decisions · 1-week calibration 0.125._\n\n> Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.", "date_published": "2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z", "tags": [ "ustech", "us", "eod" ] }, { "id": "ustech-2026-06-26", "url": "https://www.algo2alpha.com/p/ustech/2026-06-26/", "title": "US Tech — 2026-06-26", "summary": "⚠ SAME BOOK AS us (execute ONCE); MIRROR the us 06-26 rotation: NVDA trim 25% / GOOGL exit -> MU add; DELL = the combined-book new (us log). No net-new ustech capital.", "content_text": "## USTECH End-of-Day Verdict — 2026-06-26\n\n⚠ SAME BOOK AS us (execute ONCE); MIRROR the us 06-26 rotation: NVDA trim 25% / GOOGL exit -> MU add; DELL = the combined-book new (us log). No net-new ustech capital.\n\n| Ticker | Name | Action | Action Price | Stop | 1wk | 4wk | 12wk | Rationale |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | TRIM 25% | 195.74 | 189.00 | n/a | n/a | 179.31 (-8.4%) | stop-break + neg 12wk; SAME SHARES as us — execute once |\n| GOOGL | Alphabet, Inc.- Class A | EXIT 100% | 343.71 | 345.00 | n/a | n/a | 313.05 (-8.9%) | closed <345 floor + neg 12wk + talent exodus; SAME SHARES as us |\n| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | ADD | 1218.43 | 1090.00 | 1351.11 (+10.9%) | 1850.26 (+51.9%) | 1729.32 (+41.9%) | BUY-ADD cv80 clean; blowout; size 0.5x; SAME SHARES as us |\n| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | NEW BUY | 405.75 | 372.40 | 416.16 (+2.6%) | 455.32 (+12.2%) | 583.47 (+43.8%) | combined-book new buy logged in us (adj 68); ustech-local adj 61 Educational content, not financial advice. Position sizes and account details are omitted; prices shown are model estimates, not guarantees.", "date_published": "2026-06-26T00:00:00.000Z", "tags": [ "ustech", "us", "eod" ] } ] }