Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| — | AI - SG Mid/Small Cap (all-cash) | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | No action - the book stays fully in cash, but for the first time in sixteen sessions a name actually cleared the buy bar. Valuetronics has rebuilt conviction for three straight sessions to 77, top-ranked buy) and offers a clean unextended entry at 1.11 - yet it fails the quality screen outright: F-Score 6, quality rank 10th of 11 names, revenue shrinking 4%, and priced above every intrinsic anchor. Freshly regenerated valuation confirmed that today. News independently reinforces it: FY2026 earnings came in lower on an impairment and the 132%-of-earnings dividend (ex-date 7 Aug) suggests the three-day rally is a dividend-capture bid rather than a durable trend - and the ~4.5% payout roughly cancels the model's +3.6% twelve-week view. PC Partner remains the most attractive name on fundamentals but is blocked by thin liquidity, and its discount is quietly being priced away (+5.6% since Thursday). The Sseed risked nothing. [ops] All-cash standalone book (ADR-0014, MSCAP-3): DISPOSE permanently N/A. ACQUIRE none: BN2 adj 76 clears the 65 floor but is hard-blocked as a new entry on Quality_Pass=False; separately an L1/MSCAP-1-discounted FailedBreakdown chase family. 5DD new AVOID cv77 (bearish, long-only, - SGM-4). All others NO TRADE cv0. No queued order to reprice/withdraw. Fairvalue REGENERATED this run (11d stale, dispositive). Overlay STALE (WEEK 07-05, 22d). sg-fallback horizon fresh, no sgmscap-name event; FOMC 07-29 2 sessions out (framing). Scorecard 18 entries 0 graded, calib_1w null => f=0.30 (L5), no actionable cells, counterfactuals n=3 null medians. Learnings applied: MSCAP-1/SGM-3, L1 (decisive), SGM-4/4(a), SGM-5, MSCAP-2, L4/L5/L6/L8. Systemic: missing 07-24 EOD write; quality gate now the sole binary blocker; liquidity gate's PCT opportunity cost now measurable; val_adj band miscalibration recurs (5DD/575 QPass flipped on a routine regen); 0 graded entries keeps the feedback loop open. Re-arm: settled favored-cell (PullbackBuy_VWAP/MomentumContinuation) BUY >=65 WITH Quality_Pass repaired - conviction alone will not open BN2. |
| BN2 | Valuetronics Holdings | 1.11 | NO ACTION | 1.11 | 1.08 | 1.13 (+1.6%) | 1.17 (+5.4%) | 1.15 (+3.6%) | Valuetronics is the best setup this book has produced - and we are still not buying it. Three straight sessions of rebuilding conviction to 77) put it at the top of the buy ranking with a clean, unextended entry at 1.11, right at the close, stop 1.08 and a 1.17 target. On the chart alone it clears our bar. On quality it does not: the F-Score is 6, it ranks 10th of 11 names in the book, revenue is shrinking 4%, and at 1.11 it trades well above both intrinsic anchors (earnings-power 0.92, DCF 0.72). Today's freshly refreshed valuation confirmed the screen still fails. The news makes the same case from a different direction - FY2026 profit fell on an impairment, and the company is paying out 132% of earnings via a special dividend funded from the balance sheet, going ex on 7 August. That reframes the three-day rally as most likely a dividend-capture bid rather than real trend, and the ~4.5% payout roughly cancels out the model's +3.6% twelve-week view, leaving expected total return near flat. We keep it on the watchlist and stay in cash. [ops] Fusion: val_adj = clamp(round(-0.2003 x 5),-10,0) = -1, scorecard_bias 0 (no actionable cell) -> adj 76, clears the >=65 floor. Blocked by the SEPARATE hard quality gate: new entry (Held N,) on Quality_Pass=False (freshly re-verified FetchedAt 2026-07-27 18:34). MSCAP-2's val_adj-miscalibration caveat does NOT disable the gate. Independently L1/MSCAP-1: FailedBreakdown_Up_20D is the discounted chase family, not the favored PullbackBuy_VWAP/MomentumContinuation cell the rule requires. Entry 1.11 = Close 1.11, EDATR -0.00, RSI 55.2, ATR 0.0297, 57.03, Buy_Rank 1. 1wk 1.128 uses f=0.30 (L5, calib_1w null). Not queued - a GTC is still a new entry. Third consecutive gate-block (07-22 cv100, 07-23 cv58, 07-27 cv77). Recorded direction none / optional so the counterfactual grader prices what the quality-gate block cost or saved. RE-ARM: settled favored-cell BUY >=65 WITH Quality_Pass repaired (out of GROWTH_PRICED_IN); conviction alone will not open this position. News caveat: dividend figures search-reported, not fetch-verified this run; corroborative, not load-bearing. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
0 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one.
0.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
22 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.