The Books

Vista is breaking out to a 52-week high on the back of a genuine operational step-change - production up 32% year-on-year with further growth guided for the next two quarters - and it is the only name on our entire buy list that both passes the fundamental quality screen and is not trading above our estimate of its worth. We are placing a stop order just above the market so it only buys if the breakout confirms. OPERATIONAL: BreakoutUp_52W cv88, STRONG BUY, Buy_Rank 1, Entry_Distance_ATR +0.05 - the trigger sits ABOVE the close so there is no chase by construction; RSI 65.4, below the 75 bar. Order type is the model's own Buy Stop @ 79.12: self-limiting, the US-21/US-35 working entry lever, and inherently robust to the 09-11 CPI print. This is the PRE-COMMITTED 09-09 WATCH re-arm firing ('re-card on any bullish actionable Action with a live Entry_Price'), re-priced to the LIVE 79.12 - the stale @75.86 was never republished (provenance rule). The 09-08 non-fill cost +on. Valuation UNDERVALUED, MoS_FV +0.0033, Quality gate PASS (F=7, Quality_Rank 11), FV/sh 74.82, DCF/sh 86.44 -> val_adj = clamp(round(0.0033 x 20), 0, +10) = 0. The ONLY Quality_Pass + UNDERVALUED name in the buy pool (US-20 drought, ~10 weeks). Adjusted 88 + 0 + 2 = 90, the highest carded in weeks; BreakoutUp_52W|buy +2 (n=11, hit_1w.600) and the family is NOT one of the three US-16 momentum-chase traps, so the raw-75 bar does not bind (raw 88 clears it anyway). Size modulator held at 1.0x not the permitted 1.25x - UNDERVALUED here is a +0.33% margin of safety, i.e. fair value not a bargain. Sizing 85.49% x x 20% = x 1.0 -> =, inside the cap (60% x equity), covered ~3.1x by. Stop 68.45 is the model chandelier_trail line, WIDE at 3.11xATR / -13.5%: risk 432 x 10.67 = = 2.30% of the equity base, stated because it is wide not tight. Target_Price 100.47 = risk objective, distinct from the 4wk estimate. NO DCF warning - 12wk 82.03 sits BELOW the anchor, the only card tonight of which that is true; note the estimator's own forward is modest (+3.68% at 12wk). News confirms: Q2 production +32% to 156,061 boe/d (oil +33%), Q3 guide ~160k / Q4 ~170k vs FY 158k, Bandurria Sur 25.1% + Bajo del Toro 35.0% consolidated from 1 May, Peter Thiel ~1% stake, +44% YTD / +74% 1yr, Q3 results 28-Oct (outside window). CAVEAT: the proximate driver is a MACRO SUPPLY SHOCK, not company news - Brent +7-8% on the week on Hormuz supply loss - and a supply-shock breakout can unwind as fast as it forms; one bearish headline in the set flags a recent earnings miss. Auto-withdraw on conviction < 65 or a family flip off BreakoutUp_52W (US-8); else expires 2026-09-15. · news

decided @ 79.12 · stop 68.45 · t1w 79.26 · t4w 79.35 · t12w 82.03

Dell is the book's highest-conviction print (88) and the only position carrying a real gain (+23%); Friday's 12% jump to an all-time high came from RBC initiating coverage at Outperform with a target, on top of record Q2 results (revenue $47bn, +58% y/y) and a $95bn AI-server order backlog, and the shares still trade near 21x forward earnings. We add to a winner on its own breakout rather than chase it: the order is a limit at the model's entry price, so it only fills if the stock comes back to us. OPERATIONAL: GTC buy-limit 564.47 (range 555.03-573.91, Entry_Price +/- 0.25 ATR); expires 2026-09-16. Sizing 713 x 112.34% = model -> x0.75 size modulator (MoS -2.48) = 601 -> capped by max_position_pct 60% headroom ( / 564.47) = 391 -> x0.5 STATED CHASE HAIRCUT = /. The haircut is a deliberate deviation from full model size, not a signal override, on three grounds: (i) UT-10 - this book has ADDed to DELL twice before (07-@411.73, 07-@419.03) and BOTH graded stop_hit; (ii) own-book BreakoutUp_52W|buy is 0-for-2 on 1wk and 4wk (n=2, report-only, cited not applied); (iii) L1 - BreakoutUp_52W 4wk targets overshoot +55-75% and mean-revert, which is why the +10.2% 1wk interpolation below should be read as an upper bound. L6 is applied in SPIRIT not letter: this is an analyst-initiation blowout, not a post-earnings gap, but a one-session +11.98% to an all-time high is structurally the same chase risk - hence the limit rather than market-on-open. Stop RAISED 469.94 -> 491.76 (2.0x ATR chandelier off the 567.29 close) - the ratchet moving up, which also protects the add. 12wk 808.39 exceeds the 446.05 DCF anchor by a wide margin - projection assumes growth beyond what is priced in. Macro caveat stated: August CPI printed core +0.3% and markets now price ~87% odds of a 25bp FOMC HIKE on 09-16, two sessions after the execution date, with triple witching 09-18 behind it. · news

decided @ 564.47 · stop 491.76 · t1w 622.06 · t4w 756.44 · t12w 808.39

Chevron is our best position, up over a quarter on cost and stretched ten ATR above it, and it has just printed an RSI divergence into a record high. We bank the minimum tier - 30% - and stay long the other 70%, because the case for the name is intact: Piper Sandler lifted its target to a Street-high analysts rate it Strong Buy, and management is guiding to a tight oil market. Taking a slice of a ten-ATR gain is risk discipline, not a change of view. ADR-0012: PROFIT_ARMED (Gain_ATR 10.43, +26.51% on cost) + fire tick (a) RSI_DIV on the same row = 1 tick -> profit_take_1 = 30%. G1 softening does NOT apply (signal is FailedBreakdown_Up_20D, not BreakoutUp_*/MomentumContinuation_*, and cv69 < 80). Tick (b) not fired - per the 09-10 ruling a flip to/from NoTrade cv0 is governed by (d), not (b); (c) not fired (T12 = 1.182x close); (d) not fired. News classified OVERRIDES and applied as a DEMOTE: it caps the trim at the minimum tier and blocks any valuation bump - it does not cancel a mandatory profit-take. Valuation FAIR_VALUE MoS -0.868 (not <= -3) so no bump anyway; 12wk < DCF so no DCF-anchor warning. Balance, trail stays. Estimates use f=0.30 (calib_1w = -0.086, degenerate, L5, 12th consecutive session). · news

decided @ 214.06 · stop 205.84 · t1w 216.64 · t4w 222.66 · t12w 253.10

Kraft Heinz closed below its risk line for a fourth straight session - wider than when we sold half - and its twelve-week outlook has slipped to ~8% lower, so we exit the remaining position as the prior card planned. L2: close vs stop = -2.41% / -0.91 ATR (widened from -1.09%), 2nd close below EMA200, Target_12Week = -8.24%; position -4.34% on cost. Engine AVOID cv52 RallySell_BearTrend (-8 -> adj 44), so origination is L2 not signal. FAIR_VALUE MoS -0.618 - no tier change. Escalation ladder completes (09-11: half now, balance on next break). First NYSE session - mechanical. 1wk (f=0.30), 4wk (Target_Price), 12wk. · news

decided @ 24.27 · stop 24.87 · t1w 24.23 · t4w 24.15 · t12w 22.27

Liberty Live has traded below its risk line for five straight sessions with a twelve-week view around 14% lower and no valuation anchor to lean on - the signal has qualified for an exit every session and has been passed over four times for want of a slot. We stop deferring and cut half. L2 basis: close vs stop (-1.35%, -0.51 ATR), 5th consecutive break, Target_12Week = -14.19%, NoTrade cv0 x4. Position FIFTH deferral closed per L3/US-1 and the 09-10 promise ('carded exit on the next EOD'). Half rather than the original 09-03 89% card because the break NARROWED this session (-1.86% -> -1.35%) and the close reclaimed EMA200 on a +0.53% day - take the escalating ladder, not the whole line. Balance keeps the stop; re-fire the remainder on any further close below. Valuation is NA (negative, no FV/sh) so no amplify either way. No company news on either approved source. 1wk/4wk n/a - NoTrade row prints no Target_Price; next-session model band -.

decided @ 97.36 · stop 98.69 · t12w 83.54

Standard Chartered is almost 8% above our cost and, for a third straight session, every model horizon - one, four and twelve weeks - sits below today's price, so we bank a small slice ahead of the Fed decision and the Hong Kong rate follow on 17 September. The breakout signal is strong, which is why this is the minimum trim and keep running behind a raised stop. OPERATIONAL: BreakoutUp_20D STRONG BUY - ADD cv90 (trail ->, Exit_Warning PROFIT_ARMED, Gain_ATR 3.94 (genuine arm), +7.86%. FIRED tick (c) only: Target_12Week 244.31 < 1.02xClose and the inversion HK = 0.502 ATR clears the 0.5-ATR materiality line (HF-P66, promoted) by a hair; G1-softened does not protect (c); G3 does not protect (12wk negative). 1 tick -> 30%. HF-P54 ORIGINATION WEAKENED (engine flipped HOLD cv61 -> STRONG BUY-ADD cv90) -> supersede at lower tier 20% = ( of 50). SUPERSEDES the unexecuted 09-11 SELL 200 (invalid token market_next_open); does not stack. Proceeds HKrealised +HKvs cost 228.63. Stop RAISED 233.48 -> 236.73 (model; chandelier 237.47), cushion 2.16 ATR. Valuation NA_CCY -> 0. BreakoutUp_20D|sell n=1 report-only -> bias 0. Est 1wk -0.32% / 4wk -2.21% / 12wk -0.93%. COUNTER: engine bullish cv90, marginal tick, HF-P64 over-trim record -> lower tier. Cross-book: parent hk ADDS @245.87 tonight. · news

decided @ 246.60 · stop 236.73 · t1w 245.82 · t4w 241.16 · t12w 244.31

Bank of Communications printed another 52-week high, but its buy conviction collapsed from in one session and momentum is diverging at the most overbought reading in the book (RSI 73.6), so we sell back the lot added this morning at a small gain and keep the original 1,500-share line running behind a raised stop. The four- and twelve-week views are still mildly positive, which is why this returns the position to its pre-add size rather than cutting deeper. OPERATIONAL: MomentumContinuation_Up [BUY] HOLD cv59 (trail ->, Exit_Warning RSI_DIV,PROFIT_ARMED, close 8.16 = High_52W, Entry_Distance_ATR -0.29, Trend 100. Live cost 7.728 after the 09-14 fill (scan row shows stale 7.50/1,500 - race) -> Gain_ATR 2.53; arm from T12_Progress 99.51 on a NON-inverted Target_12Week (8.20 > 8.16) -> genuine per HF-P45, not suppressed. FIRED 2 genuine ticks: (a) RSI_DIV not G1-downgraded (cv59 < 80); (b) conviction -31. Tick (c) not fired. profit_take_2 50% x 2,500 = 1,250 -> nearest 1,000-lot 1,000; HF-P55 lower tier 30% = 750 -> also 1,000. -> (40%), remaining 1,500. Proceeds HKrealised +HKvs avg 7.728 (the 8.07 add round-trips ~+1.1%). Stop RAISED 7.75 -> 7.77 (model; chandelier 7.818), cushion 2.28 ATR. Valuation NA_CCY -> 0. MomentumContinuation_Up|sell n=1 report-only -> 0. Est 1wk -0.61% / 4wk +1.10% / 12wk +0.49%. COUNTER: HF-P64 names 3328 as the book's clearest over-trim; disclosed - tonight's basis is two genuine ticks, not tick (c). · news

decided @ 8.16 · stop 7.77 · t1w 8.11 · t4w 8.25 · t12w 8.20

Bank of China is our biggest winner at nearly 12% above cost and the most stretched name in the book, and tonight it added a momentum-divergence warning while conviction slipped, so we bank the minimum one-fifth and let run behind a raised stop. The model sees roughly flat prices over one to twelve weeks, so there is little forward reward being given up. OPERATIONAL: FailedBreakdown_Up_20D [WATCH] HOLD cv50 (trail ->, Exit_Warning RSI_DIV,PROFIT_ARMED (RSI_DIV new), RSI 70.90, VWAP +5.34%, Gain_ATR 4.90. FIRED tick (a) RSI_DIV (no G1 protection - FailedBreakdown family, cv50); tick (c) inversion 0.015 = 0.11 ATR below materiality, not counted; (b) -11 no. 1 tick -> 30% x 5,000 = 1,500 = 1. tie, no risk leg -> round DOWN (HF-P25) -> (20%). HF-P54 ORIGINATION STRONGER (09-11 basis was tick (c) alone) -> re-issue same size, repriced to live anchor; SUPERSEDES the unexecuted 09-11 SELL @6.045 (invalid token market_next_open); does not stack. Proceeds HKrealised +HKStop RAISED 5.79 -> 5.83 (model; chandelier 5.822), cushion 1.94 ATR. Valuation NA_CCY -> 0. Scorecard FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|sell -5 (n=18, hit_1w 0.25) -> adj 45; argues against the card and is phantom-contaminated per HF-P63 - disclosed. Est 1wk +0.41% / 4wk -0.25% / 12wk -0.25%. · news

decided @ 6.08 · stop 5.83 · t1w 6.11 · t4w 6.07 · t12w 6.07

Sunny Optical closed just below the protective sell level we set for it, on a day that also printed a lower high, so we are taking 30% off at the next open. The breach is only one tick and the model still rates the name a buy with a positive 12-week view, which is why this is a partial cut rather than a full exit; valuation is neutral and adds nothing either way. HS-7 shallow breach (0.025 ATR) of recorded trail 67.02; HS-3a model stop 63.37 rejected; of 3,800, proceeds ~HKrealized -6,050. Pre-commit residual 2,700: full exit on close <65.62 OR 2nd consecutive close <67.02 OR bearish-family flip (label/12wk/iPhone 09-18 not a defence); reclaim = close >=67.05; re-add only when HS-48 clears (Entry_Price >67.02). f=0.30 (L5); 12wk 77.36 exceeds DCF 68.79. · news

decided @ 66.95 · stop 67.02 · t1w 69.06 · t4w 73.97 · t12w 77.36

Bank of Communications closed at a genuine 52-week high on the strongest trend reading in the book, and we are stepping back in with a disciplined limit rather than chasing the breakout. The bank trades on a single-digit earnings multiple with Beijing's recapitalisation of the big state lenders behind it, and the model's four-week and twelve-week views both sit above the breakout level, so the medium-term case supports adding - but the one-week view does not, which is why this is a pullback order and not a market buy. OPERATIONAL: signal BreakoutUp_52W [STRONG BUY] cv90, Buy_Rank 1, 77.96, Trend pillar 100, Regime Trending, close 8.09 = High_52W 8.09 exactly, above EMA20/50/100/200, VWAP +4.27%. HF-4 FIRES (Est_1W_Point 8.06 < the printed 8.12 buy-stop = LOW_QUALITY_ENTRY) and is applied AS WRITTEN - demote to a pullback QUEUE, not veto - so the buy-stop becomes a GTC limit at 8.07, the floor of the Entry_Price +-0.25xATR provenance band (8.074-8.166) and the level at which the one-week estimate no longer contradicts the fill. HF-3 non-inversion gate PASSES (Est_12W +0.62% vs close). Signal family upgraded off MomentumContinuation_Up (this book's 0-for-3, stop-first 1.0 cell) onto BreakoutUp_52W (1-for-1, report-only so bias 0). Volume: 77.96% x 1,500 = 1,169 -> HK board lot 1,000 ->; cost HK = 0.47% of the HKdry. Valuation NA_CCY -> val_adj 0, size x1.0, quality gate off (and it would never block an ADD). Stop RAISED 7.72 -> 7.75 (tonight's model stop; chandelier 7.723 and carried 7.72 both lower); risk 0.32/sh = 1.74 ATR. COUNTER-CASE DISCLOSED: RSI 71.70 rising, a printed RSI_DIV, and a fired profit-take tick (c) on the identical row, into a tighten-trail horizon - answered by the order's structure, a limit BELOW the market expiring 2026-09-16, the last HK session before the FOMC, so a fill is never carried into the Fed on a chased price. Counterfactual disclosed: no_chase_queue n=9, +4.97% median wh_1w [cost] - the price of the 09-09 and 09-10 flat rejections. · news

decided @ 8.07 · stop 7.75 · t1w 8.06 · t4w 8.18 · t12w 8.14

Lenovo pulled back 3% to its own volume-weighted average price and the model read it as a buy, upgrading from no-trade to BUY-ADD at conviction 77. The case is that the pullback is shallow inside a strong uptrend - the shares sit above their 20-, 50- and 200-day averages, the 12-week projection of HKis 42% above the close, and unusually that projection is underwritten rather than stretched: it sits just below our discounted-cash-flow estimate of HK. Valuation reads FAIR_VALUE with the book's joint-best quality score, so we are paying a fair price for a business with a clean balance sheet rather than chasing a story. We are buying with a limit order, not at market, because the risk is defined: the order fills at HKagainst a stop at HK, risking under 1% of the book. OPERATIONAL: adjusted conviction 73 = raw 77 + val_adj -4 (MoS -0.7486) + scorecard_bias 0 (PullbackBuy_VWAP|buy report-only, n=4 < 5 floor - warning printed, no haircut taken; this card becomes the fifth sample and resolves Systemic #8). GEOMETRY PASS - this is why it is taken while 2382 at cv81 is not: entry 31.49 sits 5.1% ABOVE the recorded trail 29.96 and the whole publishable band [31.05, 31.93] lies above the exit line. Entry_Distance_ATR +0.11 = close 31.30 is BELOW the limit, so the no-chase bar is not engaged; the limit self-enforces HS-5 (a Monday gap above 31.49 simply leaves it unfilled). Sizing 39.22% x 30,000 = 11,766 -> on the 2,000-share board lot, x1.0 size modulator; cost HK = 35.7% of HKdry. Cap: 60% x 2,261,290 = 1,356,774 less 939,000 existing = HKheadroom - clears, but post-fill 0992 = 58.1% of book, only 1.9 pts under the single-name cap. FLAGGED. Model Stop_Price 29.22 REJECTED as a 2.5% downward drift (HS-3a, monotonic rule); trail stays 29.96. Blended cost post-fill 31.25; add risks HK (0.81% of book), full 42,000 risks HK (2.4%). Counterweights stated: today was -2.98% on 1.41x volume (distribution-flavoured), the label has oscillated cv77->cv62->cv0->cv77 in four sessions so this is a FRESH not stable print, and this book's PullbackBuy cell is 0-for-4 at 4wk - the limit order is how all three are priced. HS-4 vindicated: last night's single cv0 was correctly held as noise and re-armed bullish one session later. L8 pending_next_open, execute_on 2026-09-14 - reprice if Monday's open gaps >~1.5%; note 09-14 is the HK session pricing US August CPI (horizon stance tighten-trail, confidence HIGH), which is precisely why this is a limit. expires_on 2026-09-16, deliberately before the 09-16/17 FOMC. Estimates: f=0.30 (L5, calib_1w -0.097 degenerate); 12wk 44.60 sits BELOW the DCF anchor 45.63 so no exceeds-DCF caveat is owed. · news

decided @ 31.49 · stop 29.96 · t1w 32.81 · t4w 35.90 · t12w 44.60

American Express keeps grinding lower: the shares closed at, below every major moving average including the 200-day at, and the model's 12-week view of implies a further 13% downside. The valuation work marks it OVERVALUED on a residual-income basis, and while the business is fine - Q2 revenue grew 19% and management still guides to 10% full-year growth - the chart has been broken for months and credit-quality questions are building. We are cutting half the position and keeping the rest, rather than defending a name the market has marked down for a quarter. Trend-exit basis (close below EMA200 + negative 12wk), NOT the conviction floor: tonight's engine label flipped to a bullish ReversalUp_Oversold at cv57, which does not clear 65 and whose |sell cell has n=1. Portion held at 50% because the reversal setup argues against a full cut. 7th consecutive ask (L3/US-1); the six prior cards never executed - executor blocked since 2026-08-18. Stop on the 17,330-sh remainder held at (never lower a trail). Engine printed Target_Price ABOVE the close on this row - a long-side target, not the exit path; 4wk time-scaled from the 12wk instead. · news

decided @ 320.71 · stop 317.92 · t1w 316.44 · t4w 306.47 · t12w 278.03

We are exiting Delta completely. The stock has closed below our risk line for seven straight sessions, the position is 15.6% underwater, and the model's 12-week view of implies another 21% of downside. The reason is fuel: management flagged a $4bn increase in 2026 fuel costs and second-quarter fuel expense was up 77% year-on-year, the highest quarterly fuel bill in the airline's history. Delta has reaffirmed full-year guidance and raised its dividend 15%, but a stock the market marks lower through good guidance and into a crude-oil shock is telling a different story than its income statement. Basis L2 (decisive stop-break + negative 12wk) on four consecutive NO TRADE prints; `NoTrade|sell` bias +0 (n=57). 7th consecutive ask - the six prior full-exit cards never filled (executor blocked). Action price is the anchor close; the row prints no Entry_Price. Drop the stop from the monitor after the fill. · news

decided @ 78.24 · t1w 76.63 · t4w 72.87 · t12w 62.12

American Express keeps grinding lower: the shares closed at, below every major moving average including the 200-day at, and the model's 12-week view of implies a further 13% downside. The valuation work marks it OVERVALUED on a residual-income basis, and while the business is fine - Q2 revenue grew 19% and management still guides to 10% full-year growth - the chart has been broken for months and credit-quality questions are building. We are cutting half the position and keeping the rest, rather than defending a name the market has marked down for a quarter. Trend-exit basis (close below EMA200 + negative 12wk), NOT the conviction floor: tonight's engine label flipped to a bullish ReversalUp_Oversold at cv57, which does not clear 65 and whose |sell cell has n=1. Portion held at 50% because the reversal setup argues against a full cut. 7th consecutive ask (L3/US-1); the six prior cards never executed - executor blocked since 2026-08-18. Stop on the 17,330-sh remainder held at (never lower a trail). Engine printed Target_Price ABOVE the close on this row - a long-side target, not the exit path; 4wk time-scaled from the 12wk instead. · news

decided @ 320.71 · stop 317.92 · t1w 316.44 · t4w 306.47 · t12w 278.03

Moody's has broken down and the news now agrees with the chart. The stock closed at, 5.4% below our risk line and for the first time decisively under its 200-day average, and the 12-week view has flipped negative. Peer S&P Global's weak 2026 outlook knocked the whole ratings-and-analytics group lower, Moody's itself trimmed 2026 operating-margin guidance to 44-45%, and it has just put the business-development-company sector on negative outlook - a direct read-through to the private-credit issuance that drives its own revenue. It is a high-quality business (3rd best quality rank in this book) but marked OVERVALUED, so we halve rather than exit. Escalated exactly as promised on the 09-09 card: close stayed below and the 12wk stayed negative (-1.26% -> -4.35%). Basis is L2 + EMA200 break, not the conviction floor - `RallySell_BearTrend|sell` is the book's worst cell at -8 (n=15, hit.077), which haircuts cv52 to 44 and is why the portion is 50%, not the engine's 88.5%. Stop on the 2,502-sh remainder RE-BASED -> (close - 1.5 ATR), earned by the cut and conditional on the fill. Engine printed Target_Price ABOVE the close on an AVOID row again - 4wk time-scaled from the 12wk. · news

decided @ 467.36 · stop 450.30 · t1w 465.33 · t4w 460.58 · t12w 447.04

A measured pyramid onto a one-day-old winner that the news flow has since validated. Micron gapped +6.1% as the NAND/DRAM pricing cycle re-accelerated, with Dell's record $95bn AI-server backlog cited as a direct demand driver - which is notable because Dell is already this book's largest holding, so the same catalyst is now paying twice. Micron carries the book's #1 quality rank and its 12-week projection points 11.6% higher. The add is kept small and risk-defined because conviction printed flat rather than rising. Raw 76, val_adj -6 (MoS -1.16) -> adjusted 70. Held @ 971.06 (+4.69%, filled at this morning's open). ADD sizing (held-name path): 50.71% x = 40.6, x0.75 size mod = =. Entry range 1005.27-1027.91. Stop 969.00 = -4.68%; 4wk 1107.13 = +8.91%, R:R 1.90:1. 12wk 1134.12 exceeds DCF anchor 772.94 - projection assumes growth beyond priced-in. ASSUMPTION STATED: the scan CSV was written at 06:00:17 before the 06:00:35 executor fill, so it prints MU as unheld (Held=N) with a fresh-entry; per UT-7 the 80-share holding from input/ustechportfolio.json governs and the conservative ADD formula is used rather than the fresh-entry. L6 check passed: MU FQ4 earnings are 09-30, so this is a sector re-rating not a post-earnings gap; ATR expanded only +8.6% (41.7->45.3), well short of the UT-10 spike bar. L7: MU also signals in us/ussemicon - execute once across books. · news

decided @ 1016.59 · stop 969.00 · t1w 1043.75 · t4w 1107.13 · t12w 1134.12

TSMC is the highest-conviction fresh signal in the book: it broke out of a three-session stall to a Buy_Rank #1 STRONG BUY on the back of a monthly sales update showing robust AI demand, record 2026 capex guidance of -64bn and full-year revenue growth above 40%. The technical setup is clean rather than stretched - the close sits in a perfect EMA10>20>50>200 bull stack with RSI 57, so this is an entry into strength, not a chase. Valuation is the offset: at a deeply negative margin of safety the position is deliberately taken at half size. Raw conviction 86, val_adj -10 (MoS -13.82) -> adjusted 76. Size mod 0.5x (MoS <= -3). Sizing: 0.6695 x equity x 20% buy_pct =, x0.5 = / 428.91 = =. Entry range 426.50-431.32 (+/-0.25 ATR). Stop 419.45 = -2.21% (0.98 ATR); 4wk target 448.19 = +4.49%, R:R 2.03:1. CAVEAT: Target_12Week 416.00 is BELOW the entry (-3.01%) - treat this as a 4-week swing, not a 12-week hold, and it is a second reason the size is halved. DCF_per_share 46.21 is a unit-mismatch artifact on the ADR (systemic finding 2), so the DCF anchor annotation is not meaningful here. Book has sold TSM twice before (07-@414.91, 08-@409.54); re-entry is 3.4% above the last exit. L7: TSM likely also signals in us/ussemicon - execute once across books. · news

decided @ 428.91 · stop 419.45 · t1w 434.69 · t4w 448.19 · t12w 416.00