This website is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and assess your own risk tolerance before making investment decisions.

Paper-portfolio lab Educational

The Books

Academic paper portfolios run on the same signal engine — some decided manually by a human, some by AI — ranked within their own market by a base-100 Total-Return Index that resets to 100 at the start of every calendar quarter (closed quarters keep their final standings below). US, HK and SG books are never compared against each other. Position sizes and account values are never shown.

United States · USD · ranked within market only Q4 2026 to date

Manual · 1 book 93.7 median QTD index
AI · 4 books 98.4 median QTD index
# Book Decided by Q4 index QTD 1W 4W 12W Latest verdict Trend
1 AI · Berkshire Doctrine AI 🤖 100.3 +0.3% +0.7% — — 12 November 2026
2 AI · Berkshire Mirror AI 🤖 98.7 -1.3% -0.5% -1.4% -2.9% 12 November 2026
3 AI · US Semiconductors AI 🤖 98.2 -1.8% -0.3% -1.5% -1.6% 12 November 2026
4 US Main Manual 93.7 -6.3% +6.5% -4.5% +0.4% 12 November 2026
5 AI · US Tech AI 🤖 90.5 -9.5% +4.9% -7.6% -5.1% 13 November 2026
— AI · US Space idle · unranked AI 🤖 100.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12 November 2026
— Sector ETFs idle · unranked Manual 100.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12 November 2026

Hong Kong · HKD · ranked within market only Q4 2026 to date

Manual · 1 book 75.2 median QTD index
AI · 3 books 99.8 median QTD index
# Book Decided by Q4 index QTD 1W 4W 12W Latest verdict Trend
1 AI · HK Financials AI 🤖 100.0 0.0% -0.1% +0.3% +1.1% 13 November 2026
2 AI · HK Tech AI 🤖 99.8 -0.2% 0.0% 0.0% +2.1% 13 November 2026
3 AI · HK Semiconductors AI 🤖 95.9 -4.1% -0.3% +0.3% -6.7% 13 November 2026
4 Hong Kong Main Manual 75.2 -24.8% +1.0% -19.6% -36.2% 13 November 2026
— AI · HK Leveraged ETFs idle · unranked AI 🤖 100.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13 November 2026

Singapore · SGD · ranked within market only Q4 2026 to date

Manual · 1 book 92.0 median QTD index
AI · 2 books 98.7 median QTD index
# Book Decided by Q4 index QTD 1W 4W 12W Latest verdict Trend
1 AI · SG REITs AI 🤖 99.8 -0.2% 0.0% 0.0% -0.5% 13 November 2026
2 AI · SG Blue Chips AI 🤖 97.6 -2.4% 0.0% 0.0% -4.5% 11 November 2026
3 Singapore Main Manual 92.0 -8.0% -1.6% -4.9% -7.8% 13 November 2026
— AI · SG Mid/Small Cap idle · unranked AI 🤖 100.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13 November 2026

Q3 2026 final standings · closed quarter · base 100 at the start of the quarter

United States · USD

#BookDecided byFinal indexReturn
1 AI · US Tech AI 🤖 103.8 +3.8%
2 US Main Manual 102.2 +2.2%
3 AI · Berkshire Mirror AI 🤖 98.7 -1.3%
4 AI · US Semiconductors AI 🤖 98.1 -1.9%
— AI · Berkshire Doctrine AI 🤖 — —
— AI · US Space idle · unranked AI 🤖 100.0 0.0%
— Sector ETFs idle · unranked Manual 100.0 0.0%

Hong Kong · HKD

#BookDecided byFinal indexReturn
1 AI · HK Semiconductors AI 🤖 119.4 +19.4%
2 AI · HK Tech AI 🤖 106.0 +6.0%
3 AI · HK Financials AI 🤖 101.8 +1.8%
4 Hong Kong Main Manual 78.9 -21.1%
— AI · HK Leveraged ETFs idle · unranked AI 🤖 100.0 0.0%

Singapore · SGD

#BookDecided byFinal indexReturn
1 Singapore Main Manual 103.8 +3.8%
2 AI · SG Blue Chips AI 🤖 99.4 -0.6%
3 AI · SG REITs AI 🤖 99.2 -0.8%
— AI · SG Mid/Small Cap idle · unranked AI 🤖 100.0 0.0%

Outcome & track record

Books whose past decisions have been graded against realized prices — the honest record behind the index. Ungraded books are building their sample.

BookGraded1W calib Strongest cellWeakest cell
Sector ETFs 180 -0.43 FailedBreakdown_Up_20D · sell — 77% 1W (n=17) PullbackBuy_VWAP · buy — 17% 1W (n=24) Track record
US Main 351 -0.31 AnticipationUp_VCP · buy — 93% 1W (n=15) BreakdownDown_20D · sell — 13% 1W (n=10) Track record
AI · Berkshire Mirror 315 -0.49 RallySell_BearTrend · sell — 70% 1W (n=24) PullbackBuy_VWAP · buy — 7% 1W (n=15) Track record
AI · Berkshire Doctrine 1 0.11 — — Track record
AI · US Semiconductors 121 0.09 BreakdownDown_20D · sell — 60% 1W (n=7) FailedBreakdown_Up_20D · buy — 14% 1W (n=7) Track record
AI · US Tech 94 0.04 FailedBreakout_Down_20D · sell — 71% 1W (n=9) FailedBreakdown_Up_20D · sell — 32% 1W (n=22) Track record
Hong Kong Main 365 -0.70 NoTrade · sell — 84% 1W (n=39) MomentumContinuation_Up · buy — 0% 1W (n=5) Track record
AI · HK Financials 87 0.79 FailedBreakdown_Up_20D · buy — 88% 1W (n=8) NoTrade · sell — 11% 1W (n=9) Track record
AI · HK Semiconductors 21 -0.90 FailedBreakdown_Up_20D · buy — 14% 1W (n=8) — Track record
AI · HK Tech 6 2.12 — — Track record
Singapore Main 147 -1.33 RallySell_BearTrend · sell — 80% 1W (n=10) PullbackBuy_VWAP · buy — 13% 1W (n=8) Track record
AI · SG Mid/Small Cap 1 0.24 — — Track record
AI · SG Blue Chips 57 -0.95 FailedBreakout_Down_20D · sell — 100% 1W (n=5) PullbackBuy_VWAP · buy — 13% 1W (n=8) Track record
AI · SG REITs 39 -1.44 RallySell_BearTrend · sell — 75% 1W (n=8) FailedBreakout_Down_20D · sell — 63% 1W (n=24) Track record

Fair value

Intrinsic-valuation snapshot per book — undervalued counts and the widest margins of safety. Valuation informs sizing; it never originates a trade.

BookUndervaluedBargains ★ Widest margins of safety
Sector ETFs 0 0 — Fair value
US Main 0 5 — Fair value
AI · Berkshire Mirror 3 6 ALLY +9% · KR +3% · CB +1% Fair value
AI · Berkshire Doctrine 1 5 ALLY +18% Fair value
AI · US Semiconductors 0 1 — Fair value
AI · US Space 0 0 — Fair value
AI · US Tech 0 2 — Fair value
Hong Kong Main 7 7 2318 +48% · 1024 +41% · 0316 +28% Fair value
AI · HK Financials 1 0 0966 +79% · 2318 +50% · 3968 +19% Fair value
AI · HK Leveraged ETFs 0 0 — Fair value
AI · HK Semiconductors 2 4 2318 +49% · 0148 +1% · 2382 +0% Fair value
AI · HK Tech 3 6 2318 +49% · 1024 +42% · 9618 +27% Fair value
Singapore Main 3 6 C07 +63% · J36 +44% · B61 +26% Fair value
AI · SG Mid/Small Cap 2 5 S71 +55% · 8AZ +27% Fair value
AI · SG Blue Chips 3 3 C07 +63% · J36 +44% · B61 +26% Fair value
AI · SG REITs 0 1 — Fair value

Recent trades

The latest virtual fills across all books, newest first — expand a row for the model's reasoning. Ordered by date only; performance is never compared across markets.

DateBookTickerNameSideFill PxSignalConvValuationWhy
2026-11-13AI · HK Semiconductors3750CATLSELL374.20FailedBreakout_Down_20D36FAIR
rationale

CATL's signal flipped to a sell after it reversed from the open high to close down 3.4% at 374.20; it is fairly valued and still 3% in profit, so the book banks half and keeps the rest on its 359.01 stop. Ops: STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv36 single print, engine Portion 96% cut to 50% (sub-65 conviction, stop unbroken, railed T12 - HS-38). Residual 400: exit next open on a close <359.01 (HS-3) OR a 2nd consecutive REDUCE print (HS-33). Market at open, no reprice clause (HS-68). · news

decided @ 374.20 · stop 359.01 · t1w 381.69 · t4w 399.15 ·

2026-11-12US MainLLYEli LillySELL1440.88AnticipationUp_VCP64GROWTH PRICED IN
rationale

Lilly is the book's biggest winner (+36%, Gain_ATR 8.0) and its profit-take has now fired on two independent ticks: a 2nd consecutive RSI divergence (a), and conviction collapsing from a HOLD (b, valid per US-83). 2 ticks = the 50% tier; MoS -2.88 gives no bump. Bank and keep 40 on a trail raised to 1365.17. Profit-take (armed + ticks a,b). This fires the 11-10 written trigger; the tier rises % on the newly-satisfied tick (b) (US-87 principle). Ex-div 11-13 (/sh forgone on the sold shares). · news

decided @ 1437.29 · stop 1365.17 · t1w 1437.34 · t4w 1440.78 · t12w 1583.06

2026-11-11US MainLLYEli LillySELL1422.00AnticipationUp_VCP64GROWTH PRICED IN
rationale

Lilly is the book's biggest winner (+36%, Gain_ATR 8.0) and its profit-take has now fired on two independent ticks: a 2nd consecutive RSI divergence (a), and conviction collapsing from a HOLD (b, valid per US-83). 2 ticks = the 50% tier; MoS -2.88 gives no bump. Bank and keep 40 on a trail raised to 1365.17. Profit-take (armed + ticks a,b). This fires the 11-10 written trigger; the tier rises % on the newly-satisfied tick (b) (US-87 principle). Ex-div 11-13 (/sh forgone on the sold shares). · news

decided @ 1437.29 · stop 1365.17 · t1w 1437.34 · t4w 1440.78 · t12w 1583.06

2026-11-10US MainOKTA—BUY178.00————
2026-11-10AI · HK Financials3328Bank of CommunicationsBUY8.83MomentumContinuation_Up82—
rationale

BoCom upgraded to STRONG BUY - ADD (cv82, MomentumContinuation) after three straight high-conviction holds, and China's big banks rallied on solid Q3 results (BoCom profit +10.1%). We pyramid the winner at the model's entry. Ops: fires the 11-05 re-arm pre-commit (SBA cv>=75, Est_1W 8.85 >= Entry 8.83); HF-3 clear (Est_12W 8.99 > close 8.86). 77.96% x 13,000 = 10,135 -> = HK. RSI_DIV is not armed (Gain 1.64 ATR) and does not block. Stop ratcheted 8.32 -> 8.37. Forward view is thin (+1.8% 12wk). Expires 11-12. · news

decided @ 8.83 · stop 8.37 · t1w 8.85 · t4w 8.88 · t12w 8.99

2026-11-06AI · HK Financials0005HSBC HDGS(USD0.50) HK O'SEASSELL137.20FailedBreakout_Down_20D82—
rationale

HSBC printed STRONG SELL - REDUCE (cv82, FailedBreakout_Down_20D) right after a +3.4% pop to 141.10, and HK sell signals have been this book's reliable cell. Sell half and bank +6% on the 133.00 fill. Ops: this is the 2nd consecutive non-bullish held print (NO TRADE -> SSR), which fires the 11-04 pre-commit SELL 400. The model asks 85%, but a single late-flipped print sizes at the lower tier (HF-P55 spirit), and the makes it. The Est_* path is mildly positive (+1-3%), so we keep the other lot. Residual stop 133.60 (printed, about breakeven). A 2nd SSR print -> SELL the last 400. · news

decided @ 141.10 · stop 133.60 · t1w 142.50 · t4w 143.09 · t12w 145.77

2026-11-06AI · HK Financials3988Bank of ChinaSELL6.10FailedBreakout_Down_20D62—
rationale

BoC flipped to AVOID (bearish FailedBreakout_Down, cv62) on its 2nd straight non-bullish print, and the forward view is flat at every horizon (Est 6.08/6.09/6.09). Trim 30% into the +2.5% bounce. Ops: this fires the 11-04 pre-commit (consecutive_non_bullish = 2) as written (HF-P22). 30% of 6,000 =. The count resets on the cut. Residual 4,000: stop 5.67; 2 more consecutive non-bullish prints -> SELL 1,000.

decided @ 6.09 · stop 5.67 · t1w 6.08 · t4w 6.09 · t12w 6.09

2026-11-06AI · HK Financials0388HKEXBUY385.97BreakoutUp_20D71OVERVALUED VS RI
rationale

HKEX printed a STRONG BUY breakout (cv85) on a +2.8% close. The model's own entry sits 1.1 ATR below the market, so we bid there rather than chase. Valuation is only mildly rich (MoS -0.77) and the quality gate passes. Ops: adj 85-4(val)-10(BreakoutUp_20D|buy bias, 0/6 hit) = 71, which clears the floor. HF-3: Est_12W 385.99 is below the close but equal to the entry, so the order is a queue-at-pullback, not a chase. HF-4 is clear (Est_1W 399.34 >= entry). Sizing 0.904 x HK x 20% = HK -> = HK. Q3 results are due ~11-06 (Yahoo), inside the queue window; a fill on a results dip is a pullback fill, and the stop is 366.39. Expires 11-10. · news

decided @ 385.97 · stop 366.39 · t1w 399.34 · t4w 399.02 · t12w 385.99

2026-11-06AI · HK Financials0939CCB - H SHSBUY10.49MomentumContinuation_Up90—
rationale

CCB upgraded to STRONG BUY - ADD at conviction 90 (MomentumContinuation, from HOLD 72) on a fresh high close, so we pyramid the winner. Ops: the model's buy-stop is 10.56, but Est_1W 10.49 < 10.56, so HF-4 demotes it to a pullback limit at entry - 0.25 ATR (10.49). 77.96% x 13,000 = 10,135 -> = HK. HF-3 is clear (Est_12W 10.60 > close). PROFIT_ARMED is the T12 artifact (true progress 84%, Gain 2.14 ATR < 3), so it is not armed. Stop ratcheted 9.87 -> 9.96. Expires 11-10.

decided @ 10.49 · stop 9.96 · t1w 10.49 · t4w 10.53 · t12w 10.60

2026-11-04AI · HK Financials3988Bank of ChinaSELL5.81NoTrade0—
rationale

Bank of China closed below its stop for the first time (5.85 vs 5.86) and printed a second straight NO TRADE ('Consensus conflict + low conviction'), so the written pre-commit fires: sell at the next open. It is a first-step trim, not a full exit, because the 12-week estimate (5.89) is still above the close, so L2's negative-12wk leg is not met. Both 11-02 triggers fired at once and execute as ONE order (no stacking). The breach is marginal (0.17%, 0.06 ATR) but the comparator is strict per HF-P22. NoTrade|sell bias -8 not applied (HF-P28/P52/P63 phantom-grade caveat). Remaining 6,000 get a 5.67 stop (close - 1.0 ATR). Sector context: Q3 bank profits beat, the post-print rally reversed, and no source explains the BoC weakness. Valuation NA_CCY, so val_adj 0. · news

decided @ 5.85 · stop 5.86 · t1w 5.86 · t4w 5.86 · t12w 5.89

2026-11-04AI · HK Financials0005HSBC HDGS(USD0.50) HK O'SEASBUY133.00OversoldBounce_Up73—
rationale

HSBC prints a fresh BUY at conviction 73 and Buy_Rank 1. It is an oversold bounce at RSI 28.8 after a two-week slide from ~163, and both the 1-week (135.66) and 12-week (136.25) estimates sit above the 134.10 entry, so this is not a falling knife. We buy at the printed entry with a 128.98 stop (-3.8%, 1.65 ATR). Gates: HF-3 non-inverted 12wk MET (+1.6% vs close); HF-4 Est_1W >= Entry MET (+1.2%); quality gate OFF on an NA_CCY row (gate passes NA_*, precedent 08-17/09-04); no cell for OversoldBounce_Up|buy, so bias 0; Entry_Distance 0.0 and close near the session low, so no chase. Size 26.5% x HKx 20% = HK / 134.10 =, x1.0 (NA). Limit at the printed entry per HF-P13. Third-interim ex-dividend ~11-05 per hk horizon (advisory). Single print: one signal only, so stability is low. Reprice per L8 on a >1.5% gap. · news

decided @ 134.10 · stop 128.98 · t1w 135.66 · t4w 137.89 · t12w 136.25

2026-11-04AI · HK Semiconductors3750CATLBUY362.40OversoldBounce_Up68FAIR
rationale

CATL printed a second consecutive oversold-bounce buy and closed up on a broad down day, meeting the book's written re-arm. It is fairly valued and passes the quality screen. Ops: market at 11-04 open, reprice/skip if gap >1.5% (>=366.40, midterms priced same open); 67.43% x 2,282,370 x 20% -> (lot 100), risk HK = 1.74% (HS-13); R:R 0.77 and L1 discount noted; 12wk railed (HS-38). · news

decided @ 361.00 · stop 311.32 · t1w 372.45 · t4w 399.15 · t12w 205.77

2026-11-03US MainOKTA—BUY186.00————
2026-11-02AI · HK Financials0939CCB - H SHSBUY10.24BreakoutUp_20D82—
rationale

CCB held its STRONG BUY-ADD on a second straight breakout close (10.26, conviction 82), but the 1-week estimate of 10.21 sits below the printed 10.29 entry, so the add is repriced to a half-size limit at 10.24 rather than bought through the trigger ahead of Q3 results. Supersedes the unfilled 10-@10.09 limit (low 10.10, missed by 0.01), which is outside the live provenance band 10.24-10.34; this replaces it, it does not stack. HF-4 material (Est_1W -0.78% vs Entry) -> demote, not veto (HF-P67), half size (HF-P35); 10.24 is the provenance-band floor because Est_1W 10.21 is outside it. Size 77.96% x 9,000 = 7,016 x 0.5 =. Stop raised 9.66 -> 9.87 (printed; 1.84 ATR cushion). HF-3 clears (10.41 > 10.26). Reprice per L8 on a >1.5% gap. · news

decided @ 10.24 · stop 9.87 · t1w 10.21 · t4w 10.25 · t12w 10.41

2026-11-02AI · HK Financials3968China Merchants BankBUY54.55BreakoutUp_20D100—
rationale

China Merchants Bank printed the book's top signal, a STRONG BUY at conviction 100 on a 20-day breakout to a 52-week closing high, so reopen the line at half size at the printed 54.57. Half size because the 12-week estimate of 54.87 is only +0.5% above entry and Q3 results are not yet out. Written 3968 re-arm: cv>=65 MET, Est_1W 54.58 >= Entry MET, Est_12W >= 1.01 x Entry (55.12) MISSED by 0.25 (0.45%, 0.18 ATR), which is above the HF-P14 de-minimis band, so HF-P35's small-shortfall disposition applies (half size, limit). Size 90.4% x HKx 20% = HK x 0.5 =. gtc_limit rather than the printed buy-stop so an unseen Q3 gap-up cannot fill it (L6). Val NA (FV_Flag jump): val_adj 0, gate off. BreakoutUp_20D|buy 0/3 is report-only. Top-up re-arm in state. Reprice per L8 on a >1.5% gap. · news

decided @ 54.57 · stop 50.99 · t1w 54.58 · t4w 55.08 · t12w 54.87

2026-10-31AI · Berkshire DoctrineGOOGLALPHABET INCBUY281.09ReversalUp_Oversold—GROWTH PRICED IN
rationale

Q ended 2026-06-30 (pub 2026-07-23): rev +24.2% YoY; margin elevated by one-time gains. No sustainable catalyst to add. Hold. The fund holds Alphabet at a 6.59% weight. After the -12.6% fall on the Q3 EPS miss the position has drifted to 5.45%, so holding at weight means buying back to target. Target Book 6.59% vs held 5.45% (gap +1.14pp). Under-weight by 1.14pp: market at next open. Technicals agree on direction (ReversalUp_Oversold conv 90, RSI 22). The 12wk projection 197.41 is a gap-extrapolation and the valuation is GROWTH_PRICED_IN; both are annotation only, and doctrine buys to target. The post-earnings gap is DOWN, so this is not an L6 chase. Per L8, reprice if the 10-30 open gaps >~1.5% from 283.82. GOOG (+0.38pp under) is sub-threshold: no card. · news

decided @ 283.82 · stop 254.37 · t1w 297.86 · t4w 330.62 · t12w 197.41

2026-10-30AI · HK Financials3328Bank of CommunicationsBUY8.48FailedBreakdown_Up_20D72—
rationale

BoCom graduated from three rising WATCH prints -> 55) to a BUY at cv72 (Buy_Rank 3), with every model horizon at or above the 8.48 entry and a tight 8.32 stop (-1.9%), so open a starter position at the printed entry. HF-3 clears (Est_12W 8.63 > close 8.485); HF-4 clears (Est_1W 8.50 >= 8.48). The quality gate is off because the row is NA_CCY (HF-P32). Size 26.5% x HK x 20% = HK ->, ~HK. FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy +7 bias NOT applied (HF-P28/P63: phantom-contaminated cell); raw cv72 clears the floor unaided. Reprice per L8 if the open gaps >1.5%.

decided @ 8.48 · stop 8.32 · t1w 8.50 · t4w 8.55 · t12w 8.63

2026-10-30AI · HK Financials3988Bank of ChinaBUY6.10PullbackBuy_VWAP82—
rationale

Bank of China flipped from HOLD 47 to STRONG BUY-ADD cv82 on a VWAP pullback-buy, the book's L1-favoured entry shape, with 1-week, 4-week and 12-week estimates (6.14 / 6.18 / 6.37) all above the 6.10 entry, so add at the printed level. Entry_Distance -0.25 ATR sits at the no-chase threshold, so it is queued at the printed Entry (gtc_limit), not bought at the close. Size 77.96% x 5,000 =. Carried stop 5.86 kept (printed 5.82 is lower; ratchet). Single print after HOLD: not a direction reversal (HF-P54/55 discount not triggered); HF-Q14 is PROPOSED/inert. PullbackBuy_VWAP|buy n=4 is report-only.

decided @ 6.10 · stop 5.86 · t1w 6.14 · t4w 6.18 · t12w 6.37

2026-10-29US MainGOOGL—BUY285.00————
2026-10-29Hong Kong Main7709XL2CSOPHYNIXSELL26.00FailedBreakout_Down_20D79—
rationale

The 2x SK Hynix ETF printed STRONG SELL-REDUCE on every scan today in a trusted sell family; trim half per the leveraged-ETF rule rather than exiting fully. OPS: conv 75 >= 70 but close 18.90 above state stop 14.18 -> 50% trim; SK Hynix Q3 10-28; residual 900 stop 14.18. · news

decided @ 18.90 · stop 14.18 · t1w 19.98 · t4w 20.51 · t12w 24.00

This website is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and assess your own risk tolerance before making investment decisions.