US — End-of-Day Verdict
ACQUIRE NO ACTION (0 of <=3) - 14th consecutive session with no admissible new BUY (US-20): AMZN adj 63 (quality-gate F=6 + extended -0.97 ATR, +5.1% past entry), SNOW adj 52 (cell -10, F=5), CRM adj 52 (F=7 but below EMA200), DDOG adj 51 (F=5), NET adj 51 (F=3, MoS -940). Zero PullbackBuy_VWAP candidates printed. ANTICIPATE 0 of <=1 - WDS (adj 74, F=4) and VIST (adj 78, UNDERVALUED, Quality_Pass True) both printed BUY - ANTICIPATE for the first time but each in only 1 of the last 3 snapshots (rule needs >=2). | DISPOSE 3 of <=3: META full exit 60 @ ~556.71 - L2 both legs, 9th session -10.21% below stop + dead 12wk, 2nd consecutive STRONG SELL - REDUCE, 8th re-fire; KLAC 50% trim @ ~182.82 - 2nd consecutive STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv76 Sell_Rank 1, adj 78 (highest in the book), US-18 satisfied, G2 suppresses the valuation amplify, keep-core 500; NVDA 30% trim @ ~200.75 - ADR-0012 armed (T12_Progress 100.61) + soft tick (c) dead forward, de-escalated from the pending 50%, execute ONCE vs ussemicon. | The session rotated out of the chip complex into the megacap laggard: GOOGL +6.73% to 356.13 (reclaimed all four EMAs, overlay healed), META +3.28%, NVDA +2.93%, against MU -5.90% giving back a third of the +18.4% bounce. | : buys sells free ->.
Total-Return Index 88.5 -11.5% since inception Performance ›
Event Horizon · next 10 trading days as of 2026-07-27
| Date | Event | Scope | Names | Dir | 1wk band | (ATR) | Stance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-28 | KLA Corp fiscal Q4 2026 earnings (AMC) KLA guided FQ4 revenue to 3.575bn USD and non-GAAP EPS of 9.87 +/- 1.00 against consensus nearer 3.61bn; the process-control order book and the September-quarter guide are the cleanest read on leading-edge foundry/logic and memory WFE spend, which sets the tone for the semi-cap and memory complex including MU. confidence: high · source | direct | KLACHMUH | ↕ | ±8.0% | ±1.3 | hold through |
| 07-29 | FOMC rate decision 2:00pm ET + Chair Warsh press conference 2:30pm ET FactSet consensus is a fifth consecutive hold at 3.50-3.75%, but reignited inflation plus Brent crude near 100/bbl on Middle-East escalation has turned this into a live hike-debate meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, with more officials flagging a hike ahead; long-duration AI/growth multiples in this book carry roughly 1.5-2x index beta to a hawkish repricing of the terminal rate. confidence: med · source | macro | GOOGLHKLACHLLYHMETAHMUHNBISHNVDAHOKTAH | ↕ | ±3.0% | ±0.9 | tighten trail |
| 07-29 | Meta Platforms Q2 2026 earnings (AMC, 4:30pm ET call) Consensus is ~60.17bn USD revenue (+26.6% y/y) and 7.13 EPS, near the top of Meta's own guide, with BofA positioned for a beat; the gap driver is the 2026-27 AI capex guide set against ad monetisation, and it prints into the same session as the FOMC decision so the Jul 30 open fuses a macro repricing with an idiosyncratic gap. confidence: high · source | direct | METAH | ↕ | ±10.0% | ±2.5 | hold through |
| 07-29 | Nebius Group Q2 2026 results (DATE UNCONFIRMED - see discovery gaps) Neocloud revenue ramp, contracted GPU capacity and cash burn against the 7-9bn USD annualised run-rate ambition, now with Nvidia holding a disclosed 9.3% stake; thin float and a ~13% ATR make NBIS the widest percentage gap risk in the book. Investing.com lists Jul 29 while the prior horizon run researched ~Aug 6 - either date sits inside this window so the stance is unchanged, but do not treat the day as fixed. confidence: med · source | direct | NBISH | ↕ | ±20.0% | ±1.5 | hold through |
| 07-29 | Microsoft FY26 Q4 earnings + Azure capex guide (AMC) Microsoft is the largest disclosed AI-infrastructure spender printing in this window; its FY27 capex framing is the primary demand signal for NVDA accelerator bookings, for NBIS neocloud pricing power (hyperscaler capacity spill-over is its core demand channel), and one step further back for KLAC WFE orders. confidence: med · source | ecosystem | MSFTHNVDAHNBISHKLAC | ↕ | ±6.0% | ±1.7 | add after print |
| 07-29 | SK Hynix Q2 2026 results + HBM supply/pricing outlook Hynix is Micron's closest HBM competitor; Bernstein models Q2 HBM revenue +25% q/q to 7.6bn USD. Its forward outlook has repriced the memory complex before - a prior weak Hynix guide knocked MU, SNDK and WDC ~6% in a session - so DRAM/HBM pricing and 2027 capacity commentary transmits directly into MU and, via memory capex, into KLAC. confidence: med · source | ecosystem | MUHKLACH | ↕ | ±9.0% | ±1.1 | hold through |
| 07-29 | Qualcomm fiscal Q3 2026 + Arm Holdings earnings Both are leading-edge logic customers whose unit and royalty commentary feeds foundry utilisation assumptions, a second-order input to KLAC process-control demand; QCOM and ARM are watch-list rows in this book, so the read-through is real but thin. confidence: low · source | ecosystem | QCOMHARMKLAC | ↕ | ±2.0% | ±0.3 | none |
| 07-30 | Apple FY26 Q3 and Amazon Q2 2026 earnings (both AMC) AWS capacity and capex commentary is the second hyperscaler datapoint of the week for NVDA and NBIS demand, while Apple silicon build plans read into leading-edge foundry loading and therefore KLAC; together with Microsoft the Jul 29-30 pair sets the AI-infra spend narrative for the rest of the window. confidence: med · source | ecosystem | AAPLHAMZNHNVDAHNBISKLAC | ↕ | ±5.0% | ±1.4 | add after print |
| 07-31 | June PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge (date calendar-inferred) The first inflation print after the FOMC decision; with the Committee openly debating a hike, a hot core PCE pulls forward hike odds and compresses long-duration multiples across the book, while a cool print releases whatever pressure Warsh's press conference applied two days earlier. confidence: low · source | macro | GOOGLHKLACHLLYHMETAHMUHNBISHNVDAHOKTAH | ↕ | ±1.5% | ±0.4 | none |
| 07-31 | Month-end index rebalance flows + July option series roll Month-end tracker rebalancing plus the roll out of July option series mechanically amplifies whatever the Jul 29-30 earnings gaps did to index weights - names that gapped hardest attract the largest non-fundamental flow, in either direction, into the close. confidence: low · source | structure | GOOGLHKLACHLLYHMETAHMUHNBISHNVDAHOKTAH | ↕ | ±1.0% | ±0.3 | none |
| 08-03 | ISM Manufacturing PMI (July) First-business-day cyclical read; a sub-50 manufacturing print pressures the semi-cap cyclical bid (KLAC, MU) more than the AI-secular names, and feeds the growth-versus-inflation framing the Fed is now openly arguing about. confidence: low · source | macro | KLACHMUHNVDAH | ↕ | ±1.0% | ±0.3 | none |
| 08-04 | SpaceX maiden Q2 2026 earnings - first report as a public company (AMC, 4:30pm ET) SpaceX's first-ever public print since the Jun 12 IPO priced at 135/share, with the stock roughly 47% off its post-IPO high and trading below the offer price; there is no reporting history, no established guidance cadence and no consensus anchor, so Starlink subscriber economics, launch cadence and free-cash-flow disclosure all land at once. It also mechanically arms the Aug 6 lock-up unlock two trading days later. confidence: high · source | direct | SPCXH | ↕ | ±18.0% | — | hold through |
| 08-04 | AMD Q2 2026 earnings (AMC) AMD's MI-series datacenter GPU traction and second-half guide is the cleanest public gauge of whether accelerator share is shifting away from NVDA, and its HBM attach rate adds incremental demand context for MU. confidence: med · source | ecosystem | AMDHNVDAHMU | ↕ | ±4.0% | ±1.1 | none |
| 08-05 | Eli Lilly Q2 2026 earnings (BMO) Consensus sits at ~6.94 normalised EPS on ~20.65bn USD revenue; the swing factors are GLP-1 franchise scripts and pricing (Mounjaro/Zepbound), oral-GLP-1 launch economics and the full-year guide. This is the one held name whose gap is uncorrelated to the AI/semi cluster driving the rest of the window. confidence: high · source | direct | LLYH | ↕ | ±7.0% | ±2.4 | hold through |
| 08-05 | ISM Services PMI (July) + ADP employment change Services activity and the ADP labour read are the market's dress rehearsal for Friday's payrolls; a hot pairing raises hike odds into NFP and pressures the highest-multiple software and AI names first (OKTA, NBIS). confidence: low · source | macro | GOOGLHMETAHNBISHNVDAHOKTAH | ↕ | ±1.0% | ±0.3 | none |
| 08-06 | SpaceX IPO lock-up expiry - ~911.5M shares (~116-123bn USD of stock) become eligible to trade Under the staged agreement, 20% of insider and rank-and-file employee holdings - up to ~911.5M shares - unlock two trading days after the Aug 4 print, one of the largest single unlock events in recent market history. Musk's controlling stake and key executive shares stay restricted until Jun 12, 2027. Supply skews the risk down, but Morgan Stanley argues fundamentals are largely unchanged and the level is an attractive entry, and the freed float is also what makes index inclusion mechanically possible - hence a two-sided but down-skewed band. confidence: high · source | direct | SPCXH | ↕ | -25.0…+10.0% | — | tighten trail |
| 08-07 | Nonfarm Payrolls (July), 8:30am ET The window's largest scheduled macro print after the FOMC. With the Committee arguing about a hike rather than a cut, the usual sign convention inverts: a hot payrolls number is now the risk-off tail for long-duration growth, while a soft print is supportive unless it is soft enough to raise demand concerns for the semi-cap cyclicals. confidence: med · source | macro | GOOGLHKLACHLLYHMETAHMUHNBISHNVDAHOKTAH | ↕ | ±2.0% | ±0.6 | none |
| 08-07 | SPCX float expansion opens index-eligibility mechanics (Nasdaq-100 / Russell) - no confirmed effective date The Aug 6 unlock lifts SpaceX free float above the thresholds that gate Nasdaq-100, Russell 1000/Top 200 and related growth/value benchmark entry, which would force a wide range of index funds and ETFs to establish positions; the tracker bid runs against unlocked insider supply in the same days, so direction depends on which flow clears first. No index provider has published an effective date, so this date is a placeholder for the earliest plausible flow. confidence: low · source | structure | SPCXH | ↕ | -8.0…+12.0% | — | queue below |
| 08-10 | TSMC July 2026 monthly revenue (date approximate, ~10th of month) TSMC monthly sales are the highest-frequency public read on AI accelerator and advanced-packaging throughput - June sales drove a 68% y/y revenue surge - so the July figure is a direct sanity check on the demand narrative the hyperscaler prints will have set earlier in the window, feeding KLAC (WFE), MU (HBM attach) and NVDA (supply). confidence: low · source | ecosystem | TSMHKLACHMUHNVDA | ↕ | ±3.0% | ±0.5 | none |
Scenario bands estimate how far a scheduled event could plausibly move a name within a week, in both directions where the outcome is binary. They are research context for the book's decisions — the signal engine, not the calendar, decides trades.
Today's recommendations
0 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| META | Meta Platforms | 556.71 | SELL ALL | 556.71 | 620.00⚠ | 557.12 (+0.1%) | 549.03 (-1.4%) | 565.58 (+1.6%) | Exit the whole Meta position. Q2 revenue grew 28% to 8bn but earnings missed, free cash flow collapsed ~91% to and 2026 capex was guided up to ~$135bn - the market cut the stock 8% on the print and it has not recovered. The shares sit 10% below our stop for a ninth session, 12% under our cost, and below every moving average we track, while the model projects no recovery at any horizon out to 12 weeks. Valuation is only fair, so there is nothing cheap to wait for. | L2 fires both legs (decisive stop break -10.21% + dead 12wk: Est_12W 565.58 < 1.02x close 567.84). 2nd consecutive settled STRONG SELL - REDUCE (BreakdownDown_52W cv85 -> RallySell_BearTrend cv68, Sell_Rank 3). adj 63 sits below the 65 floor after the -5 RallySell_BearTrend|sell haircut, but L2 is an independent exit basis. MoS -0.92 > -3 so no valuation tier bump. 8th re-fire, repriced 539..71. Stop held at the broken 620.00 for monitor continuity until the exit fills. Analyst median PT noted and rejected - trade the signal. · news |
| KLAC | KLA Corporation | 182.82 | SELL 50% | 182.82 | 168.00 | 184.44 (+0.9%) | 187.56 (+2.6%) | 192.32 (+5.2%) | Halve our largest holding and keep the other half. KLA has now printed a top-ranked sell signal two sessions running, and the chart has broken down beneath its 20-, 50- and 100-day averages with only the 200-day still holding - the stock is 40% below its 52-week high. Set against that, the business itself is doing well: record fiscal Q4 revenue on AI-infrastructure and advanced-packaging demand, and Wall Street still rates it a Moderate Buy with an average target of (+23%). Intrinsic value says the opposite - the shares are richly priced. Selling half banks a solid gain while keeping a full stake in the recovery case. | 2 consecutive settled STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv76 Sell_Rank 1 = US-18 SATISFIED (J30C lone flip, J31C confirms); US-19 classes a stable SELL-REDUCE as a hard tick, immediately executable. adj 78 = highest in the book either side. G1 no protection (bearish signal, not a fresh breakout); G3 passes on its bearish-signal limb. G2 SUPPRESSES the valuation amplify - MoS -4.41 would bump but Est_12W 192.32 is 1.93x the 99.91 DCF anchor (unreliable), so no bump. Sized to the 50% tier not the engine's 88.52 per US-12/US-22 keep-core and all prior KLAC cards. ADR-0012 armed (T12_Progress 95.06, Gain_ATR 0.48, +4.02% over the 175.75 cost) but ZERO ticks - the profit-take contributes nothing; the trim rides on the stable REDUCE alone. Trail on the retained 500 stays 168.00, deliberately NOT raised to EMA200 171.19 - halving is already the de-risk, double-tightening into a 14.81 ATR invites a whipsaw. Re-arm on a 3rd bearish print or a close below 168.00. · news |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 200.75 | SELL 30% | 200.75 | 188.00 | 200.21 (-0.3%) | 196.94 (-1.9%) | 199.54 (-0.6%) | Take 30% off Nvidia and keep 70. The position has reached its 12-week price objective, and the model now projects essentially nothing further in any direction - flat to slightly negative at one week, four weeks and twelve weeks alike. The stock rose 2.9% on the session as Amazon and Microsoft raised capital spending, and the order book is enormous (~$1tn of Blackwell and Vera Rubin commitments through 2027), but Nvidia is still 18% below its June high and has lagged every chip peer this year, with renewed questions about circular financing around the reported $250bn OpenAI backstop. Banking part of a fully-realised target while keeping the majority for the next product cycle. | ADR-0012 profit-take: ARMED on T12_Progress 100.61 (close-vs-target, needs no, so NOT the GOOGL loss-artifact) + soft tick (c) dead forward (Est_12W 199.54 < 1.02x close 204.77). One soft tick -> profit_take_1 30%, never more. DE-ESCALATED from the pending 07-31 50% card per US-19: the hard leg (3 consecutive STRONG SELL - REDUCE + broken stop) dissolved into NO TRADE cv0 with the close back above the 188 stop, so US-17 strips the signal-sell basis and only the profit-take survives. Tick (b) EXPLICITLY DECLINED - conviction is the sell case dissolving, not position deterioration. Tick (d) needs a 2nd consecutive NO TRADE; this is the first. MoS -2.07 > -3, no tier bump. Est_12W exceeds the 163.98 DCF anchor - annotated, not modified. SHARED WITH ussemicon - EXECUTE ONCE (L7). Retained 70 keep the 188.00 stop. · news |
| GOOGL | Alphabet, Inc.- Class A | 356.13 | HOLD | 356.13 | 329.00 | 357.98 (+0.5%) | 363.80 (+2.2%) | 385.49 (+8.2%) | Hold Alphabet and raise the stop to The stock jumped 6.7% - the biggest move in the book - as investors rotated out of the chip complex and back into a beaten-down megacap, reclaiming its 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day averages in a single session. The model's sell flag appeared for the first time tonight, but a single flip on the day a stock breaks out in every direction is not a reason to sell; the 12-week view remains 8% higher. Cloud revenue grew 82% to 8bn with a $514bn backlog. | STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv73 Sell_Rank 2 NOT FIRED: a LONE flip out of 3 consecutive NO TRADE cv0, and US-18 requires a 2nd consecutive settled print or a close below invalidation - neither holds. Firing here would be the NBIS trim error in textbook form. Forward alive at every horizon (1wk +0.5%, 4wk +2.2%, 12wk +8.25%). ADR-0012 armed (T12_Progress 92.38) but zero ticks - tick (c) alive by a wide margin (385.49 vs the 363.25 threshold) - so trail-raise, not trim. Overlay '<345' override now HEALED, cleared by +3.2%. Stop 319..00 (model Stop_Price 329.02). RE-ARM on a settled close below 329.00 or a 2nd consecutive bearish print. · news |
| LLY | Eli Lilly & Co | 1148.84 | HOLD | 1148.84 | 1155.71⚠ | 1158.88 (+0.9%) | 1144.31 (-0.4%) | 1187.10 (+3.3%) | Hold Lilly into its Q2 report on 5 August. The shares slipped 0.5% and sit a fraction below our trailing stop - a marginal breach, not a decisive break - and the signal has been quietly weakening for four sessions. With earnings two trading days away and consensus looking for 30% revenue growth (Goldman keeps a Buy and a target), the disciplined move is to hold through the event rather than sell into it on a fractional stop touch. | Trail 1155.71 STANDS - a trail is never lowered, and the model Stop_Price 1076.75 prints below it; it will keep flagging on the monitor, correctly. Breach 0.59% = MARGINAL, 2nd consecutive session (same test that correctly held KLAC at -0.47% on 07-30). 7th consecutive FailedBreakdown_Up_20D but conviction DECAYING -> (-23 over 4 sessions; EOD-over-EOD -11, inside the -20 tick) - flagged as a deteriorating signal even without a label change. Armed (T12_Progress 96.78), tick (c) alive but THIN (1187.10 vs the 1171.82 threshold, +1.3% headroom). Catalyst-aware HOLD per the trim-discipline gates: Q2 08-05 BMO is inside 5 sessions, so trim only on a confirmed lower-high or a decisive break. Lost EMA20 1176.33; holds EMA50 1138.13 / EMA100 1085.51 / EMA200 1018.90. ACTION THRESHOLD: a DECISIVE close below 1120.00, or a post-earnings breakdown. · news |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | 823.03 | HOLD | 823.03 | 770.00 | 823.22 (+0.0%) | 913.15 (+10.9%) | 1064.94 (+29.4%) | Hold Micron. The stock gave back 5.9%, roughly a third of Thursday's 18% surge, but it remains comfortably above our stop and above its 100-day average, and the 12-week view is still nearly 30% higher. The model has no active signal either way, which on its own is never a reason to sell. | -5.90% to 823.03, back to -4.24% under the 859.49 cost, but +6.9% above the raised 770.00 stop and above EMA100 772.72; below EMA20 907.41 / EMA50 892.61. NO TRADE cv0 is never a dispose basis (US-17). NOT armed (T12_Progress 77.28, no PROFIT_ARMED flag). The 07-30 trim stays WITHDRAWN and survives its first real test - nothing re-arms. 12wk band [459.70-1795.81] = 3.9x wide, near-uninformative (systemic 4). AMD Q2 on 08-04 carries an HBM read-through. Overlay invalidation (HBM pricing cracks / decisive stop break) UNTRIGGERED. Stop 770.00 stands. |
| NBIS | Nebius Group, N.V. | 190.41 | HOLD | 190.41 | 153.00 | 198.91 (+4.5%) | 215.11 (+13.0%) | 300.44 (+57.8%) | Hold Nebius. Up another 1.1%, extending the recovery from last week's washout, and now back above both its 100- and 200-day averages. Still 10% under our cost, but the 12-week view is materially higher and there is no active sell signal. | +1.05% to 190.41, -10.01% under the 211.60 cost. NO TRADE cv0 (US-17). Holds EMA100 186.57 and EMA200 154.29; below EMA20 198.16 / EMA50 204.78. NOT armed (T12_Progress 63.38). 12wk 300.44 = +57.8% but the band [112.69-584.41] is 5.2x wide - near-uninformative (systemic 4); do not size off it. No confirmed Meta contract impairment -> the overlay override remains UNTRIGGERED. Q2 ~08-12. Stop 153.00 stands. |
| OKTA | Okta Inc. | 141.93 | HOLD | 141.93 | 132.00 | 143.04 (+0.8%) | 146.88 (+3.5%) | 160.14 (+12.8%) | Hold Okta and raise the stop to This is the one holding whose signal is actually strengthening - conviction improved for a third straight session and the position is now back above our cost, with the model pointing roughly 13% higher over twelve weeks. Raising the stop locks in the recovery without crowding the trade. | +1.08% to 141.93, +1.52% over the 139.80 cost. 3rd consecutive FailedBreakdown_Up_20D with conviction improving -> 64 - the only strengthening held name in the book. Forward +0.8% / +3.5% / +12.8%. NOT armed (T12_Progress 88.63 < 90, Gain_ATR 0.33 << 3.0). Model Stop_Price 137.76 is only 0.64 ATR below the close - too tight to adopt; 132.00 sits ~1.5 ATR below and under EMA20 138.88. Well clear of EMA50 126.93. Stop 130..00. |
| SPCX | Space Exploration Tech Corp | — | HOLD | — | 135.00 | n/a | n/a | n/a | Hold SpaceX on the manual stop, but be aware this is the most event-loaded name in the book and both catalysts land within days. The company reports its first-ever quarterly results as a public company on 4 August, with no reporting history and no established guidance to anchor expectations. Two trading days later, on 6 August, roughly 911.5m shares - about $116bn worth - become eligible to trade in one of the largest lock-up expirations in recent market history. Morgan Stanley argues the fundamentals are largely unchanged and the pressure creates an entry point; we are not adding into it. | Private/unquoted, permanently absent from the scan - muted on signals (no action, conviction, entry or targets synthesised), news-assessed every run per the edge-case rule. Maiden Q2 08-04 AMC (8bn revenue, ~-EPS expected); stock ~47% off its post-IPO high and below the Jun-12 offer price. Lock-up 08-06 staggered: ~20% post-earnings, then ~7% tranches ~08-21 and ~09-10 - insiders could sell up to ~44% by early September. Musk + core insiders locked to mid-2027. Float expansion opens Nasdaq-100 / Russell index-eligibility mechanics from 08-07, no confirmed effective date. Horizon bands: earnings +/-18%, lock-up -25%/+10%. A scan Close < 135.00 AUTO-UNMUTES and becomes a full-exit trigger. · news |
| AMZN | Amazon.com Inc | 271.58 | NO ACTION | 258.34 | 215.89 | 273.32 (+5.8%) | 278.00 (+7.6%) | 285.17 (+10.4%) | Not buying Amazon despite the strongest buy signal in the book. Ledgered so the counterfactual grader prices what declining it cost or saved. | Top-ranked STRONG BUY cv80 Buy_Rank 1 on BreakoutUp_20D, TRIPLE-BLOCKED: (1) cell bias -7 plus val_adj -10 (MoS -1.93) -> adj 63, below the 65 floor; (2) Quality_Pass FALSE (F=6) blocks new entries outright; (3) EXTENDED - Entry_Distance_ATR -0.97 with the close 271.58 sitting +5.1% past the 258.34 model entry after a one-session jump from 235.50 (AVOID cv78 the night before). Chasing this is the exact L6/US-9 failure mode. Not queued: the entry is 5% below the market and the quality gate would still block a fill. |
| VIST | Vista Energy, S.A.B. de | 70.45 | BUY-STOP | 71.23 | 61.99 | 70.72 (-0.7%) | 71.44 (+0.3%) | 74.86 (+5.1%) | Not queuing Vista Energy tonight, but flagging it as the best new-entry prospect this book has produced in weeks. It is the first candidate in a long stretch that is both attractively valued on intrinsic worth and passes our quality screen, and it trades above every moving average we track. The anticipation signal appeared only tonight, and our rule requires it to persist before we commit capital. | BUY - ANTICIPATE cv76, val_adj +2 (UNDERVALUED, MoS +0.08, Quality_Pass True, F=7, DCF 86.44 vs close 70.45) -> adj 78, comfortably over the 55 anticipate floor. INELIGIBLE on ADR-0012's >=2-of-3 snapshot test: printed BUY - ANTICIPATE in exactly (J29C/J30C were WATCH cv56 / cv50 on FailedBreakdown_Up_20D). Above EMA20 66.58 / EMA50 67.23 / EMA100 66.01 / EMA200 61.39; RSI 59.4, not extended. Directly relevant to the US-20 systemic finding - the first Quality_Pass-True buy source in weeks. RE-ARM: if it prints BUY - ANTICIPATE again on 08-03 it becomes slot-eligible and should be queued as a GTC buy-stop at the then-current Entry_Price, 0.5x normal new-BUY. |
Outcome & track record
How accurate the calls have been.
109 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.132 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
23 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.
Signal-type track record How each signal *type* has performed across ALL of this book's past decisions — not a per-stock note. 'bias' is the conviction nudge (+/-) applied to a fresh signal of that type; n = sample size, hit_1w = share that hit the 1-week target. Reliable cells earn a boost; weak ones a haircut.
How each signal type has performed across this book's past decisions (aggregate, not per-stock) — and the conviction nudge it earns.
- BreakoutUp_20D (buy): 6 past trades, 17% hit the 1-week target → -7 conviction nudge.
- BreakoutUp_52W (buy): 6 past trades, 40% hit the 1-week target → -2 conviction nudge.
- FailedBreakdown_Up_20D (buy): 7 past trades, 14% hit the 1-week target → -7 conviction nudge.
- FailedBreakdown_Up_20D (sell): 8 past trades, 63% hit the 1-week target → +2 conviction nudge.
- FailedBreakout_Down_20D (sell): 12 past trades, 60% hit the 1-week target → +2 conviction nudge.
- MomentumContinuation_Up (buy): 6 past trades, 0% hit the 1-week target → -10 conviction nudge.
- NoTrade (sell): 29 past trades, 44% hit the 1-week target → -1 conviction nudge.
- PullbackBuy_VWAP (buy): 22 past trades, 65% hit the 1-week target → +3 conviction nudge.
- RallySell_BearTrend (sell): 8 past trades, 25% hit the 1-week target → -5 conviction nudge.
Portfolio & signals
Every name we scanned, and where it stands.
| Ticker | Name | Close | Signal The chart pattern the engine detected on this name. Hover a signal for its one-line definition; click it for the full setup/trigger rules, the trade box it produces, and the newsletter issue that teaches the underlying concept. | Action | Conv | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KLACH | KLA Corporation | 182.82 | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | STRONG SELL - REDUCE | 76 | 184.44 (+0.9%) | n/a | 192.32 (+5.2%) |
| GOOGLH | Alphabet, Inc.- Class A | 356.13 | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | STRONG SELL - REDUCE | 73 | 357.98 (+0.5%) | n/a | 385.49 (+8.2%) |
| METAH | Meta Platforms | 556.71 | RallySell_BearTrend | STRONG SELL - REDUCE | 68 | 557.12 (+0.1%) | n/a | 565.58 (+1.6%) |
| OKTAH | Okta Inc. | 141.93 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | HOLD | 64 | 143.04 (+0.8%) | 154.85 (+9.1%) | 160.14 (+12.8%) |
| LLYH | Eli Lilly & Co | 1148.84 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | HOLD | 52 | 1158.88 (+0.9%) | 1220.93 (+6.3%) | 1187.10 (+3.3%) |
| MUH | Micron Technology, Inc. | 823.03 | NoTrade | NO TRADE | 0 | 823.22 (+0.0%) | n/a | 1064.94 (+29.4%) |
| NBISH | Nebius Group, N.V. | 190.41 | NoTrade | NO TRADE | 0 | 198.91 (+4.5%) | n/a | 300.44 (+57.8%) |
| NVDAH | NVIDIA Corporation | 200.75 | NoTrade | NO TRADE | 0 | 200.21 (-0.3%) | n/a | 199.54 (-0.6%) |
| AMZN | Amazon.com Inc | 271.58 | BreakoutUp_20D | STRONG BUY | 80 | 273.32 (+0.6%) | 343.24 (+26.4%) | 285.17 (+5.0%) |
| WDS | Woodside Energy Goup Ltd | 23.46 | AnticipationUp_VCP | BUY - ANTICIPATE | 78 | 23.55 (+0.4%) | 27.25 (+16.2%) | 26.50 (+13.0%) |
| AAOI | Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. | 94.32 | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | AVOID | 76 | 94.33 (+0.0%) | n/a | 140.99 (+49.5%) |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology | 187.56 | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | AVOID | 76 | 186.50 (-0.6%) | n/a | 263.91 (+40.7%) |
| TSLA | Tesla Inc | 311.21 | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | AVOID | 76 | 315.31 (+1.3%) | n/a | 325.56 (+4.6%) |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies Inc. | 123.06 | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | AVOID | 76 | 121.87 (-1.0%) | n/a | 122.81 (-0.2%) |
| VIST | Vista Energy, S.A.B. de | 70.45 | AnticipationUp_VCP | BUY - ANTICIPATE | 76 | 70.72 (+0.4%) | 89.71 (+27.3%) | 74.86 (+6.3%) |
| SNOW | Snowflake Inc. | 293.28 | MomentumContinuation_Up | BUY | 70 | 294.27 (+0.3%) | 392.53 (+33.8%) | 325.48 (+11.0%) |
| AMKR | Amkor Technology | 49.87 | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | AVOID | 70 | 51.68 (+3.6%) | n/a | 58.98 (+18.3%) |
| GLW | Corning Incorporated | 138.25 | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | AVOID | 70 | 139.78 (+1.1%) | n/a | 139.19 (+0.7%) |
| CRM | SalesForce Inc | 184.02 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | BUY | 69 | 185.47 (+0.8%) | 202.83 (+10.2%) | 182.96 (-0.6%) |
| PL | Plant Labs PBC | 20.48 | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | AVOID | 69 | 20.95 (+2.3%) | n/a | 20.71 (+1.1%) |
| RKLB | Rocket Lab Corporation | 64.95 | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | AVOID | 69 | 65.97 (+1.6%) | n/a | 82.89 (+27.6%) |
| DDOG | Datadog Inc. | 267.97 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | BUY | 68 | 269.92 (+0.7%) | 294.95 (+10.1%) | 280.35 (+4.6%) |
| NET | Cloudflare, Inc. | 278.98 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | BUY | 68 | 279.51 (+0.2%) | 310.73 (+11.4%) | 312.11 (+11.9%) |
| ARM | Arm Holdings plc | 239.69 | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | AVOID | 68 | 239.35 (-0.1%) | n/a | 277.73 (+15.9%) |
| CRWV | CoreWeave, Inc. | 71.77 | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | AVOID | 68 | 71.92 (+0.2%) | n/a | 74.10 (+3.2%) |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corp | 464.72 | ReversalDown_Overbought | AVOID | 66 | 467.53 (+0.6%) | 402.19 (-13.5%) | 494.24 (+6.4%) |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc | 389.28 | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | AVOID | 64 | 390.45 (+0.3%) | n/a | 406.71 (+4.5%) |
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase & Co. | 351.79 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | WATCH | 62 | 351.40 (-0.1%) | 366.24 (+4.1%) | 359.49 (+2.2%) |
| PG | The Procter & Gamble Company | 144.49 | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | AVOID | 62 | 145.71 (+0.8%) | n/a | 152.61 (+5.6%) |
| AAPL | Apple | 308.91 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | WATCH | 60 | 309.67 (+0.2%) | 335.04 (+8.5%) | 321.34 (+4.0%) |
| QCOM | Qualcomm Incorporated | 147.61 | ReversalUp_Oversold | WATCH | 58 | 148.19 (+0.4%) | 171.59 (+16.2%) | 151.71 (+2.8%) |
| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | 405.37 | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | AVOID | 57 | 405.73 (+0.1%) | n/a | 501.60 (+23.7%) |
| BAC | Bank of America | 61.95 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | WATCH | 54 | 61.99 (+0.1%) | 64.05 (+3.4%) | 62.98 (+1.7%) |
| LMT | Lockheed Martin Corporation | 582.74 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | WATCH | 54 | 589.22 (+1.1%) | 618.46 (+6.1%) | 622.82 (+6.9%) |
| ACN | Accenture PLC | 165.92 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | WATCH | 47 | 168.02 (+1.3%) | 185.03 (+11.5%) | 180.34 (+8.7%) |
| NFLX | Netflix, Inc | 71.71 | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | AVOID | 45 | 72.60 (+1.2%) | n/a | 76.77 (+7.1%) |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc | 476.15 | NoTrade | NO TRADE | 0 | 480.15 (+0.8%) | n/a | 538.41 (+13.1%) |
| ASML | ASML Holding NV | 1629.00 | NoTrade | NO TRADE | 0 | 1639.12 (+0.6%) | n/a | 1730.12 (+6.2%) |
| ASX | ASE Technology Holding | 35.17 | NoTrade | NO TRADE | 0 | 35.48 (+0.9%) | n/a | 39.79 (+13.1%) |
| COHR | Coherent Corp. | 262.89 | NoTrade | NO TRADE | 0 | 262.60 (-0.1%) | n/a | 298.09 (+13.4%) |
| GEV | GE Vernova Inc | 990.29 | NoTrade | NO TRADE | 0 | 1002.01 (+1.2%) | n/a | 1040.12 (+5.0%) |
| LRCX | Lam Research Corp | 293.02 | NoTrade | NO TRADE | 0 | 295.68 (+0.9%) | n/a | 317.14 (+8.2%) |
| INTC | Intel Corporation | 90.20 | NoTrade | NO TRADE | 0 | 91.98 (+2.0%) | n/a | 105.15 (+16.6%) |
| SAP | SAP AE | 183.62 | NoTrade | NO TRADE | 0 | 184.39 (+0.4%) | n/a | 177.11 (-3.5%) |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing C | 404.25 | NoTrade | NO TRADE | 0 | 407.54 (+0.8%) | n/a | 430.90 (+6.6%) |
| GS | The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. | 1018.38 | NoTrade | NO TRADE | 0 | 1015.31 (-0.3%) | n/a | 1077.03 (+5.8%) |
| MS | Morgan Stanley Corp | 210.42 | NoTrade | NO TRADE | 0 | 211.67 (+0.6%) | n/a | 216.97 (+3.1%) |
| MRNA | Moderna, Inc. | 54.82 | NoTrade | NO TRADE | 0 | 55.66 (+1.5%) | n/a | 58.20 (+6.2%) |
| PFE | Pfizer Inc. | 25.01 | NoTrade | NO TRADE | 0 | 25.11 (+0.4%) | n/a | 26.14 (+4.5%) |
| LITE | Lumentum Holdings | 713.94 | NoTrade | NO TRADE | 0 | 712.63 (-0.2%) | n/a | 799.77 (+12.0%) |
| SNDK | Sandisk Corporation | 1214.83 | NoTrade | NO TRADE | 0 | 1270.29 (+4.6%) | n/a | 1008.67 (-17.0%) |
Archive
Earlier end-of-day records.
- 1 August 2026 0 acquire / 3 dispose ACQUIRE NO ACTION (0 of <=3) - 14th consecutive session with no admissible new BUY (US-20): AMZN adj 63 (quality-gate F=6 + extended -0.97 ATR, +5.1% past entry), SNOW adj 52 (cell -10, F=5), CRM adj 52 (F=7 but below EMA200), DDOG adj 51 (F=5), NET adj 51 (F=3, MoS -940). Zero PullbackBuy_VWAP candidates printed. ANTICIPATE 0 of <=1 - WDS (adj 74, F=4) and VIST (adj 78, UNDERVALUED, Quality_Pass True) both printed BUY - ANTICIPATE for the first time but each in only 1 of the last 3 snapshots (rule needs >=2). | DISPOSE 3 of <=3: META full exit 60 @ ~556.71 - L2 both legs, 9th session -10.21% below stop + dead 12wk, 2nd consecutive STRONG SELL - REDUCE, 8th re-fire; KLAC 50% trim @ ~182.82 - 2nd consecutive STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv76 Sell_Rank 1, adj 78 (highest in the book), US-18 satisfied, G2 suppresses the valuation amplify, keep-core 500; NVDA 30% trim @ ~200.75 - ADR-0012 armed (T12_Progress 100.61) + soft tick (c) dead forward, de-escalated from the pending 50%, execute ONCE vs ussemicon. | The session rotated out of the chip complex into the megacap laggard: GOOGL +6.73% to 356.13 (reclaimed all four EMAs, overlay healed), META +3.28%, NVDA +2.93%, against MU -5.90% giving back a third of the +18.4% bounce. | : buys sells free ->.
- 31 July 2026 0 acquire / 2 dispose ACQUIRE NO ACTION (0 of <=3) - all 4 bullish candidates quality-gate-blocked, 13th consecutive session with no admissible new BUY (US-20): WDS adj 79 (F=4), DDOG adj 64 (F=5), AMKR adj 64 (F=4), SNOW adj 50 (F=5, extended RSI 74). ANTICIPATE 0 (zero BUY - ANTICIPATE rows). | DISPOSE 2 of <=3: META full exit 60 @ ~539.03 - BreakdownDown_52W cv85 Sell_Rank 1, L2 fires both legs, Q2 EPS miss + capex to -145bn + FCF, 7th re-fire; NVDA trim 50 @ ~195.04 - 3rd consecutive STRONG SELL - REDUCE + broken stop + dead forward, keep 50, stop reset 188.00, execute ONCE vs ussemicon. | The session was a violent AI-complex REVERSAL (MU +18.4%, NBIS +27.1%, SNDK +26%, CRWV +21.5%, LRCX +18%) on a hedge-fund unwind completing + a Samsung tightening-supply warning + strong Microsoft earnings - which withdrew the MU trim and vindicated the 07-30 KLAC/NBIS withdrawals. | : buys sells free ->.
- 29 July 2026 1 acquire / 3 dispose 1 ACQUIRE (QUEUED AAPL gtc_stop @341.50, adj 73) | DISPOSE fired: KLAC -500 (50%, keep 500), MU -50 (50%, keep 50), META exit 60 | DEFERRED by cap: NBIS -150 (50%), NVDA -50 (50%) | WITHDRAWN: GOOGL full exit (6 sessions refuted - US-17/US-22, stale overlay) + AAPL @316.32 limit (US-8 family flip) | HOLD LLY (trail raised 1155.71), OKTA (124), SPCX (muted 135), GOOGL (new stop 319.00)
- 28 July 2026 1 acquire / 3 dispose 1 ACQUIRE (QUEUED AAPL @316.32, adj 93) | DISPOSE fired: KLAC -300 (30%), META exit 60, GOOGL exit 100 | DEFERRED by cap: NVDA -30, MU -30 | HOLD NBIS through Q2 (marginal break, +58% fwd), LLY trail 1134 | BOOK UNRECONCILED - 07-25 cards unexecuted 5th session
- 25 July 2026 1 acquire / 3 dispose 1 ACQUIRE (QUEUED AAPL @308.38, deep limit) | DISPOSE 3: GOOGL exit 100, META exit 60, NVDA -30 | HOLD NBIS through -15% crash (marginal break, +65.8% fwd), ride KLAC/MU pullbacks, LLY trail 1127
- 24 July 2026 0 acquire / 3 dispose NO ACQUIRE (8th consecutive) | DISPOSE 3: META exit 60, GOOGL exit 100, NVDA -30 | KLAC trail raised 210
- 23 July 2026 0 acquire / 1 dispose NO ACQUIRE (7th consecutive) | DISPOSE 1: NVDA -30 | GOOGL hold-at-risk 345 post-earnings settle
- 22 July 2026 0 acquire / 2 dispose NO ACQUIRE (OKTA adj 64 -- ONE point short of the floor; the cleanest, non-extended, quality-PASSING PullbackBuy in a month, killed by a maxed valuation haircut. DDOG/BAC/SNOW quality-blocked and/or sub-floor. US-20 6th straight session). NO ANTICIPATE (label absent from all 4 snapshots). DISPOSE: GLW 150/150 FULL EXIT @~162.41 -- take the +6.1% melt-up bounce on an exit outstanding five sessions; the signal escalated to an active STRONG SELL-REDUCE at Sell_Rank 1 on a -18.6% loser trading below EMA10/EMA100. NVDA 30/100 @~207.29 -- profit_take_1, at target with a flat forward on every horizon; keep 70, trail 200.50. Holds, all with raised trails: KLAC 205 (breach resolved, hold through 07-23 Q4), GOOGL 345 unchanged (hold through tonight's Q2 print), MU 880 (now risk-free after +12.2%), NBIS 190 (after +18.8%, forward +49%), LLY 1120, META 620, SPCX muted 135. The session's shape: cut the one broken name into a melt-up, bank a third of a winner whose forward has gone flat at target, hold every genuine trend position through the 07-22/23 earnings pair on raised stops, and carry of into the event-dense 07--31 window. Net +raised.
- 21 July 2026 0 acquire / 3 dispose NO ACQUIRE (JPM adj69 top near-miss, clean non-extended PullbackBuy Rank1 but quality-gate-killed F=2; OKTA/MS sub-floor -- US-20 5th straight session). NO ANTICIPATE (AAPL buy-stop withdrawn, never triggered). DISPOSE: GLW 150/150 FULL EXIT @~153.10 (stable bearish x4 + decisive break + fell on an up day = idiosyncratic crack, -23% loser); SNDK 8/15 @~1390.95 (profit_take_2 armed 115.9% + dead 12wk + 4x NO TRADE; keep 7 trail 1300); NVDA 30/100 @~203.28 (profit_take_1 armed 99% + dead forward; keep 70 trail 197). Holds: KLAC marginal breach -> hold through 07-23 earnings, decisive line reset 200.51; GOOGL 345 catalyst-hold 07-22 (intraday sell faded again); META stop SET 620 (armed flag is an artifact on a +1.7% 2-day-old position); MU breach resolved 855; NBIS 152 fwd +26.1%; LLY 1106; SPCX muted 135. A pure de-risking session on a relief bounce: cut the one idiosyncratic loser, bank partials on two armed winners at target, hold everything else through the 07-22/23 catalysts, and carry of into the event-dense 07--31 window. Net +raised.
- 18 July 2026 1 acquire / 3 dispose NO ACQUIRE (buy pool 4/5 PullbackBuy_VWAP but all quality-gate-killed Q_Pass False; SNOW adj69 top near-miss). ANTICIPATE: AAPL QUEUED-ANTICIPATE buy-stop @335.48 0.25x (cv73, relative strength, expires 07-22). DISPOSE: GLW 150/150 FULL EXIT @~154.61 (stable bearish + decisive 165 break + downgrade, -22% loser); SNDK 8/15 @~1354.82 (profit_take_2 armed 117% + dead 12wk + 2x NO-TRADE; keep 7 trail 1300); NVDA 30/100 @~202.81 (profit_take_1 armed 100% + dead forward, US-19 first-fire; keep 70 trail 197). NBIS 07-17 trim WITHDRAWN (bounced +3.5% to NO-TRADE close, +29.6% fwd, above EMA200 -> hold 300 stop 152). Holds: GOOGL stop 345 catalyst-hold 07-22; KLAC trail 210.15 catalyst-hold 07-23; LLY 1106; MU 855 #1 watch; SPCX muted 135. Washout stabilizing -> cut the loser fully, bank two rolling winners with dead 12wk forwards, hold the rest through the 07-22/23 catalyst cluster, plant a tiny strength-gated anticipate. Net + cash raised.
- 17 July 2026 1 acquire / 4 dispose NO ACQUIRE (buy pool all chase/extended GROWTH_PRICED_IN; MS adj75 quality-killed). ANTICIPATE: AAPL QUEUED-ANTICIPATE buy-stop @329.58 0.25x (3/3 prints cv73, relative strength, expires 07-22). DISPOSE: NBIS 150/300 @~171.77 (decisive 185 break, halve per keep-core+G2, stop 152); GLW 150/150 FULL EXIT @~158.39 (2nd decisive 165 break + sustained bearish + downgrade, -20% loser); SNDK 8/15 @~1411 (profit_take_2 armed 112%+trail-break+dead-fwd; keep 7 trail 1300); NVDA 30/100 @~207.40 (carried re-affirm profit-take, US-19 30%, keep 70 trail 197.06). AMD 07-16 buy WITHDRAWN (WATCH cv46, -7.1%). Holds: GOOGL stop 345 catalyst-hold thru 07-22; KLAC trail 210.15; LLY 1106; MU 855 (#1 watch marginal breach); SPCX muted 135. 2nd-day AI-hardware washout -> cut the loser fully, halve the decisively-broken NBIS, bank two rolling-over winners, plant only a tiny strength-gated anticipate. Net + cash raised.
- 16 July 2026 1 acquire / 3 dispose ACQUIRE: AMD BUY 18 @539.28 small starter (sole fusion-clearing buy; PullbackBuy cv71->adj66, quality-pass; not extended; 12wk +20%). DISPOSE: GLW 75/150 @~174.41 (decisive stop break + double-downgrade-to-sell, halve; reset stop 165); NVDA 30/100 @~212.50 (profit-take armed+RSI_DIV+dead-fwd; US-19 30%; keep 70); SNDK 5/15 @~1615 (profit-take armed 116%+dead-fwd+repeated NO-TRADE; re-affirm re-priced; keep 10). DELL 07-15 queue WITHDRAWN (NO TRADE cv0, -9.8%). GOOGL/KLAC/LLY/MU/NBIS holds (armed-not-fired trail-raises; MU #1 watch first bearish label, NBIS #2 watch). SPCX muted (stop 135). Broad AI-hardware risk-off -> bank gains + halve the downgraded loser, one small starter.
- 15 July 2026 1 acquire / 1 dispose ACQUIRE: DELL QUEUED buy-limit @423.60 (, sole fusion-clearing buy; extended so queue). DISPOSE: SNDK 5@~1757.82 (ADR-0012 profit-take, armed 116%+dead-forward+repeated NO-TRADE; US-19 first-fire 30%; keep 10). NBIS #1 WATCH held (decisive 200-stop break but +19% forward + overlay keep-core; stop reset 185). NVDA 07-14 trim WITHDRAWN (US-19, recovered +4.1%). GOOGL/KLAC/LLY/MU/GLW holds (armed-not-fired trail-raises; MU recovered). SPCX muted (stop 135).
- 14 July 2026 0 acquire / 2 dispose DISPOSE: NVDA 30@~203.53 + SNDK 5@~1673.97 (ADR-0012 profit-takes, armed+dead-forward; keep 70/10). ACQUIRE: NO ACTION (whole buy pool fails fusion; overlay de-risk into 07-14 CPI). GOOGL/KLAC/LLY/MU/NBIS/GLW holds (armed-not-fired trail-raises; MU marginal breach held per US-12). SPCX muted (lock-up concern; stop 135).
- 11 July 2026 0 acquire / 1 dispose DISPOSE: SNDK 5@~1915.92 (ADR-0012 profit-take armed+dead-fwd+failed-breakout, keep 10). ACQUIRE: NO ACTION (AMD adj57 L1-chase / LLY-ADD adj61 extended-into-CPI / SNOW adj69 quality-blocked). GOOGL STRONG SELL-REDUCE single-flip -> hold100 trail345 through 07-22 (confirm to trim). NVDA prior 50-sh reduce withdrawn -> hold100 trail196.50. KLAC/MU/LLY/NBIS/GLW holds (armed-not-fired trail-raises). SPCX muted (lock-up concern; manual stop 135).
- 10 July 2026 1 acquire / 2 dispose DISPOSE: NVDA 50@~202.78 (profit-take armed+dead-fwd+4xNO TRADE) + SNDK 5@~1858.27 (profit-take armed+failed-breakout). ACQUIRE: DELL QUEUED 61@416.78 (PullbackBuy cv88, extended->pullback limit). GOOGL 07-09 trim withdrawn->hold100 trail345. KLAC/MU/LLY/GLW/NBIS holds (armed-not-fired trail-raises). SPCX muted (late-July lock-up concern vs Nasdaq-100 inclusion; manual stop 135).
- 9 July 2026 0 acquire / 2 dispose DISPOSE: NVDA 88@~204.12 (strong-sell x2 + neg-12wk, L2) + GOOGL 30@~361.92 (fired profit-take, overlay-capped). ACQUIRE: NO ACTION (risk-off buy pool; DELL/NET/JPM near-misses rejected). LLY/SNOW/AMD 07-08 queues withdrawn. NBIS/KLAC/SNDK recovered - holds. SPCX muted (Aug lock-up concern, manual stop 135).
- 8 July 2026 3 acquire / 2 dispose DISPOSE: NVDA 88@196.93 (strong-sell x3 + neg-12wk) + GOOGL 30@367.03 (fired profit-take). ACQUIRE: LLY 15@1165.58 + SNOW 140@243.55 queued (exp 07-11) + AMD 14@~517 market. NET/DDOG/JPM quality-blocked. BAC anticipate quality-blocked. NBIS/KLAC/SNDK stop-breach holds. SPCX muted (Aug lock-up concern, manual stop 135).
- 7 July 2026 2 acquire / 2 dispose DISPOSE: NVDA 531@195.55 (strong-sell x4 + neg-12wk) + GOOGL 30@366.46 (fired profit-take). ACQUIRE: TSM 56@451.79 market + SNOW 140@242.58 queued (exp 07-09). AMD queue withdrawn. NBIS watch. SPCX muted (Aug lock-up concern).
- 3 July 2026 2 acquire / 3 dispose DISPOSE: KLAC 500@235.55 stop-break 50%; NVDA 400@194.83 + GOOGL 30@359.91 fired profit-takes. ACQUIRE: SNOW 95@266.58 + AMD 25@521.71 queued. Stops reset on MU/NBIS/GLW/SNDK/LLY.
- 1 July 2026 2 acquire / 0 dispose DISPOSE NO ACTION (no signal-sell; NVDA/GOOGL optional rotation). ACQUIRE: ASML now ~15@1989; QUEUE KLAC add@280, SNDK starter+queue@1979, GLW@>261..
- 30 June 2026 4 acquire / 1 dispose 4wk-max: EXIT bad-buy AVGO -> ADD the confirmed semi-equip winners KLAC(cv93)+MU(PullbackBuy+8)+new LRCX(cv93); QUEUE GLW pullback; NVDA/GOOGL exits stand down (signals normalized). Learnings L1-L8 applied.
- 26 June 2026 3 acquire / 2 dispose ROTATE: trim stop-broken dead money (NVDA 25% / GOOGL exit) -> ADD confirmed winners MU + GLW(queue) + new DELL; AMD disqualified by fusion