BreakdownDown_20D
20-day Donchian channel breakdown confirmed by close and volume
Setup — what must already be true
- ADX trend strength is one of Trending / Transitional (HK: Trending / Transitional / Ranging)
- Donchian channel position is one of Near Low / Below Channel
- EMA stack (5/10/20/50 alignment) is one of Bearish Full / Bearish Partial (HK: Bearish Full / Bearish Partial / Mixed)
- RSI regime is not Extreme Oversold
- Liquidity gate is Pass
Trigger — what fires the signal
- Donchian channel position is Below Channel
- Momentum trajectory (RSI + MACD direction) is one of Both Deteriorating / Mixed
- Volume vs 20-day average ≥ 1.2 (HK: 1.2, SG: 1.3)
Trade box & conviction bar
- Entry: sell stop at 0.1 ATR offset
- Stop: chandelier trail (2.5 ATR)
- Target: trailing
- Conviction: BUY-grade at ≥ 55, STRONG at ≥ 75
📰 From the newsletter
- Issue #7-2 · Listening for the Wind — Trend tools answer two questions: where price is moving and whether that movement has enough strength to matter.
Live track record for this signal
- US Main (sell): 13% hit the 1-week target (n=10)
- AI · US Tech (sell): 25% hit the 1-week target (n=4, building sample)
- AI · US Semiconductors (sell): 60% hit the 1-week target (n=7)
- AI · Berkshire Mirror (sell): 44% hit the 1-week target (n=9)
- Hong Kong Main (sell): 58% hit the 1-week target (n=43)
- Singapore Main (sell): 100% hit the 1-week target (n=3, building sample)
- Sector ETFs (sell): 33% hit the 1-week target (n=6)
See it live right now
- NVDA · NVIDIA Corporation in US Main — STRONG SELL - REDUCE at conviction 85 (chart with entry/stop/targets drawn)
- NVDA · NVIDIA Corporation in AI · US Semiconductors — STRONG SELL - REDUCE at conviction 85 (chart with entry/stop/targets drawn)
- NVDA · NVIDIA Corporation in AI · US Tech — STRONG SELL - REDUCE at conviction 85 (chart with entry/stop/targets drawn)
- 9988 · BABA-SW in Hong Kong Main — AVOID at conviction 81 (chart with entry/stop/targets drawn)
- 9988 · BABA-SW in AI · HK Tech — AVOID at conviction 81 (chart with entry/stop/targets drawn)
- 0992 · Lenovo Group Limited in AI · HK Semiconductors — AVOID at conviction 42 (chart with entry/stop/targets drawn)