Pillars, conviction & exits
Every scanned name gets one 0–100 conviction score built from three pillars; the score crosses family-specific bars to become an action; and held positions are watched by a tiered exit-warning ladder. This page is the whole spine.
1 · Three pillars → one score
Trend asks "which way is the tide", momentum asks "how fast", volatility asks "is the move orderly and confirmed by volume". The raw pillar points normalize to a 0–100 conviction score, then post-adjustments apply (volume confirmation, signal age, VWAP-extension caps, the book's own scorecard bias).
2 · Score → action (family-specific bars)
| Conviction band | Direction up | Direction down |
|---|---|---|
| ≥ min_strong | STRONG BUY | STRONG SELL |
| ≥ min_action | BUY | SELL |
| ≥ 40 | WATCH | HOLD |
| < 40 | NO ACTION | EXIT |
The bars move by family — counter-trend trades must clear more:
- reversal: action ≥ 70, strong ≥ 85
- failed breakout: action ≥ 65, strong ≥ 85
- failed breakdown: action ≥ 65, strong ≥ 85
- breakout: action ≥ 55, strong ≥ 75
- pullback: action ≥ 55, strong ≥ 75
- momentum continuation: action ≥ 55, strong ≥ 75
- mean reversion: action ≥ 55, strong ≥ 75
- continuation lite: action ≥ 55, strong ≥ 75
- oversold bounce: action ≥ 55, strong ≥ 75
- pullback vwap: action ≥ 55, strong ≥ 75
- rally sell bear: action ≥ 55, strong ≥ 75
- anticipation: action ≥ 55, strong ≥ 75
3 · The exit-warning ladder (held positions)
- Tier 1 RSI_DIV · CLIMAX_VOL diagnostic only — tightens the chandelier trail from 3.0 ATR down to 2.0 ATR
- Tier 2 AVWAP_BREAK actionable trim — close below the anchored VWAP for 2 bars
- Tier 3 EMA10_BREAK actionable full exit — close below EMA10 after an extended overbought run
- Tier 1 PROFIT_ARMED profit-take eligibility — arming alone never trims; a deterioration tick fires it
Early warnings tighten the trail rather than force a sale; only the later tiers turn into trims or exits. Profit-take arming is eligibility, never the trigger.
📰 From the newsletter
- Issue #7-5 · Regime First, Signals Second, Risk Always: A Technical Analysis Workflow — The technical track culminates in a workflow: identify regime, interpret the right signals, and size risk so that execution matches uncertainty.