US Main — Track record
Every elapsed decision is graded against what prices actually did — hit-rates and errors per signal family, plus the cost of the decisions this book chose not to take.
109 graded 0 pending
1W calibration -0.13 How far along the 1-week path a decision typically gets: the fraction of the decided move realized after one week, measured across this book's graded decisions. Feeds a bounded conviction adjustment back into future decisions.
Scorecard
Hit-rates per signal family.
| Signal family | Dir | n | Hit 1W | Hit 4W | Hit 12W | Med err 1W | Stop-first | Bias | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NoTrade | sell | 29 | 44% | 40% | — | — | 0% | -1 | ● active |
| PullbackBuy_VWAP | buy | 22 | 65% | 29% | — | -1.3% | 32% | +3 | ● active |
| FailedBreakout_Down_20D | sell | 12 | 60% | 40% | — | — | 0% | +2 | ● active |
| FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | sell | 8 | 63% | 100% | — | — | 0% | +2 | ● active |
| RallySell_BearTrend | sell | 8 | 25% | 0% | — | — | 0% | -5 | ● active |
| FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | buy | 7 | 14% | 14% | — | -13.1% | 71% | -7 | ● active |
| BreakoutUp_20D | buy | 6 | 17% | 0% | — | -11.3% | 67% | -7 | ● active |
| BreakoutUp_52W | buy | 6 | 40% | 0% | — | -22.4% | 67% | -2 | ● active |
| MomentumContinuation_Up | buy | 6 | 0% | 0% | — | -15.4% | 83% | -10 | ● active |
| NoSignal | sell | 2 | 100% | — | — | — | 0% | 0 | ○ building sample (2/5) |
| AnticipationUp_VCP | buy | 1 | 0% | — | — | -2.6% | 100% | 0 | ○ building sample (1/5) |
| BreakdownDown_52W | sell | 1 | — | — | — | — | 0% | 0 | ○ building sample (1/5) |
| PullbackBuy_VWAP | sell | 1 | 100% | 100% | — | — | 0% | 0 | ○ building sample (1/5) |
Counterfactuals Counterfactuals grade decisions that were NOT executed — expired queues, no-chase rules, untaken optional trims — against what the market then did. They are kept strictly separate from the calibration cells above.
What the decisions we didn't take would have done.
- No-chase queue (queued a pullback instead of chasing) — 13 cases , median would-have 1W move +2.1% → verdict: cost
- Optional trims not taken — 23 cases , median would-have 1W move -1.7% → verdict: cost
- Anticipate slot (pre-breakout buy-stop) — 3 cases , median would-have 1W move -0.7% → verdict: saved
Counterfactuals are advisory evidence for the book's learnings reviews — never blended into the calibration cells.