US Main — Track record
Every elapsed decision is graded against what prices actually did — hit-rates and errors per signal family, plus the cost of the decisions this book chose not to take.
351 graded 0 pending
1W calibration -0.31 How far along the 1-week path a decision typically gets: the fraction of the decided move realized after one week, measured across this book's graded decisions. Feeds a bounded conviction adjustment back into future decisions.
Scorecard
Hit-rates per signal family.
| Signal family | Dir | n | Hit 1W | Hit 4W | Hit 12W | Med err 1W | Stop-first | Bias | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NoTrade | sell | 88 | 30% | 32% | — | — | 0% | -4 | ● active |
| FailedBreakout_Down_20D | sell | 75 | 67% | 30% | — | — | 0% | +3 | ● active |
| PullbackBuy_VWAP | buy | 32 | 32% | 36% | — | -6.6% | 63% | -4 | ● active |
| FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | sell | 27 | 44% | 56% | — | — | 0% | -1 | ● active |
| RallySell_BearTrend | sell | 27 | 37% | 10% | — | — | 0% | -3 | ● active |
| FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | buy | 19 | 58% | 56% | — | -2.1% | 42% | +2 | ● active |
| AnticipationUp_VCP | buy | 15 | 93% | 87% | — | +0.8% | 7% | +9 | ● active |
| BreakoutUp_52W | buy | 13 | 50% | 39% | — | -5.2% | 54% | 0 | ● active |
| BreakdownDown_20D | sell | 10 | 13% | 0% | — | — | 0% | -8 | ● active |
| BreakoutUp_20D | buy | 8 | 25% | 0% | — | -10.5% | 63% | -5 | ● active |
| MomentumContinuation_Up | buy | 6 | 33% | 20% | — | -6.7% | 67% | -3 | ● active |
| NoSignal | sell | 6 | 33% | 67% | — | — | 0% | -3 | ● active |
| PullbackBuy_VWAP | sell | 6 | 67% | 83% | — | — | 0% | +3 | ● active |
| AnticipationUp_VCP | sell | 5 | 75% | 75% | — | — | 0% | +5 | ● active |
| BreakdownDown_52W | sell | 3 | 0% | 0% | — | — | 0% | 0 | ○ building sample (3/5) |
| ? | sell | 2 | 0% | 0% | — | — | 0% | 0 | ○ building sample (2/5) |
| ReversalDown_Overbought | sell | 2 | 50% | 100% | — | — | 0% | 0 | ○ building sample (2/5) |
| ReversalUp_Oversold | sell | 2 | 100% | 0% | — | — | 0% | 0 | ○ building sample (2/5) |
| BreakoutUp_52W | sell | 1 | 0% | 100% | — | — | 0% | 0 | ○ building sample (1/5) |
| MeanRevDown_UpperBand | sell | 1 | 100% | 100% | — | — | 0% | 0 | ○ building sample (1/5) |
| manual_stop_break | sell | 1 | 0% | 0% | — | — | 0% | 0 | ○ building sample (1/5) |
| muted_no_close | sell | 1 | 0% | 0% | — | — | 0% | 0 | ○ building sample (1/5) |
| muted_no_scan_row | sell | 1 | 0% | 0% | — | — | 0% | 0 | ○ building sample (1/5) |
Counterfactuals Counterfactuals grade decisions that were NOT executed — expired queues, no-chase rules, untaken optional trims — against what the market then did. They are kept strictly separate from the calibration cells above.
What the decisions we didn't take would have done.
- No-chase queue (queued a pullback instead of chasing) — 64 cases , median would-have 1W move +2.8% → verdict: cost
- Optional trims not taken — 246 cases , median would-have 1W move -0.7% → verdict: cost
- Anticipate slot (pre-breakout buy-stop) — 21 cases → verdict: n/a
Counterfactuals are advisory evidence for the book's learnings reviews — never blended into the calibration cells.