Hong Kong Main — Track record
Every elapsed decision is graded against what prices actually did — hit-rates and errors per signal family, plus the cost of the decisions this book chose not to take.
124 graded 1 pending
1W calibration -0.28 How far along the 1-week path a decision typically gets: the fraction of the decided move realized after one week, measured across this book's graded decisions. Feeds a bounded conviction adjustment back into future decisions.
Scorecard
Hit-rates per signal family.
| Signal family | Dir | n | Hit 1W | Hit 4W | Hit 12W | Med err 1W | Stop-first | Bias | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FailedBreakout_Down_20D | sell | 47 | 59% | 28% | — | — | 0% | +2 | ● active |
| BreakdownDown_20D | sell | 14 | 50% | 0% | — | — | 0% | 0 | ● active |
| RallySell_BearTrend | sell | 12 | 75% | 18% | — | — | 0% | +5 | ● active |
| FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | buy | 10 | 33% | 33% | — | -26.3% | 60% | -3 | ● active |
| BreakoutUp_20D | buy | 8 | 25% | 0% | — | -16.3% | 50% | -5 | ● active |
| PullbackBuy_VWAP | buy | 7 | 67% | 25% | — | -9.6% | 29% | +3 | ● active |
| MomentumContinuation_Up | buy | 5 | 0% | 0% | — | -32.2% | 100% | -10 | ● active |
| BreakdownDown_52W | sell | 3 | 0% | 0% | — | — | 0% | 0 | ○ building sample (3/5) |
| NoTrade | sell | 3 | 67% | 100% | — | — | 0% | 0 | ○ building sample (3/5) |
| BreakoutUp_52W | buy | 2 | 50% | 0% | — | -0.4% | 50% | 0 | ○ building sample (2/5) |
| MeanRevDown_UpperBand | sell | 2 | 0% | — | — | — | 0% | 0 | ○ building sample (2/5) |
| PullbackBuy_VWAP | sell | 2 | 50% | 50% | — | — | 0% | 0 | ○ building sample (2/5) |
| ReversalDown_Overbought | sell | 2 | — | — | — | — | 0% | 0 | ○ building sample (2/5) |
| ReversalUp_Oversold | buy | 2 | 0% | — | — | -22.2% | 100% | 0 | ○ building sample (2/5) |
| ReversalUp_Oversold | sell | 2 | 100% | 0% | — | — | 0% | 0 | ○ building sample (2/5) |
| AnticipationUp_VCP | sell | 1 | 0% | — | — | — | 0% | 0 | ○ building sample (1/5) |
| FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | sell | 1 | 100% | 100% | — | — | 0% | 0 | ○ building sample (1/5) |
| ReversalDown | sell | 1 | 0% | 100% | — | — | 0% | 0 | ○ building sample (1/5) |
Counterfactuals Counterfactuals grade decisions that were NOT executed — expired queues, no-chase rules, untaken optional trims — against what the market then did. They are kept strictly separate from the calibration cells above.
What the decisions we didn't take would have done.
- No-chase queue (queued a pullback instead of chasing) — 19 cases , median would-have 1W move +6.1% → verdict: cost
- Optional trims not taken — 23 cases , median would-have 1W move +2.8% → verdict: saved
Counterfactuals are advisory evidence for the book's learnings reviews — never blended into the calibration cells.