Hong Kong — End-of-Day Verdict
3 ACQUIRE (9618 buy-stop, 3690 queued limit, 0148 market) + 3 DISPOSE (7709 full, 2513 full, 3750 trim) - pending next open 2026-07-29
Total-Return Index 87.6 -12.4% since inception Performance ›
Event Horizon · next 10 trading days as of 2026-07-27
| Date | Event | Scope | Names | Dir | 1wk band | (ATR) | Stance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-28 | HK IPO lock-up release wave — Z.AI (ex-Knowledge Atlas) cornerstone tranche freed A record 12-month pipeline of locked-up HK IPO shares is unwinding; 2513's six-month cornerstone lock-up has already freed roughly 6% of shares outstanding into a name up >1,200% since listing, so any cornerstone distribution meets thin float and an extreme ATR. confidence: low · source | direct | 2513H | ↕ | ±20.0% | ±1.0 | tighten trail |
| 07-29 | FOMC rate decision (02:00 HKT 30 Jul) — bank NIM channel Consensus is a hold at 3.50-3.75%, but market-implied odds of a HIKE have tripled to ~35% under Chair Warsh; a hike lifts the HKMA base rate mechanically via the peg, widening HSBC/StanChart HK deposit spreads while raising credit-cost risk at CCB. ATR band shown on 2888. confidence: med · source | macro | 0005H2888H0939H | ↕ | ±3.5% | ±1.3 | hold through |
| 07-29 | FOMC rate decision — HKD peg / HIBOR channel into Link REIT The HKD peg forces the HKMA to track the Fed, so a hike surprise pushes HIBOR and REIT financing costs up and discount-rate-sensitive distribution yields down — the opposite sign to the bank names on the same print. ATR band on 0823. confidence: med · source | macro | 0823H | ↕ | ±3.5% | ±1.9 | tighten trail |
| 07-29 | SK Hynix Q2 2026 results 7709 is a 2x leveraged tracker of SK Hynix, so the print's reaction is doubled directly into the position; the Street models a record quarterly operating profit on HBM/DRAM, and the HBM capex and pricing commentary is the sector read-through into Hua Hong and SMIC. confidence: high · source | ecosystem | 7709H774713470981 | ↕ | ±14.0% | ±0.6 | tighten trail |
| 07-29 | Standard Chartered H1 2026 results Interim results plus the buyback/dividend decision land in the same session as the Fed; NII guidance under a possible hiking path and Asia credit-cost trends drive the reaction. confidence: high · source | direct | 2888H | ↕ | ±5.0% | ±1.8 | hold through |
| 07-29 | ASMPT Q2 2026 / interim results (date carried from prior run, not reconfirmed) Q2 revenue was guided to roughly +12% QoQ / +37% YoY off record Q1 bookings; advanced-packaging and TCB tool order intake for AI is the swing factor and ASMPT reacts with high beta to the book-to-bill line. confidence: med · source | direct | 0522H | ↕ | ±9.0% | ±1.1 | hold through |
| 07-30 | Samsung Electronics full Q2 2026 results (preliminary already out 7 Jul) Preliminary Q2 already printed a record operating profit and the stock still fell 7%, so the incremental information is the memory-division breakdown and the HBM/capex plan — the same demand signal that sets the tone for 7709 and the China foundries. confidence: med · source | ecosystem | 7709H774713470981 | ↕ | ±7.0% | ±0.3 | hold through |
| 07-30 | HKEX monthly futures & options expiry (HSI/HSCEI) Expiry-day EAS settlement pins index heavyweights into the close and releases them the next session, adding mechanical noise on top of the Fed and Samsung prints. ATR band on 0700. confidence: med · source | structure | 0700H0005H0939H0981H | ↕ | ±1.5% | ±0.3 | none |
| 07-30 | China Politburo H2 economic policy meeting (approximate date) The late-July Politburo sets the H2 stimulus and platform/AI policy tone; language on consumption support and tech self-reliance is the direct re-rating lever for the China internet, battery and domestic-AI names. ATR band on 0700. confidence: low · source | macro | 0700H3750H0939H2513H | ↕ | ±4.0% | ±0.9 | hold through |
| 07-31 | China NBS Manufacturing + Non-Manufacturing PMI (July) The official PMI is the first read on July domestic demand; a sub-50 manufacturing print revives the China-slowdown trade that compresses battery and bank multiples. ATR band on 0700. confidence: med · source | macro | 3750H0700H0939H | ↕ | ±2.5% | ±0.6 | hold through |
| 07-31 | Hong Kong Q2 2026 advance GDP estimate Domestic HK growth feeds retail-sales-linked rents at Link REIT and HK loan-demand assumptions at the two banks. ATR band on 0823. confidence: low · source | macro | 0823H0005H2888H | ↕ | ±2.0% | ±1.1 | none |
| 08-03 | Caixin/RatingDog China Manufacturing PMI (July) The private-survey cross-check on the official PMI; a divergence between the two is what actually moves China-exposed beta. ATR band on 0700. confidence: low · source | macro | 0700H3750H0939H | ↕ | ±2.0% | ±0.5 | none |
| 08-04 | HSBC H1 2026 interim results + second interim dividend decision The board meets 4 Aug to approve interim results and the second interim dividend; on a low-ATR name (~1.6% daily) the buyback size and NII guidance dominate, so even a modest surprise is a large ATR-relative move. confidence: high · source | direct | 0005H | ↕ | ±3.5% | ±2.2 | hold through |
| 08-06 | SMIC Q2 2026 results China's largest foundry prints Q2 utilisation, ASP and mature-node pricing plus Q3 guidance; domestic-substitution capex commentary is the direct driver and it lands in the same session as Hua Hong. confidence: high · source | direct | 0981H | ↕ | ±9.0% | ±1.1 | hold through |
| 08-06 | Hua Hong Semiconductor Q2 2026 results Hua Hong prints against its own Q2 revenue and 14-16% gross-margin guidance after a Q1 beat and raise; utilisation and ASP recovery on a ~12%-ATR name make the reaction large, and it shares the session with SMIC so the whole China-foundry complex re-rates together. confidence: high · source | direct | 1347H | ↕ | ±10.0% | ±0.8 | hold through |
| 08-07 | US Non-Farm Payrolls (July) The first labour print after the FOMC re-prices the hiking path and, via the peg, re-prices HIBOR — the same divergent transmission as the Fed decision (banks up on a hot print, REIT down). ATR band on 0823. confidence: med · source | macro | 0005H2888H0939H0823H | ↕ | ±2.5% | ±1.3 | hold through |
| 08-07 | China July trade data (exports / imports / balance) Export momentum and the semiconductor/battery import-export split are the demand proxy for CATL's overseas storage business and for China chip inventory. ATR band on 3750. confidence: low · source | macro | 3750H0700H0981H | ↕ | ±2.0% | ±0.5 | none |
| 08-10 | China July CPI / PPI (9 Aug falls on a Sunday — released on the Monday) Continued PPI deflation keeps pressure on China bank margins and battery pricing power, and constrains how much easing the Politburo signal can actually deliver. ATR band on 0939. confidence: low · source | macro | 0939H3750H0700H | ↕ | ±1.5% | ±0.7 | none |
| 08-10 | TSMC July monthly revenue (approximate — TSMC reports around the 10th) TSMC's monthly sales line is the highest-frequency read on AI/HPC wafer demand; June ran +68% YoY, so a July deceleration would be the first visible crack in the AI-capex narrative that supports ASMPT's tools and the foundry complex. ATR band on 0522. confidence: med · source | ecosystem | 0981H1347H0522H7709H | ↕ | ±3.0% | ±0.4 | hold through |
Scenario bands estimate how far a scheduled event could plausibly move a name within a week, in both directions where the outcome is binary. They are research context for the book's decisions — the signal engine, not the calendar, decides trades.
Today's recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
NO ACTION — nothing cleared the bar.
Outcome & track record
How accurate the calls have been.
124 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.283 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
21 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.
Signal-type track record How each signal *type* has performed across ALL of this book's past decisions — not a per-stock note. 'bias' is the conviction nudge (+/-) applied to a fresh signal of that type; n = sample size, hit_1w = share that hit the 1-week target. Reliable cells earn a boost; weak ones a haircut.
How each signal type has performed across this book's past decisions (aggregate, not per-stock) — and the conviction nudge it earns.
- BreakdownDown_20D (sell): 14 past trades, 50% hit the 1-week target → no conviction nudge.
- BreakoutUp_20D (buy): 8 past trades, 25% hit the 1-week target → -5 conviction nudge.
- FailedBreakdown_Up_20D (buy): 10 past trades, 33% hit the 1-week target → -3 conviction nudge.
- FailedBreakout_Down_20D (sell): 47 past trades, 59% hit the 1-week target → +2 conviction nudge.
- MomentumContinuation_Up (buy): 5 past trades, 0% hit the 1-week target → -10 conviction nudge.
- PullbackBuy_VWAP (buy): 7 past trades, 67% hit the 1-week target → +3 conviction nudge.
- RallySell_BearTrend (sell): 12 past trades, 75% hit the 1-week target → +5 conviction nudge.
Portfolio & signals
Every name we scanned, and where it stands.
| Ticker | Name | Close | Signal The chart pattern the engine detected on this name. Hover a signal for its one-line definition; click it for the full setup/trigger rules, the trade box it produces, and the newsletter issue that teaches the underlying concept. | Action | Conv | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7709H | XL2CSOPHYNIX | 38.02 | BreakdownDown_20D | STRONG SELL - REDUCE | 81 | 40.59 (+6.8%) | n/a | 41.98 (+10.4%) |
| 0700H | TENCENT | 447.20 | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | STRONG SELL - REDUCE | 73 | 444.91 (-0.5%) | n/a | 442.83 (-1.0%) |
| 0939H | CCB - H SHS | 9.13 | ReversalDown_Overbought | STRONG SELL - REDUCE | 71 | 9.15 (+0.2%) | n/a | 9.12 (-0.1%) |
| 3750H | CATL | 603.50 | RallySell_BearTrend | STRONG SELL - REDUCE | 65 | 599.97 (-0.6%) | n/a | 585.06 (-3.1%) |
| 0823H | LINK REIT | 39.26 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | HOLD | 63 | 39.23 (-0.1%) | 40.63 (+3.5%) | 38.98 (-0.7%) |
| 0981H | SMIC | 69.10 | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | AVOID | 55 | 70.04 (+1.4%) | n/a | 74.08 (+7.2%) |
| 2513H | KNOWLEDGE ATLAS | 1042.00 | RallySell_BearTrend | STRONG SELL - REDUCE | 55 | 1082.89 (+3.9%) | n/a | 1159.46 (+11.3%) |
| 2888H | STANCHART | 222.80 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | HOLD | 53 | 223.73 (+0.4%) | 233.22 (+4.7%) | 224.85 (+0.9%) |
| 0522H | ASMPT | 139.50 | BreakdownDown_20D | AVOID | 50 | 149.52 (+7.2%) | 73.54 (-47.3%) | 160.89 (+15.3%) |
| 0005H | HSBC HDGS(USD0.50) HK O'SEAS | 162.00 | NoTrade | NO TRADE | 0 | 159.67 (-1.4%) | n/a | 167.19 (+3.2%) |
| 1347H | Hua Hong Semiconductor | 138.30 | NoTrade | NO TRADE | 0 | 144.41 (+4.4%) | n/a | 149.20 (+7.9%) |
| 9618 | JD-SW | 124.10 | BreakoutUp_20D | STRONG BUY | 91 | 123.54 (-0.5%) | 142.64 (+14.9%) | 132.64 (+6.9%) |
| 7747 | XL2CSOPSMSN | 61.12 | BreakdownDown_20D | AVOID | 86 | 64.97 (+6.3%) | -18.56 (-130.4%) | 78.11 (+27.8%) |
| 3690 | MEITUAN-W | 90.30 | PullbackBuy_VWAP | STRONG BUY | 76 | 89.67 (-0.7%) | 92.31 (+2.2%) | 84.18 (-6.8%) |
| 0100 | MINIMAX-W | 197.20 | BreakdownDown_52W | AVOID | 75 | 217.53 (+10.3%) | -1.95 (-101.0%) | 237.62 (+20.5%) |
| 0772 | CHINA LIT | 18.85 | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | AVOID | 73 | 18.70 (-0.8%) | n/a | 18.36 (-2.6%) |
| 0148 | KINGBOARD HLDG | 42.22 | OversoldBounce_Up | BUY | 70 | 45.67 (+8.2%) | 64.43 (+52.6%) | 48.53 (+14.9%) |
| 0857 | PETROCHINA CO LTD H SHS | 9.84 | PullbackBuy_VWAP | WATCH | 52 | 9.83 (-0.1%) | 10.21 (+3.8%) | 10.20 (+3.7%) |
| 1024 | KUAISHOU-W | 42.34 | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | AVOID | 50 | 42.04 (-0.7%) | n/a | 39.27 (-7.3%) |
| 2382 | Sunny Optical Technology | 58.05 | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | AVOID | 42 | 58.11 (+0.1%) | n/a | 60.59 (+4.4%) |
| 0941 | CHINA MOBILE | 83.25 | BreakoutUp_20D | WATCH | 31 | 83.54 (+0.3%) | 87.66 (+5.3%) | 83.16 (-0.1%) |
| 6869 | YOFC | 109.30 | BreakdownDown_20D | AVOID | 30 | 114.28 (+4.6%) | 24.75 (-77.4%) | 132.44 (+21.2%) |
| 0068 | MANYCORE TECH | 7.82 | NoTrade | NO TRADE | 0 | 8.54 (+9.2%) | n/a | 7.79 (-0.4%) |
| 0316 | OOIL | 151.30 | NoTrade | NO TRADE | 0 | 151.34 (+0.0%) | n/a | 163.69 (+8.2%) |
| 0388 | HKEX | 404.00 | NoTrade | NO TRADE | 0 | 405.29 (+0.3%) | n/a | 408.78 (+1.2%) |
| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 23.42 | NoTrade | NO TRADE | 0 | 23.11 (-1.3%) | n/a | 25.08 (+7.1%) |
| 1211 | BYD | 89.80 | NoTrade | NO TRADE | 0 | 88.54 (-1.4%) | n/a | 90.33 (+0.6%) |
| 1810 | XIAOMI CORP-W | 29.26 | NoTrade | NO TRADE | 0 | 29.18 (-0.3%) | n/a | 29.80 (+1.8%) |
| 2318 | Aac Technologies Holdings | 57.10 | NoTrade | NO TRADE | 0 | 56.71 (-0.7%) | n/a | 59.00 (+3.3%) |
| 9988 | BABA-SW | 112.00 | NoTrade | NO TRADE | 0 | 110.44 (-1.4%) | n/a | 108.24 (-3.4%) |
Archive
Earlier end-of-day records.
- 1 August 2026 0 acquire / 0 dispose 3 ACQUIRE (9618 buy-stop, 3690 queued limit, 0148 market) + 3 DISPOSE (7709 full, 2513 full, 3750 trim) - pending next open 2026-07-29
- 28 July 2026 3 acquire / 3 dispose 3 ACQUIRE (9618 buy-stop, 3690 queued limit, 0148 market) + 3 DISPOSE (7709 full, 2513 full, 3750 trim) - pending next open 2026-07-29
- 27 July 2026 2 acquire / 2 dispose 2 ACQUIRE (both QUEUED GTC-limit) + 2 DISPOSE (both MARKET) - pending next open 2026-07-28
- 24 July 2026 0 acquire / 2 dispose 2 DISPOSE (2513 full exit, 7709 50% trim), NO ACQUIRE - all pending next open
- 23 July 2026 2 acquire / 3 dispose 2 ACQUIRE + 3 DISPOSE (all pending next open). Sells free HK (HSBC reduce 1.68M + 2513 full exit 1.17M + 7709 half-trim 54k); buys need HK (0992 98k + 2318 80k) - strongly. 0 stop breaches; monitor clean; ALL SIX 07-22 cards unexecuted (3 disposes re-issued/repriced, 2 buy queues withdrawn, 0992 repriced to a live at-entry STRONG BUY). HK (unchanged - all pending next open).
- 22 July 2026 3 acquire / 3 dispose 3 DISPOSE + 3 ACQUIRE (queued). Sells free HK (HSBC reduce 1.65M + 2513 full exit 1.18M + 7709 half-trim 50k); buys need HKif all three pullback limits fill - strongly. 0 stop breaches; monitor clean; 2513's 07-21 pending exit never filled (re-issued). HK (unchanged - all pending next open).
- 21 July 2026 0 acquire / 1 dispose 1 DISPOSE (2513 FULL EXIT 1,000 @ ~1219.00 MKT - frees HKthe same broken name +36.9% higher than yesterday's recommendation) + NO ACQUISITIONS (no bullish actionable row in a scan that covered only tickers). 0 stop breaches among names that printed; unverifiable (degraded scan). Both 07-20 queues withdrawn (0857 cv52; 9618 absent). Trail-raises: 1347.00, 0522 146..50. HK -> HK.
- 20 July 2026 2 acquire / 1 dispose 1 DISPOSE (2513 FULL EXIT 1,000 @ ~890.50 MKT - frees HK) + 2 ACQUIRE QUEUED (0857 6,000 @9.10 adj 81; 9618 400 @107.15 adj 76 - ~HKboth conditional). 1 stop breach: 2513, exited in full. Four 07-17 queues withdrawn (0981, 7709, 0823, 1810). Strongly +HK; HK -> ~HK.
- 17 July 2026 2 acquire / 3 dispose 3 DISPOSE (2513 500 @~1107 MKT, 0981 1000 @70.45 LMT, 7709 900 @~44.80 MKT - frees ~HK) + 2 ACQUIRE QUEUED (0823 900 @37.09, 1810 1600 @24.49 - ~HK, both conditional). 3 stop breaches: 2513/7709 disposed 50%, 1347 held-and-trailed (12wk +5.8% alive -> L2 not met). 2888 + 0388 queues withdrawn. +HK; HK -> ~HK.
- 16 July 2026 1 acquire / 0 dispose 2 ACQUIRE (2888 buy-stop ADD + 0388 QUEUED) + NO DISPOSE; 2 stop-breaks (1347/7709) held-and-trailed; 2513 baselined.
- 15 July 2026 3 acquire / 0 dispose 3 ACQUIRE (0100 MiniMax 200@260.6 cv90; 6869 YOFC 500@156.4 cv72; 0388 HKEX QUEUED 100@377.14 cv73/adj78) need ~HK from HK -> ~HK after. NO DISPOSE — no SELL prints; 07-13 CCB/HSBC/7709 de-risks WITHDRAWN (signal reversed post-CPI). Hua Hong held through TSMC 07-16 (trail 162). Measured ~7% re-risk of.
- 13 July 2026 0 acquire / 3 dispose 3 DISPOSE (CCB -50%->25,700 SR1 breakdown; HSBC -50%->6,000 profit-take/SR MeanRevDown; 7709 -83%->300 overlay full-exit) free ~HK + NO ACQUIRE (Lenovo degraded, @23.26 GTC withdrawn -> WATCH) -> all cash-raising. Hua Hong stop-breach HELD through TSMC (stop reset 162). Tencent 30% trim slot-capped. Post-cash ~HK.
- 10 July 2026 1 acquire / 3 dispose 3 DISPOSE (HSBC -50%->6,000 profit-take; 7709 -72%->500 overlay full-exit; CATL -33%->200 SR1 loss-cut) free ~HK + 1 ACQUIRE (Lenovo QUEUED 4,000 @23.26, ~HK) -> (net +~HK). Tencent 30% trim slot-capped; CCB/Link no-action (L4). Post-cash ~HK.
- 9 July 2026 1 acquire / 3 dispose 3 DISPOSE (CCB -50%->25,700; 7709 -72%->500; Tencent -50%->100 profit-take) free ~HK + 1 ACQUIRE (Lenovo QUEUED 4,000 @23.15, ~HK) ->. Link slot-capped near-miss. Post-cash ~HK.
- 8 July 2026 0 acquire / 3 dispose 3 DISPOSE (CCB -50%->25,700; 7709 -72%->500; Link -36%->1,800) free ~HK; 0 ACQUIRE (buy pool = 1 falling knife, rejected). HSBC trail-raise 148.3 + Tencent both fired-but-slot-capped near-misses. Post-cash ~HK.
- 7 July 2026 0 acquire / 3 dispose 3 DISPOSE (CCB -50%->25,700; Link -85%->400; 7709 -50%->900) free ~HK; 0 ACQUIRE (buy pool EMPTY at close). Tencent -50% firm SR1 slot-capped near-miss. HSBC sell withdrawn (HOLD, trail 148.3). Post-cash ~HK.
- 6 July 2026 0 acquire / 3 dispose 3 DISPOSE (CCB -50%->25,700; HSBC -30%->8,400; Tencent -50%->100) free ~HK; 0 ACQUIRE (buy pool = neg-12wk falling knife China Mobile, rejected). Post-cash ~HK. Link REIT de-risk intent held (AVOID at close); YOFC marginal breach held (stop 150).
- 3 July 2026 2 acquire / 3 dispose 3 DISPOSE (CCB -50%->25,700; Link REIT ~85%->400; Tencent -50%->100) free ~HK; 2 QUEUED ACQUIRE-ADD (HSBC ~800 @151.1; StanChart ~200 @219.09) ~HK. ~HK + proceeds = ~HK available. 2513 Knowledge Atlas WATCH (un-sizeable).
- 2 July 2026 0 acquire / 3 dispose 3 DISPOSE (CCB -50% -> 25,700; Link REIT exit -> 0; Tencent -50% -> 100) free ~HK; NO firm acquire (2513 Knowledge Atlas is the only +12wk buy but un-sizeable within risk budget: 20% ATR / -23% model stop). ~HK + ~HK proceeds = ~HK available.
- 30 June 2026 0 acquire / 3 dispose 3 DISPOSE (CCB -50%->25,700, Link REIT exit->0, Tencent exit->0) free ~HK; 2 ACQUIRE held-semis (SMIC +, ASMPT +500 QUEUED@224.; no new (buy pool 12wk-inverted). ~HK available.
- 25 June 2026 0 acquire / 2 dispose CORRECTED 25-Jun close: 2 DISPOSE (Tencent exit, Link REIT exit — STRONG SELL-REDUCE +7) + RIDE China-semi winners on raised trails (7709 extended STRONG BUY-ADD -> trail+small-add-on-pullback; YOFC/SMIC/ASMPT/Hua Hong HOLD) + NO new add (buy pool all oversold-bounce 12wk-inversions). BABA exit DONE. ~HK; ~HK dry.