Hong Kong — End-of-Day record | algo2alpha

Total-Return Index · Q4 2026 75.2 -24.8% QTD Performance ›

Event Horizon · next 10 trading days as of 2026-11-09

Date	Event	Scope	Names	Dir	1wk band	(ATR)	Stance
11-10	US port-entry fees on China-linked vessels: the suspension lapsed 9 Nov ET; a two-month extension to 9 Jan 2027 is reported as formalised OOIL (COSCO-controlled parent of OOCL) sits in the Chinese-operator fee class. The base case is a non-event that rolls the overhang into the January truce deadline; a surprise lapse hits US-lane unit costs. 0316 trades about 1% above its 150.61 trail, so even the low end of the band breaks it. confidence: med · source	direct	0316H	↕	-2.0…+1.5%	-0.5…+0.4	hold through
11-10	China October exports and trade balance (customs date not confirmed; it may print 9 Nov, before the window) The October official PMI fell to 49.3 on softer export orders, and year-to-date exports are +16.4%. A sharp slowdown tests the CATL/BYD export story and OOIL volumes ahead of APEC trade talks. confidence: low · source	macro	3750H0316H1211	↕	±2.0%	±0.3	hold through
11-10	TSMC October monthly revenue (around the 10th by convention; September was NT9bn, +54.6% y/y) A hard monthly read on foundry and AI demand (Q4 guide USD 52.3-54.3bn). It reads through to the HK-listed fabs ahead of SMIC's print and to advanced-packaging demand at ASMPT. confidence: low · source	ecosystem	0981H1347H0522H	↕	±2.0%	±0.3	hold through
11-11	US October CPI (BLS-confirmed 10 Nov 08:30 ET / 21:30 HKT), first priced in HK 11 Nov The last CPI before the 9-10 Dec Fed meeting. It passes through the HKD peg into HIBOR: a hot print helps HK bank NII (0005/2888/0939) and hurts long-duration growth (0700) and the REIT (0823, watch). confidence: med · source	macro	0005H2888H0939H08230700H	↕	±1.5%	±0.5	hold through
11-13	SMIC Q3 2026 results (board meets 12 Nov; release after the HK close assumed, first HK pricing 13 Nov) A direct print on utilisation, the Q4 guide and domestic-substitution demand. Management guided Q3 revenue +2-4% q/q and gross margin 26-28%. Hua Hong's beat sets a high bar. The 11-06 EOD signal-based market sells on 0981 and 1347 execute 9 Nov; only the 0981 residual (stop 42.47, about 6.8% below the close) carries the print. trim-into only amplifies that existing signal sell. confidence: med · source	direct	0981H1347H	↕	±7.0%	±1.0	trim into
11-13	Applied Materials FQ4 2026 results (company-confirmed 12 Nov after the US close; first priced in HK 13 Nov) WFE and advanced-packaging orders plus China-mix commentary read through to China foundry capex and the ASMPT cycle. It lands on the same HK session as the SMIC reaction, so separate the two when reading the close. confidence: med · source	ecosystem	0522H0981H1347H	↕	±3.0%	±0.3	hold through
11-16	China October retail sales, industrial output and fixed-asset investment (Investing.com lists 16 Nov) September retail sales rose 1.1%. A weak consumer print raises pressure for year-end support (the platform bull case) while weighing on near-term demand. confidence: low · source	macro	0700H3690H9618H998812113750H	↕	±1.2%	±0.3	hold through
11-18	JD.com Q3 2026 results (company-confirmed 17 Nov before the US open; first HK pricing 18 Nov) The first platform print. The swing factors are retail margin against food-delivery spend, plus Singles' Day commentary, with read-through to Meituan (food-delivery competition) and Alibaba. 9618 is an odd-lot residual with its stop at 106.95, about 5.6% below the close. confidence: high · source	direct	9618H99883690H	↕	±6.0%	±1.6	tighten trail
11-18	Nvidia FQ3 FY2027 results (17 Nov after the US close per the 2 Nov run, not re-verified; first priced in HK 18 Nov) The AI-capex bellwether. The data-centre guide and HBM/packaging commentary read through to ASMPT's TCB line, to China-foundry sentiment and to the Korean memory trackers. 7709 and 7747 are 2x products (watch), so their moves run at about twice the underlying. confidence: med · source	ecosystem	0522H0981H1347H77097747	↕	±4.0%	±0.4	hold through
11-19	Tencent Q3 2026 results (board meets Wed 18 Nov per its 24 Sep notice; release after the HK close assumed, first HK pricing 19 Nov) Games, ads and cloud against AI capex. 0700 sits about at its 420.11 stop with a standing signal-based sell card. The L2 line (405.20) is 3.5% below the close, so the low end of the band slots that card. Memory treats this print as a direction test with no pre-trim. confidence: high · source	direct	0700H10249988	↕	±6.0%	±1.7	hold through
11-19	APEC leaders' meeting, Shenzhen (18-19 Nov per one analysis); an expected Trump-Xi bilateral ahead of the January trade-truce deadline A binary for the whole China complex. A concrete deal (tariff/port-fee/export-control relief) lifts the exporters (3750, 0316), China foundries and the platforms; a no-show or a breakdown re-prices the January cliff. Trump's attendance and the exact dates are not confirmed by an official source. confidence: low · source	macro	0700H3750H0981H1347H0522H0316H99881211	↕	±3.0%	±0.9	hold through
11-20	Alibaba Sept-quarter results (19 Nov after an 18 Nov board meeting; first full HK pricing 20 Nov) [watch] Cloud/AI growth and quick-commerce losses. A read on Tencent's cloud narrative and a direct read on the food-delivery subsidy war that drives Meituan's and JD's margins. 9988 is a watch row. confidence: med · source	direct	99880700H3690H9618H	↕	±6.0%	±1.4	hold through
11-20	Kuaishou Q3 2026 results (company-confirmed 19 Nov after the HK close; first HK pricing 20 Nov) [watch] Ad and e-commerce GMV plus Kling AI monetisation. A minor ad-cycle read-across to Tencent the day after its print. 1024 is a watch row. confidence: high · source	direct	10240700H	↕	±6.0%	±1.4	none
11-20	Lenovo FY26/27 interim results (date NOT confirmed; prior years 15-19 Nov) [watch] PC/AI-server mix and the memory-cost squeeze on margins. 0992 is a watch row; the date is inferred from the prior-year pattern. confidence: low · source	direct	0992	↕	±6.0%	±0.6	none
11-23	Hang Seng Indexes quarterly review results (after the close Fri 20 Nov per CICC/CLS; effective 7 Dec; first priced 23 Nov) The review uses data to 30 Sep. Recent large AI listings (Knowledge Atlas, MiniMax) are the candidate class for HSCI/Stock Connect/Tech-index changes, but no source names either one, so the linkage is a candidate class only. confidence: low · source	structure	2513H0100	↕	±3.0%	±0.2	none

Scenario bands estimate how far a scheduled event could plausibly move a name within a week, in both directions where the outcome is binary. They are research context for the book's decisions — the signal engine, not the calendar, decides trades.

Today's recommendations

1 to acquire · 3 to dispose

Ticker	Name	Close	Action	Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice.	Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice.	1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close.	4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close.	12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close.	Rationale
2382	Sunny Optical Technology	65.85	BUY — QUEUED @65.85	65.85	63.80	65.76 (-0.1%)	66.67 (+1.2%)	67.72 (+2.8%)	Fresh buy signal, ranked first in the book: price reclaimed both the 50- and-day averages without being extended, on a quality-passing, modestly undervalued name. Queued as a limit at the model entry because this name has faded twice after strong prints. HK-1 no up-size on a chase family (cell -5); sized off stale default_equity 600k (S6); estimator flat (T5); Target_Price 71.45. · news
0700	TENCENT	386.60	SELL 50%	386.60	375.20	387.89 (+0.3%)	379.72 (-1.8%)	374.01 (-3.3%)	Second close below the recorded stop with a negative 12-week view, and the signal has hardened to a strong sell in a bear-trend rally; U.S. remote AI-chip access curbs weigh on the name. L2 trim of half (2nd issue, not taken 11-13); residual held through Q3 11-18 with stop 375.20. · news
3690	MEITUAN-W	69.80	SELL ALL	69.80	71.43⚠	70.58 (+1.1%)	70.65 (+1.2%)	71.16 (+1.9%)	Closed below its recorded stop while the engine printed a fresh strong sell ranked first in the book; exit the small odd-lot position in full. Monitor breach 69.80 < 71.43 (-2.3%); 85% portion on a-share odd lot = whole lot.
0522	ASMPT	98.25	SELL 45.45%	98.25	83.50	99.91 (+1.7%)	106.39 (+8.3%)	120.85 (+23.0%)	The failed-breakout downtrend signal is intact and the stock keeps making lower closes after its strategic review disappointed; cut the position by about half. 5th issue; label softened SSR->AVOID on the same signal (adj 66), so not retired (HK-EOQ-2); retire to WATCH (re-arm <83.50) on a non-bearish settle. Engine stop == close is degenerate (P6). · news
0316	OOIL	149.10	HOLD	—	144.11	n/a	n/a	n/a	Trail 150.61 broken a 5th settle (149.10), NT x7; standing SELL displaced by the 3-slot cap (3690 stop breach + SSR77 outranked). Takes the first freed slot.
2513	KNOWLEDGE ATLAS	408.40	HOLD	—	400.00	n/a	n/a	n/a	SSR55 -> NT x5, close 408.40 (-10.0%, L 395); label decay is not a bullish signal, so the SELL stands (HK-EOQ-2). Re-slot on a settled close < 400 or SSR >= 62.
3750	CATL	369.80	HOLD	—	335.16	n/a	n/a	n/a	AV 50 sub-floor; standing SELL 200. Stop 335.16.
1347	Hua Hong Semiconductor	72.30	HOLD	—	63.24	n/a	n/a	n/a	AV 42, close 72.30 (-6.1%). Re-arm: settled REDUCE >= 65 or close < 63.24.
0981	SMIC	48.52	HOLD	—	43.22	n/a	n/a	n/a	AV 48 -> H 49 ReversalUp_Oversold. Re-arm: settled REDUCE >= 65 or close < 43.22.
0005	HSBC HDGS(USD0.50) HK O'SEAS	139.90	HOLD	—	133.60	n/a	n/a	n/a	AV 48 x6; standing SELL 6,400. Re-slot on settled REDUCE >= 65 or close < 133.60.
2888	STANCHART	229.80	HOLD	—	203.39	n/a	n/a	n/a	H 68 -> NT x6; standing SELL 300. Stop 203.39.
0939	CCB - H SHS	10.50	HOLD	—	10.21	10.47	10.59	10.62	H 63; HOLD, stop 10.21 (P1 ignores PROFIT_ARMED).
9618	JD-SW	107.00	HOLD	—	106.95	107.45	108.44	111.28	H 52, close 107.00 vs stop 106.95 (+0.05%); a settled close below = full odd-lot exit next session. Never lowered to engine 100.41.
—	Aac Technologies Holdings	—	NO ACTION	—	—	n/a	n/a	n/a	Near-miss: B 62 PullbackBuy_VWAP adj 56 < 65; 12wk 50.50 < close 51.60.

Outcome & track record

How accurate the calls have been.

365 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →

-0.700 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.

88 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.

Signal-type track record How each signal *type* has performed across ALL of this book's past decisions — not a per-stock note. 'bias' is the conviction nudge (+/-) applied to a fresh signal of that type; n = sample size, hit_1w = share that hit the 1-week target. Reliable cells earn a boost; weak ones a haircut.

How each signal type has performed across this book's past decisions (aggregate, not per-stock) — and the conviction nudge it earns.

BreakdownDown_20D (sell): 43 past trades, 58% hit the 1-week target → +2 conviction nudge.
BreakdownDown_52W (sell): 7 past trades, 57% hit the 1-week target → +1 conviction nudge.
BreakoutUp_20D (buy): 16 past trades, 60% hit the 1-week target → +2 conviction nudge.
BreakoutUp_52W (buy): 7 past trades, 71% hit the 1-week target → +4 conviction nudge.
FailedBreakdown_Up_20D (buy): 22 past trades, 24% hit the 1-week target → -5 conviction nudge.
FailedBreakdown_Up_20D (sell): 8 past trades, 50% hit the 1-week target → no conviction nudge.
FailedBreakout_Down_20D (sell): 128 past trades, 63% hit the 1-week target → +3 conviction nudge.
MomentumContinuation_Up (buy): 5 past trades, 0% hit the 1-week target → -10 conviction nudge.
NoTrade (sell): 39 past trades, 84% hit the 1-week target → +7 conviction nudge.
PullbackBuy_VWAP (buy): 21 past trades, 19% hit the 1-week target → -6 conviction nudge.
RallySell_BearTrend (sell): 40 past trades, 67% hit the 1-week target → +3 conviction nudge.
ReversalUp_Oversold (buy): 13 past trades, 54% hit the 1-week target → +1 conviction nudge.

Portfolio & signals

Every name we scanned, and where it stands.

Ticker	Name	Close	Signal The chart pattern the engine detected on this name. Hover a signal for its one-line definition; click it for the full setup/trigger rules, the trade box it produces, and the newsletter issue that teaches the underlying concept.	Action	Conv	1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close.	4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close.	12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close.
H	MEITUAN-W	69.80	RallySell_BearTrend	STRONG SELL - REDUCE	77	70.58 (+1.1%)	n/a	71.16 (+1.9%)
H	ASMPT	98.25	FailedBreakout_Down_20D	AVOID	63	99.91 (+1.7%)	n/a	120.85 (+23.0%)
H	CCB - H SHS	10.50	FailedBreakdown_Up_20D	HOLD	63	10.47 (-0.3%)	10.96 (+4.4%)	10.62 (+1.1%)
H	TENCENT	386.60	RallySell_BearTrend	STRONG SELL - REDUCE	55	387.89 (+0.3%)	n/a	374.01 (-3.3%)
H	JD-SW	107.00	FailedBreakdown_Up_20D	HOLD	52	107.45 (+0.4%)	113.59 (+6.2%)	111.28 (+4.0%)
H	CATL	369.80	FailedBreakout_Down_20D	AVOID	50	374.64 (+1.3%)	n/a	419.04 (+13.3%)
H	SMIC	48.52	ReversalUp_Oversold	HOLD	49	49.98 (+3.0%)	48.63 (+0.2%)	54.29 (+11.9%)
H	HSBC HDGS(USD0.50) HK O'SEAS	139.90	FailedBreakout_Down_20D	AVOID	48	140.51 (+0.4%)	n/a	145.66 (+4.1%)
H	Hua Hong Semiconductor	72.30	RallySell_BearTrend	AVOID	42	74.48 (+3.0%)	57.50 (-20.5%)	90.12 (+24.6%)
H	OOIL	149.10	NoTrade	NO TRADE	0	149.46 (+0.2%)	n/a	158.20 (+6.1%)
H	KNOWLEDGE ATLAS	408.40	NoTrade	NO TRADE	0	447.13 (+9.5%)	n/a	483.14 (+18.3%)
H	STANCHART	229.80	NoTrade	NO TRADE	0	230.70 (+0.4%)	n/a	233.90 (+1.8%)
	BABA-SW	90.55	BreakdownDown_20D	AVOID	81	90.40 (-0.2%)	69.06 (-23.7%)	89.94 (-0.7%)
	Sunny Optical Technology	65.85	FailedBreakdown_Up_20D	BUY	76	65.76 (-0.1%)	71.45 (+8.5%)	67.72 (+2.8%)
	XL2CSOPSMSN	41.52	FailedBreakout_Down_20D	AVOID	73	43.52 (+4.8%)	n/a	44.01 (+6.0%)
	KINGBOARD HLDG	39.10	RallySell_BearTrend	AVOID	65	40.42 (+3.4%)	38.58 (-1.3%)	45.73 (+17.0%)
	BYD	65.00	RallySell_BearTrend	AVOID	65	64.87 (-0.2%)	67.00 (+3.1%)	66.20 (+1.8%)
	MANYCORE TECH	3.68	FailedBreakout_Down_20D	AVOID	63	3.80 (+3.1%)	n/a	4.07 (+10.4%)
	PETROCHINA CO LTD H SHS	10.33	FailedBreakdown_Up_20D	WATCH	63	10.32 (-0.1%)	11.04 (+6.9%)	10.39 (+0.6%)
	XL2CSOPHYNIX	16.05	FailedBreakout_Down_20D	AVOID	63	17.49 (+9.0%)	n/a	19.40 (+20.9%)
	Aac Technologies Holdings	51.60	PullbackBuy_VWAP	BUY	62	51.19 (-0.8%)	53.08 (+2.9%)	50.50 (-2.1%)
	MINIMAX-W	152.40	BreakdownDown_52W	AVOID	60	165.50 (+8.6%)	54.11 (-64.5%)	181.14 (+18.9%)
	KUAISHOU-W	25.92	BreakdownDown_52W	AVOID	60	25.88 (-0.2%)	19.73 (-23.9%)	32.19 (+24.2%)
	YOFC	88.50	RallySell_BearTrend	AVOID	55	95.76 (+8.2%)	80.00 (-9.6%)	104.11 (+17.6%)
	Lingyi iTech	6.04	PullbackBuy_VWAP	WATCH	52	5.95 (-1.5%)	6.15 (+1.8%)	6.40 (+6.0%)
	HKEX	378.40	FailedBreakdown_Up_20D	WATCH	49	379.23 (+0.2%)	391.59 (+3.5%)	373.42 (-1.3%)
	Lenovo Group Limited	17.62	BreakdownDown_20D	AVOID	30	18.95 (+7.5%)	9.12 (-48.2%)	21.41 (+21.5%)
	CHINA LIT	24.18	NoTrade	NO TRADE	0	24.49 (+1.3%)	n/a	24.10 (-0.3%)
	LINK REIT	40.96	NoTrade	NO TRADE	0	40.83 (-0.3%)	n/a	40.34 (-1.5%)
	CHINA MOBILE	80.40	NoTrade	NO TRADE	0	81.35 (+1.2%)	n/a	78.33 (-2.6%)
	XIAOMI CORP-W	28.86	NoTrade	NO TRADE	0	28.84 (-0.1%)	n/a	27.07 (-6.2%)

Hong Kong — End-of-Day Verdict

1 to acquire · 3 to dispose

How accurate the calls have been.

Every name we scanned, and where it stands.

Earlier end-of-day records.