ReversalUp_Oversold
Oversold reversal with volume capitulation and momentum divergence
Setup — what must already be true
- Price vs EMAs is Below Both
- RSI regime is one of Oversold / Extreme Oversold
- Price vs EMA100/200 is one of Below Both / Between / Unknown
- Liquidity gate is Pass
Trigger — what fires the signal
- Momentum trajectory (RSI + MACD direction) is one of Both Improving / Mixed
- Volume vs 20-day average ≥ 1.3 (HK: 1.1, SG: 1.2)
- any of: RSI divergence is Bullish Divergence — or — MACD histogram is one of Weakening Bear / Bullish
Trade box & conviction bar
- Entry: market
- Stop: reversal low (2 ATR)
- Target: fixed
- Time stop: 8 bars
- Conviction: BUY-grade at ≥ 70, STRONG at ≥ 85 — a counter-trend family, so the bar is deliberately higher than the default 55/75
📰 From the newsletter
- Issue #7-3 · Speed, Not Prophecy: Momentum Indicators — Momentum indicators measure the speed of price movement, not the certainty of a reversal. Using too many of them often creates redundancy rather than confirmation.
Live track record for this signal
- US Main (sell): 100% hit the 1-week target (n=2, building sample)
- AI · US Semiconductors (sell): 0% hit the 1-week target (n=2, building sample)
- AI · Berkshire Mirror (sell): 50% hit the 1-week target (n=2, building sample)
- AI · Berkshire Doctrine (buy): 0% hit the 1-week target (n=1, building sample)
- Hong Kong Main (buy): 54% hit the 1-week target (n=13)
- Singapore Main (sell): 100% hit the 1-week target (n=1, building sample)
See it live right now
- 0981 · SMIC in AI · HK Semiconductors — WATCH at conviction 53 (chart with entry/stop/targets drawn)
- 0981 · SMIC in AI · HK Tech — WATCH at conviction 53 (chart with entry/stop/targets drawn)
- 0981 · SMIC in Hong Kong Main — HOLD at conviction 49 (chart with entry/stop/targets drawn)