FailedBreakdown_Up_20D
Recent breakdown failed — price closed back above breakdown level NOTE (audit 2026-07-07): requires_signal_history is not implemented and the setup∩trigger donchian intersection is Mid_Range-only — the signal detects bullish drift near lows, not a verified failed breakdown; semantic rework tracked as a Tranche-B issue.
Setup — what must already be true
- Donchian channel position is one of Near Low / Mid Range
- EMA stack (5/10/20/50 alignment) is one of Bullish Full / Bullish Partial / Mixed
- Liquidity gate is Pass
Trigger — what fires the signal
- Donchian channel position is one of Mid Range / Near High
- Volume vs 20-day average < 1
- Momentum trajectory (RSI + MACD direction) is one of Both Improving / Mixed
Trade box & conviction bar
- Entry: market
- Stop: swing low (0.5 ATR)
- Target: fixed atr (2 ATR)
- Time stop: 5 bars
- Conviction: BUY-grade at ≥ 65, STRONG at ≥ 85 — a counter-trend family, so the bar is deliberately higher than the default 55/75
- Requires signal history — it watches how a prior signal on the same name resolved.
📰 From the newsletter
- Issue #7-2 · Listening for the Wind — Trend tools answer two questions: where price is moving and whether that movement has enough strength to matter.
Live track record for this signal
- US Main (buy): 58% hit the 1-week target (n=19)
- AI · US Tech (buy): 63% hit the 1-week target (n=8)
- AI · US Semiconductors (buy): 14% hit the 1-week target (n=7)
- AI · Berkshire Mirror (buy): 0% hit the 1-week target (n=2, building sample)
- Hong Kong Main (buy): 24% hit the 1-week target (n=22)
- AI · HK Financials (buy): 88% hit the 1-week target (n=8)
- AI · HK Semiconductors (buy): 14% hit the 1-week target (n=8)
- Singapore Main (buy): 0% hit the 1-week target (n=1, building sample)
- AI · SG Blue Chips (buy): 0% hit the 1-week target (n=4, building sample)
- Sector ETFs (buy): 43% hit the 1-week target (n=28)
See it live right now
- KR · Kroger Co in AI · Berkshire Mirror — HOLD at conviction 83 (chart with entry/stop/targets drawn)
- KR · KROGER CO in AI · Berkshire Doctrine — HOLD at conviction 83 (chart with entry/stop/targets drawn)
- 2382 · Sunny Optical Technology in Hong Kong Main — BUY at conviction 76 (chart with entry/stop/targets drawn)
- 2382 · Sunny Optical Technology in AI · HK Semiconductors — BUY at conviction 74 (chart with entry/stop/targets drawn)
- CB · Chubb Ltd in AI · Berkshire Mirror — HOLD at conviction 70 (chart with entry/stop/targets drawn)
- CB · CHUBB LIMITED in AI · Berkshire Doctrine — HOLD at conviction 70 (chart with entry/stop/targets drawn)