AI · HK Semiconductors — Track record
Every elapsed decision is graded against what prices actually did — hit-rates and errors per signal family, plus the cost of the decisions this book chose not to take.
21 graded 0 pending
1W calibration -0.90 How far along the 1-week path a decision typically gets: the fraction of the decided move realized after one week, measured across this book's graded decisions. Feeds a bounded conviction adjustment back into future decisions.
Scorecard
Hit-rates per signal family.
| Signal family | Dir | n | Hit 1W | Hit 4W | Hit 12W | Med err 1W | Stop-first | Bias | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | buy | 8 | 14% | 14% | — | -39.2% | 88% | -7 | ● active |
| PullbackBuy_VWAP | sell | 4 | 50% | 75% | — | — | 0% | 0 | ○ building sample (4/5) |
| NoTrade | sell | 3 | 33% | 67% | — | — | 0% | 0 | ○ building sample (3/5) |
| PullbackBuy_VWAP | buy | 3 | 67% | 67% | — | +8.1% | 33% | 0 | ○ building sample (3/5) |
| FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | sell | 1 | 0% | 0% | — | — | 0% | 0 | ○ building sample (1/5) |
| FailedBreakout_Down_20D | sell | 1 | — | — | — | — | 0% | 0 | ○ building sample (1/5) |
| OversoldBounce_Up | buy | 1 | 100% | — | — | +1.5% | 0% | 0 | ○ building sample (1/5) |
Counterfactuals Counterfactuals grade decisions that were NOT executed — expired queues, no-chase rules, untaken optional trims — against what the market then did. They are kept strictly separate from the calibration cells above.
What the decisions we didn't take would have done.
- No-chase queue (queued a pullback instead of chasing) — 12 cases , median would-have 1W move +21.6% → verdict: cost
- Optional trims not taken — 48 cases , median would-have 1W move +1.0% → verdict: saved
- Queue expiry (order lapsed unfilled) — 1 case , median would-have 1W move +40.6% → verdict: cost
Counterfactuals are advisory evidence for the book's learnings reviews — never blended into the calibration cells.