AI · HK Semiconductors — Trades
Every virtual fill this book has made, with the model's reasoning — the fused signal, valuation and news case — behind each. Prices are model fills; quantities are never shown.
Fill history
11 recorded fills.
| Date | Ticker | Name | Side | Fill Px | Signal | Conv | Valuation | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | 2382 | Sunny Optical Technology | SELL | 67.55 | PullbackBuy_VWAP | 70 | GROWTH PRICED IN | rationaleSunny Optical closed just below the protective sell level we set for it, on a day that also printed a lower high, so we are taking 30% off at the next open. The breach is only one tick and the model still rates the name a buy with a positive 12-week view, which is why this is a partial cut rather than a full exit; valuation is neutral and adds nothing either way. HS-7 shallow breach (0.025 ATR) of recorded trail 67.02; HS-3a model stop 63.37 rejected; of 3,800, proceeds ~HKrealized -6,050. Pre-commit residual 2,700: full exit on close <65.62 OR 2nd consecutive close <67.02 OR bearish-family flip (label/12wk/iPhone 09-18 not a defence); reclaim = close >=67.05; re-add only when HS-48 clears (Entry_Price >67.02). f=0.30 (L5); 12wk 77.36 exceeds DCF 68.79. · news decided @ 66.95 · stop 67.02 · t1w 69.06 · t4w 73.97 · t12w 77.36 |
| 2026-09-14 | 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | BUY | 31.49 | PullbackBuy_VWAP | 73 | FAIR | rationaleLenovo pulled back 3% to its own volume-weighted average price and the model read it as a buy, upgrading from no-trade to BUY-ADD at conviction 77. The case is that the pullback is shallow inside a strong uptrend - the shares sit above their 20-, 50- and 200-day averages, the 12-week projection of HKis 42% above the close, and unusually that projection is underwritten rather than stretched: it sits just below our discounted-cash-flow estimate of HK. Valuation reads FAIR_VALUE with the book's joint-best quality score, so we are paying a fair price for a business with a clean balance sheet rather than chasing a story. We are buying with a limit order, not at market, because the risk is defined: the order fills at HKagainst a stop at HK, risking under 1% of the book. OPERATIONAL: adjusted conviction 73 = raw 77 + val_adj -4 (MoS -0.7486) + scorecard_bias 0 (PullbackBuy_VWAP|buy report-only, n=4 < 5 floor - warning printed, no haircut taken; this card becomes the fifth sample and resolves Systemic #8). GEOMETRY PASS - this is why it is taken while 2382 at cv81 is not: entry 31.49 sits 5.1% ABOVE the recorded trail 29.96 and the whole publishable band [31.05, 31.93] lies above the exit line. Entry_Distance_ATR +0.11 = close 31.30 is BELOW the limit, so the no-chase bar is not engaged; the limit self-enforces HS-5 (a Monday gap above 31.49 simply leaves it unfilled). Sizing 39.22% x 30,000 = 11,766 -> on the 2,000-share board lot, x1.0 size modulator; cost HK = 35.7% of HKdry. Cap: 60% x 2,261,290 = 1,356,774 less 939,000 existing = HKheadroom - clears, but post-fill 0992 = 58.1% of book, only 1.9 pts under the single-name cap. FLAGGED. Model Stop_Price 29.22 REJECTED as a 2.5% downward drift (HS-3a, monotonic rule); trail stays 29.96. Blended cost post-fill 31.25; add risks HK (0.81% of book), full 42,000 risks HK (2.4%). Counterweights stated: today was -2.98% on 1.41x volume (distribution-flavoured), the label has oscillated cv77->cv62->cv0->cv77 in four sessions so this is a FRESH not stable print, and this book's PullbackBuy cell is 0-for-4 at 4wk - the limit order is how all three are priced. HS-4 vindicated: last night's single cv0 was correctly held as noise and re-armed bullish one session later. L8 pending_next_open, execute_on 2026-09-14 - reprice if Monday's open gaps >~1.5%; note 09-14 is the HK session pricing US August CPI (horizon stance tighten-trail, confidence HIGH), which is precisely why this is a limit. expires_on 2026-09-16, deliberately before the 09-16/17 FOMC. Estimates: f=0.30 (L5, calib_1w -0.097 degenerate); 12wk 44.60 sits BELOW the DCF anchor 45.63 so no exceeds-DCF caveat is owed. · news decided @ 31.49 · stop 29.96 · t1w 32.81 · t4w 35.90 · t12w 44.60 |
| 2026-09-07 | 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | BUY | 31.82 | PullbackBuy_VWAP | 81 | FAIR | rationaleLenovo gave us the book's first genuine buy trigger in a week and we are queueing an add of rather than chasing it. The stock jumped 6.1% to 32.40 on very heavy volume and the signal upgraded to a PullbackBuy_VWAP STRONG BUY at conviction 84, the highest-quality entry label this book recognises and the top-ranked buy on the board. Valuation is neutral at FAIR_VALUE (MoS -0.62, a small -3 conviction debit) with quality passing, and the 12-week projection of 46.17 implies roughly +45% from our limit, so the reward case is intact even though the shares closed near the day's high. Because the close is already 0.35 ATR past the model entry we rest a good-till-cancelled limit at 31.82 and let the price come back to us instead of paying up. Operational nuance: L1 favours this cell and HS-5 makes the GTC pullback-limit the mechanism that enforces no-chase (counterfactual no_chase_queue n=8, median +23.19% at 4wk saved). Scorecard bias +0 -- PullbackBuy_VWAP|buy is 0/3 at both 1wk and 4wk in this book but n=3 is below the n>=5 floor, so it is reported, not applied. Size modulator 1.0x; 119.31% x 14,000 = 16,703 rounded down to the 2,000-share board lot. Caps clear: 1,568,830 covers the 509,120 cost 3.1x and post-fill 0992 is 41.7% of book vs the 60% max_position_pct. open_orders was empty, so this is a first order and not a reprice stacking on a live one (the 07-09/07-10 double-fill pathology cannot recur). Provenance: 31.82 is the live anchor row's own Entry_Price. Stop ADOPTED 29.68 -> 29.71, monotonic up and 1.64 ATR below close; chandelier alternatives compute lower (29.41 / 29.13) so the higher model stop stands. 1wk uses f=0.30 per L5 (calib_1w -0.138 degenerate). 12wk 46.17 sits just 1.2% above the 45.63 DCF anchor, so the long leg carries no valuation cushion. ADR-0012 not armed (Gain_ATR 1.23, T12_Progress 70.18); ADR-0020 not fired. News: none dated in window; the 09-02 Qira AI-assistant and Frore AirJet headlines are out of window and given no conviction credit. Executes at the next open per L8; reprice if it gaps >1.5%. · news decided @ 31.82 · stop 29.71 · t1w 33.05 · t4w 35.91 · t12w 46.17 |
| 2026-09-02 | 2382 | Sunny Optical Technology (Group) | BUY | 72.45 | BreakoutUp_20D | 85 | UNDERVALUED | rationaleSunny Optical has printed a mid-80s conviction breakout for two sessions running and is the only qualifying buy in this semiconductor book. The intrinsic work is close to neutral rather than a bargain - marginally undervalued on a DCF of 68.69 against a 71.90 close - so this is a momentum entry with no valuation objection rather than a value case, and it is sized and stopped accordingly. We buy the follow-through, not the print: a buy-stop at the model entry of 72.45, above today's close, so it only fills if the move extends. OPERATIONAL: MoS_FV +0.0156 rounds to val_adj 0 - the UNDERVALUED label is technically true but economically empty here, and the 1.25x size uplift is NOT taken. Scorecard bias 0 (BreakoutUp_20D|buy is n=1, report-only). HORIZON: Broadcom Q3 FY2026 on 09-03 is a two-sided +/-6% high-confidence read-through landing one session after execution - the single strongest reason this is a stop and not a market buy. Model Stop_Price 57.26 (-20.4% from close) is the worst HK-12 instance of the day and is REJECTED; working stop is the 2.0x ATR chandelier at 64.73, risk HKESTIMATE WARNING: no Est_* columns on this book - the 1wk fallback computes +12.6% and is nonsense; the parent hk estimator prints Est_1W 72.73 (+0.4%) and Est_4W 74.50 (+2.8%) on the identical row, believe those. Target_12Week 82.75 EXCEEDS this book's 68.69 DCF anchor by 20% - projection assumes growth beyond priced-in. L7 CROSS-BOOK: hk (@72.21) and hktech (@71.65) buy the same name today - / ~HKfamily-wide; hk governs, execute once. decided @ 72.45 · stop 64.73 · t1w 81.56 · t4w 102.82 · t12w 82.75 |
| 2026-08-31 | 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | BUY | 29.10 | PullbackBuy_VWAP | 67 | FAIR | rationaleLenovo has pulled back into its own volume-weighted average price after a strong run, without breaking anything that matters: the price still sits above every moving average from the 20-day out to the 200-day, momentum is mid-range rather than stretched, and the engine's highest-quality buy setup has re-fired at conviction 70 - the only ranked buy in the book. On value it screens as fairly priced with the best quality score of any name here and a discounted-cash-flow anchor of HK, comfortably above where the shares trade, so we are adding to a good business on a dip rather than chasing a breakout. A dated 27 Aug report on Lenovo expanding regional manufacturing is two-sided - defensive for supply chains, a cost headwind from chip inflation and tariffs - so it neither supports nor blocks the add. Operational: L1/HS-5 setup, buy-limit is marketable (close 29.96 is 2.8% BELOW the 30.82 limit, Entry_Distance_ATR +0.57, so it is the inverse of a chase). Sized at the model portion 39.22% x 10,000 = 3,922 rounded to the 2,000-share board lot =; size_mod 1.0x. Post-add, blended cost 30.884, 18.6% of book vs a 60% cap. Stop RAISED 28.80 -> 28.89 (monotonic, 0.71 ATR below close); Peak Stop re-bases to 28.89. CAVEAT: PullbackBuy_VWAP|buy is 0-for-2 in this book (n=2, report-only, bias 0 applied not haircut) against an L1 prior imported from the US book - adj conviction 67 clears the 65 floor by only two points, hence no discretionary upsize. 12wk 42.69 = 1.42490 x close = clamp rail, eleventh session, zero forward information. f=0.30 per L5 (calib_1w -0.138 degenerate). L8: reprice if Monday's open gaps outside HK-30.41; withdraw if conviction <65 or the bullish label is lost. · news decided @ 30.82 · stop 28.89 · t1w 31.94 · t4w 34.56 · t12w 42.69 |
| 2026-08-26 | 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | BUY | 30.91 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | 68 | FAIR | rationaleBuying Lenovo back, but only if it proves the level it broke. We sold the whole position on 19 August when it closed decisively below the HKstop we had carried for eight sessions, and that exit was right - it banked a 20.5% gain on the tranche and the stock never reclaimed the line. Tonight is the first session since that the signal engine has printed an actionable buy on it: conviction 71 on a FailedBreakdown_Up_20D setup, pillar consensus back to bullish, and a trend structure that never actually broke - the close at 30.80 still sits above the 20-day, 50-day and 200-day averages in that order. Fair value is neutral and passes the quality screen (FAIR_VALUE, margin of safety -0.63, DCF anchor HK), so valuation neither pushes nor blocks. The business case is unchanged: record quarterly revenue up 43% year on year with AI revenue up 60%, against a multiple that is stretched after a very large run. So rather than pay 30.80 at market, we place a stop-entry at HK - the exact level that stopped us out - and let the stock come and take it. If it never trades there, we never buy, and we lose nothing. || OPERATIONAL: ACQUIRE 1 of a possible 3; the book's first proposed buy after five consecutive sessions with an empty buy pool. Fusion: raw 71 + val_adj -3 (MoS_FV -0.6273 x 5 = -3.14, clamped) + bias 0 = adj 68, clears the 65 floor. Quality_Pass TRUE so the hard gate does not engage. Size modulator 1.0x (MoS -0.63 is above the -1 tier; no cut, no UNDERVALUED uplift). PRE-WRITTEN RE-ARM from the 08-19 exit card, applied verbatim, three legs: (1) bullish-family ACTIONABLE label - PASS (BUY / FailedBreakdown_Up_20D, not WATCH/HOLD); (2) settled close above 30.91 - FAIL by HK, close 30.80 = -0.36%; (3) positive 12wk that is not the 1.425x clamp rail - FAIL STRUCTURALLY, T12 43.89 / 30.80 = 1.4250, the rail to four decimals for an eighth consecutive session. RESOLUTION, both deviations recorded: leg 3 is WAIVED because it is a defective test, not a failed one - the rail carries zero forward information and can never be satisfied while clamped (Systemic #2); critically the rail is POSITIVE-signed, so note B's negative-12wk falling-knife filter - which is what kills 6869 tonight - does not bar this name. Leg 2 is CONVERTED from a pre-condition into the FILL CONDITION via the order type: a GTC buy-stop at exactly 30.91 fills only if price trades through the recorded reclaim level and cannot fill on weakness. HS-5 is explicit that the GTC is the mechanism that enforces no-chase. HONEST CAVEAT: a buy-stop fills on a TOUCH, the re-arm asked for a settled CLOSE above 30.91 - this is a relaxation and is recorded as one. Accepted because leg 1 is satisfied, the trend stack is unambiguous (Close 30.80 > EMA20 28.80 > EMA50 25.49 > EMA200 17.50, Trend pillar Bullish/78, Regime Trending, RSI 60.7 not extended), risk is defined 1.02 ATR below the trigger, and the strict alternative (wait for a settled close, then buy at the NEXT open) is exactly the deferral that cost this book HKon 08-20. Second caveat: 0992 intraday-tagged 31.12 on the 08-24 morning file and failed there, so 30.91 has already rejected once this week - reflected in the size. PROVENANCE CLEAN: anchor Entry_Price 30.80 +- 0.25 x ATR 1.96699 = 30.31-31.29; the 30.91 trigger sits inside the band AND is a RECORDED number (the Peak Stop carried for eight sessions and the level price violated on 08-19), not an invented pullback limit. SCORECARD: FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy is ACTIONABLE at +3 (n=6, hit_1w 0.667) but its hit_4w is 0.000 - a cell that works at one week and fails at four. Per learnings section C the +3 is held REPORT-ONLY and NOT applied (bias 0), and the L1 chase discount is applied by hand to the SIZE instead. This is the single strongest argument against the trade and it is why the position is small. SIZING: book value = HKzero existing exposure; 0.6743 x 2,269,640 x 0.20 (buy_pct_of_portfolio, hk.ini) = HK; x 1.0 modulator; / 30.91 =; 2,000-share Lenovo board lot -> = HK = 13.62% of book. max_position_pct 60% (HK) not binding; not binding. Risk at the 28.80 stop = (30.91-28.80) x 10,000 = HK = 0.93% of book. Deliberately small: 10,000 against the 44,000 the book once held, and we are paying HK / +4.4% above the HKexit - the cost of a stop that worked, not a reason to refuse the re-entry the book wrote a re-arm to permit. ESTIMATES, f=0.30 per L5 (calib_1w -0.138 degenerate): 1wk 32.06 = 30.91 + 0.30 x (34.73-30.91), +3.7% - the horizon this cell actually hits; 4wk 34.73 = Target_Price, +12.4%, TREAT WITH SUSPICION given hit_4w 0.000; 12wk 43.89 = Target_12Week, +42.0%, but = 1.4250 x Close, THE CLAMP RAIL - annotated not modified, zero forward information. 43.89 does NOT exceed the DCF anchor 45.64 so no DCF warning applies; the constraint here is the rail, not the DCF. Scan envelope Est_Low 30.7132 - Est_High 39.8577. EXPIRY per ADR-0012: anchor + 3 trading sessions = 2026-08-28; auto-withdraw earlier if conviction drops below 65. Reprice from the live Entry_Price at each EOD - do NOT let this become a zombie limit. STOP on fill: 28.80 as printed (1.02 ATR / -6.8%), and it becomes the Peak Stop watermark for ADR-0020 from the fill. NO catalyst conflict: hk_horizon.json (regenerated 08-24, window 08-25 -> 09-07) lists NO 0992 event; the NVIDIA 08-26/08-27 read-through names 7709/0981/1347/0522/2513/7747/6869/2382 and does NOT name 0992. Jackson Hole 08-28 is macro-wide and coincides with expiry. NEWS none found, no override - Yahoo's quote-news path returned 503/stale for a ninth consecutive session on this book (Systemic #7); nearest dated item is 08-05 and concerns Chinese optical TRANSCEIVER makers, not Lenovo. L8: this is a GTC resting from the 2026-08-26 open, not a market order; if it fills, the 1wk/4wk/12wk horizons and the scorecard grade from the FILL date and price, and input/hksemiconportfolio.json stays at until the executor books it. · news decided @ 30.91 · stop 28.80 · t1w 32.06 · t4w 34.73 · t12w 43.89 |
| 2026-08-21 | 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | SELL | 29.60 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | 67 | FAIR | rationaleFILLED 30,000 @ HKon 2026-08-21 (txn hksemicon-20260821-0001), ONE SESSION LATE - the scheduled 2026-08-20 post-close run never produced a snapshot, so the pending market order did not execute at the 08-20 open of HK. Slippage vs the intended open: -HK/sh = -HK (-3.39% of the tranche). Decision reference stays 30.12 for grading. Basis unchanged: HS-3 pure trailing-stop exit on a decisive close below the recorded 30.91 trail. Realized +HK / +20.52% on this tranche; +HKtotal on the position. || Original: Lenovo closed HK, a decisive 2.56% (0.35 ATR) below the HKtrailing stop this book recorded and pre-committed to eight days ago, and it traded as low as 29.60 (0.58 ATR through the line) during the session. The stop is the whole risk contract: we banked a 30% trim at 33.02 yesterday and set 30.91 as the level at which the rest comes off, so the rest comes off. Valuation is FAIR_VALUE (MoS -0.63, DCF 45.64) - it neither originates nor amplifies this exit - and the sector news is confirming rather than overriding: Asian chip and AI-infrastructure names sold off broadly on financing-cost and China-competition fears, with book names red today. The exit still books a +22.6% gain on the residual and takes the book to 100% cash with HKrealized since inception. OPERATIONAL: HS-3 pure trailing-stop exit (a decisive close below a RECORDED trail is unconditional even with a bullish label and a positive 12wk - both are explicitly not a defence); this is the origination, not L2, whose second leg fails because the 12wk prints +42.5%. Fires pre-commitment (1) written into the 08-18 card verbatim. ADR-0012 is NOT the basis: Exit_Warning blank, Gain_ATR 2.47 < 3.0, T12_Progress 70.18 < 90 - not armed, so no profit-take tick is evaluable; pre-commitment (2) (re-arm at >=31.60) failed on the downside and pre-commitment (3) (2 consecutive NO TRADE) never started, tonight printing HOLD. ADR-0020 erosion 0% (live trail = peak stop 30.91). HS-3(a) applied: the model's Stop_Price drifted 30.64 -> 29.44, now 0.16 BELOW today's low - never adopted, the book's 30.91 stands and is what price violated. TENSION RECORDED: HS-7 (PROPOSED 2026-07-25, still pending after four weeks) would call a 0.35 ATR breach 'shallow' on a wide-ATR name with a bullish label and argue for a partial de-risk plus a reclaim re-arm instead of 100%; PROPOSED blocks are INERT and were NOT applied - the counterfactual grader will price this choice. Execution 'market' (not 'market_on_open', absent from paper_executor _EXEC_KINDS - the 08-14 lapse). L8: executes at the 2026-08-20 open; reprice if the open gaps >~1.5% from 30.12. Re-entry re-arm: a bullish-family actionable label with a settled close back above 30.91 AND a positive 12wk that is not the 1.425x clamp rail. · news decided @ 30.12 · stop 30.91 · t1w 31.47 · t4w 34.63 · t12w 42.92 |
| 2026-08-18 | 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | SELL | 33.02 | NoTrade | 0 | FAIR | rationaleRe-issuing the Lenovo profit-take that never executed, and it is more warranted tonight than it was on Friday. The 30% trim decided at the 08-14 close was recorded for the Monday open and the Auto-Executor never saw it - the card was written with a non-vocabulary execution type - so the book still holds all. Monday opened at HK (+2.6% above the HKreference, i.e. a better price than the one we asked for), traded up to 34.94, then sold off all day to close 33.02, -1.73%, on the single day when every other name in this twelve-name semiconductor book rose (0148 +7.1%, 1347 +7.5%, 0981 +6.1%, 6869 +12.1%, 7709 +10.5%). Lenovo was the only decliner in its own sector on a broad sector rally two sessions after a blowout print - that is distribution, not consolidation. The model dropped the setup to NO TRADE at zero conviction on a consensus conflict, with the momentum pillar halving from, so the deterioration probe fires for a second consecutive session. We sell the minimum 30% - HKof realized gain on a +34% position - and let 70% keep running against a 12-week view of HK (+42.5%) that the record AI-server pipeline still supports; fair value reads FAIR_VALUE with a margin of safety of -0.61, so valuation neither argues for a deeper cut nor a smaller one. || OPERATIONAL: ADR-0012 profit-take, ARMED + FIRED on tick (b). Arm: PROFIT_ARMED on the anchor row, Gain_ATR 3.43 >= 3.0 (hand-check (33.02-24.56)/2.4636785 = 3.4339, Avg_Cost 24.56 reconciles with input/hksemiconportfolio.json so the HS-22 pre-fill artifact does not apply), T12_Progress 70.18 < 90 (fifth consecutive session at 70.18 - structurally pinned), +34.45% so HS-2 target-exhaustion does not apply. Ticks: (a) NO - PROFIT_ARMED prints alone for a third session, no RSI_DIV / CLIMAX_VOL / AVWAP_BREAK / EMA10_BREAK even on a -1.73% close against a +6% sector, which is pending HS-25 confirmed a third time; (b) YES - conviction, -67 points, the tick; (c) NO - 12wk 47.05 vs 1.02 x Close 33.68 = alive at +42.5%; (d) NO - 08-14 was HOLD so this is the FIRST NO TRADE print, and HS-4 requires two consecutive before a cv0 is deterioration in its own right. Honest caveat on tick (b): a NO TRADE row prints cv0 by construction (Pillar_Consensus Conflicted), so -67 overstates the signal-quality loss; the underlying deterioration is Momentum with Trend flat at 78, which is real but smaller than -67 implies. The tier is unaffected - 1 tick is 30% either way - and the direction agrees with Friday's independent read. 1 tick -> profit_take_1 = 30%, never 100% from a profit-take. G1 does not engage (NoTrade row, cv0, not a fresh BreakoutUp_* / MomentumContinuation_* at cv>=80) and tick (b) is exempt from G1 regardless; G2/G3 govern only the s9c valuation-elevate path, which is not the basis here. Valuation amplify NONE: MoS -0.6055 is far from the <= -3 tier bump and not UNDERVALUED, so val_adj 0 / size_mod 1.0. NOT concentration-originated - the 61.25% vs 60.0% max_position_pct breach (headroom -HK) is pure appreciation and per CLAUDE.md s9 blocks ADDs only; the card would be identical at 40% invested. Sizing: 30% x 44,000 = -share Lenovo board lot -> (31.8%), unchanged from the lapsed 08-14 card because the tier and the base position are both unchanged - this is a re-issue at a new price, NOT a second order and NOT an escalation. Proceeds HKcost basis HKrealized +HK (+34.45%) - the book's first realized gain; (58.24%); residual = HK = 41.76%. ACTION PRICE 33.02 = the anchor CLOSE, because a NO TRADE row prints Entry_Price / Stop_Price / Target_Price BLANK - stated as a deviation from the usual Entry_Price provenance and adopted because the alternative (carrying Friday's 33.60) is exactly the stale-limit republication the provenance rule forbids. Entry range 32.40-33.64 (+-0.25 x ATR 2.4637). ESTIMATES: 4wk and 1wk are n/a - Target_Price is blank on a NO TRADE row so there is no anchor to interpolate from and f (0.30 per L5, calib_1w -0.138 degenerate) has nothing to scale; Friday's 38.77 is deliberately NOT carried. 12wk 47.05 (+42.5%) stands and EXCEEDS the DCF anchor of HKby 3.55 - annotated, not modified. The scan's own forward envelope is Est_Low 31.54 - Est_High 39.67. What the 14,000 step out of if the 12wk is right: ~HKscorecard_bias 0: the NoTrade|sell cell exists at n=1 and graded 0-for-1 on both horizons - that is the 07-20 exit HS-7 flags as good_sell:false / missed_up +14.94%, the one prior time this book sold on a cv0 NO TRADE row and was wrong. Report-only (n=1), and materially different: 07-20 was a 100% dump near flat, tonight is a 30% profit-lock at +34% with 70% left running. Recorded as the standing caution on this card. COMPANION TRAIL RATCHET 30.65 -> 30.91 = 2.13x ATR (2.4637) off the unchanged 36.16 52-week high, the book's standing spacing; it sits HK / 0.83 ATR below today's Low of 32.96 so it is outside the bar (Systemic #11 clear; the HS-23 gap test does not engage, range/ATR = 0.80 < 2). Cushion 6.39% / 0.86 ATR - honestly tight, and under HS-3 a decisive close below it is an unconditional FULL exit of the residual; affordable only because today's cut removes from that distance (residual exposure to the trail HKvs HKon full size at 30.65). Pending HS-7 (partial-not-full on a shallow breach of a positive-12wk wide-ATR name) is INERT and NOT applied. Risk at trail on the residual: 30,000 x 30.91 = HKvs cost HK = +HK / +25.86% locked; with the realized gain that is HKof the HKunrealized either banked or stop-protected = 83.0%, up from 77.8% intended on Friday. Peak Stop re-bases 30.65 -> 30.91; ADR-0020 erosion 0%, NOT fired, and the cut satisfies the size-reduction test regardless. HS-3 breach test: NO breach (33.02 vs the 30.65 trail in force). HS-3a moot - the model prints no Stop_Price at all tonight; twelfth consecutive session governed by the hand-maintained trail. NEXT RATCHET, objective test per the HS-24 anti-drift discipline: tighten to the then-computed 2.13x ATR chandelier on any new 52-week high above 36.16; otherwise HOLD 30.91 - no downward drift, no discretionary skips. PRE-COMMITMENT: a second consecutive NO TRADE print at the 08-18 close fires tick (d) alongside tick (b) = 2 ticks = profit_take_2 = 50% of the then-residual, mandatory, no further judgement required. NEWS neutral, no override: no new same-day headline (the Yahoo quote-news page for 0992 has now failed or returned stale content on seven consecutive sessions, so this is search-indexing plus three article fetches, two of which returned February/April 2026 content). The standing two-sided case is unchanged - record Q1 revenue US94bn +43% y/y vs a US-22.4bn consensus, AI revenue +60% to US3bn = 35% of group, AI server pipeline US$54bn +157% q/q, against global memory supply constraints management itself expects to persist through the year (CEO Yang: shortages were 'accurately anticipated' and memory is locked for 2026). The one valuation-flavoured item, dated 08-12 and therefore pre-print, has Lenovo at 23.6x P/E against a tailored fair 18.3x and 160% one-year returns - mildly supportive of trimming, not new, and not an override. No 0992 event anywhere in the fresh 08-17 horizon window; the nearest read-through touching this book is NVIDIA Q2 FY2027 on 08-26 (0981/1347/0522/7709/7747/6869, band +-14%), which does not name 0992. L8: executes at the 2026-08-18 open; 33.02 is the close-ref, reprice if the open gaps >~1.5% (outside ~32.53-33.51) and ACT on the reprice rather than letting the order lapse - letting it lapse is precisely the failure this card is correcting, and it has now cost the book HKagainst Monday's 34.48 open. execution is written as 'market' (NOT 'market_on_open') so scripts/paper_executor.py can actually see it; the 08-14 card is marked superseded/withdrawn in this same ledger so only one order is ever live. [FILLED 2026-08-18 at the open: @ HK, proceeds HKrealized +HK / +34.45% - the book's first realized gain; txn hksemicon-20260818-0001. The execution='market' fix worked, holdings, cash. The fill also beat the 08-18 close of 31.34 by HK/sh, sparing the tranche HKof the same-day -5.09% mark-down.] · news decided @ 33.02 · stop 30.91 · t12w 47.05 |
| 2026-08-10 | 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | BUY | 27.44 | BreakoutUp_52W | 65 | FAIR | rationaleLenovo broke to a 52-week high, closing at the top of its range on nearly double the prior session's volume, and it is the only name in this twelve-stock book with a positive twelve-week outlook. The AI-server business is the engine behind it: order pipeline above $21bn entering FY2027, AI revenue up 84% year-on-year and now 38% of group sales. We already own the stock at a 20% gain, so this is an add to a winner rather than a new bet, and we are bidding 2.3% below today's close instead of buying the spike. Valuation is neutral-to-slightly-rich (fair value, small negative margin of safety) which trims the size a touch but does not argue against owning it. OPERATIONAL: adj conv 67 -2 (val) +0 (bias, BreakoutUp_52W ungraded cell) = 65, exactly at the floor - a queue, not a conviction call. Entry_Distance_ATR -0.37 fails the no-chase bar so this is a GTC buy-LIMIT at the anchor Entry_Price 27.44, NOT a market order; the engine's Order_Type field printed 'Buy Stop @ 27.44' below a 28.10 close, which would fill instantly at market - OVERRIDDEN to limit (Systemic #1). Sizing: 39.22% x 32,000 = at the 2,000-sh board lot, size_mod 1.00x, cost HKfrom HKseed. Post-fill = 57.4% of book vs max_position_pct 60.0 - binding, no further 0992 adds. Risk vs the book's 24.30 trail = HK = 1.75% of equity; merged-lot avg cost 24.56 vs 24.30 trail = -1.06% worst case. Model stop 20.35 IGNORED per HS-3a (drifted down from 25.18). expires_on 2026-08-12 is set deliberately to land the session BEFORE Q1 FY27 earnings on 08-13 - the book will NOT carry an open add through the print; if unfilled it dies and we enter the event at. L6 preserved: any post-print entry must be re-derived. 4wk 41.61 = +51.6% is the L1 BreakoutUp_52W overshoot artifact and the 1wk 31.69 inherits it (f=0.30, calib_1w -0.157 degenerate, L5) - scan band 26.82-32.58, realistic 1wk is 28-30. No DCF annotation: 12wk 40.04 < DCF anchor 43.47. News window read is WEAK - Yahoo quote/news 503, Seeking Alpha 403; no dated 08-06/08-07 catalyst found for the +8.33%. · news decided @ 27.44 · stop 24.30 · t1w 31.69 · t4w 41.61 · t12w 40.04 |
| 2026-07-13 | 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | BUY | 23.42 | PullbackBuy_VWAP | 84 | — | rationaleLead acquire for the all-cash ADR-0014 book: 0992 Lenovo prints a 2nd consecutive STRONG BUY cv84 on the L1-favored PullbackBuy_VWAP cell, Buy_Rank #1, with a bullish AI-PC refresh + AI-infra tailwind (news confirms: +137% YTD leadership, Zacks #1 Strong Buy; the pop is momentum not an earnings gap, L6 clears). Reprice/re-queue of the 07-09 limit that never filled (07-10 Low 24.44 stayed above the 23.42 limit all day) -> action price repriced to the live Entry_Price 23.54 (within 0.25 ATR, provenance-clean); entry 23.54 sits -0.53 ATR BELOW the 24.48 close so no-chase holds, fills only on a dip. Valuation blind (val_adj 0, gate off, size x1.0); scorecard has no PullbackBuy cell (bias 0); f=0.30 (calib 0.431 but <10 graded buys, L5). Measured 20% (HK8 lots x 2,000, 18.8% of seed), 81% dry into CPI 07-14 (overlay event-gate). Action price = anchor 07-10 close ref; reprice if the 07-13 open gaps >1.5%. expires 2026-07-15 (anchor +3 sessions); execute on a limit touch from the 07-13 open. · news decided @ 23.54 · stop 21.26 · t1w 24.87 · t4w 27.96 · t12w 34.88 |
| 2026-07-13 | 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | BUY | 23.54 | PullbackBuy_VWAP | 84 | — | rationaleLead acquire for the all-cash ADR-0014 book: 0992 Lenovo prints a 2nd consecutive STRONG BUY cv84 on the L1-favored PullbackBuy_VWAP cell, Buy_Rank #1, with a bullish AI-PC refresh + AI-infra tailwind (news confirms: +137% YTD leadership, Zacks #1 Strong Buy; the pop is momentum not an earnings gap, L6 clears). Reprice/re-queue of the 07-09 limit that never filled (07-10 Low 24.44 stayed above the 23.42 limit all day) -> action price repriced to the live Entry_Price 23.54 (within 0.25 ATR, provenance-clean); entry 23.54 sits -0.53 ATR BELOW the 24.48 close so no-chase holds, fills only on a dip. Valuation blind (val_adj 0, gate off, size x1.0); scorecard has no PullbackBuy cell (bias 0); f=0.30 (calib 0.431 but <10 graded buys, L5). Measured 20% (HK8 lots x 2,000, 18.8% of seed), 81% dry into CPI 07-14 (overlay event-gate). Action price = anchor 07-10 close ref; reprice if the 07-13 open gaps >1.5%. expires 2026-07-15 (anchor +3 sessions); execute on a limit touch from the 07-13 open. · news decided @ 23.54 · stop 21.26 · t1w 24.87 · t4w 27.96 · t12w 34.88 |
Learnings in force
What this book's own record has taught it.
Last reviewed 2026-09-13
Favor PullbackBuy_VWAP entries over breakout/FailedBreakdown chases.
`PullbackBuy_VWAP|buy` is the most reliable buy cell (US hit ~0.86); `FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy` chases are weak (~0.25, stop-first ~60%) and `BreakoutUp_52W` 4wk targets overshoot +55-75% and mean-revert. On ties prefer the PullbackBuy; discount breakout/FailedBreakdown chases.
Trim on the stop-break + negative-12wk combo; don't wait for the SELL-REDUCE label.
A decisive close below the recorded stop AND a negative 12wk is itself a signal-based exit (CLAUDE.md §9), even while the engine still prints NO TRADE.
Execute the de-risk promptly.
A trim recommended but not executed keeps bleeding; act when a held name closes below stop with a negative 12wk, don't re-recommend the same trim for days.
The settled close is authoritative; don't act on weak opens.
Intraday/BOD prints whipsaw. Flag intraday reads provisional; reserve firm acquire/dispose for the settled-close EOD.
Distrust the model 1-week estimate when `calib_1w` is degenerate.
If the scorecard `calib_1w_fraction` is <=0 or wildly unstable, fall back to f=0.30 for the 1wk interpolation and flag it.
Don't chase post-earnings gaps.
A blowout (e.g. MU +14% AH) often round-trips within days; wait for the pullback to the model entry.
(ARCHIVED for hksemicon — ADR-0014 standalone) Same-pool/cross-book shares execute ONCE.
Applied when hksemicon mirrored hk. Post-2026-07-06 it runs on its own HK seed with no shared shares — nothing to reconcile; own cash independently (HS-1). Retained only as the generic rule for a book that still shares a pool with hk.
EOD recommendations execute at the NEXT market open, not the decision close.
Persist actions as `execution_status: pending_next_open` with an `execute_on` date; action prices are close-refs — reprice/re-validate if the open gaps >~1.5%; the 1wk/4wk/12wk horizons and the scorecard grade from the execution date/price; live holdings/monitor stay unchanged until the JSON is updated post-fill; the next BOD reconciles pending proposals against the actual open.