AI · HK Semiconductors — Trades
Every virtual fill this book has made, with the model's reasoning — the fused signal, valuation and news case — behind each. Prices are model fills; quantities are never shown.
Fill history
2 recorded fills.
| Date | Ticker | Name | Side | Fill Px | Signal | Conv | Valuation | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | BUY | 23.42 | PullbackBuy_VWAP | 84 | — | rationaleLead acquire for the all-cash ADR-0014 book: 0992 Lenovo prints a 2nd consecutive STRONG BUY cv84 on the L1-favored PullbackBuy_VWAP cell, Buy_Rank #1, with a bullish AI-PC refresh + AI-infra tailwind (news confirms: +137% YTD leadership, Zacks #1 Strong Buy; the pop is momentum not an earnings gap, L6 clears). Reprice/re-queue of the 07-09 limit that never filled (07-10 Low 24.44 stayed above the 23.42 limit all day) -> action price repriced to the live Entry_Price 23.54 (within 0.25 ATR, provenance-clean); entry 23.54 sits -0.53 ATR BELOW the 24.48 close so no-chase holds, fills only on a dip. Valuation blind (val_adj 0, gate off, size x1.0); scorecard has no PullbackBuy cell (bias 0); f=0.30 (calib 0.431 but <10 graded buys, L5). Measured 20% (HK8 lots x 2,000, 18.8% of seed), 81% dry into CPI 07-14 (overlay event-gate). Action price = anchor 07-10 close ref; reprice if the 07-13 open gaps >1.5%. expires 2026-07-15 (anchor +3 sessions); execute on a limit touch from the 07-13 open. · news decided @ 23.54 · stop 21.26 · t1w 24.87 · t4w 27.96 · t12w 34.88 |
| 2026-07-13 | 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | BUY | 23.54 | PullbackBuy_VWAP | 84 | — | rationaleLead acquire for the all-cash ADR-0014 book: 0992 Lenovo prints a 2nd consecutive STRONG BUY cv84 on the L1-favored PullbackBuy_VWAP cell, Buy_Rank #1, with a bullish AI-PC refresh + AI-infra tailwind (news confirms: +137% YTD leadership, Zacks #1 Strong Buy; the pop is momentum not an earnings gap, L6 clears). Reprice/re-queue of the 07-09 limit that never filled (07-10 Low 24.44 stayed above the 23.42 limit all day) -> action price repriced to the live Entry_Price 23.54 (within 0.25 ATR, provenance-clean); entry 23.54 sits -0.53 ATR BELOW the 24.48 close so no-chase holds, fills only on a dip. Valuation blind (val_adj 0, gate off, size x1.0); scorecard has no PullbackBuy cell (bias 0); f=0.30 (calib 0.431 but <10 graded buys, L5). Measured 20% (HK8 lots x 2,000, 18.8% of seed), 81% dry into CPI 07-14 (overlay event-gate). Action price = anchor 07-10 close ref; reprice if the 07-13 open gaps >1.5%. expires 2026-07-15 (anchor +3 sessions); execute on a limit touch from the 07-13 open. · news decided @ 23.54 · stop 21.26 · t1w 24.87 · t4w 27.96 · t12w 34.88 |
Learnings in force
What this book's own record has taught it.
Last reviewed 2026-07-18
Favor PullbackBuy_VWAP entries over breakout/FailedBreakdown chases.
`PullbackBuy_VWAP|buy` is the most reliable buy cell (US hit ~0.86); `FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy` chases are weak (~0.25, stop-first ~60%) and `BreakoutUp_52W` 4wk targets overshoot +55-75% and mean-revert. On ties prefer the PullbackBuy; discount breakout/FailedBreakdown chases.
Trim on the stop-break + negative-12wk combo; don't wait for the SELL-REDUCE label.
A decisive close below the recorded stop AND a negative 12wk is itself a signal-based exit (CLAUDE.md §9), even while the engine still prints NO TRADE.
Execute the de-risk promptly.
A trim recommended but not executed keeps bleeding; act when a held name closes below stop with a negative 12wk, don't re-recommend the same trim for days.
The settled close is authoritative; don't act on weak opens.
Intraday/BOD prints whipsaw. Flag intraday reads provisional; reserve firm acquire/dispose for the settled-close EOD.
Distrust the model 1-week estimate when `calib_1w` is degenerate.
If the scorecard `calib_1w_fraction` is <=0 or wildly unstable, fall back to f=0.30 for the 1wk interpolation and flag it.
Don't chase post-earnings gaps.
A blowout (e.g. MU +14% AH) often round-trips within days; wait for the pullback to the model entry.
(ARCHIVED for hksemicon — ADR-0014 standalone) Same-pool/cross-book shares execute ONCE.
Applied when hksemicon mirrored hk. Post-2026-07-06 it runs on its own HK seed with no shared shares — nothing to reconcile; own cash independently (HS-1). Retained only as the generic rule for a book that still shares a pool with hk.
EOD recommendations execute at the NEXT market open, not the decision close.
Persist actions as `execution_status: pending_next_open` with an `execute_on` date; action prices are close-refs — reprice/re-validate if the open gaps >~1.5%; the 1wk/4wk/12wk horizons and the scorecard grade from the execution date/price; live holdings/monitor stay unchanged until the JSON is updated post-fill; the next BOD reconciles pending proposals against the actual open.