BreakoutUp_20D
20-day Donchian channel breakout confirmed by close and volume
Setup — what must already be true
- ADX trend strength is one of Trending / Transitional (HK: Trending / Transitional / Ranging)
- Donchian channel position is one of Near High / Above Channel
- EMA stack (5/10/20/50 alignment) is one of Bullish Full / Bullish Partial (HK: Bullish Full / Bullish Partial / Mixed)
- RSI regime is not Extreme Overbought
- Price vs EMA100/200 is one of Above Both / Between / Unknown
- Liquidity gate is Pass
Trigger — what fires the signal
- Donchian channel position is Above Channel
- Momentum trajectory (RSI + MACD direction) is one of Both Improving / Mixed
- Volume vs 20-day average ≥ 1.2 (HK: 1.2, SG: 1.3)
Trade box & conviction bar
- Entry: buy stop at 0.1 ATR offset
- Stop: chandelier trail (2.5 ATR)
- Target: trailing
- Conviction: BUY-grade at ≥ 55, STRONG at ≥ 75
📰 From the newsletter
- Issue #7-2 · Listening for the Wind — Trend tools answer two questions: where price is moving and whether that movement has enough strength to matter.
Live track record for this signal
- US Main (buy): 25% hit the 1-week target (n=8)
- AI · US Tech (buy): 0% hit the 1-week target (n=4, building sample)
- AI · Berkshire Mirror (buy): 33% hit the 1-week target (n=3, building sample)
- Hong Kong Main (buy): 60% hit the 1-week target (n=16)
- AI · HK Tech (buy): 100% hit the 1-week target (n=1, building sample)
- AI · HK Financials (buy): 29% hit the 1-week target (n=7)
- Singapore Main (buy): 71% hit the 1-week target (n=7)
- AI · SG Blue Chips (buy): 50% hit the 1-week target (n=2, building sample)
- Sector ETFs (buy): 100% hit the 1-week target (n=2, building sample)
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