AI · SG Blue Chips — Track record
Every elapsed decision is graded against what prices actually did — hit-rates and errors per signal family, plus the cost of the decisions this book chose not to take.
45 graded 2 pending
1W calibration 0.12 How far along the 1-week path a decision typically gets: the fraction of the decided move realized after one week, measured across this book's graded decisions. Feeds a bounded conviction adjustment back into future decisions.
Scorecard
Hit-rates per signal family.
| Signal family | Dir | n | Hit 1W | Hit 4W | Hit 12W | Med err 1W | Stop-first | Bias | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BreakoutUp_20D | buy | 5 | 60% | 0% | — | -1.3% | 0% | +2 | ● active |
| NoTrade (PROFIT_ARMED) | sell | 5 | 40% | 100% | — | — | 0% | -2 | ● active |
| PullbackBuy_VWAP | buy | 5 | 60% | 33% | — | -0.8% | 40% | +2 | ● active |
| FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | buy | 4 | 33% | 0% | — | -1.1% | 50% | 0 | ○ building sample (4/5) |
| FailedBreakout_Down_20D | sell | 4 | 100% | 100% | — | — | 0% | 0 | ○ building sample (4/5) |
| MomentumContinuation_Up | buy | 4 | 25% | 25% | — | -1.6% | 25% | 0 | ○ building sample (4/5) |
| MomentumContinuation_Up | sell | 3 | 100% | 0% | — | — | 0% | 0 | ○ building sample (3/5) |
| FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | sell | 2 | 100% | 50% | — | — | 0% | 0 | ○ building sample (2/5) |
| NoTrade (PROFIT_ARMED+RSI_DIV) | sell | 2 | 50% | 100% | — | — | 0% | 0 | ○ building sample (2/5) |
| NoTrade | sell | 2 | 0% | 50% | — | — | 0% | 0 | ○ building sample (2/5) |
| PullbackBuy_VWAP (PROFIT_ARMED+RSI_DIV) | sell | 2 | 100% | — | — | — | 0% | 0 | ○ building sample (2/5) |
| RallySell_BearTrend | sell | 2 | 100% | 100% | — | — | 0% | 0 | ○ building sample (2/5) |
| AnticipationUp_VCP | sell | 1 | 100% | — | — | — | 0% | 0 | ○ building sample (1/5) |
| BreakoutUp_52W (PROFIT_ARMED+RSI_DIV) | sell | 1 | 100% | — | — | — | 0% | 0 | ○ building sample (1/5) |
| MeanRevUp_LowerBand | buy | 1 | 100% | — | — | +0.0% | 0% | 0 | ○ building sample (1/5) |
| NoTrade (EMA10_BREAK+PROFIT_ARMED) | sell | 1 | 100% | — | — | — | 0% | 0 | ○ building sample (1/5) |
| NoTrade (from FailedBreakout_Down_20D) | sell | 1 | 100% | 100% | — | — | 0% | 0 | ○ building sample (1/5) |
Counterfactuals Counterfactuals grade decisions that were NOT executed — expired queues, no-chase rules, untaken optional trims — against what the market then did. They are kept strictly separate from the calibration cells above.
What the decisions we didn't take would have done.
- No-chase queue (queued a pullback instead of chasing) — 28 cases , median would-have 1W move +3.8% → verdict: cost
- Optional trims not taken — 16 cases , median would-have 1W move +0.6% → verdict: saved
- Anticipate slot (pre-breakout buy-stop) — 4 cases , median would-have 1W move -5.2% → verdict: saved
Counterfactuals are advisory evidence for the book's learnings reviews — never blended into the calibration cells.