AI · HK Financials — Track record
Every elapsed decision is graded against what prices actually did — hit-rates and errors per signal family, plus the cost of the decisions this book chose not to take.
3 graded 0 pending
1W calibration 0.18 How far along the 1-week path a decision typically gets: the fraction of the decided move realized after one week, measured across this book's graded decisions. Feeds a bounded conviction adjustment back into future decisions.
Scorecard
Hit-rates per signal family.
| Signal family | Dir | n | Hit 1W | Hit 4W | Hit 12W | Med err 1W | Stop-first | Bias | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BreakoutUp_20D | buy | 2 | 50% | — | — | -1.0% | 0% | 0 | ○ building sample (2/5) |
| BreakoutUp_52W | buy | 1 | 100% | — | — | -1.3% | 0% | 0 | ○ building sample (1/5) |
Counterfactuals Counterfactuals grade decisions that were NOT executed — expired queues, no-chase rules, untaken optional trims — against what the market then did. They are kept strictly separate from the calibration cells above.
What the decisions we didn't take would have done.
- No-chase queue (queued a pullback instead of chasing) — 4 cases , median would-have 1W move +1.8% → verdict: cost
- Optional trims not taken — 26 cases , median would-have 1W move +2.5% → verdict: saved
- Anticipate slot (pre-breakout buy-stop) — 1 case → verdict: n/a
Counterfactuals are advisory evidence for the book's learnings reviews — never blended into the calibration cells.