Total-Return Index 101.6 +1.0% (4W) Performance ›
Today's recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0939 | CCB - H SHS | 9.61 | NO ACTION | 9.61 | 9.46 | 9.62 (+0.1%) | 9.71 (+1.0%) | 9.62 (+0.1%) | China Construction Bank's conviction fell back from a one-day spike of, which technically fires a small profit-take, but every model horizon still sits at or above today's close, so we hold the full line on a tight stop into the Fed. Profit-take armed (T12_Progress 99.9, non-inverted 12wk) + tick (b) -%; HF-P55 lower tier (reverses our own 09-14 ADD within one session) -> 20% x = 400 -> nearest-lot = 0 (HF-P25/HF-P65 board-lot suppression); ledgered optional so the counterfactual grader prices the untaken 400. Stop HELD 9.46 (model 8.98), cushion 0.61 ATR. Pre-commit: settled close < 9.46 -> SELL (50%) market (L2/HF-P30 first-step trim). · news |
| 2888 | STANCHART | 238.00 | HOLD 600 | 238.00 | 236.73 | 236.66 (-0.6%) | 236.33 (-0.7%) | 232.58 (-2.3%) | Standard Chartered gave back 3.5% after this morning's 150-share trim filled at 244.60 and now sits just above its stop, but there is no confirmed break yet, so we hold the remaining and let the stop decide at tomorrow's close. PROFIT_ARMED suppressed as a T12-inversion artifact (Target_12Week 232.58 < close 238.00 by 0.99 ATR, Gain_ATR 1.72; HF-2/HF-P50); conviction is a genuine tick (b) but has no independent bearish basis -> DEFERRED (HF-P8), not suppressed. Stop HELD 236.73 (0.23 ATR cushion). Pre-commit re-test at 09-16 settled close: close < 236.73 with 12wk still negative -> L2 SELL 200 (30%, nearest 50-lot, risk leg -> round up) market; full exit only on a second confirming close (HF-P30). · news |
| 3968 | China Merchants Bank | 51.20 | HOLD 1,500 | 51.20 | 50.88 | 50.86 (-0.7%) | 50.95 (-0.5%) | 50.22 (-1.9%) | China Merchants Bank slipped 2.9% with the sector into the Fed, but no exit signal fired and it is still above its stop, so we hold and let the stop protect the gain. PROFIT_ARMED suppressed as T12-inversion artifact (Target_12Week 50.22 < close 51.20 by 0.79 ATR, Gain_ATR 2.05); conviction (-12) is not a tick. Stop HELD 50.88 (model 48.35), cushion 0.26 ATR. Pre-commit: settled close < 50.88 with negative 12wk -> L2 SELL 500 (30% -> nearest 500-lot; lot unverified per HF-P43) market. · news |
| 3988 | Bank of China | 5.95 | HOLD 4,000 | 5.96 | 5.83 | 6.01 (+0.9%) | 5.98 (+0.4%) | 5.93 (-0.4%) | Bank of China remains the book's biggest winner at about 9.5% above cost after this morning's trim, the divergence warning has cleared and conviction is edging up, so we trail rather than cut. Armed genuinely (Gain_ATR 3.78) with no fire tick: no other Exit_Warning code, conviction, tick (c) inversion 0.18 ATR below materiality. Stop HELD 5.83 (model 5.53; chandelier 5.87 noted), cushion 0.92 ATR. · news |
| 3328 | Bank of Communications | 8.02 | HOLD 1,500 | 8.03 | 7.77 | 7.96 (-0.8%) | 8.14 (+1.4%) | 8.09 (+0.8%) | Bank of Communications is back to its original-share line after this morning's-share trim filled at 8.16; the 4- and 12-week views remain above today's close, so the rest runs on its stop. Armed via T12_Progress 99.2 on a non-inverted 12wk (8.09 > 8.025), not fired: conviction (-13) is short of the 20-pt tick, RSI_DIV cleared. Flag: cumulative -44 over two sessions (deteriorating). Stop HELD 7.77 (model 7.68; chandelier 7.82), cushion 1.51 ATR. · news |
Outcome & track record
How accurate the calls have been.
50 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
5.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.
Signal-type track record How each signal *type* has performed across ALL of this book's past decisions — not a per-stock note. 'bias' is the conviction nudge (+/-) applied to a fresh signal of that type; n = sample size, hit_1w = share that hit the 1-week target. Reliable cells earn a boost; weak ones a haircut.
How each signal type has performed across this book's past decisions (aggregate, not per-stock) — and the conviction nudge it earns.
- FailedBreakdown_Up_20D (buy): 7 past trades, 71% hit the 1-week target → +4 conviction nudge.
- FailedBreakdown_Up_20D (sell): 19 past trades, 18% hit the 1-week target → -6 conviction nudge.
- NoTrade (sell): 5 past trades, 0% hit the 1-week target → -10 conviction nudge.
- ReversalDown_Overbought (sell): 5 past trades, 60% hit the 1-week target → +2 conviction nudge.
Portfolio & signals
Every name we scanned, and where it stands.
| Ticker | Name | Close | Signal The chart pattern the engine detected on this name. Hover a signal for its one-line definition; click it for the full setup/trigger rules, the trade box it produces, and the newsletter issue that teaches the underlying concept. | Action | Conv | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3968H | China Merchants Bank | 51.20 | PullbackBuy_VWAP | HOLD | 60 | 50.86 (-0.7%) | 54.03 (+5.5%) | 50.22 (-1.9%) |
| 0939H | CCB - H SHS | 9.61 | PullbackBuy_VWAP | HOLD | 56 | 9.62 (+0.1%) | 10.09 (+5.0%) | 9.62 (+0.1%) |
| 3988H | Bank of China | 5.95 | PullbackBuy_VWAP | HOLD | 56 | 6.01 (+0.9%) | 6.15 (+3.3%) | 5.93 (-0.4%) |
| 2888H | STANCHART | 238.00 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | HOLD | 50 | 236.66 (-0.6%) | 248.91 (+4.6%) | 232.58 (-2.3%) |
| 3328H | Bank of Communications | 8.02 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | HOLD | 46 | 7.96 (-0.8%) | 8.36 (+4.2%) | 8.09 (+0.8%) |
| 0388 | HKEX | 393.80 | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | AVOID | 51 | 394.73 (+0.2%) | n/a | 393.75 (-0.0%) |
| 2388 | BOC Hong Kong Holdings | 51.20 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | WATCH | 50 | 51.45 (+0.5%) | 54.39 (+6.2%) | 51.16 (-0.1%) |
| 0966 | China Taiping Insurance | 20.78 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | WATCH | 40 | 20.67 (-0.5%) | 22.49 (+8.2%) | 21.12 (+1.6%) |
| 2318 | Ping An Insurance | 53.05 | BreakdownDown_20D | AVOID | 33 | 53.35 (+0.6%) | 46.95 (-11.5%) | 52.81 (-0.5%) |
| 0005 | HSBC HDGS(USD0.50) HK O'SEAS | 159.60 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | WATCH | 28 | 159.74 (+0.1%) | 165.68 (+3.8%) | 160.75 (+0.7%) |
| 1299 | AIA Group | 76.05 | NoTrade | NO TRADE | 0 | 75.94 (-0.1%) | n/a | 79.74 (+4.9%) |
Archive
Earlier end-of-day records.
- 15 September 2026 0 acquire / 0 dispose EOD 2026-09-15 (hkfin)
- 14 September 2026 0 acquire / 3 dispose EOD 2026-09-14 (hkfin)
- 11 September 2026 1 acquire / 3 dispose EOD 2026-09-11 (hkfin)
- 10 September 2026 0 acquire / 3 dispose EOD 2026-09-10 (hkfin)
- 9 September 2026 0 acquire / 2 dispose EOD 2026-09-09 (hkfin)
- 8 September 2026 0 acquire / 3 dispose EOD 2026-09-08 (hkfin)
- 7 September 2026 0 acquire / 3 dispose EOD 2026-09-07 (hkfin)
- 4 September 2026 1 acquire / 3 dispose 1 ACQUIRE (queued) + 3 DISPOSE + 0 ANTICIPATE
- 3 September 2026 0 acquire / 2 dispose EOD 2026-09-03 (hkfin)
- 2 September 2026 0 acquire / 3 dispose EOD 2026-09-02 (hkfin)
- 1 September 2026 0 acquire / 3 dispose EOD 2026-09-01 (hkfin)
- 28 August 2026 1 acquire / 1 dispose EOD 2026-08-28 (hkfin)
- 26 August 2026 0 acquire / 0 dispose EOD 2026-08-26 (hkfin)
- 25 August 2026 0 acquire / 0 dispose EOD 2026-08-25 (hkfin)
- 21 August 2026 2 acquire / 0 dispose EOD 2026-08-21 (hkfin)
- 19 August 2026 3 acquire / 1 dispose EOD 2026-08-19 (hkfin)
- 18 August 2026 1 acquire / 2 dispose 1 ACQUIRE (0939 BUY @8.96, half-size) x 2 DISPOSE (3968 SELL FULL EXIT @48.00; 2888 SELL / 30% profit-trim @235.80); 0005 08-17 buy WITHDRAWN on conviction collapse
- 17 August 2026 1 acquire / 1 dispose 1 ACQUIRE (0005 BUY @163.50) x 1 DISPOSE (3968 SELL FULL EXIT @47.82); 2888 08-14 trim WITHDRAWN, stop held 228.47
- 14 August 2026 0 acquire / 2 dispose 0 ACQUIRE x 2 DISPOSE - FULL EXIT 3968 (, stop break + 4th NO TRADE) and profit-take of 2888 (conviction fired the written pre-commitment), both at the 08-17 open
- 13 August 2026 0 acquire / 1 dispose 1 DISPOSE x 0 ACQUIRE - RE-ISSUE the 50% trim of 3968 at the 08-14 open; mandatory trail-raise on 2888 223.61 -> 228.47
- 12 August 2026 0 acquire / 1 dispose 1 DISPOSE x 0 ACQUIRE - TRIM 3968 by 50% at the 08-13 open
- 11 August 2026 0 acquire / 0 dispose NO ACTION (0 ACQUIRE x 0 DISPOSE)
- 10 August 2026 0 acquire / 0 dispose NO ACTION (0 ACQUIRE x 0 DISPOSE)
- 7 August 2026 0 acquire / 0 dispose NO ACTION (0 ACQUIRE x 0 DISPOSE)
- 6 August 2026 1 acquire / 1 dispose EOD 2026-08-06 (hkfin)
- 5 August 2026 0 acquire / 1 dispose EOD 2026-08-05 (hkfin)
- 4 August 2026 0 acquire / 0 dispose NO ACTION (0 ACQUIRE x 0 DISPOSE) + 3328 queue withdrawn
- 3 August 2026 1 acquire / 0 dispose 1 ACQUIRE (QUEUED) x 0 DISPOSE
- 28 July 2026 0 acquire / 0 dispose EOD 2026-07-28
- 27 July 2026 2 acquire / 0 dispose EOD 2026-07-27