HK Financials — End-of-Day record | algo2alpha

Total-Return Index 99.5 -0.5% since inception Performance ›

Today's recommendations

0 to acquire · 0 to dispose

Ticker	Name	Close	Action	Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice.	Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice.	1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close.	4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close.	12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close.	Rationale
3988	Bank of China	5.45	BUY-STOP	5.43	5.13	5.45 (+0.4%)	5.53 (+1.8%)	5.46 (+0.6%)	Bank of China is on the watchlist but not bought. Its structural tests finally read clean -- the twelve-week view is above the price for the first time -- yet conviction has slipped to 54, one point under our threshold for the anticipation slot, and the reward on offer is roughly half a percent over twelve weeks against a 5.5% stop. That is not a trade worth taking the day before a Federal Reserve decision. Operational: kept the >=2-of-3 ANTICIPATE print gate (07-24 cv78, 07-27 cv76) but the anchor prints WATCH BreakoutUp_20D cv54 < the 55 anticipate floor; HF-3 passes (T12 5.46 > close 5.45 > entry 5.43, +0.55%) and HF-4 passes (Est_1W 5.45 >= entry 5.43); a buy-stop already through its trigger (ED -0.18) would fill at the 07-29 open INTO the FOMC, which the standing overlay warns against. Third consecutive session withheld. Re-arm: post-FOMC settled close printing ANTICIPATE/BUY at conviction >= 55 with Est_12W >= +1.5% above entry -> take the slot at 0.5x size. · news
2388	BOC Hong Kong Holdings	51.85	NO ACTION	51.98	47.98	52.56 (+1.1%)	51.75 (-0.4%)	51.74 (-0.5%)	BOC Hong Kong turned into a buy signal today, and we are not taking it. The stock is at a 52-week high with momentum readings in overbought territory, our valuation screen rates it expensive against its book value and it fails our quality test on profitability and cash flow, and the model's own twelve-week view is already below today's price. Buying a bank at its high, on an expensive multiple, into a flat forward projection is how this book has lost money before. Operational: quality gate is a HARD block on a new entry (Quality_Pass False, OVERVALUED_VS_RI, MoS -0.29 -> val_adj -1, adjusted conviction 73 which would otherwise clear the 65 floor); RSI 77.2 at the 52W high; Target_12Week 51.74 < close 51.85 (inverted, HF-3); MomentumContinuation_Up\|buy is this book's worst-graded cell (0/3, stop-first 1.0); label flipped straight out of two sessions of AVOID ReversalDown_Overbought (cv90, cv72). Rejected on four independent grounds. Re-arm: Quality_Pass TRUE (or the name becomes held) plus a stable BUY at conviction >= 65 with RSI < 72 and a non-inverted 12wk. · news
2888	STANCHART	222.80	HOLD	—	214.98	223.73	223.89	224.85	We are holding Standard Chartered through tomorrow's half-year results rather than trimming into them. The signal did weaken sharply today -- our conviction reading fell by 27 points and the shares slipped 1.4% to HK, leaving the position 2.6% below cost -- but the stock is still comfortably above our HKstop and above every major moving average, the model has not issued a sell, and the business itself is performing: record first-quarter profit, wealth income up 32%, return on tangible 17.4%, and full-year guidance reaffirmed. Selling a bank the day before it reports, on a signal wobble rather than a broken level, is the wrong side of the odds. Operational: PROFIT_ARMED fires again (T12_Progress 99.09) but is SUPPRESSED for a 5th session under HF-2's cost-inverted case -- Gain_ATR -1.12 and Target_12Week 224.85 < Avg_Cost 228.63, so tick (c) is the same inversion counted twice. Tick (b) DOES fire legitimately (conviction, -27) and is the first un-suppressed tick of the holding period, but HF-2 requires an independent bearish basis (decisive close < stop, or a fresh high-conviction formal SELL) and neither exists: close 222.80 = 1.50 ATR above the 214.98 stop, label HOLD, Sell_Rank blank. CLAUDE.md sec.9 catalyst-aware hold is literal here -- StanChart H1 results Wed 2026-07-29, band +-5.0% (+-1.83 ATR), horizon stance hold-through, stacked with FOMC (a hike widens HK deposit spreads = constructive). Today's high 225.60 < 226.00 is a lower high but the full 4-session range spans only 0.92 ATR = noise, not a confirmed breakdown. Stop HELD at 214.98 -- the scan re-printed 212.38, which is LOOSER, and we never loosen. No trail-raise: there is no profit to protect at -2.55%, and tightening into a +-5% print manufactures the whipsaw the optional_trim counterfactual (n=26, +2.53% median saved) warns against. HARD RE-TEST on the 07-30 post-earnings settled close: conviction <= 50 AND close below EMA20 221.07 AND Target_12Week still below close -> fire profit_take_2 = 50%; a decisive close below 214.98 fires the full stop-exit regardless. · news

Outcome & track record

How accurate the calls have been.

3 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →

0.184 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.

22 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.

Portfolio & signals

Every name we scanned, and where it stands.

Ticker	Name	Close	Signal The chart pattern the engine detected on this name. Hover a signal for its one-line definition; click it for the full setup/trigger rules, the trade box it produces, and the newsletter issue that teaches the underlying concept.	Action	Conv	1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close.	4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close.	12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close.
2888H	STANCHART	222.80	FailedBreakdown_Up_20D	HOLD	46	223.73 (+0.4%)	233.22 (+4.7%)	224.85 (+0.9%)
3328	Bank of Communications	7.50	BreakoutUp_20D	STRONG BUY	82	7.49 (-0.1%)	8.19 (+9.2%)	7.38 (-1.6%)
2388	BOC Hong Kong Holdings	51.85	MomentumContinuation_Up	BUY	74	52.56 (+1.4%)	59.97 (+15.7%)	51.74 (-0.2%)
0939	CCB - H SHS	9.13	ReversalDown_Overbought	AVOID	74	9.15 (+0.2%)	8.53 (-6.6%)	9.12 (-0.1%)
3988	Bank of China	5.45	BreakoutUp_20D	WATCH	54	5.45 (+0.0%)	6.01 (+10.3%)	5.46 (+0.2%)
3968	China Merchants Bank	49.76	BreakoutUp_20D	WATCH	44	49.89 (+0.3%)	54.07 (+8.7%)	48.43 (-2.7%)
0005	HSBC HDGS(USD0.50) HK O'SEAS	162.00	NoTrade	NO TRADE	0	159.67 (-1.4%)	n/a	167.19 (+3.2%)
0388	HKEX	404.00	NoTrade	NO TRADE	0	405.29 (+0.3%)	n/a	408.78 (+1.2%)
0966	China Taiping Insurance	22.00	NoTrade	NO TRADE	0	21.74 (-1.2%)	n/a	21.42 (-2.6%)
1299	AIA Group	77.90	NoTrade	NO TRADE	0	77.63 (-0.3%)	n/a	80.08 (+2.8%)
2318	Ping An Insurance	57.10	NoTrade	NO TRADE	0	56.71 (-0.7%)	n/a	59.00 (+3.3%)

HK Financials — End-of-Day Verdict

0 to acquire · 0 to dispose

How accurate the calls have been.

Every name we scanned, and where it stands.

Earlier end-of-day records.