Recommendations
1 to acquire · 2 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0388 | HKEX | 394.60 | BUY — QUEUED @385.97 | 385.97 | 366.39 | 399.34 (+3.5%) | 399.02 (+3.4%) | 385.99 (+0.0%) | HKEX printed a STRONG BUY breakout (cv85) on a +2.8% close. The model's own entry sits 1.1 ATR below the market, so we bid there rather than chase. Valuation is only mildly rich (MoS -0.77) and the quality gate passes. Ops: adj 85-4(val)-10(BreakoutUp_20D|buy bias, 0/6 hit) = 71, which clears the floor. HF-3: Est_12W 385.99 is below the close but equal to the entry, so the order is a queue-at-pullback, not a chase. HF-4 is clear (Est_1W 399.34 >= entry). Sizing 0.904 x HK x 20% = HK -> = HK. Q3 results are due ~11-06 (Yahoo), inside the queue window; a fill on a results dip is a pullback fill, and the stop is 366.39. Expires 11-10. · news |
| 0939 | CCB - H SHS | 10.48 | WATCH — queued order lapsed | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Queued buy @10.49 lapsed — closed 10.48 below the level; awaiting reprice at the next end-of-day run. CCB upgraded to STRONG BUY - ADD at conviction 90 (MomentumContinuation, from HOLD 72) on a fresh high close, so we pyramid the winner. Ops: the model's buy-stop is 10.56, but Est_1W 10.49 < 10.56, so HF-4 demotes it to a pullback limit at entry - 0.25 ATR (10.49). 77.96% x = 10,135 -> = HK. HF-3 is clear (Est_12W 10.60 > close). PROFIT_ARMED is the T12 artifact (true progress 84%, Gain 2.14 ATR < 3), so it is not armed. Stop ratcheted 9.87 -> 9.96. Expires 11-10. |
| 0005 | HSBC HDGS(USD0.50) HK O'SEAS | 141.10 | SELL 50% | 141.10 | 133.60 | 142.50 (+1.0%) | 143.09 (+1.4%) | 145.77 (+3.3%) | HSBC printed STRONG SELL - REDUCE (cv82, FailedBreakout_Down_20D) right after a +3.4% pop to 141.10, and HK sell signals have been this book's reliable cell. Sell half and bank +6% on the 133.00 fill. Ops: this is the 2nd consecutive non-bullish held print (NO TRADE -> SSR), which fires the 11-04 pre-commit SELL 400. The model asks 85%, but a single late-flipped print sizes at the lower tier (HF-P55 spirit), and the makes it. The Est_* path is mildly positive (+1-3%), so we keep the other lot. Residual stop 133.60 (printed, about breakeven). A 2nd SSR print -> SELL the last 400. · news |
| 3988 | Bank of China | 6.09 | SELL 33.3% | 6.09 | 5.67 | 6.08 (-0.2%) | 6.09 (+0.0%) | 6.09 (+0.0%) | BoC flipped to AVOID (bearish FailedBreakout_Down, cv62) on its 2nd straight non-bullish print, and the forward view is flat at every horizon (Est 6.08/6.09/6.09). Trim 30% into the +2.5% bounce. Ops: this fires the 11-04 pre-commit (consecutive_non_bullish = 2) as written (HF-P22). 30% of =. The count resets on the cut. Residual 4,000: stop 5.67; 2 more consecutive non-bullish prints -> SELL 1,000. |
| 3968 | China Merchants Bank | 54.35 | HOLD | 54.35 | 51.00 | 54.10 (-0.5%) | 54.26 (-0.2%) | 55.00 (+1.2%) | Hold CMB: HOLD conviction, close 54.35, back to cost (54.55). PROFIT_ARMED is the T12 artifact (Gain -0.12 ATR) and is suppressed. Re-arm to top up needs a BUY/BUY-ADD print. Stop ratcheted 50.99 -> 51.00 (printed). |
| 3328 | Bank of Communications | 8.63 | HOLD | 8.63 | 8.32 | 8.60 (-0.3%) | 8.62 (-0.1%) | 8.73 (+1.2%) | Hold BoCom: HOLD conviction, close 8.63 (+1.8% on cost). RSI_DIV + PROFIT_ARMED: the arm is the T12 artifact (true T12 progress 60%, Gain 0.63 ATR), so no profit-take fires and RSI_DIV alone (no valuation elevate, NA_CCY) is not a trim. Trail kept at 8.32 (printed 8.16 is lower). The pyramid re-arm needs a BUY-ADD at cv>=75. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
82 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.786 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
89 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.