Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0939 | CCB - H SHS | 9.92 | HOLD | 10.04 | 9.65 | 9.93 (-1.1%) | 9.96 (-0.8%) | 10.18 (+1.4%) | CCB broke to a 52-week high at 9.92 and conviction jumped (STRONG BUY-ADD), but the 1-week model (9.93) sits below the 10.04 buy-stop entry, so hold the line and do not add yet. Withheld add ( @10.04 gtc_stop) fails the written re-arm predicate (Est_1W >= Entry; HF-4, -1.1% material); provenance band 9.99-10.09 leaves no pullback level. Q3 results ~10-30: hold through, no post-earnings chase (L6). Arm T12-only (Gain 1.28) suppressed (HF-P50); tick (c) not fired. Stop 9.65 carried (1.33 ATR). Pre-commit: close < 9.65 -> SELL 3,000. |
| 3988 | Bank of China | 6.01 | HOLD | 6.01 | 5.86 | 6.03 (+0.3%) | 6.03 (+0.3%) | 6.19 (+3.0%) | Bank of China firmed 1% to 6.015 with conviction up and a 12-week view of 6.19, 1.15 ATR above its 5.86 stop, so hold the line. Arm T12-only (Gain 1.39) suppressed (HF-P50); tick (c) not fired. Printed stop 5.74 lower, not adopted. Pre-commits: close < 5.86 -> SELL 2,000; 2 consecutive NO TRADE -> SELL 2,000. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
75 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.786 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
89 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.