Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0939 | CCB - H SHS | 9.92 | HOLD | 9.92 | 9.65 | 9.92 (+0.0%) | 9.95 (+0.3%) | 10.16 (+2.4%) | CCB eased back to 9.92 and conviction cooled -> 61 (HOLD), but it sits 1.43 ATR above its 9.65 stop with a 12-week view of 10.16 and Q3 results due ~10-30/11-02, so hold the line through the event. Arm T12-only (Gain 1.38) suppressed (HF-P50); tick (c) not fired (10.16 > 10.12); tick (b) 13 pts vs 10-27 snapshot (not fired). 10-27 RSI_DIV cleared. Re-arm (BUY/STRONG BUY-ADD cv>=65, Est_1W >= Entry) not met. Pre-commit: close < 9.65 -> SELL 3,000. |
| 3988 | Bank of China | 6.04 | HOLD | 6.04 | 5.86 | 6.01 (-0.5%) | 6.07 (+0.5%) | 6.28 (+4.0%) | Bank of China held 6.04 (HOLD cv47) with a 12-week view of 6.28, 1.44 ATR above its 5.86 stop, so hold the line. Arm T12-only (Gain 1.69) suppressed (HF-P50); tick (c) not fired (6.28 > 6.16). Printed stop 5.79 lower, not adopted. Pre-commits: close < 5.86 -> SELL; 2 consecutive NO TRADE -> SELL 2,000. |
| 2318 | Ping An Insurance | 48.38 | NO ACTION | 48.38 | 46.91 | 47.82 (-1.2%) | 47.77 (-1.3%) | 49.15 (+1.6%) | Ping An printed a second oversold-bounce BUY (cv68, RSI 25.6), but both the 1-week (47.82) and 4-week (47.77) model estimates sit below the 48.38 entry, so the buy is withheld rather than bought on conviction alone. HF-4 material (-1.2%, beyond the band floor 48.17); written 2318 re-arm predicate (Est_1W >= Entry) unmet; HF-3 clears (Est_12W 49.15 > close). Would-be size @48.38 (26.5% x HK x 20% = HK -> 500-lot). Ledgered optional so the counterfactual prices the miss. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
75 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.786 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
89 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.