Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3968 | China Merchants Bank | 51.45 | SELL ALL | 51.45 | 51.97⚠ | 51.48 (+0.1%) | 51.64 (+0.4%) | 51.83 (+0.7%) | China Merchants Bank closed 51.45, below its 51.97 trailing stop, as conviction slid over four sessions, so the written stop pre-commit exits the one-lot line with a +4.3% gain on cost. Stop-discipline exit (ACTIVE HF-P22, no decisive qualifier; -0.40 ATR break; no ex-div, last ex 07-02). =, full exit. Reprice if open gaps >1.5%. Re-arm: BUY/STRONG BUY-ADD cv>=65 AND Est_1W >= Entry AND Est_12W >= 1.01x Entry -> gtc_stop @printed Entry. |
| 0939 | CCB - H SHS | 9.77 | HOLD | 9.77 | 9.65 | 9.79 (+0.3%) | 9.80 (+0.4%) | 10.00 (+2.4%) | CCB firmed to 9.765 with conviction rebounding, still above its 9.65 stop with a 12-week view of 10.00, so it stays held into Q3 results ~10-30. Arm T12-only (Gain 0.53) suppressed (HF-P50). Cushion 0.58 ATR. Pre-commit: close < 9.65 -> SELL 3,000. |
| 3988 | Bank of China | 5.95 | HOLD | 5.96 | 5.86 | 5.95 (-0.1%) | 5.99 (+0.6%) | 6.16 (+3.4%) | Bank of China's residual closed 5.955 after the 2,000 trim filled @6. above the re-based 5.86 stop on a HOLD cv41, so the line is kept on the stop. Cushion 0.71 ATR; printed 5.68 not adopted. Pre-commits: close < 5.86 -> SELL 2,000; 2 consecutive NO TRADE -> SELL 2,000. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
74 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.786 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
89 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.