Recommendations
2 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3968 | China Merchants Bank | 54.55 | BUY — QUEUED @54.57 | 54.57 | 50.99 | 54.58 (+0.0%) | 55.08 (+0.9%) | 54.87 (+0.5%) | China Merchants Bank printed the book's top signal, a STRONG BUY at conviction 100 on a 20-day breakout to a 52-week closing high, so reopen the line at half size at the printed 54.57. Half size because the 12-week estimate of 54.87 is only +0.5% above entry and Q3 results are not yet out. Written 3968 re-arm: cv>=65 MET, Est_1W 54.58 >= Entry MET, Est_12W >= 1.01 x Entry (55.12) MISSED by 0.25 (0.45%, 0.18 ATR), which is above the HF-P14 de-minimis band, so HF-P35's small-shortfall disposition applies (half size, limit). Size 90.4% x HKx 20% = HK x 0.5 =. gtc_limit rather than the printed buy-stop so an unseen Q3 gap-up cannot fill it (L6). Val NA (FV_Flag jump): val_adj 0, gate off. BreakoutUp_20D|buy 0/3 is report-only. Top-up re-arm in state. Reprice per L8 on a >1.5% gap. · news |
| 0939 | CCB - H SHS | 10.26 | ADD — QUEUED @10.24 | 10.24 | 9.87 | 10.21 (-0.3%) | 10.25 (+0.1%) | 10.41 (+1.7%) | CCB held its STRONG BUY-ADD on a second straight breakout close (10.26, conviction 82), but the 1-week estimate of 10.21 sits below the printed 10.29 entry, so the add is repriced to a half-size limit at 10.24 rather than bought through the trigger ahead of Q3 results. Supersedes the unfilled 10-@10.09 limit (low 10.10, missed by 0.01), which is outside the live provenance band 10.24-10.34; this replaces it, it does not stack. HF-4 material (Est_1W -0.78% vs Entry) -> demote, not veto (HF-P67), half size (HF-P35); 10.24 is the provenance-band floor because Est_1W 10.21 is outside it. Size 77.96% x = 7,016 x 0.5 =. Stop raised 9.66 -> 9.87 (printed; 1.84 ATR cushion). HF-3 clears (10.41 > 10.26). Reprice per L8 on a >1.5% gap. · news |
| 3988 | Bank of China | 6.14 | NO ACTION | 6.14 | 5.86 | 6.15 (+0.1%) | 6.12 (-0.4%) | 6.38 (+3.8%) | Bank of China held after today's add filled at 6.10 ( at a 5.95 blended cost, close 6.145), with a 12-week view of 6.38 and the stop 2.20 ATR away, so no trim one session after adding. Tick (b) did print (conviction, exactly -20), but the arm is T12-only with Gain 1.52 ATR on the blended cost (the scan's 2.45 used the pre-fill cost), so PROFIT_ARMED is SUPPRESSED under HF-P50, not deferred. Ledgered optional at the 30% tier so the counterfactual prices the hold. Printed stop 5.84 is lower; ratchet holds 5.86. · news |
| 3328 | Bank of Communications | 8.60 | HOLD | 8.60 | 8.32 | 8.59 (-0.1%) | 8.64 (+0.5%) | 8.70 (+1.2%) | BoCom's starter filled at 8.48 and closed 8.60 (+1.4%), so it is held at its target size with the signal unchanged. The BUY row is a scan race artifact (Flat, written 11 seconds before the fill booked) repeating the order already filled, and conviction is flat at 72, so no add. Printed stop 8.48 leaves only 0.57 ATR, under the 0.70 adopt floor (HF-P36), so the carried 8.32 stands. Pyramid re-arm: printed BUY-ADD on the real position with cv >= 75. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
75 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.786 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
89 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.