Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 3968 | China Merchants Bank | 53.00 | HOLD | 53.00 | 50.99 | 52.96 (-0.1%) | 52.90 (-0.2%) | 51.89 (-2.1%) | China Merchants Bank fell back to 53.00 on its first day in the book (bought at 54.55, -2.8%) after results were priced, and conviction dropped from, but the 50.99 stop is 1.19 ATR away, so the half-size line is held rather than cut after one session. The 12-week estimate of 51.89 is now below both the close and cost, so HF-6's non-inverted leg fails, but L2 needs a stop break as well and none occurred. Scan race: the row prints Flat/WATCH on shares owned; position figures are hand-derived. Printed stop 52.49 is a new-entry level with a 0.30 ATR cushion, under the 0.70 floor (HF-P36), so it is not adopted. Pre-commit: close < 50.99 -> SELL 3,500. Top-up re-arm carried. · news |
| 0939 | CCB - H SHS | 10.14 | HOLD | 10.14 | 9.87 | 10.08 (-0.6%) | 10.22 (+0.8%) | 10.33 (+1.9%) | CCB's 4,000 add filled at 10.24, then the stock traded up to 10.52 on Q3 results (profit reported +9.8%) and faded to 10.14, so the line is held at with the 12-week view at 10.33 and the stop 1.02 ATR away. Conviction fell, a genuine tick (b), but the arm is T12-only with Gain 1.14 ATR on the true 9.8385 cost (the scan's 1.81 uses pre-fill cost), so PROFIT_ARMED is SUPPRESSED under HF-P50, not deferred. The 10-30 re-test is answered: the arm did not become genuine and tick (c) stays co-fired. No independent bearish leg. Printed stop 9.61 lower; ratchet holds 9.87. Pre-commit rescaled: close < 9.87 -> SELL 4,000. · news |
| 3988 | Bank of China | 5.86 | NO ACTION | 5.86 | 5.86 | 5.84 (-0.3%) | 5.86 (+0.0%) | 5.97 (+1.9%) | Bank of China reversed from 6.23 to close at 5.86 (-4.6%) on 1.7x volume, landing exactly on its stop, and printed a first NO TRADE, so it is on notice but neither sell trigger has fired. The written triggers are a close BELOW 5.86 and a second NO TRADE; the settled close equals the level (low 5.845) and the NO TRADE count is 1. L2 also fails: Est_12W 5.97 is above the close. PROFIT_ARMED is suppressed (Gain -0.49 ATR, HF-P50). 'NoTrade_Reason: Consensus conflict + low conviction.' No ex-date found (HF-5) and no stock-specific cause found. Ledgered optional at the 30% tier so the counterfactual prices the hold; entry is the close because the row prints none. Pre-commits, not stacking: close < 5.86 OR 2nd consecutive NO TRADE -> SELL once. · news |
| 3328 | Bank of Communications | 8.52 | HOLD | 8.52 | 8.32 | 8.50 (-0.2%) | 8.54 (+0.2%) | 8.61 (+1.1%) | BoCom gave back 0.9% to 8.52 after touching 8.80 on Q3 results (profit reported +10.1%), still above its 8.48 cost, with a 12-week view of 8.61 and the stop 0.82 ATR away, so hold the line. Conviction cooled (HOLD), no tick (b). New PROFIT_ARMED is T12-only at Gain 0.16 ATR, suppressed with its co-fired tick (c) (HF-P50). Printed stop 8.03 lower; ratchet holds 8.32. Pyramid re-arm (Held row BUY-ADD cv>=75, Est_1W >= Entry) unmet. Pre-commit: close < 8.32 -> SELL 13,000. · news |
| 1299 | AIA Group | 75.40 | NO ACTION | 76.02 | 69.74 | 75.59 (-0.6%) | 75.50 (-0.7%) | 77.42 (+1.8%) | AIA was the book's only bullish print (BUY, Buy_Rank 1), but conviction 62 sits below the 65 floor and the 1-week estimate of 75.59 is below the 76.02 buy-stop, so no order is placed. HF-4 material (-0.57%, outside the de-minimis band). HF-3 clears (Est_12W 77.42 > close 75.40). Would-be size 26.5% x HKx 20% = HK -> 1,410 -> (, hand-quoted). BreakoutUp_20D|buy 0/3 report-only. Ledgered optional so the counterfactual prices the pass. Re-arm: BUY/STRONG BUY cv>=65 AND Est_1W_Point >= Entry_Price AND Est_12W_Point >= Close on a settled close. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
77 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.786 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
89 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.