Recommendations
1 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0005 | HSBC HDGS(USD0.50) HK O'SEAS | 134.10 | BUY — QUEUED @134.10 | 134.10 | 128.98 | 135.66 (+1.2%) | 137.89 (+2.8%) | 136.25 (+1.6%) | HSBC prints a fresh BUY at conviction 73 and Buy_Rank 1. It is an oversold bounce at RSI 28.8 after a two-week slide from ~163, and both the 1-week (135.66) and 12-week (136.25) estimates sit above the 134.10 entry, so this is not a falling knife. We buy at the printed entry with a 128.98 stop (-3.8%, 1.65 ATR). Gates: HF-3 non-inverted 12wk MET (+1.6% vs close); HF-4 Est_1W >= Entry MET (+1.2%); quality gate OFF on an NA_CCY row (gate passes NA_*, precedent 08-17/09-04); no cell for OversoldBounce_Up|buy, so bias 0; Entry_Distance 0.0 and close near the session low, so no chase. Size 26.5% x HKx 20% = HK / 134.10 =, x1.0 (NA). Limit at the printed entry per HF-P13. Third-interim ex-dividend ~11-05 per hk horizon (advisory). Single print: one signal only, so stability is low. Reprice per L8 on a >1.5% gap. · news |
| 3988 | Bank of China | 5.85 | SELL 33.3% | 5.85 | 5.86⚠ | 5.86 (+0.2%) | 5.86 (+0.2%) | 5.89 (+0.7%) | Bank of China closed below its stop for the first time (5.85 vs 5.86) and printed a second straight NO TRADE ('Consensus conflict + low conviction'), so the written pre-commit fires: sell at the next open. It is a first-step trim, not a full exit, because the 12-week estimate (5.89) is still above the close, so L2's negative-12wk leg is not met. Both 11-02 triggers fired at once and execute as ONE order (no stacking). The breach is marginal (0.17%, 0.06 ATR) but the comparator is strict per HF-P22. NoTrade|sell bias -8 not applied (HF-P28/P52/P63 phantom-grade caveat). Remaining 6,000 get a 5.67 stop (close - 1.0 ATR). Sector context: Q3 bank profits beat, the post-print rally reversed, and no source explains the BoC weakness. Valuation NA_CCY, so val_adj 0. · news |
| 3968 | China Merchants Bank | 52.25 | HOLD | 52.25 | 50.99 | 52.29 (+0.1%) | 52.20 (-0.1%) | 52.44 (+0.4%) | Hold CMB: close 52.25 is above the 50.99 stop, conviction is steady at 51, and no sell trigger fired. Second-day fade, -4.2% on 54.55 cost. PROFIT_ARMED at Gain -1.33 ATR is the T12 artifact and is suppressed (HF-P50). Pre-commit close < 50.99 -> SELL carried. |
| 0939 | CCB - H SHS | 10.11 | HOLD | 10.11 | 9.87 | 10.07 (-0.4%) | 10.20 (+0.9%) | 10.29 (+1.8%) | Hold CCB: closed 10.11 after an intraday low exactly on the 9.87 stop, which held. Conviction is flat at 51, so tick (b) did not fire. The PROFIT_ARMED print is T12-only at Gain 0.94 ATR and is suppressed (HF-P50). The ratchet stop 9.87 stays above the printed 9.53. Pre-commit close < 9.87 -> SELL 4,000 carried. |
| 3328 | Bank of Communications | 8.51 | HOLD | 8.51 | 8.32 | 8.50 (-0.1%) | 8.51 (+0.0%) | 8.61 (+1.2%) | Hold BoCom: close 8.505 vs 8.48 cost, conviction, and the stop 8.32 is intact. The PROFIT_ARMED print is T12-only at Gain 0.10 ATR and is suppressed. Pyramid re-arm (cv>=75 ADD) not met. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
80 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.786 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
89 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.