Recommendations
0 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2318 | Ping An Insurance | 52.00 | SELL ALL | 52.00 | 52.04⚠ | 51.82 (-0.3%) | 51.43 (-1.1%) | 50.87 (-2.2%) | Ping An closed below its stop on a fresh 52-week breakdown, with the engine at STRONG SELL - REDUCE and every forward estimate below the close, so the last lot is exited. L2 stop-break (52.00 < 52.04) + negative 12wk (Est_12W 50.87); fires the written 09-30 pre-commit (HF-P22). Engine 84.59% x = (HF-P25 round-up, risk leg). Break is marginal (0.05 ATR) but the label is a formal SELL, not NoTrade, so HF-P30 second-session rule does not apply. Realized ~-HKvs cost 52.85. · news |
| 2888 | STANCHART | 229.80 | SELL 50% | 229.80 | 218.46 | 229.91 (+0.0%) | 232.89 (+1.3%) | 226.07 (-1.6%) | StanChart closed 1.4% below its stop as conviction collapsed and the 12-week view turned negative, so half the line is cut and the rest rides a wider trail. L2 stop-break (229.80 < 233.10, 0.47 ATR) + Est_12W 226.07 < close; fires the 09-30 pre-commit SELL (trim first, HF-P30). PROFIT_ARMED is a T12-inversion artifact (Gain 0.17 ATR, HF-P50), suppressed. Remainder trail 218.46 (chandelier 232.60 - 2x7.07). Earnings 10-28 outside window. · news |
| 3968 | China Merchants Bank | 50.60 | SELL 33.3% | 50.60 | 50.16 | 50.53 (-0.1%) | 50.65 (+0.1%) | 51.26 (+1.3%) | CMB is up about 4% on the position, but conviction fell from in one session and the forward estimates are flat, so a third of the line is banked. Profit-take (ADR-0012): armed via T12_Progress 98.7 (non-inverted, Gain 1.77 ATR) + tick (b) conviction -22. Tick (c) excluded as the collinear T12 artifact (HF-P45/P51), so 1 tick -> 30% x = lot. Banks ~+HKvs avg 48.65. Remainder keeps stop 50.16. Churn caveat: the 09-30 ADD filled at 50.70 today (HF-P64 over-trim watch). · news |
| 0939 | CCB - H SHS | 9.56 | NO ACTION | 9.55 | 9.47 | 9.59 (+0.4%) | 9.44 (-1.2%) | 9.90 (+3.6%) | CCB fired a one-tick profit-take (conviction, but it ranked fourth behind two stop-break exits and a larger profit-take, so it is held and the trim is graded as a counterfactual. Armed via T12_Progress 96.5 (Gain 1.67 ATR, T12 9.90 non-inverted); 30% x = lot. Stop 9.47 held (chandelier 9.32); pre-commit close < 9.47 -> SELL 1000. · news |
| 3988 | Bank of China | 5.92 | HOLD 3,000 | 5.92 | 5.90 | 5.97 (+0.8%) | 5.90 (-0.3%) | 6.23 (+5.2%) | Bank of China is armed (Gain 3.55 ATR) but no tick fired (conviction -12, T12 6.23 alive, RSI_DIV cleared), so it is held on its trail. 09-30 trim filled 5.99 vs 5.92 close (saved 1.2%). Chandelier 5.73 < 5.90, so the stop stays 5.90 (0.15 ATR cushion). Pre-commit close < 5.90 -> SELL 1000. |
| 3328 | Bank of Communications | 8.22 | HOLD 500 | 8.22 | 8.05 | 8.25 (+0.4%) | 8.24 (+0.2%) | 8.28 (+0.7%) | BoCom fired a profit-take tick (conviction, but 30% of a-share odd lot rounds to zero (HF-P65) and a profit-take may not be a full exit, so it is a trail hold. Stop 8.05 held (chandelier 7.89). Re-arm counter reset 1/2 -> 0/2 (HOLD print). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
59 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
1.727 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
89 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.