Recommendations
1 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0939 | CCB - H SHS | 9.82 | ADD — QUEUED @9.68 | 9.68 | 9.30 | 9.86 (+1.9%) | 9.75 (+0.7%) | 10.30 (+6.4%) | CCB flipped from HOLD to STRONG BUY - ADD at conviction 82 in the book's most reliable family (PullbackBuy_VWAP), with a rising 12-week view (10.30, +6.4%) and a 1-week estimate above entry, so the book adds on a pullback to the model's 9.68 limit rather than chasing a close near the day high. OPERATIONAL: engine ADD 77.96% x = 1,559 -> board lot 1,000, nearest = (HF-P25). No-chase: Entry_Distance -0.74 ATR, close 9.82 vs high 9.85 -> QUEUED GTC limit (HF-P6: 0.74 ATR from close, inside 1.0 ATR). HF-3 clear (Est_12W 10.30 > 9.82), HF-4 clear (Est_1W 9.86 >= 9.68). Card stop = engine 9.30; the original line trails at 9.47 (armed, no tick -> chandelier raise 9.46 -> 9.47). Expires 10-06; withdraw if conviction < 65. · news |
| 3968 | China Merchants Bank | 51.50 | WATCH — queued order lapsed | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Queued buy @51.62 lapsed — closed 51.50 below the level; awaiting reprice at the next end-of-day run. CMB upgraded from three HOLD prints to BUY - ADD at conviction 72 on a PullbackBuy_VWAP signal, holding above EMA20/50/200 with a positive 12-week view (52.73, +2.4%), so the book rebuys the it trimmed on 09-28 at the model's own 1-week level. OPERATIONAL: engine ADD 43.88% x = 439 -> lot 500. HF-4 shortfall Est_1W 51.62 vs Entry 51.73 = -0.21% / 0.10 ATR, on the HF-P14 band edge -> HF-P35 'small' remedy: limit AT Est_1W 51.62 (inside Entry +/-0.25 ATR provenance band 51.46-52.00); the half-size leg cannot apply below one. Line stop 50.16 held (chandelier 49.57 below it; armed, no tick). Pre-commit close < 50.16 -> SELL carried. Expires 10-06. · news |
| 3988 | Bank of China | 6.09 | SELL 25% | 6.08 | 5.90 | 6.13 (+0.7%) | 6.02 (-1.1%) | 6.37 (+4.7%) | Bank of China is the book's biggest winner (+11.9%, 5.4 ATR above cost) and printed a fresh RSI divergence on top of its profit-armed flag, so the book banks a quarter of the line and trails the rest at 5.90. OPERATIONAL: ADR-0012 profit-take, armed (Gain_ATR 5.37, non-inverted T12 6.37 > 6.085) + tick (a) RSI_DIV; G1 does not protect (HOLD cv62 PullbackBuy, not a fresh Breakout/MomentumContinuation >= 80). 1 tick -> profit_take_1 30% x = 1,200 -> lot (rounded down, no risk leg, HF-P25). NA_CCY -> no valuation tier bump. HF-P64 over-trim caution noted: minimum lot-tier taken. Remainder 3,000 stop 5.90 (chandelier 5.875 below). · news |
| 3328 | Bank of Communications | 8.36 | HOLD 500 | 8.39 | 8.05 | 8.38 (-0.1%) | 8.40 (+0.1%) | 8.30 (-1.1%) | BoCom printed STRONG BUY - ADD cv82, but its 12-week estimate (8.30) sits below the close (8.36) and the book's written re-arm needs two consecutive BUY-ADD prints after four flip-flops, so the add is withheld one more session. OPERATIONAL: HF-P12 re-arm counter 0 -> 1/2 (Est_1W 8.38 >= 8.39 x 0.9975 ok, Entry within 1 ATR ok). HF-3 inversion -0.7% inside HF-P49 band -> queue-at-pullback branch on trigger. PROFIT_ARMED suppressed (inverted T12, HF-P50); RSI_DIV on a fresh MomentumContinuation cv82 -> G1 trail-raise only; tick (c) non-selecting (HF-P51/P66); odd lot. Stop 8.05 held (chandelier 8.035). |
| 2388 | BOC Hong Kong Holdings | 52.25 | NO ACTION | 52.25 | 51.75 | 52.11 (-0.3%) | 52.55 (+0.6%) | 52.73 (+0.9%) | BOCHK printed a fresh BUY cv72, but it fails the hard quality gate (F-Score/FCF screen) for new entries and its 1-week estimate sits below entry, so the book does not open it. OPERATIONAL: QP False blocks new entries (HF-P32/P57 gate kept hard); HF-4 Est_1W 52.11 < 52.25 (-0.27%); FailedBreakdown chase discounted (L1). Ledgered optional so the counterfactual prices the pass. |
| 2318 | Ping An Insurance | 52.75 | HOLD 500 | 52.75 | 52.04 | 52.64 (-0.2%) | 51.95 (-1.5%) | 51.64 (-2.1%) | Ping An's half-exit filled at 52.95 on 09-30; the label eased from STRONG SELL cv69 to AVOID cv58 and the close held above the 52.04 stop, so the remaining are held on that stop. PROFIT_ARMED suppressed (Gain_ATR -0.13, HF-P24). Engine Stop 54.32 is short-side (HF-P58) - ignored. Pre-commit close < 52.04 -> SELL 500. |
| 2888 | STANCHART | 244.40 | HOLD 400 | 244.40 | 233.10 | 243.77 (-0.3%) | 243.62 (-0.3%) | 238.90 (-2.3%) | StanChart holds at HOLD cv68 (+6.9%). The profit-arm is suppressed because the 12-week estimate (238.90) is below the close (HF-P50), and no sell label printed. Stop 233.10 held. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
58 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
1.727 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
89 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.