Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2318 | Ping An Insurance | 52.90 | SELL 50% | 52.90 | 52.04 | 52.87 (-0.1%) | 52.22 (-1.3%) | 53.30 (+0.8%) | Ping An escalated from AVOID to STRONG SELL - REDUCE at conviction 69, its 8th straight bearish print, with the close below EMA20/50/200 and a flat-to-negative 4-week estimate, so the book cuts half the position at roughly breakeven before the Golden Week Connect blackout. OPERATIONAL: fires the written 09-28 pre-commit (bearish print cv>=65 -> SELL 500, HF-P55 ladder half tier); engine Portion 84.59% not used (ladder sizes at the written tier; =). PROFIT_ARMED suppressed (Gain_ATR 0.06, HF-P24/HF-P1). Remainder keeps stop 52.04; pre-commit close < 52.04 -> SELL 500. FailedBreakout_Down_20D|sell n=3 report-only, no bias (HF-P63). · news |
| 3988 | Bank of China | 6.01 | HOLD 4,000 | 6.01 | 5.90 | 6.04 (+0.4%) | 5.96 (-0.9%) | 6.27 (+4.2%) | BOC stays a hold: armed winner (+10.6%, Gain 5.05 ATR) with no deterioration tick (conviction is -12, 12wk 6.27 above 1.02x close). Chandelier 5.87 below the recorded 5.90, so the stop is held. |
| 3328 | Bank of Communications | 8.24 | HOLD 500 | 8.24 | 8.05 | 8.24 (-0.1%) | 8.28 (+0.4%) | 8.24 (-0.1%) | BoCom is held: the 09-28 BUY-ADD lapsed back to HOLD 60, so the re-arm counter resets to 0/2. Tick (c) nominally fires (12wk 8.24 < 1.02x close) but is non-selecting on this book (HF-P51/HF-P66), and the line is a sub-board-lot odd lot a 30% tier cannot trade. Trail held at 8.05 (chandelier 8.048). |
| 3968 | China Merchants Bank | 51.10 | HOLD 1,000 | 51.29 | 50.16 | 51.21 (-0.2%) | 51.30 (+0.0%) | 52.48 (+2.3%) | CMB holds at conviction 62 above EMA50 with a positive 12wk (52.48); stop held 50.16 (cushion 0.99 ATR). Pre-commit close < 50.16 with Est_12W < close -> SELL 500. |
| 0939 | CCB - H SHS | 9.69 | HOLD 2,000 | 9.69 | 9.46 | 9.73 (+0.4%) | 9.63 (-0.6%) | 10.11 (+4.3%) | CCB holds at conviction 62, now on a PullbackBuy_VWAP print with a +4.3% 12wk; stop held 9.46 (cushion 1.29 ATR). Pre-commit close < 9.46 -> SELL 1,000. |
| 2888 | STANCHART | 242.80 | HOLD 400 | 242.80 | 233.10 | 240.45 (-1.0%) | 240.21 (-1.1%) | 236.65 (-2.5%) | StanChart holds with conviction up; PROFIT_ARMED is the inverted-T12 artifact (Gain 2.75 ATR, 12wk 236.65 < close) and is suppressed per HF-P50, so no trim. Stop held 233.10. Pre-commit close < 233.10 with Est_12W < close -> SELL 200. |
| 2388 | BOC Hong Kong Holdings | 52.00 | WATCH | 52.00 | 51.71 | 51.92 (-0.2%) | 52.03 (+0.1%) | 52.48 (+0.9%) | BOCHK stays WATCH 61, below the 65 floor and quality-gated for a new entry; not actionable. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
57 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
1.727 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
89 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.