Recommendations
0 to acquire · 2 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1299 | AIA Group | 73.75 | SELL ALL | 73.75 | 74.05⚠ | 73.76 (+0.0%) | 74.12 (+0.5%) | 76.45 (+3.7%) | AIA broke its stop a second time, closing 73.75 below 74.05, and the engine flipped to STRONG SELL - REDUCE (RallySell_BearTrend cv60) with the price under EMA20/50/200, so the remaining are exited. OPERATIONAL: 09-24 written pre-commit (HF-P22) 'close < 74.05 -> SELL'; HF-P30 first-step trim already taken 09-23 (-@75.10), so this is the confirming second session. Break 0.16 ATR. Est_12W 76.45 > close (strict L2 not met) - basis is the pre-commit risk leg + bearish label. NoTrade|sell -10 cell not applied (HF-P63). · news |
| 3968 | China Merchants Bank | 50.50 | SELL 33.3% | 50.50 | 50.16 | 50.66 (+0.3%) | 50.22 (-0.6%) | 50.07 (-0.9%) | CMB closed 50.50 below its 50.88 stop with conviction sliding and a 12-week estimate (50.07) below the close, so a first-step trim of locks gains on a +3.8% position. OPERATIONAL: 09-23 written pre-commit (L2 stop-break + neg-12wk, HF-P30 first step). Break 0.38 ATR. Remainder re-based to EMA50 50.16; pre-commit close < 50.16 with Est_12W < close -> SELL 500. PROFIT_ARMED is the T12-leg inversion artifact (Gain_ATR 1.86) - suppressed per HF-P50. · news |
| 2888 | STANCHART | 238.00 | HOLD 400 | 238.00 | 233.10 | 237.04 (-0.4%) | 236.40 (-0.7%) | 231.00 (-2.9%) | StanChart rebounded to 238 after the 200-share trim filled at 235.80, conviction back up, so the remainder holds on the 233.10 stop. OPERATIONAL: printed 226.30 below recorded -> held; cushion 0.84 ATR. Pre-commit close < 233.10 with Est_12W < close -> SELL 200. · news |
| 2318 | Ping An Insurance | 52.70 | HOLD 1,000 | 52.70 | 52.04 | 52.67 (-0.1%) | 52.05 (-1.2%) | 53.26 (+1.1%) | Ping An's AVOID label faded to conviction 43, below the 65 ladder bar, and the close 52.70 holds above the 52.04 stop. OPERATIONAL: AVOID row Stop_Price 54.46 > close ignored (HF-P58). Pre-commits: bearish print cv>=65 -> SELL; close < 52.04 -> SELL 500. Cushion 0.75 ATR. · news |
| 3988 | Bank of China | 5.98 | HOLD 4,000 | 5.95 | 5.85 | 5.97 (+0.3%) | 5.90 (-0.8%) | 6.13 (+3.0%) | BOC is armed (Gain_ATR 5.02) with no deterioration tick - conviction -4, no other warning, 12-week view 6.13 alive - so it rides on the 5.85 trail. OPERATIONAL: chandelier 2.0xATR off 6.04 high = 5.83 < 5.85 -> held; cushion 1.21 ATR. · news |
| 0939 | CCB - H SHS | 9.53 | HOLD 2,000 | 9.62 | 9.46 | 9.58 (-0.4%) | 9.41 (-2.2%) | 9.83 (+2.2%) | CCB eased to 9.535 with conviction but stays above the 9.46 stop with a positive 12-week view. OPERATIONAL: cushion 0.40 ATR - next name at risk. Pre-commit close < 9.46 -> SELL 1000. · news |
| 3328 | Bank of Communications | 8.19 | HOLD 500 | 7.99 | 7.99 | 8.16 (+2.1%) | 8.20 (+2.6%) | 8.09 (+1.3%) | BoCom's BUY - ADD lapsed back to HOLD 53, so the add re-arm resets and the odd lot holds on the 7.99 stop. OPERATIONAL: re-arm counter (HF-P12). Pre-commit close < 7.99 -> SELL 500. · news |
| 2388 | BOC Hong Kong Holdings | 51.15 | WATCH | 51.15 | 50.70 | 51.04 (-0.2%) | 51.09 (-0.1%) | 51.72 (+1.1%) | BOC HK sits at WATCH 33 and still fails the quality gate, so there is no entry. OPERATIONAL: re-evaluate only on a fresh BUY print passing the quality gate. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
55 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
1.727 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
89 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.