Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2888 | STANCHART | 236.00 | SELL 33.3% | 236.00 | 233.10 | 234.62 (-0.6%) | 234.38 (-0.7%) | 230.27 (-2.4%) | StanChart settled at 236.00, below the 236.73 stop, with the model's 12-week view (230.27) under the close and conviction sliding, so the written first-step trim fires. Valuation is NA_CCY (no amplify). OPERATIONAL: 09-23 pre-commit (L2/HF-P30 first-step trim, HF-P22 execute-as-written); marginal break 0.12 ATR -> trim, not full exit. PROFIT_ARMED is a T12-inversion artifact (T12 230.27 < close, Gain_ATR 1.24) -> suppressed per HF-2/HF-P50; ticks (b)/(c) add no size. Remainder 400 stop 233.10 (EMA50); pre-commit: settled close < 233.10 with Est_12W < close -> SELL 200. · news |
| 1299 | AIA Group | 75.80 | HOLD 600 | 75.80 | 74.05 | 75.76 (-0.1%) | 76.91 (+1.5%) | 79.06 (+4.3%) | AIA holds its remaining after the 800-share trim filled at 75.10; the close recovered to 75.80, above the 74.05 stop, and the 12-week view (79.06) is above spot. OPERATIONAL: 3rd consecutive NO TRADE ('Consensus conflict + low conviction'); no NT-count pre-commit remains after the 09-23 trim. Pre-commit: settled close < 74.05 -> SELL 600. · news |
| 2318 | Ping An Insurance | 53.25 | HOLD 1,000 | 53.25 | 52.04 | 53.29 (+0.1%) | 52.51 (-1.4%) | 54.01 (+1.4%) | Ping An prints a 5th bearish AVOID but at conviction 62, under the 65 bar, and the 53.25 close holds above the 52.04 stop. OPERATIONAL: HF-P55 ladder not fired (cv < 65); printed Stop 54.93 is short-side, ignored (HF-P58). Pre-commits: bearish print cv >= 65 -> SELL; close < 52.04 -> SELL 500. · news |
| 3968 | China Merchants Bank | 51.20 | HOLD 1,500 | 51.20 | 50.88 | 50.86 (-0.7%) | 50.37 (-1.6%) | 50.93 (-0.5%) | CMB held at 51.20, 0.33 ATR above its 50.88 stop; conviction edged. OPERATIONAL: Est_12W < close leg already true; pre-commit close < 50.88 -> SELL 500. · news |
| 3988 | Bank of China | 6.04 | HOLD 4,000 | 6.04 | 5.85 | 6.01 (-0.5%) | 5.94 (-1.7%) | 6.03 (-0.2%) | BOC is armed on a genuine 5.24-ATR gain with no real deterioration tick, so the trail is raised rather than trimmed. OPERATIONAL: tick (c) co-fires with the inverted 12wk (6.03 < 6.04) -> non-selecting (HF-2/HF-P50). Trail RAISED 5.83 -> 5.85 (2.0xATR chandelier off the 6.08 high; 1.66 ATR cushion). · news |
| 0939 | CCB - H SHS | 9.68 | HOLD 2,000 | 9.68 | 9.46 | 9.64 (-0.4%) | 9.55 (-1.3%) | 9.74 (+0.6%) | CCB steady at HOLD 57, close 9.68 over the 9.46 stop with a positive 12-week view. OPERATIONAL: printed 9.31 is below the recorded stop -> held. Pre-commit close < 9.46 -> SELL 1000. · news |
| 3328 | Bank of Communications | 8.28 | WATCH ADD re-arm | 7.98 | 7.99 | 8.27 (+3.6%) | 8.28 (+3.8%) | 8.19 (+2.6%) | BoCom prints BUY - ADD at conviction 77, but the 8.285 close sits 1.94 ATR above the 7.98 entry, too far for a real queue, so it stays a re-arm watch and the odd lot is held on a raised stop. OPERATIONAL: HF-P6 (queue within ~1 ATR of close) -> WATCH; re-arm counter (Est_1W 8.27 >= 7.98x0.9975). RSI_DIV+PROFIT_ARMED (Gain_ATR 3.54) tick (a) fires but 30% of a odd lot is sub-lot (HF-P25/P65, round DOWN, no risk leg) -> trail-raise 7.98 -> 7.99 (2.0xATR off the 8.30 high). Pre-commit close < 7.99 -> SELL 500. · news |
| 2388 | BOC Hong Kong Holdings | 51.25 | WATCH | 51.25 | 50.94 | 51.11 (-0.3%) | 51.74 (+1.0%) | 51.69 (+0.9%) | BOC HK is WATCH 37 and still fails the quality gate (Quality_Pass False), so there is no entry. OPERATIONAL: re-evaluate only on a fresh BUY print that passes the quality gate. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
54 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
3.037 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
89 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.