FailedBreakout_Down_20D
Recent breakout failed — price closed back below breakout level NOTE (audit 2026-07-07): requires_signal_history is not implemented and the setup∩trigger donchian intersection is Mid_Range-only — the signal detects bearish drift near highs, not a verified failed breakout; semantic rework tracked as a Tranche-B issue.
Setup — what must already be true
- Donchian channel position is one of Near High / Mid Range
- EMA stack (5/10/20/50 alignment) is one of Bearish Full / Bearish Partial / Mixed
- Liquidity gate is Pass
Trigger — what fires the signal
- Donchian channel position is one of Mid Range / Near Low
- Volume vs 20-day average < 1
- Momentum trajectory (RSI + MACD direction) is one of Both Deteriorating / Mixed
Trade box & conviction bar
- Entry: market
- Stop: market exit
- Target: none (exit-managed)
- Conviction: BUY-grade at ≥ 65, STRONG at ≥ 85 — a counter-trend family, so the bar is deliberately higher than the default 55/75
- Requires signal history — it watches how a prior signal on the same name resolved.
📰 From the newsletter
- Issue #7-2 · Listening for the Wind — Trend tools answer two questions: where price is moving and whether that movement has enough strength to matter.
Live track record for this signal
- US Main (sell): 67% hit the 1-week target (n=75)
- AI · US Tech (sell): 71% hit the 1-week target (n=9)
- AI · US Semiconductors (sell): 20% hit the 1-week target (n=5)
- AI · Berkshire Mirror (sell): 55% hit the 1-week target (n=101)
- Hong Kong Main (sell): 63% hit the 1-week target (n=128)
- AI · HK Financials (sell): 67% hit the 1-week target (n=6)
- AI · HK Semiconductors (sell): grading in progress (n=1, building sample)
- Singapore Main (sell): 74% hit the 1-week target (n=78)
- AI · SG REITs (sell): 63% hit the 1-week target (n=24)
- AI · SG Blue Chips (sell): 100% hit the 1-week target (n=5)
- Sector ETFs (sell): 44% hit the 1-week target (n=17)
See it live right now
- SPCX · Space Exploration Tech Corp in US Main — STRONG SELL - REDUCE at conviction 76 (chart with entry/stop/targets drawn)
- SPCX · Space Exploration Tech Corp in AI · US Space — AVOID at conviction 76 (chart with entry/stop/targets drawn)
- SPCX · Space Exploration Tech Corp in AI · US Tech — AVOID at conviction 76 (chart with entry/stop/targets drawn)
- GOOGL · Alphabet, Inc.- Class A in US Main — STRONG SELL - REDUCE at conviction 75 (chart with entry/stop/targets drawn)
- GOOGL · Alphabet Inc Cl A in AI · Berkshire Mirror — STRONG SELL - REDUCE at conviction 75 (chart with entry/stop/targets drawn)
- GOOG · Alphabet Inc Cl C in AI · Berkshire Mirror — STRONG SELL - REDUCE at conviction 75 (chart with entry/stop/targets drawn)