Recommendations
1 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3328 | Bank of Communications | 8.86 | ADD — QUEUED @8.83 | 8.83 | 8.37 | 8.85 (+0.2%) | 8.88 (+0.6%) | 8.99 (+1.8%) | BoCom upgraded to STRONG BUY - ADD (cv82, MomentumContinuation) after three straight high-conviction holds, and China's big banks rallied on solid Q3 results (BoCom profit +10.1%). We pyramid the winner at the model's entry. Ops: fires the 11-05 re-arm pre-commit (SBA cv>=75, Est_1W 8.85 >= Entry 8.83); HF-3 clear (Est_12W 8.99 > close 8.86). 77.96% x = 10,135 -> = HK. RSI_DIV is not armed (Gain 1.64 ATR) and does not block. Stop ratcheted 8.32 -> 8.37. Forward view is thin (+1.8% 12wk). Expires 11-12. · news |
| 3988 | Bank of China | 6.25 | HOLD | 6.25 | 5.97 | 6.26 (+0.2%) | 6.18 (-1.1%) | 6.23 (-0.3%) | Hold BoC residual: the scan flipped AVOID 52 -> STRONG BUY - ADD 92 (52-week breakout), but the model's own estimates sit below the entry, so we do not add. Ops: HF-4/HF-P2 withhold (Est_1W 6.26 < Entry 6.33) + HF-3 (Est_12W 6.23 < close 6.25); single-print flip, L1 breakout discount. Non-bullish count reset to 0 (SELL-1,000 pre-commit cancelled). Trail 5.67 -> 5.97 (printed). Re-arm: 2nd SBA print with Est_1W >= Entry and Est_12W >= Close. |
| 0939 | CCB - H SHS | 10.59 | HOLD | 10.59 | 10.09 | 10.52 (-0.7%) | 10.63 (+0.4%) | 10.67 (+0.8%) | Hold CCB: HOLD conviction 76 (AnticipationUp_VCP), close 10.59, +4.6% on the 10.12 average; the 11-06 pyramid is +1.0%. Not profit-armed on cost (1.80 ATR). Trail raised 10.02 -> 10.09 (printed); pre-commit SELL 7,000 below 10.09. |
| 3968 | China Merchants Bank | 54.40 | HOLD | 54.40 | 51.60 | 54.31 (-0.2%) | 54.20 (-0.4%) | 54.90 (+0.9%) | Hold CMB: conviction recovered (HOLD), close 54.40 at cost 54.55. Not armed (Gain -0.11 ATR). Stop ratcheted 51.13 -> 51.60 (printed). The top-up re-arm needs a BUY/BUY-ADD print with Est_1W >= Entry. |
| 0388 | HKEX | 384.40 | HOLD | 384.40 | 366.39 | 386.34 (+0.5%) | 385.69 (+0.3%) | 385.49 (+0.3%) | Hold HKEX: 2nd straight NO TRADE (consensus conflict), close 384.40 vs the 385.97 fill (-0.4%). No exit leg fires: the stop 366.39 is intact (2.3 ATR cushion), the 12wk estimate is flat, not inverted, and NoTrade|sell is 1/8. HF-6 hold. Sell on a settled close below 366.39. |
| 0005 | HSBC HDGS(USD0.50) HK O'SEAS | 137.30 | HOLD | 137.30 | 133.60 | 139.40 (+1.5%) | 138.96 (+1.2%) | 140.40 (+2.3%) | Hold HSBC residual: AVOID cv62 (bearish FailedBreakout_Down) but not a SELL-REDUCE, and the engine sizes it at 0%. Estimates are mildly positive (+1-2%). Close 137.30, +3.2% on cost. Exit on a settled close below 133.60 or a SELL-REDUCE print (the printed 144.11 sell-side stop is ignored). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
86 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
1.105 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
89 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.