AI · HK Financials — Trades

Standard Chartered is almost 8% above our cost and, for a third straight session, every model horizon - one, four and twelve weeks - sits below today's price, so we bank a small slice ahead of the Fed decision and the Hong Kong rate follow on 17 September. The breakout signal is strong, which is why this is the minimum trim and keep running behind a raised stop. OPERATIONAL: BreakoutUp_20D STRONG BUY - ADD cv90 (trail ->, Exit_Warning PROFIT_ARMED, Gain_ATR 3.94 (genuine arm), +7.86%. FIRED tick (c) only: Target_12Week 244.31 < 1.02xClose and the inversion HK = 0.502 ATR clears the 0.5-ATR materiality line (HF-P66, promoted) by a hair; G1-softened does not protect (c); G3 does not protect (12wk negative). 1 tick -> 30%. HF-P54 ORIGINATION WEAKENED (engine flipped HOLD cv61 -> STRONG BUY-ADD cv90) -> supersede at lower tier 20% = ( of 50). SUPERSEDES the unexecuted 09-11 SELL 200 (invalid token market_next_open); does not stack. Proceeds HKrealised +HKvs cost 228.63. Stop RAISED 233.48 -> 236.73 (model; chandelier 237.47), cushion 2.16 ATR. Valuation NA_CCY -> 0. BreakoutUp_20D|sell n=1 report-only -> bias 0. Est 1wk -0.32% / 4wk -2.21% / 12wk -0.93%. COUNTER: engine bullish cv90, marginal tick, HF-P64 over-trim record -> lower tier. Cross-book: parent hk ADDS @245.87 tonight. · news

decided @ 246.60 · stop 236.73 · t1w 245.82 · t4w 241.16 · t12w 244.31

Bank of Communications printed another 52-week high, but its buy conviction collapsed from in one session and momentum is diverging at the most overbought reading in the book (RSI 73.6), so we sell back the lot added this morning at a small gain and keep the original 1,500-share line running behind a raised stop. The four- and twelve-week views are still mildly positive, which is why this returns the position to its pre-add size rather than cutting deeper. OPERATIONAL: MomentumContinuation_Up [BUY] HOLD cv59 (trail ->, Exit_Warning RSI_DIV,PROFIT_ARMED, close 8.16 = High_52W, Entry_Distance_ATR -0.29, Trend 100. Live cost 7.728 after the 09-14 fill (scan row shows stale 7.50/1,500 - race) -> Gain_ATR 2.53; arm from T12_Progress 99.51 on a NON-inverted Target_12Week (8.20 > 8.16) -> genuine per HF-P45, not suppressed. FIRED 2 genuine ticks: (a) RSI_DIV not G1-downgraded (cv59 < 80); (b) conviction -31. Tick (c) not fired. profit_take_2 50% x 2,500 = 1,250 -> nearest 1,000-lot 1,000; HF-P55 lower tier 30% = 750 -> also 1,000. -> (40%), remaining 1,500. Proceeds HKrealised +HKvs avg 7.728 (the 8.07 add round-trips ~+1.1%). Stop RAISED 7.75 -> 7.77 (model; chandelier 7.818), cushion 2.28 ATR. Valuation NA_CCY -> 0. MomentumContinuation_Up|sell n=1 report-only -> 0. Est 1wk -0.61% / 4wk +1.10% / 12wk +0.49%. COUNTER: HF-P64 names 3328 as the book's clearest over-trim; disclosed - tonight's basis is two genuine ticks, not tick (c). · news

decided @ 8.16 · stop 7.77 · t1w 8.11 · t4w 8.25 · t12w 8.20

Bank of China is our biggest winner at nearly 12% above cost and the most stretched name in the book, and tonight it added a momentum-divergence warning while conviction slipped, so we bank the minimum one-fifth and let run behind a raised stop. The model sees roughly flat prices over one to twelve weeks, so there is little forward reward being given up. OPERATIONAL: FailedBreakdown_Up_20D [WATCH] HOLD cv50 (trail ->, Exit_Warning RSI_DIV,PROFIT_ARMED (RSI_DIV new), RSI 70.90, VWAP +5.34%, Gain_ATR 4.90. FIRED tick (a) RSI_DIV (no G1 protection - FailedBreakdown family, cv50); tick (c) inversion 0.015 = 0.11 ATR below materiality, not counted; (b) -11 no. 1 tick -> 30% x 5,000 = 1,500 = 1. tie, no risk leg -> round DOWN (HF-P25) -> (20%). HF-P54 ORIGINATION STRONGER (09-11 basis was tick (c) alone) -> re-issue same size, repriced to live anchor; SUPERSEDES the unexecuted 09-11 SELL @6.045 (invalid token market_next_open); does not stack. Proceeds HKrealised +HKStop RAISED 5.79 -> 5.83 (model; chandelier 5.822), cushion 1.94 ATR. Valuation NA_CCY -> 0. Scorecard FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|sell -5 (n=18, hit_1w 0.25) -> adj 45; argues against the card and is phantom-contaminated per HF-P63 - disclosed. Est 1wk +0.41% / 4wk -0.25% / 12wk -0.25%. · news

decided @ 6.08 · stop 5.83 · t1w 6.11 · t4w 6.07 · t12w 6.07

Bank of Communications closed at a genuine 52-week high on the strongest trend reading in the book, and we are stepping back in with a disciplined limit rather than chasing the breakout. The bank trades on a single-digit earnings multiple with Beijing's recapitalisation of the big state lenders behind it, and the model's four-week and twelve-week views both sit above the breakout level, so the medium-term case supports adding - but the one-week view does not, which is why this is a pullback order and not a market buy. OPERATIONAL: signal BreakoutUp_52W [STRONG BUY] cv90, Buy_Rank 1, 77.96, Trend pillar 100, Regime Trending, close 8.09 = High_52W 8.09 exactly, above EMA20/50/100/200, VWAP +4.27%. HF-4 FIRES (Est_1W_Point 8.06 < the printed 8.12 buy-stop = LOW_QUALITY_ENTRY) and is applied AS WRITTEN - demote to a pullback QUEUE, not veto - so the buy-stop becomes a GTC limit at 8.07, the floor of the Entry_Price +-0.25xATR provenance band (8.074-8.166) and the level at which the one-week estimate no longer contradicts the fill. HF-3 non-inversion gate PASSES (Est_12W +0.62% vs close). Signal family upgraded off MomentumContinuation_Up (this book's 0-for-3, stop-first 1.0 cell) onto BreakoutUp_52W (1-for-1, report-only so bias 0). Volume: 77.96% x 1,500 = 1,169 -> HK board lot 1,000 ->; cost HK = 0.47% of the HKdry. Valuation NA_CCY -> val_adj 0, size x1.0, quality gate off (and it would never block an ADD). Stop RAISED 7.72 -> 7.75 (tonight's model stop; chandelier 7.723 and carried 7.72 both lower); risk 0.32/sh = 1.74 ATR. COUNTER-CASE DISCLOSED: RSI 71.70 rising, a printed RSI_DIV, and a fired profit-take tick (c) on the identical row, into a tighten-trail horizon - answered by the order's structure, a limit BELOW the market expiring 2026-09-16, the last HK session before the FOMC, so a fill is never carried into the Fed on a chased price. Counterfactual disclosed: no_chase_queue n=9, +4.97% median wh_1w [cost] - the price of the 09-09 and 09-10 flat rejections. · news

decided @ 8.07 · stop 7.75 · t1w 8.06 · t4w 8.18 · t12w 8.14

China Construction Bank has reached 98.5% of the model's twelve-week objective at a +3.9% gain, and it is by some distance the most event-exposed name in this book: China's August inflation print lands tomorrow morning, with the credit data, the activity data and the loan-rate fixing all inside the next nine sessions. With less than 0.8 ATR of room to the stop in front of that, we take a third off and carry the balance through the data. Stated plainly, this is a trim taken for exposure rather than for deterioration - the model still sees upside from here and the name was today's only holding to close green - so it is sized at the minimum tier. Operational: the arm is GENUINE, not the 2888/3968 inversion artifact (T12_Progress 98.46 with Est_12W 9.71 = +1.57% NON-inverted, so HF-2 suppression is inapplicable; Gain_ATR 1.44 is below the 3.0 bar, which is why the T12 leg had to be checked). ONE fire tick, and the weak one: (c) 9.71 < 1.02x9.56 = 9.7512, by only 0.42%. Tick (b) fires the OTHER way - conviction ROSE, the only holding to gain conviction tonight. profit_take_1 = 30%. Volume: 30% x 3,000 = 900, below one 1,000-share board lot, rounded UP to the minimum executable lot = 1,000 (33.3% effective, +3.3pp tier overshoot, disclosed). Valuation silent (NA_CCY); bias 0. Stop 9.37 UNCHANGED = max(live 9.37, engine 9.06, chandelier 9.061), cushion 1.99% / 0.76 ATR. Most defeasible card in the verdict: counterfactual optional_trim n=86 [saved] argues directly against it, and a dispersion-aware tick (c) would not have fired it at all. Residual. L8: executes at the 2026-09-09 open. · news

decided @ 9.56 · stop 9.37 · t1w 9.58 · t4w 9.69 · t12w 9.71

Bank of Communications is 99.4% of the way to the model's twelve-week objective at a +4.8% gain, with a forward view that is now flat rather than rising and conviction drifting lower for a second session. It is the smallest line in the book, it has the widest stop cushion, and we take the minimum profit-take tier off ahead of a fortnight carrying China inflation, US CPI and the Fed. Nothing here is bearish - the twelve-week estimate is still marginally above the price - this simply banks part of a completed move. Operational: arm GENUINE (T12_Progress 99.37 with Est_12W 7.91 = +0.64% NON-inverted, HF-2 inapplicable). ONE fire tick: (c) 7.91 < 1.02x7.86 = 8.0172; (b) cv = -4, below the bar; (a) and (d) do not fire. profit_take_1 = 30%. LOT OVERSHOOT DISCLOSED: 30% x 2,500 = = 0.75 of a board lot - flooring executes nothing (the 'never got cut' failure mode), so tonight's uniform rule is nearest lot with a floor of one lot, giving = 40% EFFECTIVE, a third above the intended tier. That is a sizing-fidelity defect in the lot logic, not a judgement, and it is filed as a systemic finding. Valuation silent (NA_CCY, no tier bump); bias 0. Stop 7.61 UNCHANGED = max(live 7.61, engine 7.51, chandelier 7.508), cushion 3.18% / 1.42 ATR, widest in the sleeve. F-Score 3 on tonight's refetch is the weakest in the book - advisory only, valuation never originates a sell. Residual. L8: executes at the 2026-09-09 open. · news

decided @ 7.86 · stop 7.61 · t1w 7.85 · t4w 7.90 · t12w 7.91

Bank of China is our best-performing holding, up 8.7% and 3.3 ATR above cost - the largest gain in the book - and it has now reached the model's twelve-week price objective. We take a fifth of the position off at the top of the range and keep four-fifths running in what is still a clean uptrend, ahead of the 17 September Fed and HKMA decisions. This is the thinnest of tonight's two trims and we say so: the one-week and four-week views are both still positive. Operational: armed on Gain_ATR 3.32 (highest in book) + T12_Progress 100.25 - the most genuine arm in the sleeve. Fires on tick (c) alone and only by -0.25% (Est_12W 5.90 vs close 5.915) while Est_1W and Est_4W are both +0.42%; tick (b) does not fire, cv ROSE. Ships because ADR-0012 forbids rendering a fired profit-take as optional prose, not because the tick is strong. profit_take_1 30% -> -> board lot 1,000 -> exact 1.5-lot tie rounded DOWN to 1,000 (20%). Stop HELD 5.79 by ratchet - model stop 5.62 and chandelier 5.63 are both lower and a stop is never walked down on a winner. val_adj 0 (NA_CCY), bias 0 (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|sell n=11 hit_1w 0.50, actionable neutral). · news

decided @ 5.92 · stop 5.79 · t1w 5.94 · t4w 5.94 · t12w 5.90

China Construction Bank has reached 98.5% of the model's twelve-week objective at a +3.9% gain, and it is by some distance the most event-exposed name in this book: China's August inflation print lands tomorrow morning, with the credit data, the activity data and the loan-rate fixing all inside the next nine sessions. With less than 0.8 ATR of room to the stop in front of that, we take a third off and carry the balance through the data. Stated plainly, this is a trim taken for exposure rather than for deterioration - the model still sees upside from here and the name was today's only holding to close green - so it is sized at the minimum tier. Operational: the arm is GENUINE, not the 2888/3968 inversion artifact (T12_Progress 98.46 with Est_12W 9.71 = +1.57% NON-inverted, so HF-2 suppression is inapplicable; Gain_ATR 1.44 is below the 3.0 bar, which is why the T12 leg had to be checked). ONE fire tick, and the weak one: (c) 9.71 < 1.02x9.56 = 9.7512, by only 0.42%. Tick (b) fires the OTHER way - conviction ROSE, the only holding to gain conviction tonight. profit_take_1 = 30%. Volume: 30% x 3,000 = 900, below one 1,000-share board lot, rounded UP to the minimum executable lot = 1,000 (33.3% effective, +3.3pp tier overshoot, disclosed). Valuation silent (NA_CCY); bias 0. Stop 9.37 UNCHANGED = max(live 9.37, engine 9.06, chandelier 9.061), cushion 1.99% / 0.76 ATR. Most defeasible card in the verdict: counterfactual optional_trim n=86 [saved] argues directly against it, and a dispersion-aware tick (c) would not have fired it at all. Residual. L8: executes at the 2026-09-09 open. · news

decided @ 9.56 · stop 9.37 · t1w 9.58 · t4w 9.69 · t12w 9.71

Bank of Communications is 99.4% of the way to the model's twelve-week objective at a +4.8% gain, with a forward view that is now flat rather than rising and conviction drifting lower for a second session. It is the smallest line in the book, it has the widest stop cushion, and we take the minimum profit-take tier off ahead of a fortnight carrying China inflation, US CPI and the Fed. Nothing here is bearish - the twelve-week estimate is still marginally above the price - this simply banks part of a completed move. Operational: arm GENUINE (T12_Progress 99.37 with Est_12W 7.91 = +0.64% NON-inverted, HF-2 inapplicable). ONE fire tick: (c) 7.91 < 1.02x7.86 = 8.0172; (b) cv = -4, below the bar; (a) and (d) do not fire. profit_take_1 = 30%. LOT OVERSHOOT DISCLOSED: 30% x 2,500 = = 0.75 of a board lot - flooring executes nothing (the 'never got cut' failure mode), so tonight's uniform rule is nearest lot with a floor of one lot, giving = 40% EFFECTIVE, a third above the intended tier. That is a sizing-fidelity defect in the lot logic, not a judgement, and it is filed as a systemic finding. Valuation silent (NA_CCY, no tier bump); bias 0. Stop 7.61 UNCHANGED = max(live 7.61, engine 7.51, chandelier 7.508), cushion 3.18% / 1.42 ATR, widest in the sleeve. F-Score 3 on tonight's refetch is the weakest in the book - advisory only, valuation never originates a sell. Residual. L8: executes at the 2026-09-09 open. · news

decided @ 7.86 · stop 7.61 · t1w 7.85 · t4w 7.90 · t12w 7.91

Bank of China is still the book's biggest winner at +8.0%, but the trend has gone flat: the twelve-week model view now sits essentially on top of the current price, conviction has drifted lower for a second session, and the stop is only 0.6 ATR below the market with no room left to trail. We bank a further ~29% of the position into a dense macro fortnight - China inflation lands tomorrow and the Fed decides on 17 September - and hold the rest. This is a profit-take into a fading trend, not an exit; the signal is not bearish. Operational: armed genuinely on Gain_ATR 3.03 vs a real cost of 5.44 (HF-2 inapplicable, Est_12W +0.26% non-inverted); ONE fire tick only - (c) dead forward view, 5.89 < 1.02x5.875 = 5.9925 - so profit_take_1 = 30% minimum tier; (a) no (RSI_DIV cleared 09-07), (b) cv = -4, below the 20pt bar, (d) no. Volume 30% x 7,000 = 2,100 rounded to nearest 1,000-share board lot = 2,000 (28.6% effective). Valuation silent (NA_CCY, val_adj 0, no tier bump); bias 0 on FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|sell (n=8, hit_1w 0.50). Stop 5.79 UNCHANGED = max(live 5.79, engine 5.59, chandelier 5.588), cushion 1.45% / 0.59 ATR, tightest in the book. Caveat disclosed: tick (c) fired 5-of-5 across the sleeve for an 8th consecutive session and is non-selecting for HK banks; counterfactual optional_trim n=86 median +5.96% wh_4w [saved] argues against. Residual. L8: executes at the 2026-09-09 open; reprice if the open gaps >~1.5%. · news

decided @ 5.88 · stop 5.79 · t1w 5.90 · t4w 5.90 · t12w 5.89

Bank of Communications is 99.6% of the way to its twelve-week objective at a +5.1% gain, so we take a further ~29% off and hold the rest. This is the smallest and least-supported card in the verdict and is ranked last for that reason. The arm is GENUINE - T12_Progress 99.62 with a NON-inverted Est_12W (7.91 vs 7.88, +0.38%), HF-2 inapplicable. ONE tick, and it is the weak one: (c) Target_12Week 7.91 < 1.02 x 7.88 = 8.0376. (a) does NOT fire - RSI_DIV CLEARED overnight (it drove 09-04's 50% tier), row now prints PROFIT_ARMED alone; (b) does not fire - conviction is -14, below the 20-pt bar, the only holding whose conviction did not break; (d) does not fire. 1 tick -> profit_take_1 = 30%, the minimum tier. STATED PLAINLY: this card rests entirely on tick (c), which fired again tonight and which this book's systemic findings have called non-selecting for four sessions; RSI has cooled 72.7 -> 65.6. If tick (c) were correctly specified for low-dispersion names this card would not fire at all - it ships because the rule is the rule, at the minimum tier, on the book's smallest position. Valuation NA_CCY -> 0, no tier bump. Bias 0. Action price 7.88 = anchor close = Entry_Price exactly. Volume: 30% x 3,500 = 1,050 -> board lot 1,000, FLOORED not rounded up -> = 28.6% effective = HKrealised +HKvs cost 7.50; residual 2,500. STOP 7.61 UNCHANGED = max(live 7.61, engine 7.51, chandelier 7.512); cushion 3.43% / 1.47 ATR, the WIDEST in the sleeve - another reason for the minimum tier. L8: executes at the 2026-09-08 open. · news

decided @ 7.88 · stop 7.61 · t1w 7.86 · t4w 7.96 · t12w 7.91

China Merchants Bank is up 9.7% on our cost and closed at an overbought RSI 77, while the model's twelve-week view has quietly slipped below today's price. We are taking a quarter off the table and raising the stop sharply behind the rest. Note this is a much SMALLER trim than yesterday's, and deliberately so. SUPERSEDES the unfilled 09-03 card (SELL @51.90) - that card was sized to a formal STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv72 at Sell_Rank #1, and that label is GONE: the row flipped overnight to STRONG BUY - ADD cv90 on BreakoutUp_20D, the most violent reversal in the book. With the formal sell origination withdrawn, the 50% tier it earned goes with it; what survives is the ADR-0012 arm alone. Armed on the genuine leg: Gain_ATR 3.81 >= 3.0 on a real cost 48.65 (+9.66%). ONE tick: (c) dead forward view, Target_12Week 53.05 < 1.02 x 53.35 = 54.417. Tick (a) no second Exit_Warning code (PROFIT_ARMED standalone); (b) conviction ROSE; (d) no NO TRADE prints. 1 tick -> profit_take_1 = 30%; G1 cannot block it because tick (c) fires regardless of a fresh breakout. 30% of 2,000 =, rounded DOWN to the 500-share board lot = (25% effective). Valuation silent (NA_CCY -> val_adj 0). Scorecard: BreakoutUp_20D (PROFIT_ARMED)|sell is n=2 report-only -> bias 0. Action price 53.35 = anchor close; the printed Entry_Price 52.89 is a BUY-stop whose band is 52.58-53.20, so the close sits just above it - for a sell-at-open the close is the correct market reference and is stated as such, not invented. Volume = HKproceeds, realised +HK; residual 1,500. Stop RAISED 49.59 -> 50.88 (max of live 49.59, engine 50.42, chandelier 2.0xATR 50.883) - a 2.6% tightening that does most of the risk work here. Estimates stepped out of: 1wk 54.08 [50.98-57.71] (+1.37%); 4wk 54.02 [46.84-62.27] (+1.26%); 12wk 53.05 [43.40-67.17] (-0.56%). News: none found - Yahoo returns profile/quote pages only, no September event. L8: executes at the 2026-09-07 open. Chain: STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv72 -> STRONG BUY - ADD cv90 (origination reversed) -> formal-sell card WITHDRAWN -> ADR-0012 arm survives, tick (c) fires -> 30% tier, lot-floored to -> valuation silent -> scorecard 0 -> news none -> SELL 500, raise the trail hard. · news

decided @ 53.35 · stop 50.88 · t1w 54.08 · t4w 54.02 · t12w 53.05

Bank of China is the book's biggest winner at +9.3% and its conviction score collapsed forty points today as the stock gave back most of Friday's rally. We banked 30% at this morning's open at 6.10 and now take half of what remains, holding the rest behind an unchanged stop - a second profit-take into deterioration, not an exit, since the signal is not bearish and the model still shows no downside over twelve weeks. ADR-0012 armed on the GENUINE leg (Gain_ATR 3.22 >= 3.0 vs a real Avg_Cost 5.44), so HF-2 does not reach this card. TWO ticks: (b) conviction, -40 pts, label MomentumContinuation_Up -> FailedBreakdown_Up_20D; (c) Target_12Week 5.93 < 1.02 x 5.945 = 6.0639. (a) cleared - RSI_DIV gone overnight, PROFIT_ARMED standalone. 2 ticks -> profit_take_2 = 50%. G1 inapplicable (no longer a fresh Breakout/Momentum at cv>=80) and (b)/(c) fire regardless. SENSITIVITY DISCLOSED: tick (c) fired on holdings again tonight and is non-selecting on this book; strip it and this is 1 tick -> 30%. Valuation NA_CCY -> val_adj 0, no tier bump. Bias 0 (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|sell n=5 actionable, hit_1w 0.50). Action price = anchor close, provenance band 5.911-5.989 (Entry 5.95 +/- 0.25 x ATR 0.157). at board lot 1,000 = HKrealised +HK; residual 7,000. STOP 5.79 UNCHANGED = max(live 5.79, engine 5.64, chandelier 5.631) - engine and chandelier both sit below the standing stop after today's fall; cushion 2.61% / 0.99 ATR. L8: executes at the 2026-09-08 open, reprice if it gaps >~1.5%. · news

decided @ 5.95 · stop 5.79 · t1w 6.00 · t4w 5.96 · t12w 5.93

Standard Chartered has been a good holding, up 2.17%, but the model now projects the shares roughly 3% LOWER over twelve weeks than where they trade today, and the near-term view is flat. The stock has made a confirmed lower high and closed down two sessions running while conviction sits at a weak 43. Taking 30% off the table banks the gain on that slice and leaves to run if the lower high is invalidated, with the protective stop held at HK. This is a disciplined partial profit-take on a deteriorating forward view, not a call that the bank is in trouble. OPS: ADR-0012 profit-take, ARMED + tick (c). PROFIT_ARMED via T12_Progress_Pct 103.19 (close ABOVE the 12wk target); Gain_ATR 1.11. Tick (c) DEAD FORWARD VIEW fires: Target_12Week 226.37 < 1.02 x 233.60 = 238.27, and 226.37 is below the close outright (-3.10%). Ticks (a) no other Exit_Warning code, (b) conviction FLAT (yesterday's -22 collapse stabilised, not reversed), (d) no NO TRADE prints. ONE tick -> profit_take_1 = 30%, never a full exit from a profit-take. HF-2 CHECKED, DOES NOT APPLY - not an oversold-family falling knife: FailedBreakdown_Up_20D, RSI 54.8, real +2.17% gain, 2.67% under the 240.00 52W high; the arm is legitimate. G1 does not protect (not a fresh BreakoutUp/Momentum at cv>=80; cv43 is less than half that bar). G3 SATISFIED (forward view negative). G2 moot (NA_CCY). VALUATION AMPLIFY BARRED: MoS_FV -7.51 would bump but Val_Signal is NA_CCY (GBP/USD-reporting vs HKD-price artefact) -> base tier retained. Volume 30% x 1,100 = 330 -> board lot 50 ->, leaving 750; proceeds HK, realised +HK. STOP UNCHANGED at 228.47 = peak_stop; the scan prints 224.61 which is BELOW peak and a risk line is never lowered. ADR-0020: 224.61 vs peak 228.47 = -1.69%, far inside the 15% Trail Erosion threshold, no mandatory trim from that class. HF-5 CLEARED: HKD 0.204 dividend went ex 2026-08-06, nine sessions past, not an ex-div artefact. RE-ISSUED unfilled from 08-18 (executor stale 9th session); the delay has already cost HKon. Counterfactual optional_trim n=50 median +1.60%/+5.96% SAVED argues against and is OVERRULED - a fired ADR-0012 tick is a mandatory DISPOSE, not an optional trim. Reprice if the open gaps outside 230.10-237.10 (+-1.5%, L8).

decided @ 233.60 · stop 228.47 · t1w 234.74 · t4w 234.42 · t12w 226.37

China Construction Bank is the only name in the book to print an actionable buy on two consecutive sessions at the same conviction, and its setup has genuinely improved: the twelve-week forecast has flipped from below the share price to above it, removing the objection that halved the position yesterday. The purchase is repriced 1% higher than yesterday's unfilled instruction rather than carried at the stale level. Size stays at half because the one-week forecast still sits marginally below the entry and because CCB reports interim results and decides its dividend on 28 August, a binary event seven sessions out. Tomorrow's loan prime rate fixing is the near-term risk to lending margins. OPS: PROVENANCE - 9.05 is simultaneously the anchor settled close AND the printed Entry_Price, Entry_Distance_ATR -0.00, NO CHASE; yesterday's HKis DISCARDED per the Step 7 provenance rule, not republished. Non-execution cost stated: same now HKvs HKHKworse. Base HK, modulator 1.0x, x0.5 HF-4 gate modifier = HK; /9.05 = 5,880 -> board lot 1,000 -> = HK = 2.70% of book. GATE DELTA vs 08-18: HF-3 inversion leg now CLEARS (Est_12W 9.06 > Close 9.05, was -0.11 ATR below); HF-4 still trips but at HALF magnitude (-0.11 ATR vs -0.28), Est_4W 9.14 comfortably above entry. Strictly better than the setup that justified a half-size buy yesterday; half size RETAINED not upsized, since a +0.11% 12wk view is a technical clear rather than a real forward case, and it is why this ranks 3rd of 3. Buy_Rank 4, Position_Status NEW. Stop 8.89 = 0.86 ATR. Target_Price 9.42 (+4.09%), best risk objective of the three. Horizon: FOMC minutes reaction 08-20 = tighten-trail on this exact ticker, stop sits inside a +-2.5% macro band; CCB interims + dividend 08-28 = tighten-trail. Buy cell UNGRADED n=2, bias 0, L1/HF-3 applied as rules. Reprice if the open gaps outside 8.91-9.19 (+-1.5%, L8).

decided @ 9.05 · stop 8.89 · t1w 9.03 · t4w 9.14 · t12w 9.06

Bank of Communications printed the strongest signal this book has recorded - a FailedBreakdown_Up_20D buy at conviction 82, the fourth consecutive rise from 54, with the shares above every one of their six moving averages and trading 2.1% above the volume-weighted average price without being overbought (RSI 63.5). The setup is not a chase: the close sits exactly at the model's entry level. Valuation is unavailable because the bank reports in renminbi against a Hong Kong dollar quote, so this is a purely technical case, and it is a strong one. We are adding to the bought earlier this week, but at half the normal size and only on a small dip, because Chinese bank interim results land in about a week and we would rather build the position through that event than into it. OPERATIONAL: half size (0.5x) on the confirmed 28-29 Aug mainland-bank 1H results window; limit set at the Est_1W point 7.53 per HF-4 (Est_1W 7.53 < Entry 7.56 = low-quality-entry signature -> demote to pullback-queue, never buy on conviction alone); 7.53 is inside the +/-0.25 ATR provenance band 7.526-7.594 off the printed Entry_Price 7.56. HF-3 inversion leg clears (Est_12W 7.71 > close 7.56). Sizing: 26.5% x 2,011,163.50 x 20% = 106,591.67, x0.5 = 53,295.84, /7.53 = 7,078 -> lot 1,000 -> = HK. Stop 7.42 is a raise from the recorded 7.33, 1.02 ATR cushion, risk HKExpiry 2026-08-26 is deliberately set BEFORE the 28 Aug BOC board meeting so no limit sits live into the print. ON EXPIRY: re-adjudicate at the then-live Entry_Price; do NOT re-post this limit (new queue_expiry counterfactual n=5 = -11.32% median 4wk cost from zombie limits). · news

decided @ 7.53 · stop 7.42 · t1w 7.53 · t4w 7.60 · t12w 7.71

Bank of China holds a buy signal at conviction 72 with the shares above all six moving averages, 2.3% above their volume-weighted average price, and within 2% of the 52-week high - a steady uptrend rather than a spike. We already own bought earlier this week and are topping up modestly. Two things keep this deliberately small: the conviction reading has stopped rising, and the board meets on 28 August to approve first-half results, a binary event five trading days away that we would rather not increase exposure into. The limit sits just below the close, so we only add if the market offers a slightly better price. OPERATIONAL: half size (0.5x) on the CONFIRMED 28 Aug 1H board meeting. Conviction FLAT, so this ranks second behind 3328. HF-4 fires (Est_1W 5.50 < Entry 5.51) -> limit at the Est_1W point 5.50, inside the +/-0.25 ATR band 5.487-5.533. Sizing: 106,591.67 x0.5 = 53,295.84, /5.50 = 9,690 -> lot 1,000 -> = HK; position becomes at blended 5.4586 = 7.94% of book. STOP 5.44 is the engine print and a raise from 5.32, but leaves only 0.71 ATR cushion (-1.18%) - a break is a REVIEW TRIGGER, not an automatic full exit, since L2 needs stop-break AND a negative 12wk and the 12wk is +2.1% positive. Expiry 2026-08-26, before the 28 Aug print. ON EXPIRY: re-adjudicate at market, do NOT re-post. · news

decided @ 5.50 · stop 5.44 · t1w 5.50 · t4w 5.57 · t12w 5.62

Standard Chartered has now gone three straight sessions with the signal engine unable to form a view -- NO TRADE at zero conviction, pillars in open conflict (trend bullish, momentum weak) -- and the 12-week outlook has turned negative, widening from -0.8% to -2.6% below the current price. The long-term uptrend is genuinely intact and that is why we are cutting 30% rather than exiting: the shares still sit 23.5% above their 200-day average, H1 results in late July were a record (US8bn pre-tax, +9%, wealth income +38%, a fresh $1bn buyback), and momentum actually ticked up today. The decisive point is that our HKstop sits BELOW our HKcost, so a stop-out would realise a LOSS of ~HK -- the +HKopen gain is not protected by anything. Selling at ~HKbanks HKthe stop cannot defend and cuts stop-risk on the line from HKto HKwhile stay long the trend. RE-ISSUE of the 08-05 card, which NEVER EXECUTED and never could have: it was written with execution 'market_next_open', a token paper_executor.py does not recognise (_EXEC_KINDS = market|gtc_limit|gtc_stop), so _eligibility silently skipped it -- this card uses 'market'. The section 9 count did NOT reset because the reset clause in _state.json is conditioned on an EXECUTED cut; N is therefore 3, one past the 08-04 pre-commitment. Origination is CLAUDE.md section 9 N-consecutive-NoTrade ONLY -- NOT a profit-take (PROFIT_ARMED suppressed a 10th session under HF-2: Gain_ATR 0.78 vs the 3.0 threshold, T12_Progress 102.69 merely 234.40/228.26 on an inverted 12wk), NOT valuation (NA_CCY blind; the MoS -7.556 is a USD-financials-vs-HKD-price artifact and is deliberately NOT used to bump the tier to 50%), NOT a stop break. Volume: 30% x 1,550 = 465 -> board lot 50 -> (29.03%), proceeds HKrealised gain +HK, remainder on UNCHANGED stop 222.07 (2.0-ATR chandelier prints 219.62, below the ratchet floor). HF-5: the HKdividend went ex TODAY -- the 230.20 open reflected it and the 234.40 close more than recovered it, so this is mechanical, not deterioration, and no L8 reprice applies. Counterfactual optional_trim (n=40, +2.44% median saved @1wk, 4wk effect weakening 9.05% -> 6.71%) argues against and is consciously overridden: advisory-only by construction, its samples are trims against INTACT signals, and L3 forbids re-deferring a written pre-commitment. Horizon: 08-07 NFP is macro with a tighten-trail stance, compatible with a 30% cut; no 2888-specific event inside 5 sessions. Post-execution: re-base the section 9 count from 08-07 -- a further trim needs a NEW basis (decisive close below 222.07, a non-PROFIT_ARMED Exit_Warning, a fresh high-conviction SELL, or a fresh 2-consecutive-NoTrade run); raise the stop only when the 2.0-ATR chandelier exceeds 222.07. · news

decided @ 234.40 · stop 222.07 · t1w 235.96 · t4w 236.22 · t12w 228.26

China Merchants Bank has pulled back into its rising trend and is now the strongest setup this book has produced since inception: a PullbackBuy_VWAP signal at conviction 71 and rank 1, with the shares reclaiming their 20-, 50- and 200-day averages and momentum turning up while RSI sits at a comfortable 53.9 -- strong enough to buy, not so extended that we are chasing. We are bidding HK, a quarter below the close, so the order only fills if the market comes to us; the HKstop keeps risk at HK (0.12% of the book) against a HKobjective, a 2.5:1 structure. Valuation is unreadable for this name (CNY financials against an HKD quote), so the case is purely technical and no valuation credit is claimed. Operational: (board lot 500) = HKnotional, from HKsized as 26.5% x HK book x 20% buy_pct, size modulator 1.0x (NA_CCY, no tier adjustment). Clears every gate by name -- floor 71 >= 65; HF-4 Est_1W 48.78 >= entry 48.65, which is the exact re-arm trigger written into the 08-05 card and the specific condition that blocked it yesterday; HF-3 Est_12W 49.16 = +0.53% vs close, non-inverted; L1 favoured PullbackBuy family; Entry_Distance_ATR -0.22 inside the -0.25 no-chase bar; quality gate OFF on NA_CCY though Quality_Pass is TRUE independently, the only such name in the book. Honest caveat: PullbackBuy_VWAP|buy has NEVER been graded in this book (scorecard bias 0, no actionable cells), and the model's own central path is flat (+0.27%/+0.90%/+1.05% at 1/4/12wk) -- the trade is carried by the 2.5:1 structure, not by a projected move. GTC expires 2026-08-11 (anchor + 3 sessions); withdraw earlier if conviction falls below 65. US Non-Farm Payrolls lands on the 08-07 open -- a below-market limit is the correct instrument into a two-sided macro print, since a gap up simply leaves it unfilled. WebFetch unavailable this run, so the news pass was search-only. · news

decided @ 48.65 · stop 47.47 · t1w 48.78 · t4w 49.09 · t12w 49.16

Standard Chartered breaks to a fresh 52-week high on rising conviction (WATCH cv64 -> STRONG BUY cv90, Buy_Rank 1, RSI 66.9) — the first clean actionable buy the book has printed since inception, and it fires every leg of the 07-15 re-arm we set for it: cv>=65, actionable buy family, NON-inverted 12wk (Est_12W/Target_12Week 228.87 = +0.9% vs close 226.80), non-extended entry (buy-stop +0.34 ATR). Queued as a buy-stop at 228.63 so it fills only if the breakout confirms above the 226.80 close — self-limiting, no chase. Valuation blind (NA_CCY cross-currency -> val_adj 0, quality gate off); news neutral (constructive wealth-pivot strategy, no fresh catalyst). Sized 0.904 Portion x 2.0M x 20% buy_pct = 361.6k -> ( of 50) ~HK, ~17.7% of book; chandelier trail stop 214.98 (~6% risk). Execute next open 2026-07-17 (L8); reprice if the open gaps >1.5%. CAUTION: the model's own Est_1W 226.85 and Est_4W 225.15 sit BELOW the entry (low-quality-entry flag, carried 07-15) — mitigated by the stop-entry design and cv90; watch once filled. Target_Price 255.94 is a stretch breakout objective far above Est_4W. · news

decided @ 228.63 · stop 214.98 · t1w 226.85 · t4w 225.15 · t12w 228.87