BreakdownDown_52W
52-week low breakdown with volume confirmation — structural weakness. Setup requires striking distance of the low (bottom 10% of the 52W range), not merely the lower quartile — a name 24% off its low must not carry this label (0700 2026-07-07 regression).
Setup — what must already be true
- 52-week range position is one of New Low / Lower Quartile
- 52-week range position ≤ 10
- EMA stack (5/10/20/50 alignment) is one of Bearish Full / Bearish Partial (HK: Bearish Full / Bearish Partial / Mixed)
- RSI regime is not Extreme Oversold
- Liquidity gate is Pass
Trigger — what fires the signal
- 52-week range position is New Low
- Momentum trajectory (RSI + MACD direction) is one of Both Deteriorating / Mixed
- Volume vs 20-day average ≥ 1.2 (HK: 1.2, SG: 1.3)
Trade box & conviction bar
- Entry: sell stop at 0.1 ATR offset
- Stop: chandelier trail (3 ATR)
- Target: trailing
- Conviction: BUY-grade at ≥ 55, STRONG at ≥ 75
📰 From the newsletter
- Issue #7-2 · Listening for the Wind — Trend tools answer two questions: where price is moving and whether that movement has enough strength to matter.
Live track record for this signal
- US Main (sell): 0% hit the 1-week target (n=3, building sample)
- AI · Berkshire Mirror (sell): 33% hit the 1-week target (n=6)
- Hong Kong Main (sell): 57% hit the 1-week target (n=7)
- AI · HK Financials (sell): 100% hit the 1-week target (n=1, building sample)
- Singapore Main (sell): 67% hit the 1-week target (n=3, building sample)
- AI · SG REITs (sell): 50% hit the 1-week target (n=2, building sample)
- AI · SG Blue Chips (sell): 50% hit the 1-week target (n=2, building sample)
See it live right now
- 0100 · MINIMAX-W in Hong Kong Main — AVOID at conviction 60 (chart with entry/stop/targets drawn)
- 1024 · KUAISHOU-W in Hong Kong Main — AVOID at conviction 60 (chart with entry/stop/targets drawn)
- 0100 · MINIMAX-W in AI · HK Tech — AVOID at conviction 58 (chart with entry/stop/targets drawn)
- 1024 · KUAISHOU-W in AI · HK Tech — AVOID at conviction 58 (chart with entry/stop/targets drawn)