Hong Kong — Graded decisions
Every past recommendation whose target window has elapsed, scored against what actually happened. This is how we keep ourselves honest.
How to read this
- Graded — the recommendation’s horizon has passed, so we can score it.
- Hit target — price reached the model’s target. Stopped out — it hit the protective stop first. Closed — neither; it ran to the horizon. Not filled — a queued order that never triggered.
- 1wk / 4wk — the actual price return over that window after the decision.
| Date | Ticker | Decision | Signal | Outcome | 1wk | 4wk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | 2513 | SELL 1000 FULL @~1281 MKT | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | — | — |
| 2026-07-27 | 7709 | SELL 50% @~54.50 MKT | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | — | — |
| 2026-07-27 | 3690 | BUY QUEUED 1100 @80.33 | PullbackBuy_VWAP | Not filled | — | — |
| 2026-07-27 | 0939 | ADD QUEUED 10000 @8.84 | BreakoutUp_20D | Not filled | — | — |
| 2026-07-24 | 2513 | SELL 1000 FULL | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | — | — |
| 2026-07-24 | 7709 | SELL 50% | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | — | — |
| 2026-07-23 | 0005 | SELL 85% | ReversalDown_Overbought | Closed | — | — |
| 2026-07-23 | 2513 | SELL 1000 FULL | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | — | — |
| 2026-07-23 | 7709 | SELL 50% | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | — | — |
| 2026-07-23 | 0992 | BUY 4000 @24.62 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | Stopped out | — | — |
| 2026-07-23 | 2318 | BUY QUEUED 1500 @53.39 | PullbackBuy_VWAP | Closed | — | — |
| 2026-07-22 | 0005 | SELL ~85% @158.90 MKT | ReversalDown_Overbought | Closed | — | — |
| 2026-07-22 | 2513 | SELL 1000 FULL @1175 MKT | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | — | — |
| 2026-07-22 | 7709 | SELL 50% @55.76 MKT | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | — | — |
| 2026-07-22 | 3690 | BUY QUEUED 1100 @77.22 | PullbackBuy_VWAP | Not filled | — | — |
| 2026-07-22 | 0857 | BUY QUEUED 12000 @9.17 | PullbackBuy_VWAP | Not filled | — | — |
| 2026-07-22 | 0992 | BUY QUEUED 4000 @22.98 | PullbackBuy_VWAP | Open | — | — |
| 2026-07-21 | 2513 | SELL 1000 FULL @~1219 MKT | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | -14.5% | — |
| 2026-07-20 | 2513 | SELL 1000 | BreakdownDown_20D | Closed | +43.9% | — |
| 2026-07-20 | 0857 | BUY QUEUED @9.10 | PullbackBuy_VWAP | Not filled | — | — |
| 2026-07-20 | 9618 | BUY QUEUED @107.15 | PullbackBuy_VWAP | Not filled | — | — |
| 2026-07-17 | 2513 | SELL 500 @~1107 MKT | BreakdownDown_20D | Closed | +11.7% | — |
| 2026-07-17 | 0981 | SELL 1000 @70.45 LMT | BreakdownDown_20D | Closed | +0.3% | — |
| 2026-07-17 | 7709 | SELL 900 @~44.80 MKT | BreakdownDown_20D | Closed | +21.6% | — |
| 2026-07-17 | 0823 | ADD QUEUED @37.09 | PullbackBuy_VWAP | Not filled | — | — |
| 2026-07-17 | 1810 | BUY QUEUED @24.49 | PullbackBuy_VWAP | Not filled | — | — |
| 2026-07-16 | 2888 | ADD buy-stop 150 @228.65 | BreakoutUp_52W | Hit target (1w) | -1.2% | — |
| 2026-07-16 | 0388 | ADD QUEUED @377.42 | PullbackBuy_VWAP | Not filled | — | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 0100 | BUY 200 @260.6 | ReversalUp_Oversold | Stopped out | -23.5% | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 6869 | BUY 500 @156.4 | ReversalUp_Oversold | Stopped out | -19.6% | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 0388 | ADD QUEUED @377.14 | PullbackBuy_VWAP | Not filled | — | — |
| 2026-07-13 | 0939 | SELL 50% | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | +5.2% | — |
| 2026-07-13 | 0005 | SELL 50% | MeanRevDown_UpperBand | Closed | +2.6% | — |
| 2026-07-13 | 7709 | SELL 83% -> 300 | BreakdownDown_20D | Closed | -12.2% | — |
| 2026-07-10 | 0005 | SELL 50% | AnticipationUp_VCP | Closed | +2.2% | — |
| 2026-07-10 | 7709 | SELL 72% -> 500 | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | -49.9% | — |
| 2026-07-10 | 3750 | SELL 33% | BreakdownDown_20D | Closed | +3.3% | — |
| 2026-07-10 | 0992 | ADD QUEUED @23.26 | PullbackBuy_VWAP | Stopped out | -7.9% | — |
| 2026-07-09 | 0939 | SELL 50% | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | +1.5% | — |
| 2026-07-09 | 7709 | SELL 72% -> 500 | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | -41.2% | — |
| 2026-07-09 | 0700 | SELL 50% | NoTrade | Closed | +3.1% | — |
| 2026-07-09 | 0992 | ADD QUEUED @23.15 | PullbackBuy_VWAP | Stopped out | -7.5% | — |
| 2026-07-08 | 0939 | SELL 50% | NoTrade | Closed | -1.3% | — |
| 2026-07-08 | 7709 | SELL 72% -> 500 | BreakdownDown_20D | Closed | -13.3% | — |
| 2026-07-08 | 0823 | SELL 36% | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | +2.7% | — |
| 2026-07-07 | 0939 | SELL 50% | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | +4.5% | — |
| 2026-07-07 | 0823 | SELL 85% | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | +1.7% | — |
| 2026-07-07 | 7709 | SELL 50% | RallySell_BearTrend | Closed | -28.9% | — |
| 2026-07-06 | 0939 | SELL 50% | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | +4.7% | — |
| 2026-07-06 | 0005 | SELL 30% | MeanRevDown_UpperBand | Closed | +1.2% | — |
| 2026-07-06 | 0700 | SELL 50% | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | +1.2% | — |
| 2026-07-03 | 0939 | REDUCE 50% | BreakdownDown_20D | Closed | +6.4% | — |
| 2026-07-03 | 0823 | REDUCE 85% | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | -1.2% | — |
| 2026-07-03 | 0700 | REDUCE 50% | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | +11.0% | — |
| 2026-07-03 | 0005 | BUY - ADD | BreakoutUp_20D | Closed | +0.8% | — |
| 2026-07-03 | 2888 | BUY - ADD | BreakoutUp_20D | Hit target (1w) | +1.1% | — |
| 2026-07-02 | 0939 | REDUCE 50% | ReversalUp_Oversold | Closed | -0.1% | — |
| 2026-07-02 | 0823 | STRONG SELL - REDUCE | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | +1.3% | — |
| 2026-07-02 | 0700 | STRONG SELL - REDUCE | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | +7.2% | — |
| 2026-06-30 | 0939 | REDUCE 50% | BreakdownDown_20D | Closed | -2.7% | +13.1% |
| 2026-06-30 | 0823 | EXIT 100% | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | +2.1% | +7.6% |
| 2026-06-30 | 0700 | EXIT 100% | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | +5.2% | +4.0% |
| 2026-06-30 | 0981 | ADD | BreakoutUp_20D | Stopped out | -16.1% | -23.4% |
| 2026-06-30 | 0522 | ADD QUEUED | BreakoutUp_20D | Stopped out | -15.3% | -37.8% |
| 2026-06-29 | 0700 | STRONG SELL - REDUCE | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | +2.6% | +5.4% |
| 2026-06-29 | 0823 | STRONG SELL - REDUCE | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | +3.0% | +6.3% |
| 2026-06-29 | 0522 | STRONG BUY - ADD | MomentumContinuation_Up | Stopped out | -5.6% | -24.7% |
| 2026-06-29 | 7709 | BUY - ADD | PullbackBuy_VWAP | Stopped out | -20.4% | -62.9% |
| 2026-06-29 | 1347 | BUY - ADD | MomentumContinuation_Up | Stopped out | -6.3% | -28.0% |
| 2026-06-26 | 0823 | REDUCE | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | +4.3% | +6.8% |
| 2026-06-26 | 0700 | REDUCE | RallySell_BearTrend | Closed | +4.7% | +5.5% |
| 2026-06-25 | 0700 | EXIT 100% 1000 @421.4 | RallySell_BearTrend | Closed | +2.3% | +5.7% |
| 2026-06-25 | 0823 | EXIT 100% 2800 @36.18 | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | +4.8% | +9.4% |
| 2026-06-24 | 0700 | DISPOSE full exit @428.8 | RallySell_BearTrend | Closed | +0.6% | +3.8% |
| 2026-06-24 | 1347 | ACQUIRE-ADD QUEUED gtc-limit @182.39 | BreakoutUp_20D | Stopped out | -2.4% | -18.1% |
| 2026-06-24 | 2513 | ACQUIRE @2174 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | Stopped out | -17.5% | -46.0% |
| 2026-06-24 | 2382 | ACQUIRE QUEUED gtc-stop @79.64 | PullbackBuy_VWAP | Not filled | — | — |
| 2026-06-23 | 0700 | TRIM 50% | BreakdownDown_20D | Closed | +4.0% | +7.3% |
| 2026-06-23 | 7709 | PROFIT-TRIM 50% | NoTrade | Closed | -18.8% | -57.9% |
| 2026-06-23 | 0823 | TRIM 30% | BreakdownDown_52W | Closed | +7.1% | +11.7% |
| 2026-06-23 | 0981 | ADD | PullbackBuy_VWAP | Stopped out | -4.5% | -13.0% |
| 2026-06-23 | 2513 | ACQUIRE-NEW | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | Stopped out | -17.4% | -45.9% |
| 2026-06-22 | 6869 | ACQUIRE STRONG BUY-ADD | BreakoutUp_20D | Stopped out | -28.2% | -56.8% |
| 2026-06-22 | 0981 | ACQUIRE STRONG BUY-ADD | PullbackBuy_VWAP | Stopped out | -4.3% | -12.0% |
| 2026-06-22 | 0522 | ACQUIRE BUY-ADD | PullbackBuy_VWAP | Stopped out | +5.4% | -14.3% |
| 2026-06-22 | 2382 | ACQUIRE-NEW BUY | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | Stopped out | -24.3% | -26.6% |
| 2026-06-22 | 0700 | DISPOSE TRIM 500 | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | -0.4% | +2.8% |
| 2026-06-22 | 0316 | DISPOSE EXIT 100 | BreakdownDown_52W | Closed | +3.4% | +19.9% |
| 2026-06-22 | 0148 | QUEUED STRONG BUY | MomentumContinuation_Up | Stopped out | -23.2% | -63.7% |
| 2026-06-18 | 0005 | STRONG BUY-ADD | BreakoutUp_20D | Closed | +1.7% | +8.0% |
| 2026-06-18 | 7709 | BUY-ADD | BreakoutUp_52W | Stopped out | -23.6% | -65.5% |
| 2026-06-18 | 2513 | ACQUIRE-NEW STRONG BUY | BreakoutUp_20D | Stopped out | -14.4% | -44.1% |
| 2026-06-18 | 0148 | ACQUIRE-NEW STRONG BUY | MomentumContinuation_Up | Stopped out | -18.8% | -61.6% |
| 2026-06-18 | 2382 | ACQUIRE-NEW STRONG BUY | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | Stopped out | -25.1% | -27.3% |
| 2026-06-18 | 0700 | TRIM 500 | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | -2.0% | +1.1% |
| 2026-06-18 | 6869 | TRIM ~200 | RallySell_BearTrend | Closed | -7.6% | -42.2% |
| 2026-06-18 | 0316 | EXIT full 100 | BreakdownDown_52W | Closed | +2.6% | +18.9% |
| 2026-06-18 | 0823 | STANDING GTC sell-limit @38.00 | BreakdownDown_20D | Closed | -0.2% | +4.2% |
| 2026-06-17 | 0700 | TRIM 50% | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | -3.2% | -0.0% |
| 2026-06-17 | 0522 | TRIM 33% | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | Closed | -2.5% | -19.5% |
| 2026-06-17 | 0316 | EXIT full | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | -0.1% | +15.8% |
| 2026-06-17 | 2382 | BUY new | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | Stopped out | -24.5% | -26.8% |
| 2026-06-17 | 7747 | BUY | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | Stopped out | -28.9% | -50.8% |
| 2026-06-17 | 0148 | STRONG BUY | MomentumContinuation_Up | Stopped out | -20.0% | — |
| 2026-06-16 | 0700 | TRIM 50% | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | -3.6% | -0.5% |
| 2026-06-16 | 0823 | STRONG SELL - REDUCE | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | -0.2% | +4.2% |
| 2026-06-16 | 0316 | EXIT full | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | -1.9% | +13.7% |
| 2026-06-16 | 7747 | STRONG BUY | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | Not filled | — | — |
| 2026-06-16 | 1347 | BUY scale +1000 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | Not filled | — | — |
| 2026-06-15 | 1347 | BUY 2000 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | Stopped out | +16.2% | +5.4% |
| 2026-06-15 | 0316 | EXIT 100 - STOP-LOSS | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | -4.2% | +11.0% |
| 2026-06-15 | 0823 | GTC sell-limit 38.00 x2393 | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | -0.2% | +4.2% |
| 2026-06-12 | 0316 | EXIT | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | -3.3% | +12.1% |
| 2026-06-12 | 0992 | TRIM 50% | PullbackBuy_VWAP | Closed | -4.7% | +10.2% |
| 2026-06-12 | 0823 | TRIM 50% | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | -0.2% | +4.2% |
| 2026-06-12 | 0700 | TRIM 50% | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | -8.3% | -5.3% |
| 2026-06-12 | 0939 | BUY - ADD | BreakoutUp_52W | Not filled | — | — |
| 2026-06-11 | 0700 | TRIM 50% | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | -5.7% | -2.6% |
| 2026-06-11 | 9618 | EXIT | RallySell_BearTrend | Closed | -4.3% | +9.8% |
| 2026-06-11 | 0316 | EXIT | RallySell_BearTrend | Closed | -1.8% | +13.8% |
| 2026-06-11 | 0823 | TRIM 50% | ReversalUp_Oversold | Closed | -0.2% | +4.2% |
| 2026-06-11 | 0522 | BUY | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | Not filled | — | — |
| 2026-06-10 | 0700 | STRONG SELL - REDUCE | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | -7.4% | -4.4% |
| 2026-06-10 | 9618 | STRONG SELL - REDUCE | RallySell_BearTrend | Closed | -7.1% | +6.6% |
| 2026-06-10 | 0316 | STRONG SELL - REDUCE | BreakdownDown_20D | Closed | -2.7% | +12.8% |
| 2026-06-09 | 7709 | AVOID | ReversalDown | Closed | +2.7% | -46.8% |
| 2026-06-09 | 0700 | STRONG SELL - REDUCE | RallySell_BearTrend | Closed | -4.8% | -1.8% |
| 2026-06-09 | 9618 | STRONG SELL - REDUCE | RallySell_BearTrend | Closed | -8.6% | +4.9% |
| 2026-06-09 | 0316 | AVOID | RallySell_BearTrend | Closed | -5.5% | +9.5% |
| 2026-06-08 | 7709 | EXIT | PullbackBuy_VWAP | Closed | +18.5% | -38.6% |
| 2026-06-08 | 0700 | TRIM 50% | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | -3.4% | -0.3% |
| 2026-06-08 | 0823 | AVOID | BreakdownDown_20D | Closed | -0.1% | +4.3% |
| 2026-06-08 | 9618 | AVOID | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | -8.2% | +5.4% |
| 2026-06-08 | 0316 | AVOID | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | -10.5% | +3.8% |
| 2026-06-05 | 0700 | AVOID | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | -4.8% | -1.8% |
| 2026-06-05 | 0939 | STRONG SELL - REDUCE | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | -10.8% | +0.2% |
| 2026-06-05 | 1347 | BUY | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | Not filled | — | — |
| 2026-06-04 | 0823 | STRONG SELL - REDUCE | BreakdownDown_20D | Closed | -1.8% | +2.5% |
| 2026-06-04 | 1347 | BUY | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | Stopped out | +13.7% | +3.2% |
| 2026-06-04 | 0522 | BUY | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | Stopped out | +10.6% | -8.7% |
| 2026-06-04 | 0316 | STRONG SELL - REDUCE | RallySell_BearTrend | Closed | -6.4% | +8.4% |