Recommendations
0 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| KLAC | KLA Corporation | 193.22 | SELL 50% | 193.22 | 175.00 | 194.21 (+0.5%) | 196.83 (+1.9%) | 204.03 (+5.6%) | Taking half of KLA off the table after a second straight session of the strongest sell print in the book. The process-control franchise is intact and beat on Q2 revenue with a guide above consensus, but the stock has already re-rated ~81% year to date, sits 20% below its June high, and now trades at more than twice our discounted-cash-flow anchor - so the reward for holding a full position through a broad semiconductor pullback has thinned considerably. Halving locks in a +9.9% gain on the shares sold while keeping the core exposed to the AI capex cycle. Two independent origination classes: (i) ADR-0020 Trail Erosion FIRST fire - live stop 175.00 vs Peak Stop 272.00 = -35.66% with zero size reduction ever recorded, veto-immune per US-36 to US-17/US-18/34/US-22/US-30; (ii) stable signal-based STRONG SELL - REDUCE, two consecutive settled prints cv68 -> cv76 at Sell_Rank 1, so US-18/34 is satisfied. Size held to 50% rather than the engine's 88.52% because rows printed the same bearish family tonight - US-12/US-22 broad-tape classification, halve and keep the core rather than full-exit a name with a +5.6% 12wk forward. MoS -5.68 tier bump SUPPRESSED by G2 (Est_12W 204.03 = 2.44x the 83.43 DCF anchor). Trail stays 175.00 (1.5 ATR = 173.98, no raise). Watermark re-bases to 175.00 on execution. US-37 stalemate session 7. · news |
| LLY | Eli Lilly & Co | 1191.94 | SELL 30% | 1191.94 | 1155.71 | 1199.54 (+0.6%) | 1223.68 (+2.7%) | 1254.08 (+5.2%) | Trimming a third of Lilly two days after a blowout quarter, purely as position discipline rather than a change of view. Q2 revenue grew 48% to 0bn on Mounjaro and Zepbound volume, EPS rose 33%, full-year guidance went up to -87bn, and Lilly is now the only drugmaker above a trillion market cap - the business could hardly be doing better. But the shares have run to more than three times our valuation anchor and the model has now flagged a bearish setup on two consecutive closes, so we bank a slice into strength and keep the large majority of the position working. Origination is the written 08-06 pre-commitment executed as stated: any settled close below 1155.71 OR a 2nd consecutive settled STRONG SELL - REDUCE fires a 30% trim without debate. The price line held (close 1191.94); the second print arrived (cv72 -> cv65, Sell_Rank 2), satisfying US-34. G3 permits the trim on the bearish-signal disjunct despite a positive forward view. MoS -3.36 tier bump SUPPRESSED by G2 (Est_12W 1254.08 = 3.24x the 387.04 DCF). Size capped at the floor tier by the news override rather than the engine's 88.52%. No Cost in the portfolio file so US-26 declines the ADR-0012 arm - the trim does not rest on it. Remaining 49 keep trail 1155.71 (1.5 ATR = 1113.96, no raise). · news |
| GOOGL | Alphabet, Inc.- Class A | 357.75 | SELL 30% | 357.75 | 356.00 | 361.22 (+1.0%) | 361.55 (+1.1%) | 390.22 (+9.1%) | Banking a third of a position that has nearly tripled, into visible turbulence at the top of Alphabet's AI organisation. Jeff Dean and Sanjay Ghemawat are leaving DeepMind to start their own venture, which knocked the shares 4% lower and then lower again despite a Q2 that tripled consensus earnings, and Reuters reports the company is seeking to raise roughly $80bn in on top of a capex guide already lifted to -205bn. The stock is now sitting almost exactly on our stop and the model sees three weeks of dead money ahead, so we take the profit off the table and keep the majority of the holding for the longer-term AI story. Origination is ADR-0012 armed + fired, FIRST fire: armed via the Gain_ATR 15.43 limb with Unreal_PnL +190.85% (the independent gain limb, so US-33 does not apply and US-26 passes cleanly); fired on tick (d), two consecutive settled NO TRADE prints (A05C cv0, A06C cv0). Ticks (a)/(b)/(c) all absent - PROFIT_ARMED is the sole warning code, cv drift is zero, Est_12W 390.22 is 1.09x the close vs the 1.02 dead-forward bar. One tick = the 30% tier. G1 does not apply (not a fresh breakout at cv >= 80); US-19 executes the first soft-tick fire rather than deferring it, which is exactly the US-13 optional-trim leak. Valuation silent at MoS -0.74, well short of the -3 amplify threshold. NoTrade|sell -2 reported, NOT applied (US-38 retired it as a quantified veto). Remaining 112 keep stop 356.00 (1.5 ATR = 334.93, no raise). RE-ARM: any settled close below 356.00 fires a further 30% trim on the remainder. · news |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 218.99 | HOLD | 218.99 | 206.93 | 220.64 (+0.8%) | 221.83 (+1.3%) | 231.42 (+5.7%) | Holding Nvidia and raising the protective stop. The shares were essentially flat on the session and the model still reads the setup as constructive, so there is no case for selling, but after a strong run we tighten the line beneath the position to protect the gain ahead of the 26 August results. HOLD cv83 -> cv68 is a -15 drift, short of ADR-0012 tick (b)'s -20 bar. PROFIT_ARMED prints but US-26 DECLINES the arm - no Cost in the portfolio file, so Gain_ATR and Unreal_PnL_Pct are both blank and the gain cannot be verified. Stop 206.50 -> 206.93 = 1.5 ATR below the 218.99 close, above EMA20 206.20 and EMA50 205.06. The 07-16 trim stays withdrawn and the withdrawal is vindicated. SHARED WITH ussemicon - execute once (L7). |
| NBIS | Nebius Group, N.V. | 189.88 | HOLD | 189.88 | 183.00 | 195.93 (+3.2%) | 212.15 (+11.7%) | 277.12 (+45.9%) | Holding Nebius through a sharp 13% down day, because the cause is a local planning dispute rather than anything wrong with the business. A public hearing on the proposed expansion of its 300-megawatt Vineland, New Jersey data centre turned contentious over water use, noise and transparency, and the planning board has not ruled - a delay risk, not a broken thesis - with a separate report that Meta may build more of its own cloud adding to the selling across the neocloud group. The position remains above the line we set for it and Q2 results land on 12 August, so the sensible move is to hold into the print with the stop in place. Label flipped AVOID cv54 -> STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv59 but that is a LONE print out of two consecutive AVOIDs - US-18/34 BARS origination - and it sits on RallySell_BearTrend, tonight's WORST actionable sell cell at -6 (n=9, hit_1w.222, hit_4w.0, the same cell that governed the correctly-withdrawn 07-29 trims). adj = 59 - 6 = 53, twelve under the floor. Not armed (Gain_ATR -0.83, -10.26%, US-26). Stop 183.00 intact by +3.76%; 1.5 ATR = 150.50, no raise. Catalyst-aware hold applies (Q2 pre-open 08-12, three sessions out; CRWV 08-11 the closest read-through). PRE-COMMITMENT: any settled close below 183.00, or a 2nd consecutive settled STRONG SELL - REDUCE, fires a mandatory 50% trim - NBIS has never been size-cut. · news |
| NET | Cloudflare, Inc. | 284.43 | HOLD | 284.43 | 272.00 | 284.50 (+0.0%) | 293.13 (+3.1%) | 309.80 (+8.9%) | Holding Cloudflare, where the picture improved dramatically after the closing bell. The company beat on both revenue and earnings for Q2 and raised full-year guidance, and the shares jumped around 15% in extended trading - so tonight's quiet reading from the model describes a company that no longer exists as of the print. We hold the position, keep the stop where it is, and deliberately do not add into the gap. Anchor close 284.43 is PRE-announcement; the scan's NO TRADE cv0 is stale by one earnings print in the book's favour. Street was EPS on revenue (+30.1% YoY). No chase per L6. Stop 272.00 stands (1.5 ATR = 260.68, no raise). WARNING 7th session: TWO NET rows in input/usportfolio.json (150 and 0), the loader takes the last, so this position is invisible to the scan (Avg_Cost blank, Held false) and reads to the monitor as unledgered_drift - through its own earnings. DE-DUPLICATE BEFORE THE NEXT RUN. · news |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | 881.47 | HOLD | 881.47 | 770.00 | 890.77 (+1.1%) | 989.29 (+12.2%) | 1054.27 (+19.6%) | Holding Micron with no change. The shares eased 1.3% in a broadly weak session and remain modestly above our cost, with the memory upcycle intact and no company-specific news; the model has had nothing to say about the name for seven straight sessions, which is a reason to sit still rather than to act. TSMC's July revenue around 10 August and Applied Materials' results on 13 August are the next read-throughs. 7th consecutive NO TRADE cv0 - US-17 bars origination on a bare NO TRADE label. Indeterminate pillars. Under EMA20 897.07 / EMA50 890.00, far above EMA200 606.18. Not armed (Gain_ATR 0.27, T12_Progress 83.61). 1.5 ATR = 757.64, no raise - stop 770.00 stands. Re-based Trail Erosion remains VETOED (US-17/US-30, position above cost) and amplifies any future real sell signal. |
| OKTA | Okta Inc. | 143.51 | HOLD | 144.04 | 140.00 | 144.11 (+0.0%) | 147.25 (+2.2%) | 163.14 (+13.3%) | Holding Okta, which recovered its constructive reading despite a 2.4% down day. The setup the model likes best on this book - a pullback toward the volume-weighted average price within an uptrend - is back in place, the shares remain above their 20-day average, and the stop already sits above our cost, so the position is protected into profit whatever happens next. No add: the name is held and the label is HOLD, not BUY - ADD. Label NO TRADE cv0 -> HOLD cv64 on PullbackBuy_VWAP, the book's one reliable buy cell (+2, n=22). Above EMA20 140.91. Not armed (T12_Progress 87.97, Gain_ATR 0.58). Model stop 136.58 is LOOSER than the standing 140.00 - rejected per US-29, the standing trail holds at 140.00 vs the 139.80 cost. WATCH: a 2nd consecutive NO TRADE would arm ADR-0012 tick (d) if this ever becomes verifiably armed. |
| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc. | 437.65 | WATCH | 437.65 | 407.00 | n/a | n/a | 573.64 (+31.1%) | An administrative loose end rather than a trading decision: it is still unclear whether the Dell purchase authorised on 5 August was actually carried out. If it filled at the opening price that day the position is now about 6% underwater; if the order was never placed, nothing is owed. This needs to be confirmed either way before the next review so the books reflect reality. DISPOSITION OWED (ADR-0019/US-37, session 2). The 08-05 buy-stop at 464.24 almost certainly FILLED - DELL opened 466.60, above the trigger and below the 474.18 MAX FILL guard, no gap - so it fills at the open by construction. No DELL row with a non-zero exists in usportfolio.json. Marked to tonight's 437.65 that is -6.2%, -Record TAKEN (trade buy) or SKIPPED (trade skip us DELL) BEFORE the next run - an unrecorded fill is worse than an unexecuted card because the monitor, the Trail Erosion watermark and every held-name path silently ignore a position. NO ADD and no re-queue: DELL now prints NO TRADE cv0 with no Entry_Price. Stop 407.00 stands if held. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
118 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.132 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
52 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.