Recommendations
2 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| KLAC | KLA Corporation | 177.18 | SELL 30% | 177.18 | 174.01 | 178.11 (+0.5%) | 188.68 (+6.5%) | 182.50 (+3.0%) | KLA's business is doing well - a fifth straight earnings beat, a raised 2026 industry outlook and a 5bn backlog - but the protective stop under this position has been walked down 36% from its high while the position itself was never once reduced. That is a risk-management failure rather than a view on the company, so we are cutting 30% and keeping. OPERATIONAL: origination ADR-0020 Trail Erosion, live trail 174.01 vs a 272.00 Peak Stop (2026-07-01) = 36.03% erosion, zero size reduction, FIRST fire on this Peak Stop -> veto-immune (US-36); US-17/18/34/22/30 and the G1/G2/G3 gates and the catalyst-aware hold explicitly do NOT apply. The live STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv61 Sell_Rank 1 Portion 88.52% signal leg is STATED AND DECLINED as a lone flip out of AVOID x2 with the close +1.82% above the trail (US-34 invalidation limb unmet); the model's 88.52% portion is refused and the ADR-0020 30% floor governs. ADR-0012 does not fire independently: arm is the US-26 near-breakeven artifact (Gain_ATR 0.17, +0.81%, T12_Progress limb only) and no tick exists (conviction ROSE; 12wk 182.50 > 1.02x close 180.72). MoS -4.28 tier bump DOUBLE-WITHHELD: no signal origination to amplify, and G2 suppresses it (12wk 182.50 vs a DCF anchor). Cell identity changed from FailedBreakout_Down_20D|sell (+1) to RallySell_BearTrend|sell (-2) on the family flip. Target_Price blank (bearish family) -> risk objective n/a; T12_Progress 97.08% means the forward is spent. Core trail HELD 174.01 (chandelier 160.80 is lower; ratchet). PRE-COMMITMENT: a settled close below 174.01 escalates the core at that EOD. On execution the Peak Stop re-bases to 174.01 and future fires lose veto-immunity. 09-11 Goldman Communacopia is a low-confidence conference, not a hold-earning catalyst. 8th consecutive session unexecuted (US-37). · news |
| LLY | Eli Lilly & Co | 1123.00 | SELL 30% | 1123.00 | 1071.55 | 1124.30 (+0.1%) | 1114.29 (-0.8%) | 1112.06 (-1.0%) | Lilly remains an excellent business - Mounjaro revenue up 91% and full-year guidance raised - but the share price has now spent seven sessions below the level we committed in advance to treat as our line in the sand, and the model's own twelve-week view is slightly negative. We are trimming 30% on that pre-set discipline and keeping. OPERATIONAL: origination US-27/L2 via the 09-03 written pre-commitment, re-verified for a third consecutive settled close - settled 1123.00 < the 1142.00 line (7th session), 12wk 1112.06 = -0.97%. No reclaim -> no auto-withdrawal. US-26 DECLINES the ADR-0012 path: Avg_Cost is null in input/usportfolio.json so Gain_ATR/Unreal_PnL_Pct are unverifiable and PROFIT_ARMED is the artifact shape (T12_Progress 100.98 precisely because Target_12Week collapsed BELOW the close). US-17 is not implicated - the NO TRADE cv0 label is not the basis. ADR-0020 silent (9.66% vs the 1180.30 peak). MoS -2.58 is ABOVE the -3.0 line so NO tier bump: 30%, not 50%. NoTrade|sell bias drifted -1 -> +0 (n=57, hit_1w.481) - a coin flip, and per US-38 no longer a quantified veto in either direction. Flat-to-negative across all three horizons (+0.12% / -0.78% / -0.97%) is the whole case; 12wk exceeds the DCF anchor. RSI 36.8, close 4.0% below EMA20 and 3.7% below EMA50. Quality_Pass True, F=8, Quality_Rank 6 - a quality business trimmed on a price line, not a thesis. Core trail RAISED 1066.29 -> 1071.55 (2.0xATR chandelier, genuine ratchet). One search result quoted an intraday for 09-10 conflicting with the settled 1123.00 - settled close is authoritative (L4). Earnings 2026-10-29, outside the window. · news |
| GOOGL | Alphabet, Inc.- Class A | 332.60 | SELL 30% | 332.60 | 318.24 | 331.05 (-0.5%) | 336.65 (+1.2%) | 377.32 (+13.4%) | This position is up 170% and has reached 88% of its twelve-week objective while momentum has quietly rolled over - the price is below both its 20-day and 50-day averages with a weak momentum reading. We are banking 30% of a very large gain and keeping against a twelve-week view that is still 13% higher. OPERATIONAL: ADR-0012 armed + FIRED on tick (b), conviction against a 20-point bar. Arm US-26-verified and GENUINE via the real-gain limb (Avg_Cost 123.00, +170.41%, Gain_ATR 29.19), so US-33 does not apply. Other ticks re-run and do NOT fire: (a) no 2nd Exit_Warning code; (c) 12wk 377.32 > 1.02x close 339.25; (d) one NO TRADE print. STATED ALTERNATIVE, DECLINED: tick (b) is polarity-blind, and last night's cv63 belonged to a SELL signal (RallySell_BearTrend), so is the sell case evaporating rather than the hold case deteriorating; a polarity-aware reading would WITHDRAW this card under US-32 and promote SPCX (then OKTA) into slot 3. Carded because the literal rule fires, last night's card applied the same flat scale in reverse ('conviction rose '), and the independent facts support a 30% de-risk anyway (RSI 41.3, close 2.4% below EMA20 and 3.9% below EMA50, momentum pillar 43, T12_Progress 88.15). Defect logged as S14. US-32 honoured by RE-ORIGINATING rather than carrying the dissolved 09-09 basis (trail re-based to 315.44 so the close is now +5.44% above it, and the STRONG SELL - REDUCE has gone). US-19: first tier, third night, no escalation. ADR-0020 silent (11.89% vs the 358.00 peak). G1 not engaged (signal is NoTrade). MoS -0.61 is the least-overvalued held name - no bump; G2 would suppress one anyway (12wk vs a DCF anchor). This is a partial de-risk against a LIVE +13.4% forward, which is why it is 30% and stay long. Core trail RAISED 315.44 -> 318.24; the PRE-COMMITTED EMA200 line at 327.85 carries forward UNFIRED (close 332.60 above it and above the live EMA200 327.92) - a 2nd consecutive settled close below 327.85 escalates. News neutral: EUR13bn (1bn) Finnish AI-infrastructure commitment incl. a 22-year nuclear PPA, capex read as a mild negative before the stock closed +0.59%. Event Horizon 09-16 (4 sessions): Brinkema ad-tech redaction deadline, band -4.0%/+2.5%, stance hold-through - a legal event, not the index/earnings catalyst the catalyst-aware hold names. · news |
| VIST | Vista Energy, S.A.B. de | 78.95 | BUY — QUEUED @79.12 | 79.12 | 68.45 | 79.26 (+0.2%) | 79.35 (+0.3%) | 82.03 (+3.7%) | Vista is breaking out to a 52-week high on the back of a genuine operational step-change - production up 32% year-on-year with further growth guided for the next two quarters - and it is the only name on our entire buy list that both passes the fundamental quality screen and is not trading above our estimate of its worth. We are placing a stop order just above the market so it only buys if the breakout confirms. OPERATIONAL: BreakoutUp_52W cv88, STRONG BUY, Buy_Rank 1, Entry_Distance_ATR +0.05 - the trigger sits ABOVE the close so there is no chase by construction; RSI 65.4, below the 75 bar. Order type is the model's own Buy Stop @ 79.12: self-limiting, the US-21/US-35 working entry lever, and inherently robust to the 09-11 CPI print. This is the PRE-COMMITTED 09-09 WATCH re-arm firing ('re-card on any bullish actionable Action with a live Entry_Price'), re-priced to the LIVE 79.12 - the stale @75.86 was never republished (provenance rule). The 09-08 non-fill cost +on. Valuation UNDERVALUED, MoS_FV +0.0033, Quality gate PASS (F=7, Quality_Rank 11), FV/sh 74.82, DCF/sh 86.44 -> val_adj = clamp(round(0.0033 x 20), 0, +10) = 0. The ONLY Quality_Pass + UNDERVALUED name in the buy pool (US-20 drought, ~10 weeks). Adjusted 88 + 0 + 2 = 90, the highest carded in weeks; BreakoutUp_52W|buy +2 (n=11, hit_1w.600) and the family is NOT one of the three US-16 momentum-chase traps, so the raw-75 bar does not bind (raw 88 clears it anyway). Size modulator held at 1.0x not the permitted 1.25x - UNDERVALUED here is a +0.33% margin of safety, i.e. fair value not a bargain. Sizing 85.49% x x 20% = x 1.0 -> =, inside the cap (60% x equity), covered ~3.1x by. Stop 68.45 is the model chandelier_trail line, WIDE at 3.11xATR / -13.5%: risk 432 x 10.67 = = 2.30% of the equity base, stated because it is wide not tight. Target_Price 100.47 = risk objective, distinct from the 4wk estimate. NO DCF warning - 12wk 82.03 sits BELOW the anchor, the only card tonight of which that is true; note the estimator's own forward is modest (+3.68% at 12wk). News confirms: Q2 production +32% to 156,061 boe/d (oil +33%), Q3 guide ~160k / Q4 ~170k vs FY 158k, Bandurria Sur 25.1% + Bajo del Toro 35.0% consolidated from 1 May, Peter Thiel ~1% stake, +44% YTD / +74% 1yr, Q3 results 28-Oct (outside window). CAVEAT: the proximate driver is a MACRO SUPPLY SHOCK, not company news - Brent +7-8% on the week on Hormuz supply loss - and a supply-shock breakout can unwind as fast as it forms; one bearish headline in the set flags a recent earnings miss. Auto-withdraw on conviction < 65 or a family flip off BreakoutUp_52W (US-8); else expires 2026-09-15. · news |
| AAPL | Apple | 326.57 | BUY — QUEUED @324.42 | 324.42 | 316.57 | 327.86 (+1.1%) | 329.30 (+1.5%) | 331.01 (+2.0%) | Apple has the strongest fundamental quality score of anything on our buy list and its signal has turned constructive, but it jumped 3% on launch-day enthusiasm and closed right at the day's high - so rather than pay up we are leaving a limit order slightly below, and it only fills on a small pullback. Analysts are genuinely split on the new foldable, which is another reason not to chase. OPERATIONAL: FailedBreakdown_Up_20D cv78, BUY, Buy_Rank 2, Entry_Distance_ATR -0.0 (sitting exactly on the model entry). Adjusted 78 -10 (val, MoS -2.85, raw -14 clamped) -2 (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy, n=14 hit_1w.417) = 66, one point over the floor; raw 78 clears the US-10/US-16 chase-family bar of 75 - stated explicitly. Quality gate PASSES: Quality_Pass True, F-Score 9, Quality_Rank 4, the best quality reading in the pool. QUEUED AT A LIMIT, NOT MARKET-ON-OPEN (L6/US-9): AAPL rose +3.09% and closed 326.57 against a 326.68 high, i.e. 0.03% off the high, on the iPhone Duo / iPhone 18 Pro launch (Event Horizon 09-09 product_event, med). Limit = Entry_Price 326.57 - 0.25 x ATR 8.596 = 324.42, inside the provenance band. Size modulator 0.75x (-3 < MoS -2.85 <= -1). Sizing 49.24% x x 20% = x 0.75 = / 324.42 -> =, inside the cap, covered ~7.3x by. Stop 316.57 is the model line and also exactly the 09-10 session low - risk = 0.91xATR = on, tight with a clean invalidation level. Target_Price 343.76 = risk objective. 12wk 331.01 exceeds the DCF anchor. Forward is modest across all three horizons (+1.06% / +1.50% / +2.03%) - a quality-passing non-extended entry, not a high-expectancy one. News NEUTRAL and two-sided: iPhone Duo at launching 23-Oct plus iPhone 18 Pro and Watch Series 12 under new CEO John Ternus, with baseline iPhone 18 models ELIMINATED; Citi Buy / PT calling the Duo the biggest new category since the Watch and AirPods, Morgan Stanley noting the price came in below expectations ('prioritizing adoption rather than maximizing near-term economics'), Needham Hold warning that no low-end iPhone until spring threatens near-term units. A market-on-open buy was explicitly declined. Auto-withdraw on conviction < 65 or a family flip off FailedBreakdown_Up_20D (US-8); else expires 2026-09-15. · news |
| OKTA | Okta Inc. | 171.11 | NO ACTION | 171.11 | 163.59 | 172.09 (+0.6%) | 181.55 (+6.1%) | 183.31 (+7.1%) | This position is up 22% and has reached 93% of its twelve-week objective, and its signal quality just collapsed - so a 30% profit-take is warranted. It is not in tonight's three because three larger de-risking trades rank ahead of it; it is first in the queue for tomorrow. OPERATIONAL: ADR-0012 armed + FIRED. Arm US-26-verified (Avg_Cost 139.80, +22.40%, Gain_ATR 3.68, T12_Progress 93.34); fire tick (b) = conviction. Ticks (a) none, (c) 12wk 183.31 > 1.02x close 174.53, (d) one print. Ranks 4th on banked dollars behind KLAC / LLY / GOOGL and is excluded ONLY by the <=3 DISPOSE cap. THE MoS -5.25 TIER BUMP IS SUPPRESSED BY G2, CONTRADICTING THE 09-08 WRITTEN PRE-COMMITMENT'S TIER - stated, not quietly dropped: the 09-08 entry pre-committed 'the MoS -6.27 amplify then bumps it 30% -> 50% (60 ->)' but was written without running the DCF-reliability gate on the amplify leg. OKTA's 12wk 183.31 exceeds its DCF anchor by 51% and the -5.25 margin of safety derives from an EPV fair value of on a stock (the S10 collapse) - G2 exists precisely to stop that driving size. 30%, not 50%. The FIRE is unaffected: G2/G3 govern the valuation-elevate path only and never block a fired profit-take. RSI 62.0, VWAP distance +8.81% (extended), session high 179.44 vs a 171.11 close = a 4.6% intraday give-back. 12wk exceeds the DCF anchor. Trail HOLDS 163.59 (chandelier 154.08 is lower; ratchet). Ledgered direction:none / optional:true WITH price and volume so the counterfactual grader prices the deferral - a ledgered card, not the prose US-13 bans. PRE-COMMITMENT (US-35): OKTA fires FIRST at the next EOD, ahead of any new candidate, while the arm AND the tick both hold, at 30%, with the G2 suppression standing unless the DCF anchor becomes reliable. WARNING: Adobe Q3 printed after the anchor and OKTA is the Event Horizon band reference for it (-4.0%/+3.5%, 'highest-multiple, lowest-moat' read-through); the reaction was unknown at anchor time - re-check before acting. This is the third fire/withdraw cycle on this name (09-03 fired, 09-08 deferred, 09-09 withdrawn) - US-19 governs: execute the first fire, do not escalate. · news |
| SPCX | Space Exploration Tech Corp | 148.18 | NO ACTION | 148.18 | 140.06 | 147.61 (-0.4%) | 148.16 (-0.0%) | 163.36 (+10.2%) | This position is up 127% and its signal has gone quiet, which would normally trigger a 30% profit-take - but the Nasdaq-100 quarterly index changes are announced tomorrow and this is the one name where an index-weight increase could force mechanical buying from index funds. We are holding through the event rather than selling into it. OPERATIONAL: ADR-0012 tick (b) FIRES (conviction on a US-26-genuine arm (Avg_Cost 65.28, +126.98%, Gain_ATR 11.00, T12_Progress 90.71) - but the trim is DECLINED on the CATALYST-AWARE HOLD. Event Horizon 09-11 (one session out), index_change, med confidence: Nasdaq-100 September quarterly changes announced, SPCX named as 'the name that matters here', TD Securities estimating its N100 weight could rise above 3.5% after the 6-Aug ~911.5M-share release and the 9-Sep Day-90 tranche, creating mechanical index-fund buying. The skill's rule is explicit - default to HOLD/trail through an index-inclusion catalyst <=5 sessions and trim ONLY on a confirmed lower-high or a decisive stop break. Neither exists: highs run 154.86 (09-08) -> 153.00 (09-09) -> 154.70 (09-10), not a confirmed lower-high sequence, and the close 148.18 is +5.80% above the 140.06 trail. DO NOT PRE-TRIM INTO THE CATALYST. Trail-raise unavailable (chandelier 133.11 < 140.06); ratchet holds 140.06. Val_Signal GROWTH_PRICED_IN on a EPV fair value with NO DCF at all (MoS -67.13) is the S10/S11 shape - G2 would suppress any amplify regardless. Third session under full signal treatment since the S8 unmute. PRE-COMMITMENT (US-35): the deferred 30% fires at the EOD following the 09-11 Nasdaq-100 announcement if the tick still holds, or immediately on a confirmed lower-high or a settled close below 140.06. · news |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 218.36 | HOLD | 218.36 | 220.48⚠ | 219.48 (+0.5%) | 220.91 (+1.2%) | 231.46 (+6.0%) | Nvidia closed marginally below our protective stop - by less than 1% - but the signal is still constructive and the twelve-week view is 6% higher, so this is a marginal breach rather than a breakdown and we are holding. Oracle's strong results after the close are a direct positive read for the AI hardware chain. OPERATIONAL: monitor stop breach, settled 218.36 vs a recorded 220.48 trail = -0.96%. L2 FAILS on its second leg - 12wk 231.46 = +6.0%, alive. US-22 governs the marginal-breach case (the MU -0.21%/-0.71% precedent). ADR-0012: PROFIT_ARMED (T12_Progress 94.34) but NO tick fires - (a) none, (b) conviction ROSE, (c) 12wk > 1.02x close, (d) one NO TRADE print - so the standing US-26 block (missing Cost field, S7 into a 7th session) is MOOT tonight. Label HOLD cv54 on FailedBreakdown_Up_20D, consensus Consolidation_Bullish, close above EMA50 214.81 and EMA200 201.37, fractionally below EMA20 220.09. Chandelier 204.81 is below the standing line -> ratchet HOLDS 220.48. The position is trading BELOW its own stop, an unstable state: PRE-COMMITMENT (US-35) - a 2nd consecutive settled close below 220.48 escalates this to a dispose card at that EOD, no re-litigation. News confirms the hold: Oracle FY27 Q1 beat hard overnight (+~7% after hours, RPO $638bn +363%, FY27 guide >$90bn, infrastructure +93%), which the Event Horizon named as the cleanest read on the accelerator build rate; NVDA also sits in the 09-10 TSMC monthly-revenue event. · news |
| NBIS | Nebius Group, N.V. | 228.11 | HOLD | 228.11 | 234.32⚠ | 229.08 (+0.4%) | 256.66 (+12.5%) | 312.33 (+36.9%) | Nebius closed 2.7% below our stop on a weak session, but its twelve-week view is still 37% higher and it remains above every one of its moving averages. Crucially, the sell-off happened going into Oracle's results, which then beat strongly after the close - the single best available confirmation of demand for exactly what Nebius sells. Holding, with a tighter escalation line set. OPERATIONAL: monitor stop breach, settled 228.11 vs 234.32 = -2.65%, the larger of tonight's two, on a -5.09% session. L2 FAILS decisively on its second leg - 12wk 312.33 = +36.9%, the strongest forward in the book. NOT ARMED (no PROFIT_ARMED, Gain_ATR 1.07 < 3.0, T12_Progress 73.03 < 90) so tick (b) does not exist despite the conviction collapse. US-17 independently bars disposing on the bare NO TRADE. ADR-0020 silent (0.58% vs the 235.69 peak). Trend pillar Bullish (72) against bearish momentum/volatility; close above EMA20 221.45, EMA50 216.70 and far above EMA200 171.74. Chandelier 197.35 is well BELOW the standing line - the ratchet holds 234.32 and is deliberately NOT loosened (US-29) even though price sits under it. PRE-COMMITMENT (US-35): a settled close below EMA20 (221.45) escalates the exit case at that EOD. MoS -364.66 on a EPV fair value is the S10 collapse - G2 suppresses any amplify off it. News CONFIRMS THE HOLD and the timing matters: Oracle beat hard overnight (RPO $638bn +363%, FY27 guide >$90bn, infrastructure +93%); on the name itself Q2 revenue +454% YoY to with non-GAAP EBITDA (41% margin), 2026 revenue targeted at -3.4bn and a -9bn exit run rate, and Palantir named Nebius its preferred sovereign-AI infrastructure partner. Against that, one downgrade to Hold on 'explosive growth meets a stretched valuation'. Expect the 09-11 open to gap UP - reprice accordingly. · news |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | 977.41 | HOLD | 977.41 | 953.77 | 983.91 (+0.7%) | 1084.36 (+10.9%) | 1235.63 (+26.4%) | Micron fell 5% but is still comfortably above its stop with a twelve-week view 26% higher, and the pullback has actually taken the position back below the gain threshold that would make a profit-take applicable. Holding. OPERATIONAL: UN-ARMED this session - the -4.90% move dropped Gain_ATR to 2.48 (below the 3.0 arm bar) and T12_Progress to 79.1 (below 90), and Exit_Warning is now BLANK. So despite an conviction collapse there is NO armed position for tick (b) to fire on - tick (b) only exists on an armed name. US-17 bars disposing on the bare NO TRADE anyway. Close 977.41 is +2.48% above the 953.77 trail, no breach; 12wk 1235.63 = +26.4% alive; trend pillar 78 against momentum 24 (Conflicted consensus). Chandelier 882.19 is far below the standing line -> ratchet holds 953.77. ADR-0020 silent (at peak). Quality_Pass True, F=8, Quality_Rank 2 - the second-best quality reading in the book. Oracle and TSMC monthly-revenue read-throughs are positive for HBM allocation. · news |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc | 503.60 | NEAR-MISS | 503.60 | 493.33 | 506.01 (+0.5%) | 514.39 (+2.1%) | 567.39 (+12.7%) | AMD passes our quality screen and ranks fourth on the buy board with the best twelve-week view of any candidate, but our valuation model puts fair value so far below the market price that the resulting penalty pushes it under the threshold. Passed over on valuation, not on the chart. OPERATIONAL: adjusted 68 -10 (MoS -11.22, clamped from -56) -2 (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy, n=14) = 56, nine points under the 65 floor; raw 68 also misses the US-10 chase-family bar of 75. PASSES the quality gate (Quality_Pass True, F=8, Quality_Rank 16) - the clearest S10 casualty tonight: the -10 clamp derives from a EPV fair value on a stock. Buy_Rank 4, Entry_Distance_ATR -0.0 (on the model entry, not extended), 12wk 567.39 = +12.7%, DCF/sh 171.74. Family flipped BUY - ANTICIPATE -> BUY, conviction. |
| WDS | Woodside Energy Goup Ltd | 23.89 | NEAR-MISS | 23.89 | 23.50 | 24.08 (+0.8%) | 24.45 (+2.3%) | 25.80 (+8.0%) | Woodside was the board's only STRONG BUY last night and is the other energy name benefiting from the oil move, but it fails our fundamental quality screen and its conviction has decayed - so the energy exposure goes to Vista instead. OPERATIONAL: adjusted 69 -5 (MoS -0.98) -2 (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy) = 62, three points under the floor, AND blocked by the quality gate (Quality_Pass False, F=4, Quality_Rank 47, revenue growth -1.5%). Conviction decayed STRONG BUY cv78 -> BUY cv69. Buy_Rank 3, Entry_Distance_ATR 0.0. Stop 23.50 is only -1.63% below entry (0.58xATR) - unusually tight. 12wk 25.80 = +8.0%. |
| BAC | Bank of America | 62.56 | NEAR-MISS | 62.56 | 62.01 | 63.03 (+0.8%) | 63.77 (+1.9%) | 64.19 (+2.6%) | Bank of America is the steadiest chart on the board - the only low-volatility name in the pool - but it screens as overvalued against its book-value model and fails the quality gate, and its conviction has been fading. Passed over. OPERATIONAL: adjusted 66 -2 (MoS -0.45) -2 (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy) = 62, three points under the floor, AND blocked by the quality gate (OVERVALUED_VS_RI via the residual-income method for financials, Quality_Rank 48 - the worst in the book - despite F=7). Conviction decayed. Buy_Rank 7, Vol_Tier low_vol, Entry_Distance_ATR -0.0, 12wk 64.19 = +2.6% - the smallest forward of any BUY row. |
| TSLA | Tesla Inc | 363.56 | NEAR-MISS | 357.34 | 339.88 | 365.48 (+2.3%) | 359.24 (+0.5%) | 370.72 (+3.7%) | Tesla sits on the pullback-entry setup our playbook prefers, but it fails the quality screen, is heavily overvalued on our model, and is trading below its 200-day average - three independent reasons to pass. OPERATIONAL: adjusted 62 -10 (MoS -19.37, clamped) +0 (PullbackBuy_VWAP|buy, n=28 - the cell has now eroded to ZERO bias, hit_1w.520, hit_4w.227, which empties L1's 'sole reliable buy cell' framing per US-38) = 52, thirteen points under the floor. Also blocked by the quality gate (Quality_Pass False, F=4, Quality_Rank 46). Close 363.56 is BELOW EMA200 381.13 and the consensus is Mixed with a Bearish momentum pillar (24). Buy Limit @ 357.34 sits below the close (Entry_Distance_ATR -0.41), so the model itself wants a pullback first. Conviction decayed. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
205 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.171 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
52 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.