Recommendations
3 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| KLAC | KLA Corporation | 169.09 | SELL 50% | 169.09 | 174.01⚠ | 169.74 (+0.4%) | 176.08 (+4.1%) | 168.73 (-0.2%) | KLA closed decisively below our stop on a sector-wide chip selloff, its 12-week outlook has turned negative, and the model has now printed a strong reduce signal three sessions running - we halve the position and keep a core. OPERATIONAL: L2 satisfied (close 169.09 is -2.83% under the 174.01 line; Target_12Week 168.73 < close) + 3rd consecutive settled STRONG SELL - REDUCE; underwritten by the latched ADR-0020 mandate (36.03% erosion vs 272.00 Peak Stop, never cut, veto-immune). Tier held at 50% by US-22 (sector-driven break: SOX -5.9% on the Amodei AI-slowdown call) and US-72 (RallySell_BearTrend|sell -3); engine 88.52% declined. MoS -4.28 bump withheld by G2 (12wk 2.7x the DCF). Position is now underwater (-3.79%), PROFIT_ARMED is the US-26 artifact. Core on the 174.01 line (not lowered, US-58); printed 151.65 stop is the S1 artifact. PRE-COMMITTED: 50% of the core fires on a settled close <=166.55 or no settled reclaim of 174.01 by the EOD on us_signals_20260918_060011.csv. Owed 09-11 SELL disposition still unrecorded (US-37). · news |
| LLY | Eli Lilly & Co | 1138.28 | SELL 30% | 1138.28 | 1071.55 | 1136.39 (-0.2%) | 1128.76 (-0.8%) | 1128.43 (-0.9%) | Lilly has stayed below the price level we committed to defend for nine sessions and its 12-week outlook has turned negative again, which is exactly the condition we wrote down in advance for reopening the trim - we sell 30% and keep the rest on a firm stop. OPERATIONAL: 09-11 pre-commitment fired without re-litigation - Target_12Week 1128.43 vs close 1138.28 = -0.87% (from +0.46%, a 1.33-pt reversal) while the close is under 1142.00 (US-27 line, 9th session). NO TRADE cv0 x5 is not the basis (US-17). Line break shallow tonight (-0.33%, rotation lifted LLY +2.02%) so tier stays at the 30% floor; MoS -2.58 above -3, no bump. PROFIT_ARMED on blank Avg_Cost declined (US-26/US-66). Residual on 1071.55. |
| NBIS | Nebius Group, N.V. | 212.19 | SELL 30% | 212.19 | 234.32⚠ | 213.63 (+0.7%) | 234.92 (+10.7%) | 269.53 (+27.0%) | Nebius is a risk-discipline trim, not a call on the business: its stop has been breached by more than 9%, a mandatory trim first triggered on 1 September was never carried out, and today's AI-infrastructure selloff is the scenario that rule protects against - we sell 30%. OPERATIONAL: ADR-0020 mandate LATCHED since the 09-01 first fire (21.21% erosion vs the 235.69 Peak Stop, no size cut since) per US-73 - the 09-08 withdrawal on a raised model stop was the failure US-73 closes. First fire on this peak = veto-immune (US-17/18/22/30/34 do not apply), pinned at 30% (US-39); amplify inapplicable by construction (US-78; MoS -364.66 is the S10 EPV artifact). Signal leg would not originate alone (HOLD cv54, 12wk +27.0%, not armed). Residual on the 234.32 line (not lowered). PRE-COMMITTED: signal case (subject to vetoes post-cut) opens on a settled close <=203.87, floor 30% of residual. · news |
| AAPL | Apple | 333.08 | BUY — QUEUED @333.08 | 333.08 | 321.19 | 334.78 (+0.5%) | 336.46 (+1.0%) | 334.00 (+0.3%) | Apple printed a strong buy after three straight bullish sessions, has the highest quality score in our universe, and held up while chip stocks sold off - we open a starter position at the model entry, sized down because the shares already price in growth. OPERATIONAL: STRONG BUY cv90, Buy_Rank 2, Entry_Distance_ATR 0.00, RSI 63.3. US-16 chase floor cleared (raw 90 >=). val_adj suppressed by US-41 (EPV vs DCF = 2.9x; would be -10); bias -1 (hit_4w.222, stop-first.400). Quality PASS F=9. Size 0.8549 x x 20% x 0.75 = Stop 321.19 = manual 1.5 ATR (US-47; printed 329.12 is a 0.5-ATR noise stop). Forward estimates flat (12wk +0.28%, cell hit_12w.000) - conviction/quality trade. Supersedes the 09-11 anticipate pre-commitment (US-75). CONDITIONAL on US-56: record the owed 09-11 dispositions first. Horizon: FOMC 09-16, iPhone 18 Pro retail 09-18. · news |
| NET | Cloudflare, Inc. | 330.36 | ADD — QUEUED @332.31 | 332.31 | 297.02 | 332.02 (-0.1%) | 331.77 (-0.2%) | 368.05 (+10.8%) | Cloudflare broke to a 52-week high as investors rotated into AI-security names, after three straight buy signals - we add to the position with a buy-stop just above the close so it only fills if the breakout holds, at half size because the valuation is stretched. OPERATIONAL: STRONG BUY cv78 BreakoutUp_52W, Buy_Rank 5; buy-stop 0.10 ATR above close (US-64). Not a US-16 family; not post-earnings (L6). val_adj suppressed by US-53 (EPV -2.36, FV is a DCF on a stock; would be -10); bias +2 but hit_4w.111 / hit_12w.000 (US-74). Quality False does not block an ADD. Size 85.49% x = 171 x 0.5 =; post-fill < cap. Position trail raised 292.77 -> 297.02 (2x ATR chandelier). S18: duplicate NET row makes the scan print NET as flat - holding is per us_transactions.jsonl. · news |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corp | 505.41 | BUY — QUEUED @496.69 | 496.69 | 484.99 | 510.57 (+2.8%) | 539.69 (+8.7%) | 536.43 (+8.0%) | Microsoft flipped to a strong buy on a pullback setup and benefited from the rotation out of chipmakers, but it closed nearly one ATR above the model's entry - we queue a limit order at that entry rather than chase. OPERATIONAL: STRONG BUY cv86 PullbackBuy_VWAP, Buy_Rank 3, fresh from WATCH x2; Entry_Distance_ATR -0.86 -> QUEUED at printed entry (within US-54's 1.5 ATR). adj 86 -8 (MoS -1.70 x5 = -8.5, half-even) -1 (hit_4w.208, stop-first.464) = 77. Quality PASS F=6. Size 0.8549 x x 20% x 0.75 = ->. Stop 484.99 printed (1.16 ATR). Expires 09-17; auto-withdraw if conviction < 65. CONDITIONAL on US-56. · news |
| OKTA | Okta Inc. | 186.45 | NO ACTION | 186.45 | 166.68 | 186.09 (-0.2%) | 192.82 (+3.4%) | 182.37 (-2.2%) | Okta jumped 12% on the AI-security rotation and has now passed its 12-week target, which triggers our profit-taking rule - but three more urgent risk sales took the available slots, so the 30% trim is deferred with a tighter trigger and the trailing stop is raised. OPERATIONAL: armed via Gain_ATR (prior EOD 3.11, now 4.05; US-84, US-33 clear); tick (d) dissolved, tick (a) RSI_DIV downgraded by G1 (fresh BreakoutUp_20D cv), tick (c) FIRES (Target_12Week 182.37 < close 186.45). 30% tier; MoS -5.25 bump suppressed by G2. Ranked 4th on banked dollars behind KLAC/LLY/NBIS -> displaced by the cap (US-62). RE-COMMITTED: fires at the first EOD on/after us_signals_20260925_060011.csv (post-Oktane 09-22-24 catalyst hold) while armed + non-downgraded tick, or at any EOD on a confirmed lower-high or settled close <=164.18. Trail 163.59 -> 166.68. ADD cv not carded (US-56 owed 09-11 SELL + no flip-flop). · news |
| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | 534.28 | FILL UNCONFIRMED | 534.28 | 446.25 | n/a | n/a | n/a | Our queued Dell buy was a limit order above Monday's opening price, so if it was placed it filled at the open; the stock has since turned neutral, so there is nothing new to do beyond recording whether the order went through. OPERATIONAL: 09-11 gtc_limit @563.71 vs 09-14 open 538.57 (close 534.28). DELL now NO TRADE cv0 - a still-open queue would auto-withdraw. Book must record trade buy or trade skip (ADR-0019). If filled, hold on the 446.25 stop. No verdict (US-89). Systemic S20. |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | 924.03 | HOLD | 924.03 | 953.77⚠ | 927.51 (+0.4%) | 1010.45 (+9.4%) | 1144.67 (+23.9%) | Micron fell through its stop on the sector-wide chip selloff, but its 12-week outlook remains strongly positive and nothing specific to the company has changed, so we hold without lowering the stop and have written down when we would trim. OPERATIONAL: decisive breach -3.12% under 953.77; L2 fails (12wk +23.9%); not armed (Gain_ATR 1.31); HOLD cv49. Line held (US-58). PRE-COMMITTED 30% : any EOD settled close <=899.40, or still below 953.77 at the EOD on us_signals_20260919_060011.csv. · news |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 210.96 | HOLD | 210.96 | 220.48⚠ | 211.70 (+0.4%) | 212.70 (+0.8%) | 222.51 (+5.5%) | Nvidia fell through its stop as the AI-slowdown comments hit chipmakers, but its 12-week outlook is still positive and it remains above its-day average, so we hold on an unchanged stop with a written trim trigger. OPERATIONAL: decisive breach -4.32% under 220.48; L2 fails (12wk +5.5%); Avg_Cost blank, PROFIT_ARMED on T12 limb, no tick fires (no deferred fire, US-55). PRE-COMMITTED 30% : any EOD settled close <=201.72 (EMA), or still below 220.48 at the EOD on us_signals_20260919_060011.csv. · news |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies Inc. | 173.31 | NEAR-MISS | 177.05 | 169.27 | 174.18 (-1.6%) | 176.70 (-0.2%) | 177.41 (+0.2%) | Palantir cleared our conviction threshold and passes the quality screen, but three stronger candidates took the available buy slots. OPERATIONAL: BUY cv74 PullbackBuy_VWAP, buy-stop 177.05 above close; val_adj suppressed by US-41 (EPV vs DCF); Quality True F=8; displaced by the 3-slot cap. Re-card if a slot opens with a live entry. |
| VIST | Vista Energy, S.A.B. de | 76.41 | WATCH | 76.41 | 74.76 | 76.86 (+0.6%) | 76.53 (+0.2%) | 78.02 (+2.1%) | Vista, still our only undervalued high-quality name, returned to a buy signal, but on a setup type that has historically failed unless conviction is very high, so we keep watching rather than buy. OPERATIONAL: 09-11 WATCH re-arm trigger met (BUY cv68, live entry) but US-16 chase-family floor (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D needs raw >=) was never adjudicated at issuance (US-88); raw 68 fails. Re-arms on a non-chase-family bullish print or raw >= 85. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
218 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.171 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
52 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.