Recommendations
0 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| KLAC | KLA Corporation | 183.34 | SELL 30% | 183.34 | 184.00⚠ | 184.23 (+0.5%) | 181.88 (-0.8%) | 179.43 (-2.1%) | KLA is the only holding in the book whose own 12-week forward is now negative (179.43 against a 183.34 close), it closed below its stop, and it sat out the semiconductor bounce that lifted Micron +2.5% and Nebius +5.2% on the same session. Trading below its 10-, 20- and 50-day averages with the day's only STRONG SELL print, it is the weakest-positioned name we own, and taking 30% off the table converts a twenty-session risk drift into a realised gain of about We keep, because the equipment cycle itself has not broken. OPERATIONAL: originated by ADR-0020 Trail Erosion, session 20 — stop re-based 272.00 -> 184.00 (-32.35%) with zero size reduction; FIRST fire on this watermark, therefore VETO-IMMUNE to US-17/US-18/US-34/US-22/US-30 (the STRONG SELL is a lone flip out of AVOID x3 and would be declined on its own). L2 independently satisfied (close < 184.00 trail AND Est_12W negative). Valuation tier-bump SUPPRESSED by G2 (Est_12W 179.43 = 2.90x the 61.80 DCF anchor). No ADR-0012 leg: armed via T12_Progress 102.18 (US-26 verified genuine, Gain_ATR +0.93 / +4.32%) but US-33 blocks tick (c), conviction rose (no b), label is STRONG SELL not NO TRADE (no d), no second Exit_Warning (no a). Retained, trail 184.00; watermark 272.00 re-bases to 184.00 once the decrease is observed. · news |
| NET | Cloudflare, Inc. | 277.58 | SELL 30% | 277.58 | 283.72 | 278.75 (+0.4%) | 277.66 (+0.0%) | 287.10 (+3.4%) | Cloudflare has now closed below our risk line for a second straight session and undercut the prior day's low, printing a fresh low of 273.21 while conviction decayed from. The model itself wants the stock roughly 8% higher before it is a buy again, and the shares have lost their 10- and 20-day averages. The Q2 beat and raised full-year guidance keep the business case intact, so we are trimming 30% rather than exiting — the retained carry Salesforce's read-across print on 26 August. OPERATIONAL: executes the 08-24 pre-committed trigger (US-35) — BOTH limbs fired (2nd consecutive settled close below 283.72, now -2.16%; AND close below the 280.18 prior low). L2 negative-12wk limb NOT met (Est_12W +3.43% alive) — basis is the pre-commitment plus the confirmed break, stated explicitly. Tier-bump available on MoS -8.50 but SUPPRESSED by G2 (Est_12W 287.10 = 9.73x the 29.51 DCF) and independently declined under US-19 (execute the first fire at the committed tier). Entry_Distance_ATR +1.45. Retained, trail 283.72; watermark 301.75 re-bases to 283.72 on an observed decrease. WARNING: input/usportfolio.json still reads on the 21-session duplicate-row defect; marked as @ 274.25 per us_transactions.jsonl, and the monitor cannot see this breach. · news |
| OKTA | Okta Inc. | 130.61 | SELL 30% | 130.61 | 140.55⚠ | 131.49 (+0.7%) | 135.72 (+3.9%) | 141.97 (+8.7%) | Okta has closed below our risk line for five straight sessions, the breach is now 7.1% — the deepest in the book — and it was the one holding that failed to join a broadly higher session. The position is 6.6% underwater and trades below its 10-, 20- and 50-day averages. The company reports after the close on 26 August with four consecutive beats behind it and recent broker upgrades intact, which is exactly why we take 30% rather than half: the retained carry the print, but the risk line has been ignored long enough. OPERATIONAL: executes the 08-20 pre-committed trigger, fired 08-21, RE-VERIFIED a third time. NOT a profit-take — PROFIT_ARMED via T12_Progress 92.00 is a US-26 artifact on a LOSING position (Gain_ATR -1.52, -6.57%) and must never originate. NOT a NoTrade sell — US-17 bars a bare NO TRADE label as a basis. Basis = pre-commitment + 5-session decisive stop break. Catalyst-aware hold (own earnings 08-26 AMC) OVERRIDDEN by the decisive-stop-break carve-out. Tier-bump is the one case tonight where G2 does NOT suppress (Est_12W 141.97 / DCF 107.59 = 1.32x) but is DECLINED on US-19 + alive forward (Est_4W +3.91%, Est_12W +8.70%) + unrepudiated Citizens/Wells Fargo upgrades. Retained, trail 140.55; watermark 144.84 re-bases to 140.55 on an observed decrease. · news |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 213.05 | HOLD | 213.05 | 217.07⚠ | 213.69 (+0.3%) | 216.20 (+1.5%) | 227.81 (+6.9%) | Nvidia rebounded 2.2% and reclaimed its 50-day average the session before its quarterly report, with the model's conviction rising and a 12-week view still nearly 7% above the current price. Wall Street is 58 buy / 2 hold / 1 sell into the print. We hold the full through the event rather than de-risking into strength. OPERATIONAL: the pending 08-24 30% trim is DE-ESCALATED TO ZERO under US-32 — part of its basis dissolved (conviction rose, close +2.19%, label HOLD not sell, Est_12W +6.93% alive, 1.85% gap to trail is marginal not decisive per US-22). Independently ranked 4th on dollar bleed and would not have taken a slot. No ADR-0012 leg: US-26 unverifiable (Avg_Cost blank), zero ticks fire, US-33 blocks the T12 limb. Model Stop_Price 201.33 is a loosening, REFUSED under US-29; trail holds 217.07. PRE-COMMITTED TRIGGER (US-35): a settled close below 217.07 that is ALSO below the post-print session low, OR any settled close below 201.33, fires SELL (30%) immediately. · news |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | 932.97 | HOLD | 932.97 | 929.07 | 943.58 (+1.1%) | 1005.00 (+7.7%) | 1117.15 (+19.7%) | Micron reclaimed its risk line with a 2.5% gain, undoing last night's single-session break, and the news repudiates the scare that caused it: 2026 high-bandwidth memory capacity is fully sold out, sixteen customer agreements run through 2030 backed by roughly $100bn of committed volume, and the next quarter is guided to a record ~$50bn at ~86% gross margin. It carries the strongest forward view we own and the top quality rank in the universe. Hold. OPERATIONAL: 08-24 pre-committed trigger UNTRIGGERED (needed a 2nd consecutive settled close below 929.07 or a close below the 887.60 low; neither occurred). US-22 settled-close self-heal applies. Model Stop_Price 906.00 is a loosening, REFUSED under US-29; trail holds 929.07, watermark 929.07 (0% ADR-0020 erosion, the cleanest risk line in the book). · news |
| NBIS | Nebius Group, N.V. | 221.97 | HOLD | 221.97 | 213.00 | 223.36 (+0.6%) | 242.56 (+9.3%) | 263.78 (+18.8%) | Nebius posted the book's best session at +5.2% and reclaimed its risk line decisively, now sitting 4.2% clear of it with a 12-week view almost 19% above the current price. Nothing here argues for cutting. Hold the core. OPERATIONAL: ADR-0020 erosion -9.63%, below the 15% threshold. Model Stop_Price 212.12 is a marginal loosening, REFUSED under US-29; trail holds 213.00. The standing overlay override ("keep the core, no adds until the Meta question clears") is honoured as a RESTRAINT — NBIS is excluded from any post-print NVDA read-through add — while noting it is 51 days stale and under US-31 has lost origination force. WATCH: Event Horizon flags an NVDA ~9.3% NBIS stake lock-up window opening around 09-08 (date unresolved) — structural overhang, not a sell basis. · news |
| GOOGL | Alphabet, Inc.- Class A | 346.96 | HOLD | 346.96 | 333.68 | 349.67 (+0.8%) | 344.23 (-0.8%) | 364.75 (+5.1%) | Alphabet drifted 0.3% lower and the sell signal that flashed last night has already faded to no-signal. The position is up 182% on cost, sits 4% above our risk line, and the 12-week view is still 5% higher. We raise nothing and cut nothing — the stop does the work. OPERATIONAL: 08-24 pre-committed trigger UNTRIGGERED (needed a 2nd consecutive settled STRONG SELL - REDUCE or a close below 333.68; label went STRONG SELL -> NO TRADE and the close is +3.98% above invalidation). ADR-0012 armed (T12_Progress 95.12) and US-26 VERIFIED genuine (Gain_ATR +33.60, +182.08%) but NO tick fires: (a) PROFIT_ARMED is the only warning; (b) is a NoTrade label-transition artifact per US-29 (see systemic #1); (c) Est_12W 364.75 > 1.02 x 346.96 = 353.90; (d) only ONE settled NO TRADE — intraday prints do not build a settled streak (L4/US-7/US-11). Armed-but-not-fired -> trail-raise; NoTrade row prints no stop, so 333.68 stands. Ex-dividend 09-04 (~6bps, immaterial). PRE-COMMITTED TRIGGER (US-35) unchanged: a SECOND consecutive settled STRONG SELL - REDUCE, OR any settled close below 333.68, fires SELL (30%) immediately. · news |
| LLY | Eli Lilly & Co | 1233.66 | HOLD | 1233.66 | 1168.46 | 1244.99 (+0.9%) | 1261.18 (+2.2%) | 1354.82 (+9.8%) | Lilly slipped 1.1% but remains above all four of its moving averages with every one of them rising, sits 5% clear of its risk line, and carries a 12-week view nearly 10% higher. The signal engine went quiet; the trend did not. Hold. OPERATIONAL: ADR-0012 tick (b) fires on the letter (conviction and is DECLINED for the second consecutive session — the collapse is entirely a label transition into NoTrade cv0 ("Consensus conflict + low conviction"), a US-29 structural artifact, not deterioration (see systemic #1). US-26 cannot be completed — Avg_Cost is blank — so the T12_Progress 91.06 arm is unverifiable by hand and cannot originate. Model prints no stop on a NoTrade row; trail holds 1168.46. ADR-0020 erosion -1.00%. · news |
| SPCX | Space Exploration Tech Corp | — | HOLD | — | 129.00 | n/a | n/a | n/a | SpaceX has no public quote, so we judge it on news rather than signals. The share-unlock schedule is proceeding and the market keeps absorbing it: the first and largest tranche on 6 August freed more shares than the entire IPO and the stock rose 35% in five sessions; the 20 August tranche released a further 7% and the stock eased about 5% — a materially milder reaction. Fundamentals are described as largely unchanged. We hold on the manual stop. OPERATIONAL: muted on signals (permanent no_close); NO Action, conviction, entry or target is synthesized. Classification: WATCH, not concern. Next pressure points: ~7% block around 09-10, the large tranche near Q3 earnings in early November, the 180-day expiry in December; Musk's 6.4bn shares locked until June 2027. Event Horizon also flags MSCI 08-31 and the S&P DJI September review announcement 09-04. Manual stop 129.00 (~4.4% below the last quoted level) is a live line, not a formality. AUTO-UNMUTES the moment it prints a non-null Close. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
161 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.171 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
52 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.