Recommendations
1 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| KLAC | KLA Corporation | 183.99 | SELL 30% | 183.99 | 184.00⚠ | 185.38 (+0.8%) | 182.12 (-1.0%) | 180.05 (-2.1%) | We are cutting 30% of KLA on risk discipline. The protective stop under this position has been walked down from to - a 32% retreat over eighteen sessions - and in all that time the position has never once been reduced. A risk line that keeps moving away while the holding never shrinks is a risk failure, so we take the mandated 30% off and keep. The business case is intact: the CEO says momentum is accelerating into 2027, advanced-packaging revenue is guided up more than 70%, and the street-high target implies 60% upside with no sell ratings - which is exactly why this is a trim and not an exit. Shares are still 5% below on the twelve-week view, so we bank a small gain and reduce the risk. OPS: ADR-0020 Trail Erosion session 18, first fire on the 272.00 watermark, VETO-IMMUNE per US-36 (US-17/US-18/34/US-22/US-30 do not apply). Corroborating not originating: Target_12Week 180.05 is 2.1% below close (L2); 3rd settled close under the pre-cut 193.38. ADR-0012 adds no leg - armed via T12_Progress 102.19 so US-33 blocks tick (c); cv rose (no b); AVOID not NO TRADE (no d); no 2nd Exit_Warning (no a). Valuation tier-bump SUPPRESSED by G2: T12 180.05 / DCF 61.80 = 2.91x. Watermark re-bases to 184.00 ONLY on an observed decrease. · news |
| GOOGL | Alphabet, Inc.- Class A | 344.82 | SELL 30% | 344.82 | 332.73 | 346.45 (+0.5%) | 342.66 (-0.6%) | 362.90 (+5.2%) | Banking 30% of a position that is up 180% from cost. Alphabet has gone quiet for eight straight sessions - the model has had no active view on it since mid-August - and it still trades below its short-term averages after the AI-leadership shake-up and a capex guide lifted to -205bn with more flagged for 2027. Against that, Berkshire Hathaway added roughly $17bn in the second quarter, making Alphabet its third-largest holding, and the Marvell TPU partnership was just extended. The twelve-week projection is still 5% higher, so this is a profit-take, not a change of mind: we take a third off the table and keep. OPS: ADR-0012 armed via the Gain_ATR limb (33.04, US-26 verified - Unreal_PnL +180.34%), so US-33 does not apply. Fire tick (d) - 8 consecutive NO TRADE prints. Tick (c) does NOT fire: 362.90 > 1.02 x 344.82 = 351.72. Single soft tick -> profit_take_1 = 30% (US-19, first fire, no escalation). US-37 escalation - carded 08-19 and 08-20 unexecuted, this is session 3 and needs an explicit Disposition. MoS -0.68 is above the -3 amplify threshold, no tier bump. Trail held 332.73. · news |
| OKTA | Okta Inc. | 135.14 | SELL 30% | 135.14 | 140.55⚠ | 135.58 (+0.3%) | 142.52 (+5.5%) | 151.57 (+12.2%) | Okta has now closed below its protective stop for two sessions running and the model has flipped to its strongest sell reading, ranking it the number-one candidate to reduce. The stock is trading under all its short-term averages - a rally being sold into a downtrend - and second-quarter results land on 26 August with a plausible 10% move either way. We take 30% off ahead of that and keep. We are deliberately not cutting deeper: Citizens upgraded the stock this month to Market Outperform with a target and Wells Fargo to Overweight at the Permiso acquisition and the expanded Google Cloud partnership are real product progress, and the model still projects the shares 12% higher over twelve weeks. This is a risk cut on a broken line, not a verdict on the business. OPS: 08-20 pre-committed trigger FIRED on the first limb - 2nd consecutive settled close below 140.55 (134.16 then 135.14, -3.85%). US-18/US-34 satisfied via the INVALIDATION limb, not a lone label flip. Valuation tier-bump DECLINED despite MoS -5.01 and G2 NOT suppressing (T12 151.57 / DCF 107.59 = 1.41x, the only reliable DCF anchor tonight): governing cell RallySell_BearTrend|sell is -6 (n=10, hit_1w.222), forward is alive so L2's negative-12wk limb is unmet, and the news tape is two upgrades. US-19 - execute the first fire at the committed tier. Catalyst-aware hold permits a trim on a decisive stop break. Trail held 140.55. · news |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies Inc. | 179.94 | BUY — QUEUED @157.65 | 157.65 | 149.34 | 179.58 (+13.9%) | 187.01 (+18.6%) | 203.25 (+28.9%) | Palantir is the strongest business in tonight's buy pool and the only candidate that passes both our conviction bar and our fundamental quality screen - it ranks 6th of 52 names on quality with a near-perfect financial-strength score and 115% revenue growth. Second-quarter revenue grew 93%, US commercial 149%, government 90%, and management raised full-year guidance by roughly. But the shares have run 33% in a month and sit right under resistance near on about 80 times next year's earnings. So we place a limit order at - the model's own entry level, near the volume-weighted average price - rather than buying into the resistance shelf. If it comes back to us we buy with a stop at; if it does not, we have lost nothing. Position size is deliberately halved because the valuation is stretched. OPS: adj = 78 - 10 (val, MoS -12.93 full haircut) + 2 (PullbackBuy_VWAP|buy, the sole positive actionable buy cell) = 70, clear of the 65 floor. Quality gate PASSES - first time in 5 sessions (US-20). NO CHASE: Entry_Distance_ATR -3.11, close is 14.1% above the model entry; limit is the anchor's printed Entry_Price (provenance rule), between VWAP 156.51 and EMA20 161.59. Fill odds are poor - no_chase_queue n=24 at +1.51% [cost], US-21 says these limits structurally do not fill in this regime; queued anyway as the model-faithful action. Single STRONG BUY print (NO TRADE x2 -> WATCH cv59 -> STRONG BUY cv78), low stability confidence. Size: 0.8549 x 200k x 20% = x 0.5 = ->. Est_* are computed off the 179.94 close and overstate a filled-limit outcome. Target_Price 174.28 sits below tonight's close, an artefact of a target struck off a pullback entry. Est_12W 203.25 is 4.36x the 46.62 DCF anchor - widest in the book. expires_on 2026-08-26 (3 sessions). · news |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 214.72 | NO ACTION | — | 217.07⚠ | 215.23 | 215.89 | 230.36 | Nvidia has slipped below its protective stop for a second session, but we are holding into second-quarter results on 26 August rather than trimming three days before the print. The signal itself is not deteriorating - the model's conviction actually rose, the label stayed at hold, and the twelve-week projection is still 7% higher. Bank of America expects revenue of -95bn against $91bn guided and sees guidance going to -108bn, calling it a possible multi-quarter upgrade cycle; 36 analysts rate it a buy and it trades on 25 times forward earnings. The risks are named - up to $5bn of China revenue hostage to policy, and of insider selling in three months. If it closes below a third time, or below today's low, we sell immediately, earnings or not. OPS: qualified for DISPOSE and DISPLACED at slot on dollar rank (vs KLAC GOOGL OKTA) - the skill caps the slate at 3. The 08-20 pre-commitment IS satisfied (-1.08%, 2nd consecutive close), but ADR-0012 is ARMED AND NOT FIRED: armed via T12_Progress 93.21; cv ROSE (no b); Est_12W +7.3% alive (no c); HOLD twice not NO TRADE (no d); no 2nd Exit_Warning (no a). L2 unmet - 12wk is positive. Earnings 08-26, 3 sessions out, +/-6.75% band, horizon stance hold-through; also the marking event for MU/KLAC/NBIS/NET. RE-COMMITTED TRIGGER (US-35, tightened): 3rd consecutive settled close below 217.07 OR any settled close below 214.50 fires SELL 30% immediately, catalyst notwithstanding. Model Stop_Price 204.49 is a loosening, REFUSED under US-29. Avg_Cost still blank - US-26 cannot be hand-verified. · news |
| LLY | Eli Lilly & Co | 1255.40 | HOLD | — | 1168.46 | 1268.80 | 1281.21 | 1384.93 | Eli Lilly rose 0.9% to and is back within 3% of its 52-week high. The position is far enough in profit to be flagged for potential profit-taking, but nothing has deteriorated - the model's conviction moved by a single point, the label is still hold, and the twelve-week projection is 10% higher. So instead of selling we raise the protective stop beneath it from to, locking in more of the gain while leaving the position to run. OPS: PROFIT_ARMED via T12_Progress 90.65; armed but NOT fired - cv is a 1-pt move (<20, no b), HOLD not NO TRADE (no d), Est_12W +10.3% alive (no c), US-33 blocks (c) on the T12 limb regardless. Model Stop_Price 1168.46 is ABOVE the standing 1159.93 - US-29 permits raises, tightening taken. Avg_Cost still blank - fill it. |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | 966.78 | HOLD | — | 929.07 | 978.64 | 1026.30 | 1222.90 | Micron gave back 0.8% to after opening near and the model has no active view on it for a second session. That is not a reason to sell. It remains the highest-quality name we own on the fundamental screen - ranked 1st of 52 - sits 12.5% above cost with no exit warning, and carries the strongest forward projection in the book at 26% over twelve weeks. We hold with the stop unchanged at. OPS: US-17 - a bare NO TRADE label is never a dispose basis (and US-38 removed the quantified veto that used to argue the opposite direction). Gain_ATR 2.02. Model prints no stop; the 929.07 trail set on 08-20's low stands. |
| NBIS | Nebius Group, N.V. | 219.13 | HOLD | — | 213.00 | 220.32 | 241.23 | 253.98 | Nebius slipped 0.5% to, comfortably above the level we set after the convertible-offering shock. The model has had no active view for six sessions, there is no exit warning, the position is 3.6% in profit and the twelve-week projection is 16% higher. We hold and add nothing - the standing instruction to keep the core but make no additions until the Meta relationship is clarified still governs, including through next week's Nvidia results. OPS: US-17 - bare NO TRADE is not a dispose basis. ADR-0020 erosion -9.63%, below the 15% threshold. Standing overlay override OUTRANKS Event Horizon's add-after-print stance on the 08-26 NVDA read-through; NBIS excluded from any post-print add. Overlay is 48 days stale (US-31) - it restrains here, which is the safe direction, but needs re-confirming. |
| SPCX | Space Exploration Tech Corp | — | HOLD | — | 129.00 | n/a | n/a | n/a | SpaceX has no tradable quote in our data, so we assess it on news alone and make no signal-driven call. The second block of insider shares - roughly 319 million from early employees and investors - was released on schedule today, and the stock has drifted back to its listing price on the week. That is absorption, not breakdown: the first release on 6 August more than doubled the public float and the stock rose 6% that day, and Morgan Stanley still reads fundamentals as largely unchanged. We hold on a manual stop at now only about 4% below the quoted level, so this is a live line. The next pressure points are a 1.3 billion-share release around third-quarter results in early November and the 180-day expiry in December. OPS: permanent no_close - muted on signals, no Action/conviction/entry/target synthesized, news-assessed per the edge-case rule. Classification: watch. Auto-unmutes on a non-null Close. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
154 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.148 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
52 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.