US Semiconductors — End-of-Day record | algo2alpha

Total-Return Index 97.6 -2.4% since inception Performance ›

Today's recommendations

0 to acquire · 2 to dispose

Ticker	Name	Close	Action	Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice.	Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice.	1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close.	4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close.	12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close.	Rationale
TSM	Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR)	404.25	SELL ALL	404.25	375.56	n/a	n/a	347.18 (-14.1%)	Exiting TSMC in full. The business is excellent - record Q2 revenue of (+36% y/y) at a 67.7% gross margin, Q3 guided to -45.8B - but the trading signal has been absent for a week and the model's 12-week forward view has been negative for nine straight sessions, now -14.1% below spot. Thursday's +7% jump was sector beta from Microsoft's cloud results, not a TSMC-specific re-rating: the stock added just +0.23% on Friday and gave back its entire opening gap (419.50 open to 404.25 close). We take the loss rather than hold a position the model cannot form a view on. OPERATIONAL: re-issues the exit decided 07-27 and re-decided 07-28/29/30, unfilled five sessions by the stalled executor (last_run_date 2026-07-18, 14 days) - the missed 07-31 open fill at 419.50 : CLAUDE.md sec9 sustained-degradation - NoTrade cv0 in sessions (07-23/24/27/28/30/31) plus a 9-session negative 12wk. The 375.56 stop is RECLAIMED (+7.6%) so L2 is not claimed. PROFIT_ARMED is the 18th consecutive FALSE ARM (Gain_ATR -1.67, T12_Progress 116.44 on a -7.71% loss) - this is loss-control, not a profit-take, so the ADR-0012 never-100% cap does not apply. G1 n/a (cv0); G3 does not block (row is neither bullish nor positive-forward); G2 suppresses valuation-amplify (DCF vs is a broken artifact) so val_adj 0, no tier bump, sec9 amplify-only respected. Re-entry trigger unchanged and still half-armed: EMA100 reclaimed (404.25 vs 398.77) but NO bullish-family print at conviction >=65. Realized - (cost 438.02, -7.71%). Action range 399.18-409.32 (close +- 0.25 ATR). Execute Mon 2026-08-03 open, reprice if the open gaps >~1.5% (L8). · news
AMD	Advanced Micro Devices	476.15	SELL 30%	476.15	475.00	n/a	n/a	481.46 (+1.1%)	Cutting a third of the AMD position ahead of Tuesday's Q2 report, keeping. Friday told us something: the stock opened +5.1% at 510.28, ran to 515.62, then sold off all day to close at 476.15 - the session low, -7.7% off its own high, on heavy volume. A rally made and wholly rejected inside one session is a confirmed lower high. With the shares -27.7% from their June record, trading near 90x forward earnings, and a binary earnings print two sessions away, carrying the full position is a sizing risk we do not need to take. The core stays because the fundamental setup is genuinely strong - guidance of (+46% y/y) with server CPU revenue expected up more than 70%. BASIS: CLAUDE.md sec9 signal degradation + USC-5 - confirmed lower high (the exact carve-out sec9's catalyst-aware hold reserves for a trim inside a <=5-session earnings window, and the condition the 07-30 card cited as ABSENT), 2nd consecutive NoTrade cv0, and a dead 12wk forward view (498..46 = +1.12%, below the 1.02x threshold; ADR-0012 tick-(c) applied as a deterioration marker). The 475.00 trail was NOT breached - intraday low 475.76 (within), close held it by - so the written full-exit escalation does NOT fire and is not claimed. Loss-control, NOT a profit-take: PROFIT_ARMED is the 3rd consecutive FALSE ARM (Gain_ATR -0.90, T12_Progress 98.90 on a -7.74% loss). ONE TIER only - the optional_trim counterfactual (n=4, median withheld 1wk -0.9%, 'cost') supports de-risking but argues one tier; G2 suppresses the valuation-amplify that would bump on MoS_FV -15.00 (DCF vs is a broken artifact on a 45%-growth name) so val_adj 0. Structure: below EMA5/10/20/50 and VWAP -7.14%, still +11.9% over EMA100 and +37.7% over EMA200 - broken intermediate trend inside an intact long-term one, which is why this is a trim and not an exit. TRAIL DELIBERATELY NOT RATCHETED into the binary print. ESCALATION STANDS for the retained : a close below 475.00 re-fires the full exit at the next open, no re-litigation. Realized on the tranche - (52 x -39.93, -7.74%). Action range 465.04-487.26 (close +- 0.25 ATR). Execute Mon 2026-08-03 open, reprice if the open gaps >~1.5% (L8). · news
QCOM	Qualcomm Incorporated	147.61	WATCH	147.61	131.76	n/a	171.59 (+16.2%)	84.14 (-43.0%)	Passing on Qualcomm. It has been the closest thing to a buy on this board for three sessions, and this week every reason for that interest broke at once. The 07-29 quarterly report missed on earnings (vs) and, more importantly, guided next quarter to -2.25 against a consensus - roughly a 10% cut - with handset revenue down 20% and management pointing to industry-wide cost inflation in wafers, packaging and memory. The shares have closed lower five sessions running and now trade below every moving average. Our own valuation refresh cut its estimated worth below the current price and flagged the quality screen as failing. Auto revenue growing 61% and a called handset bottom make this interesting again later, not now. REJECT BASIS (all four independent): (1) adj conviction 54 is 11 under the 65 floor and WATCH is not an actionable label; conviction has TURNED DOWN, reversing the rising-conviction case cited on 07-30. (2) HARD QUALITY GATE - Quality_Pass flipped True->False on the freshly regenerated fairvalue (F-Score 6, Quality_Rank; the gate blocks new entries outright. (3) The DCF anchor collapsed ->, now BELOW the close - the valuation cushion that justified the earlier interest has been withdrawn by the model itself; val_adj -4 on MoS_FV -0.80. (4) L6 in the down direction - fresh post-earnings guidance cut; plus Target_12Week 84.14 = -43.0% on a non-bearish row (systemic finding #4), RSI 28.87, VWAP distance -13.96%. Re-arm trigger: a PullbackBuy_VWAP reprint (L1) OR promotion to BUY at conviction >=65 WITH the quality gate passing. Logged direction:none so the counterfactual grader prices the pass. · news

Outcome & track record

How accurate the calls have been.

13 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →

-0.548 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.

24 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.

Portfolio & signals

Every name we scanned, and where it stands.

Ticker	Name	Close	Signal The chart pattern the engine detected on this name. Hover a signal for its one-line definition; click it for the full setup/trigger rules, the trade box it produces, and the newsletter issue that teaches the underlying concept.	Action	Conv	1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close.	4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close.	12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close.
AMDH	Advanced Micro Devices, Inc	476.15	NoTrade	NO TRADE	0	n/a	n/a	481.46 (+1.1%)
TSMH	Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing C	404.25	NoTrade	NO TRADE	0	n/a	n/a	347.18 (-14.1%)
AAOI	Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.	94.32	FailedBreakout_Down_20D	AVOID	76	n/a	n/a	53.76 (-43.0%)
KLAC	KLA Corporation	182.82	FailedBreakout_Down_20D	AVOID	76	n/a	n/a	124.75 (-31.8%)
MRVL	Marvell Technology	187.56	FailedBreakout_Down_20D	AVOID	76	n/a	n/a	107.17 (-42.9%)
TSLA	Tesla Inc	311.21	FailedBreakout_Down_20D	AVOID	76	n/a	n/a	177.39 (-43.0%)
AMKR	Amkor Technology	49.87	FailedBreakout_Down_20D	AVOID	70	n/a	n/a	28.43 (-43.0%)
GLW	Corning Incorporated	138.25	FailedBreakout_Down_20D	AVOID	70	n/a	n/a	78.80 (-43.0%)
ARM	Arm Holdings plc	239.69	FailedBreakout_Down_20D	AVOID	68	n/a	n/a	136.62 (-43.0%)
AVGO	Broadcom Inc	389.28	FailedBreakout_Down_20D	AVOID	64	n/a	n/a	354.67 (-8.9%)
QCOM	Qualcomm Incorporated	147.61	ReversalUp_Oversold	WATCH	58	154.80 (+4.9%)	171.59 (+16.2%)	84.14 (-43.0%)
ASML	ASML Holding NV	1629.00	NoTrade	NO TRADE	0	n/a	n/a	1453.57 (-10.8%)
ASX	ASE Technology Holding	35.17	NoTrade	NO TRADE	0	n/a	n/a	30.36 (-13.7%)
COHR	Coherent Corp.	262.89	NoTrade	NO TRADE	0	n/a	n/a	149.85 (-43.0%)
LRCX	Lam Research Corp	293.02	NoTrade	NO TRADE	0	n/a	n/a	206.84 (-29.4%)
MU	Micron Technology, Inc.	823.03	NoTrade	NO TRADE	0	n/a	n/a	730.66 (-11.2%)
NVDA	NVIDIA Corporation	200.75	NoTrade	NO TRADE	0	n/a	n/a	177.29 (-11.7%)
SNDK	Sandisk Corporation	1214.83	NoTrade	NO TRADE	0	n/a	n/a	692.45 (-43.0%)
INTC	Intel Corporation	90.20	NoTrade	NO TRADE	0	n/a	n/a	53.24 (-41.0%)
LITE	Lumentum Holdings	713.94	NoTrade	NO TRADE	0	n/a	n/a	409.16 (-42.7%)

US Semiconductors — End-of-Day Verdict

0 to acquire · 2 to dispose

How accurate the calls have been.

Every name we scanned, and where it stands.

Earlier end-of-day records.