Total-Return Index 97.5 -0.7% (4W) Performance ›
Today's recommendations
0 to acquire · 2 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML | ASML Holding NV | 1575.15 | SELL ALL | 1575.15 | 1622.58⚠ | 1588.41 (+0.8%) | 1619.34 (+2.8%) | 1373.90 (-12.8%) | ASML closed decisively below its stop at the session low. The model now carries a bearish signal and projects about 13% downside over twelve weeks, so we exit the whole position. Monday's AI-slowdown sell-off hit ASML harder than the chip sector, and the valuation offers no cushion. The order book is intact, so any re-entry needs a fresh buy signal. OPERATIONAL: L origination - close 1575.15 vs stop 1622.58 (-2.92%, -0.73 ATR, bottom 6% of day range) + Target_12Week 1373.90 (-12.78%); R second leg = engine RallySell_BearTrend AVOID cv48 'do not add'. V1 escalation 30%->100% (basis strengthened NT->NT->stop break). ASML -7.25% vs mandate median -6.23% (not beta). G suppresses valuation amplify (DCF 839 broken anchor). Realized ~- (-13.78%) vs cost 1826.98. S: a gap up does not cancel. 1wk/4wk built on bearish-row Target_Price 1619.34 (above close) - read with caution; f=0.30. ADR-0020 -6.56% (not the basis). · news |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 210.96 | SELL 51% | 210.96 | 205.91 | 215.06 (+1.9%) | 224.61 (+6.5%) | 216.60 (+2.7%) | NVIDIA closed below its 50-day average for the first time in this episode, after three straight closes below its trailing stop. Both de-risking steps we wrote down in advance are now due, so we sell about half the position. The business is strong, and NVIDIA held up better than peers in Monday's AI-slowdown sell-off, which is why the other half stays. OPERATIONAL: W1/Q tiers - 09-10 trigger (nd sub-221.79 close) [09-11 card voided by execution vocab] + 09-11 trigger (close < EMA50 214.95); close 210.96 < EMA50 214.79. W counterpoint weighed: -3.36% vs median -6.23% (rd best), conv - so no escalation beyond the written tiers. L not met (12wk 216.60 +2.67%; above stop). Retained, stop 205.91. NEXT TRIGGERS: settled close < 205.91 -> further 50%; close < 197.31 (engine stop) -> full exit. Realized ~-vs cost 226.80. f=0.30. ADR-0020: live 205.91 vs peak 221.79 = -7.16% (inside 15%). · news |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing | 418.01 | HOLD | 418.01 | 415.38 | 424.78 (+1.6%) | 440.59 (+5.4%) | 416.97 (-0.2%) | TSMC fell less than the chip sector on Monday and is still above its trailing stop, so we hold, with a written rule to exit if the stop breaks. OPERATIONAL: HOLD cv61, <20-pt collapse), above EMA100/200, -3.52% vs median -6.23%. 12wk 416.97 inside the board-wide regime (13/20 below close, V). PROFIT_ARMED phantom (Gain_ATR -1.77) discarded (U4). TRIGGER: settled close < 415.38 (414.27 from the 09-16 ex-div session,) -> full exit (T5 stub floor, = 0.13% of book). · news |
| — | ASE Technology Holding | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | ASE Technology has the strongest bullish reading left on our board, but it is only a watch signal with no buy trigger, and it fails our quality screen on negative free cash flow. OPERATIONAL: WATCH cv63, no buy print; Quality_Pass FALSE; adj 63-10-10=43. Q4: needs two consecutive bullish buy prints after this tape. |
| — | Marvell Technology | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Marvell gave back its analyst-initiation pop and dropped to a watch signal, and it still fails our quality screen. OPERATIONAL: BUY cv69 -> WATCH cv61 (-7.32% on the day); Quality_Pass FALSE; adj 41. Fourth round-trip of the same pop pattern. |
| — | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | AMD's buy signal faded to a watch in Monday's sell-off, so there is no entry. Re-entry needs a fresh buy print above our conviction floor. OPERATIONAL: WATCH cv61; adj 61-10 (USC-) = 51; note B suppresses val_adj. Re-arm: a BUY print with raw cv >= 75 (clears the -10 floor). |
Outcome & track record
How accurate the calls have been.
48 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.226 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
53 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.
Signal-type track record How each signal *type* has performed across ALL of this book's past decisions — not a per-stock note. 'bias' is the conviction nudge (+/-) applied to a fresh signal of that type; n = sample size, hit_1w = share that hit the 1-week target. Reliable cells earn a boost; weak ones a haircut.
How each signal type has performed across this book's past decisions (aggregate, not per-stock) — and the conviction nudge it earns.
- FailedBreakdown_Up_20D (buy): 6 past trades, 40% hit the 1-week target → -2 conviction nudge.
- FailedBreakdown_Up_20D (sell): 14 past trades, 69% hit the 1-week target → +4 conviction nudge.
- NoTrade (sell): 18 past trades, 18% hit the 1-week target → -6 conviction nudge.
- RallySell_BearTrend (sell): 5 past trades, 40% hit the 1-week target → -2 conviction nudge.
Portfolio & signals
Every name we scanned, and where it stands.
| Ticker | Name | Close | Signal The chart pattern the engine detected on this name. Hover a signal for its one-line definition; click it for the full setup/trigger rules, the trade box it produces, and the newsletter issue that teaches the underlying concept. | Action | Conv | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSMH | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing C | 418.01 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | HOLD | 61 | 424.78 (+1.6%) | 440.59 (+5.4%) | 416.97 (-0.2%) |
| NVDAH | NVIDIA Corporation | 210.96 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | HOLD | 49 | 215.06 (+1.9%) | 224.61 (+6.5%) | 216.60 (+2.7%) |
| ASMLH | ASML Holding NV | 1575.15 | RallySell_BearTrend | AVOID | 48 | 1588.41 (+0.8%) | 1619.34 (+2.8%) | 1373.90 (-12.8%) |
| ASX | ASE Technology Holding | 37.08 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | WATCH | 63 | 38.12 (+2.8%) | 40.53 (+9.3%) | 37.89 (+2.2%) |
| AAOI | Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. | 95.76 | RallySell_BearTrend | AVOID | 61 | 96.12 (+0.4%) | 96.96 (+1.3%) | 54.58 (-43.0%) |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc | 493.41 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | WATCH | 61 | 507.50 (+2.9%) | 540.36 (+9.5%) | 505.31 (+2.4%) |
| AMKR | Amkor Technology | 47.12 | RallySell_BearTrend | AVOID | 61 | 46.57 (-1.2%) | 45.30 (-3.9%) | 26.86 (-43.0%) |
| KLAC | KLA Corporation | 169.09 | RallySell_BearTrend | AVOID | 61 | 168.48 (-0.4%) | 167.05 (-1.2%) | 111.16 (-34.3%) |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology | 218.82 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | WATCH | 61 | 227.69 (+4.1%) | 248.37 (+13.5%) | 222.64 (+1.7%) |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc | 344.72 | BreakdownDown_20D | AVOID | 55 | 314.09 (-8.9%) | 253.69 (-26.4%) | 264.82 (-23.2%) |
| SNDK | Sandisk Corporation | 1551.99 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | WATCH | 54 | 1614.87 (+4.1%) | 1761.59 (+13.5%) | 1717.67 (+10.7%) |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | 924.03 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | WATCH | 49 | 953.59 (+3.2%) | 1022.55 (+10.7%) | 1002.56 (+8.5%) |
| INTC | Intel Corporation | 97.19 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | WATCH | 49 | 100.72 (+3.6%) | 108.94 (+12.1%) | 90.41 (-7.0%) |
| LITE | Lumentum Holdings | 835.03 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | WATCH | 49 | 876.00 (+4.9%) | 971.59 (+16.4%) | 936.49 (+12.2%) |
| COHR | Coherent Corp. | 266.50 | RallySell_BearTrend | AVOID | 48 | 263.12 (-1.3%) | 255.25 (-4.2%) | 193.60 (-27.4%) |
| LRCX | Lam Research Corp | 273.49 | RallySell_BearTrend | AVOID | 48 | 274.86 (+0.5%) | 278.04 (+1.7%) | 213.73 (-21.9%) |
| QCOM | Qualcomm Incorporated | 180.15 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | WATCH | 46 | 185.53 (+3.0%) | 198.10 (+10.0%) | 178.70 (-0.8%) |
| ARM | Arm Holdings plc | 239.01 | RallySell_BearTrend | AVOID | 37 | 234.94 (-1.7%) | 225.46 (-5.7%) | 180.36 (-24.5%) |
| GLW | Corning Incorporated | 143.60 | NoTrade | NO TRADE | 0 | n/a | n/a | 118.64 (-17.4%) |
| TSLA | Tesla Inc | 358.97 | NoTrade | NO TRADE | 0 | n/a | n/a | 341.34 (-4.9%) |
Archive
Earlier end-of-day records.
- 14 September 2026 0 acquire / 2 dispose EOD 2026-09-14
- 11 September 2026 1 acquire / 2 dispose EOD 2026-09-11
- 10 September 2026 0 acquire / 0 dispose EOD 2026-09-10
- 9 September 2026 0 acquire / 0 dispose EOD 2026-09-09
- 8 September 2026 0 acquire / 0 dispose EOD 2026-09-08
- 4 September 2026 0 acquire / 1 dispose EOD 2026-09-04
- 3 September 2026 0 acquire / 2 dispose EOD 2026-09-03
- 2 September 2026 0 acquire / 2 dispose EOD 2026-09-02
- 1 September 2026 0 acquire / 2 dispose EOD 2026-09-01
- 28 August 2026 0 acquire / 3 dispose EOD 2026-08-28
- 27 August 2026 0 acquire / 3 dispose EOD 2026-08-27
- 26 August 2026 0 acquire / 0 dispose EOD 2026-08-26
- 25 August 2026 0 acquire / 2 dispose EOD 2026-08-25
- 24 August 2026 0 acquire / 2 dispose EOD 2026-08-24
- 21 August 2026 0 acquire / 1 dispose EOD 2026-08-21
- 20 August 2026 0 acquire / 1 dispose EOD 2026-08-20
- 19 August 2026 0 acquire / 2 dispose 0 ACQUIRE, 0 ANTICIPATE, 2 DISPOSE | Second consecutive rout day and this one broke BOTH stops; the board printed ZERO bullish-actionable rows in 20 names - no STRONG BUY, no BUY, no BUY-ADD, no BUY-ANTICIPATE - the first all-zero buy pool since inception (AAOI -7.0%, LRCX -6.3%, COHR -6.2%, LITE -5.2%, GLW -4.7%, AVGO -4.6%, INTC -4.0%, KLAC -3.9%, AMD -3.7%, SNDK -3.5%) | DISPOSE 1 ASML SELL 30% (4 of) @1751.73 =, retaining 9 - ORIGINATION IS THE STOP BREAK, NOT ADR-0012, and that is the reverse of last night: PROFIT_ARMED prints (T12_Progress 93.74) but not one tick fires (conviction = -7 vs the 20-pt bar; 12wk 1868.65 alive at +6.68% vs the 1.02x band 1786.76; no second code; no repeated NO TRADE), and armed-without-a-tick is a trail-raise not a trim. What originates it is CLAUDE.md 9's own decisive-stop-break clause: 1751.73 is -1.38% THROUGH the 1776.26 trail on a settled close, second down session, now below both EMA10 1786.33 and EMA20 1765.56 after sitting above both on 08-18, conviction ->54. Last night named the geometry exactly ('1.50% above the stop; a single further rout day and the stop decides the size for us') and that day came. NOT a full exit because structure holds above EMA50 1733.79/EMA100/EMA200, Trend still Bullish, Consolidation_Bullish, 12wk +6.68%, and the fundamental tape is supportive (Q2 EUR 9.33B, 2026 guide lifted to 43-45B from 36-40B, +17% interim dividend) with the AMSTERDAM LINE CLOSING +0.79% on 08-19 while the US ADR fell -2.8% - much of tonight's move is FX/ADR-premium unwind, not a business break. MoS -4.92 would bump but G3 blocks it for a 2nd session (G3 NOT G2 - the DCF anchor is the cleanest on the board at 2.09x). Realized - | DISPOSE 2 TSM SELL 50% (8 of) @412.09 =, retaining 9 - armed + tick (c) for a 4th session and now through the price: Target_12Week has walked 433.32 -> 406.45 -> 397.99, i.e. -3.42% BELOW the close vs a dead band of 420.33. Tick (b) missed by ONE POINT = -19 vs >=20) - stated, not counted. The escalation to profit_take_2 rests on the Tier-2 EMA10_BREAK leg: two consecutive closes -1.73%/-1.79% below EMA10 419.34, derived BY HAND because the engine emits only one Exit_Warning code and PROFIT_ARMED wins (systemic finding 2). L2 NOW FULLY MET (close below trail AND negative 12wk) after being fourteen cents away last night. The 08-18 pre-commitment said a break takes the remaining 17 - honoured in direction, NOT in full size, because -0.29% is not the DECISIVE break L2/Contrast contemplate and price holds above EMA100 403.69/EMA200 371.73 inside the Est band 403.85-433.26; inventing a 100% trigger on a 29-bp break would be as wrong as ignoring it. HARD LINE PRE-STATED: a close below 403.85 takes the balance in full. G2 suppresses the MoS -14.46 amplify a 4th session (DCF 45.97 vs 412.09 = 8.96x; same class on TSLA 10.25x, INTC 6.87x, ARM 5.43x). Realized - | NVDA HOLD 253 and the MANDATORY ARMED TRAIL-RAISE IS FINALLY LEGAL - newly armed (T12_Progress 90.39 up through 90 from 89.00) with ZERO ticks (conv = -10; 12wk 240.68 alive at +10.6%; no second code; the 08-19 BUY-ADD broke any NO-TRADE run), so stop RAISED 206.05 -> 206.32 (2.0x-ATR chandelier). 27 cents - taken because a mandatory raise gets taken whenever legal, not only when large. CATALYST WINDOW NOW OPEN: FQ2 FY27 08-26 is five sessions out, band +/-6.75%, the largest single-event exposure in the window on this book's largest holding -> hold and trail through the print, never pre-trim. 5.44% above the new stop, above EMA20/50/100/200, only EMA10 219.35 overhead by 0.82%; marks -/-4.07%; risk to stop = 0.29% of book | ACQUIRE NO ACTION - 7th consecutive session, and tonight it needs no arithmetic at all: the buy pool is EMPTY before valuation, before the scorecard, before the gate. Near-misses, none within 11 pts of the floor even pre-haircut: MU WATCH cv54 -> adj 47 (gate PASSES, blocker is purely conviction), LITE WATCH cv54 -> adj 44 (gate F, MoS -37.68), SNDK WATCH cv49 -> adj 45 (gate F, MSCI World's largest August add on 08-31), LRCX WATCH cv49 -> adj 39. Last night's re-arm (NVDA raw cv >= 75) is unmet and further away - it printed HOLD cv61 | ANTICIPATE none - ZERO BUY-ANTICIPATE prints for a 2nd session; MU/LITE/SNDK all 0-of-3 | MRVL IS THE ONE GENUINE RELATIVE-STRENGTH NAME AND THE ENGINE WILL NOT LOOK AT IT: +9.83% (216.00 -> 237.27) on 43.6M shares = 1.71x prior, above EVERY EMA with Trend=Bullish, and it prints AVOID/NoSignal/cv0 'do not open (long-only)'. Gate F + MoS -7.29 means it was unbuyable regardless so nothing was lost, but the cascade SUPPRESSED the row rather than surfacing a WATCH - new systemic finding 5. Q2 FY27 08-27 | FALSE-ARM DEFECT firing on 100% of held names a 2nd session, 34th overall, and ALL THREE ARE UNDERWATER: ASML armed at 93.74 while -4.12% below cost (Gain_ATR -1.15), NVDA at 90.39 while -4.07% (-1.64), TSM at 103.54 while -5.92% (-2.14). Not one has a profit to take; tonight's two 'profit-takes' realize -and -. The mechanism inverts exactly where it matters: T12_Progress rises because the TARGET is collapsing toward the price, not because price advances toward the target. Advisory (a) unshipped | SCORECARD: graded 26/113, calib_1w -0.548 - a 12th consecutive negative AND a material degradation from -0.207 last night, so f=0.30 stays mandatory (L5) and the metric is trending away from usability. Actionable cells FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy -2 at n=5 (softened from -5; USC-3 still says read it at the -10 floor on this book's 3/3 stop-first record) and NoTrade|sell -6 at n=10. Counterfactuals n=20 with optional_trim at n=13, median withheld -5.14% 1wk / -15.33% 4wk, verdict 'cost' - WORSE at 1wk than last night's -3.89%, and the direct empirical warrant for taking TSM at the 50% tier rather than defaulting to the 30% base (USC-6/L3) | Valuation fresh (FetchedAt 08-17 22:26) but 20/20 GROWTH_PRICED_IN for a 6th run - zero cross-sectional discrimination; 10/20 pass quality, and it fails every unheld name that printed a bullish setup this week | Overlay STALE 45 days (WEEK 2026-07-05); the AAOI/COHR/LITE 'optics dip-buy' line noted and NOT acted on - an overlay override cannot open a hard quality gate, and all three fell again | Horizon from parent us (no ussemicon_horizon.json): opex + flash PMI 08-21, NVDA FQ2 08-26 with MU/KLAC read-through, Jackson Hole 08-27-29, MSCI review 08-31 | Queue hygiene: nothing open, both cards are market not GTC; provenance clean - both action prices are the anchor's own Entry_Price | Book, 8.67%; the two trims free against of buys - trivially; -> (92.4%) and falls to 7.6%, the lowest since inception, the correct posture into a two-day rout with an empty buy pool and a +/-6.75% single-name event five sessions out
- 18 August 2026 0 acquire / 2 dispose 0 ACQUIRE, 0 ANTICIPATE, 2 DISPOSE | Rates-driven sector rout on 08-18 (SOX ~-3.7%, 30y Treasury yield highest since 2007): every board name fell (COHR -12.8%, LITE -9.9%, SNDK -9.0%, ASX -8.8%, MU -7.0%, ASML -4.26%, TSM -4.08%, NVDA -2.34%) and BUY-ANTICIPATE prints went from 3 to ZERO | DISPOSE 1 ASML SELL 30% (5 of) @1802.98 =, retaining 13 - ADR-0012 armed (T12_Progress 91.22) + tick (b) FIRED, conviction, exactly the 20-pt threshold; no other tick (12wk 1976.51 = +9.62% alive, no 2nd code, no repeat NO TRADE) so profit_take_1 = 30%. The amplify to 50% is blocked by G3 NOT G2: MoS -4.92 <= -3 would bump the tier, but the 12wk is solidly positive on a bullish signal above EMA50/100/200 - and unlike TSM the DCF anchor here IS reliable (836.55 vs 1802.98 = 2.16x, cleanest on the board with NVDA 1.34x), so calling it a G2 block would contradict the 08-17 entry. Base trim justified on geometry: 1802.98 is only 1.50% above the 1776.26 stop. Stop STANDS (chandelier 1666.43 and model 1666.43 both below it, 3rd session the mandatory armed raise is unavailable). Realized - | DISPOSE 2 TSM SELL 30% (7 of) @413.41 =, retaining 17 - armed + tick (c) 3rd consecutive session and materially worse: Target_12Week moved from +0.55% ABOVE the close on 08-17 (433.32) to -1.68% BELOW it tonight (406.45 vs 413.41), through the price not merely inside the 421.68 dead band. FRESH origination not a re-issue (the 08-17 card filled this morning). G2 suppresses the MoS -14.46 amplify for a 3rd session (DCF 45.97 vs 413.41 = 8.99x; same class defect on TSLA 9.83x, INTC 7.15x, ARM 5.51x). L2 is fourteen cents away - 413.41 is +0.034% above the 413.27 trail, negative-12wk half met, decisive-close-below half not; if it breaks tomorrow the stop takes the remaining 17. Realized - | FALSE-ARM DEFECT now firing on 100% of held names, 33rd session: ASML armed at T12_Progress 91.22 while -1.31% BELOW cost (Gain_ATR -0.35), TSM at 101.71 while -5.62% below (Gain_ATR -2.01). Both 'profit-takes' realize losses. Advisory (a) unshipped | ACQUIRE NO ACTION - 6th consecutive session, and the blocker CHANGED CHARACTER. The prior five were unheld names failing the quality gate. Tonight the sole bullish-actionable row was NVDA BUY-ADD cv71 Buy_Rank 1 PullbackBuy_VWAP - a HELD name (gate inapplicable), on the exact family L1 favours, with the cleanest DCF anchor on the board - and it still died on arithmetic: val_adj -10 (MoS -2.56) -> adj 61, four points under the 65 floor. Note B/G2 does not rescue it (T12 246.90 vs DCF 163.98 = 1.51x is not a wide margin). Would have been QUEUED not bought anyway (Entry_Distance_ATR -1.43, limit 211.85 = -3.6%). RE-ARM: raw cv >= 75 clears the floor | ANTICIPATE none - ZERO BUY-ANTICIPATE prints anywhere on the board (3 last night); MU/LITE/SNDK all 1-of-3 and all faded to WATCH | THE 08-17 ENTRY'S HEADLINE CALL RESOLVED IN OUR FAVOUR: it named MU 'the cleanest acquire since inception if it re-prints'. MU did NOT re-print and fell -7.0% (1011.75 -> 940.76). ASX, declined on quality-gate grounds at 39.91, fell -8.8%. LITE, the highest-conviction name on the board at cv83, fell -9.9%. Three declines, three avoided drawdowns averaging -8.6% in ONE session - USC-3/USC-4/L6 all paid | NVDA HOLD 253 - not armed (T12_Progress 89.00 < 90, Gain_ATR -1.28) so ADR-0012 does not apply; the two-consecutive-NO-TRADE state flagged on 08-17 resolved UPWARD, vindicating the USC-5/US-3 'still-constructive fade -> trail' call; 6.64% above stop, above EMA200, 12wk +12.4% alive; marks -/-3.11%; FQ2 FY27 08-26 is SIX sessions out so the <=5-session catalyst window opens at the NEXT EOD | QUEUE HYGIENE: five stale GTC ledger lines closed - the Step-7 expiry reconcile had never been applied to older lines, so the counterfactual grader was under-counting non-fills for up to a month | SCORECARD: graded 26/107, calib_1w -0.207 (11th consecutive negative -> f=0.30 mandatory, L5); actionable cells FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy -5 at n=5 and NoTrade|sell -6 at n=10; but the loudest line is the counterfactual - optional_trim n=13, median withheld -3.89% 1wk / -15.33% 4wk, verdict 'cost', up from n=4/-0.9% at the 07-18 review. This book's characteristic error is UNDER-trimming, which is the direct warrant for firing both trims as real DISPOSE cards rather than prose (USC-6/L3) | Valuation fresh (FetchedAt 08-17 22:26) but 20/20 GROWTH_PRICED_IN for a 5th run - zero cross-sectional discrimination, val_adj can only subtract | Book, 10.0%; the two trims free against of buys -; -> (91.2%)
- 17 August 2026 0 acquire / 1 dispose 0 ACQUIRE, 0 ANTICIPATE, 1 DISPOSE | RE-ISSUE the TSM 50% trim - 23 of @ 430.97 =, retaining a 24-share core, stop 413.27. The 08-14 card decided this trade and it NEVER EXECUTED: the auto-executor ran this morning (0 filled / 0 unfilled / 9 skipped) and the card was not among the nine - it was written execution='market_next_open', outside _EXEC_KINDS, and was silently dropped. Across this book's TSM history 13 sell cards were written and exactly 2 filled - the 2 written execution='market'. Re-derived fresh tonight TSM fires only tick (c) (12wk 433.32 vs the 439.59 dead band, 2nd consecutive session; tick (b) did NOT re-fire, cv which is profit_take_1 = 30%/ - but this is a RECONCILE of a standing decision, not a fresh origination, so it stays at 50%/ per L3/USC-6; repriced 426.35 -> 430.97 = +1.08%, inside L8's 1.5% band. G2 again suppresses the MoS -14.46 amplify (DCF 45.97 vs 429.66 = 9.3x scale mismatch - and tonight the same break shows on TSLA 9.9x, INTC 7.7x, ARM 6.0x, so it is a class of names, not one ADR slip) | ACQUIRE NO ACTION - ASX was the sole bullish-actionable row (BUY cv69, Buy_Rank 1) and failed four ways: hard quality gate (Quality_Pass False), MoS -10.48 -> val_adj -10, FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy bias -5 now ACTIONABLE at n=5 -> adj 54 (USC-3's -10 floor reading takes it to 49), and this book's own ASX FailedBreakdown buy on 07-10 realized -8.65% | ANTICIPATE none eligible - three names printed AnticipationUp_VCP [STRONG BUY] above the 55 floor and NOT ONE satisfies >=2-of-last-3. LITE (cv83, highest on the board) printed ANTICIPATE on 08-13 AND 08-18 with WATCH/BUY between = 2-of-4, never 2-of-3, and is quality-gate blocked anyway (MoS -37.68, worst on board) despite a genuine inflection (Q4 rev +109.3% YoY, +108% YTD, PT). SNDK (cv76) is 1-of-3, gate-blocked, and ALREADY EXTENDED at Entry_Distance_ATR -0.48 - the buy-stop sits half an ATR BELOW price so it would fill at market, destroying the fills-only-on-strength property. MU (cv81) is 1-of-3 and is THE NAME TO WATCH: the ONLY Quality_Pass True candidate on the board, MoS -1.35 -> val_adj -7 -> adj 74, entry 1017.79 = +0.10 ATR clean, with the memory tape confirming (Samsung supply warning, Musk memory-bottleneck, BofA Buy 'structurally stronger'). If MU re-prints BUY - ANTICIPATE at the 08-18 EOD it is 2-of-3 and becomes this book's cleanest acquire since inception | NVDA 2nd consecutive NO TRADE cv0 and still a HOLD - NOT armed (T12_Progress 87.93 < 90, Gain_ATR -0.34) so ADR-0012 tick (d) does not apply; a still-constructive fade not a broken technical (9.2% above stop, above EMA200/EMA50/VWAP, 12wk 255.91 = +13.7%), the USC-5/US-3 distinction; and NoTrade|sell is the book's worst cell at n=10, bias -6 ACTIONABLE, pricing a NoTrade-basis sell as a mistake. FQ2 FY27 08-26 = 7 sessions out, catalyst window opens at the 08-19 EOD | ASML armed-but-NOT-fired (cv ROSE, 12wk 2088.75 alive at +10.9%) - the mandatory trail-raise is UNAVAILABLE for a 2nd session because the 2.0xATR chandelier (1766.16) and model stop (1762.58) both sit below the standing 1776.26, which STANDS; marks + / +3.07% | Valuation layer still blind cross-sectionally: GROWTH_PRICED_IN, val_adj can only subtract, and the quality gate fails 3 of the 4 bullish candidates - 5 consecutive sessions of ACQUIRE NO ACTION at 88.7% cash | Book, 11.3%; the trim frees against of buys, ->
- 14 August 2026 0 acquire / 1 dispose 0 ACQUIRE, 0 ANTICIPATE, 1 DISPOSE | TRIM TSM 50% - 23 of @ 426.35 =, retaining a 24-share core, stop 413.27. ADR-0012 armed (PROFIT_ARMED) with TWO ticks fired: (b) conviction, a -34 collapse, and (c) Target_12Week 424.40 now sits BELOW the 426.35 close. That ends a 29-session withhold whose stated basis was 'only tick (c) fires'. The valuation bump is SUPPRESSED by G2 - TSM's DCF_per_share prints 45.38 against a 426.35 price, a 9.4x scale mismatch no other name shows, so MoS -14.26 is a unit artifact read directionally only; combined with 'never 100% from profit-take alone', no stop break (426.35 is 3.1% above the trail) and the optional_trim counterfactual (n=10, 'cost', one tier not two), the trim stays at one tier | ACQUIRE NO ACTION - three BUYs printed (Buy_Ranks 1-2-3) and all three failed. LITE (cv76, Rank 1) blocked four ways: hard quality gate, MoS -25.39 -> val_adj -10, FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy bias -5 now ACTIONABLE (crossed n=5 tonight, exactly as USC-3 predicted), adj 61 under the floor, plus L6 - it printed Q4 on 08-11 (rev +109% YoY, Q1 guide +130%) and FELL 5.58%. AAOI (cv74, Rank 2) was the only name to CLEAR the floor and was declined on three named grounds: Target_12Week 148.34 sits BELOW the 152.91 buy-stop (-2.99%, dead at entry); the stop is 3.76 ATR / -42.5% away, which at 35.06 is of risk = 2.98% of the book on one name, a 5.6x outlier vs NVDA's 0.53%; and USC-3's clause that a gate override is never a licence to chase - its gate is only OFF because the model produced no FV at all (Val_Signal NA, EPV -3.38, Quality_Pass False). Re-arm on a PullbackBuy_VWAP, or a BreakoutUp with a stop inside ~2 ATR AND a 12wk above entry. MU (cv69, Rank 3) is the cleanest on quality (Quality_Pass True, MoS -0.99) and still lands at adj 59, six under the floor | ANTICIPATE none eligible - NVDA satisfied 2-of-3 but is now HELD and prints cv0; the slot already did its job | NVDA's 08-13 QUEUED-ANTICIPATE FILLED on strength at 226.80 (, USC-4 now 3-for-3); marks -0.72% and the news CONFIRMS - a > AI-infrastructure financing vehicle with Apollo/BlackRock/Blackstone/Brookfield/Goldman/KKR, street PT 271.49. NO TRADE cv0 is 1 print, not the 2 required; no flip-flop one session after entry. FQ2 prints 08-26, 7 sessions out | ASML armed-but-NOT-fired (tick b -15 < 20, 12wk 1993.33 alive) - trail, don't trim; the mandatory raise is UNAVAILABLE because the 2.0xATR chandelier (1724.00) sits below the standing 1776.26, which therefore STANDS | Valuation layer has zero cross-sectional signal: names GROWTH_PRICED_IN, val_adj can only subtract | Book, 11.2%; the trim frees against of buys, ->
- 13 August 2026 1 acquire / 0 dispose 0 ACQUIRE, 1 ANTICIPATE (queued), 0 DISPOSE | NVDA QUEUED-ANTICIPATE GTC buy-stop @ 225.76 = (5.81% of a book), stop 206.05 (risk = 0.51%), expires 2026-08-18 - the 08-12 written pre-commitment fires exactly as drafted: ANTICIPATE printed 2 of the last 3 snapshots (cv93 -> cv96), the highest conviction this board has produced since inception, Quality PASS, the mildest MoS_FV on the board (-2.42), and the only quality-passing name besides AVGO with a materially positive 12wk. Priced off tonight's own Entry_Price, never the retired 224.39/225.49 references | ACQUIRE NO ACTION: ASX (the only plain BUY, BuyRank 1) is blocked three ways - Quality_Pass False hard gate, adj 64 one point below the floor, and USC-3 (this book is 3/3 stop-first on FailedBreakdown_Up_20D, and that cell crossed n=5 tonight to go ACTIONABLE at -5, exactly as USC-3 predicted) | ASML's reserved add-after-print tranche DECLINED one session: AMAT beat and raised AMC on 08-13 but fell ~2.5% AH, the anchor close predates that reaction, and the row is 1-of-3 on ANTICIPATE | DISPOSE NO ACTION: TSM's PROFIT_ARMED is a FALSE ARM for a 29th session (T12 leg 100.82% while 1.72% underwater, Gain_ATR -0.66) - only tick (c) fires and the profit-take is withheld; ADR-0020 cannot fire on a trail that has only ratcheted (erosion 0%) | The 08-12 blocks were VALIDATED IN ONE SESSION: COHR -7.99% (quality gate + pre-print run-up) and LITE -5.58% (L6 post-earnings gap). The ASML buy-stop FILLED on strength at 1826.98 and marks +1.15% - USC-4 now 2-for-2 | Trails: TSM 405.26 -> 413.27 (6th ratchet, chandelier 1.5 ATR, correcting the 08-12 use of the looser model stop); ASML 1776.26 STANDS
- 12 August 2026 1 acquire / 0 dispose 1 ACQUIRE (queued), 0 ANTICIPATE, 0 DISPOSE | ASML QUEUED GTC buy-stop @ 1826.98 (= Entry_Price 1810.07 + 0.25 ATR, top of the provenance band), expires 2026-08-17 - a USC-3 half-starter placed as a USC-4 buy-stop rather than a market fill because Applied Materials reports FQ3 AMC on 08-13 (ecosystem +/-5%, horizon stance add-after-print) and the 1776.26 stop is only -1.87% below the close, so a down-gap would blow through it; a buy-stop cannot fill on a down-gap at all. The other half of the starter is explicitly reserved as the add-after-print tranche | DISPOSE NO ACTION: AMD (the only live sell case) FILLED at the 08-12 open at 488.80, realized - / -5.29%, which is BETTER than the card's -projection at its 474.32 reference because the open gapped +3.05% through the line - the card had pre-committed in writing that a gap UP does not cancel the exit, and honouring that was correct. The 08-11 executor fix (execution='market' replacing the silently-discarded 'market_next_open') is now VALIDATED IN PRODUCTION | TSM HOLD, TRAIL RAISED 396.58 -> 405.26 (5th consecutive ratchet), conviction and the signal family flipped bearish (FailedBreakout_Down_20D/AVOID) to bullish (AnticipationUp_VCP/HOLD); the armed ADR-0012 tick (c) trim is WITHHELD and ledgered as optional | ANTICIPATE slot empty for a 2nd session: NVDA printed BUY - ANTICIPATE at cv93 - the highest conviction this board has recorded, Quality PASS, mildest MoS_FV (-2.42), 12wk +10.1% - but only 1 of the last 3 snapshots vs a >=2 requirement | Board melt-up: up, median +2.58%, four bullish actionable rows after two sessions of zero, and THREE of the four blocked by different pre-existing rules (COHR quality gate + same-day AMC earnings, LITE post-earnings gap + quality + slot, NVDA slot count)
- 11 August 2026 0 acquire / 1 dispose 0 ACQUIRE, 0 ANTICIPATE, 1 DISPOSE | AMD SELL (100%) @ ~474.32 at the 08-12 open - a RE-ISSUE of the identical 08-10 card, which never executed because it was written execution='market_next_open', a value paper_executor.py silently discards (_EXEC_KINDS={market,gtc_limit,gtc_stop}); today's card uses 'market'. The exit case is unchanged and stronger: close 474.32 still below the 475.00 committed line for a 2nd session, 12wk 457.65 now 3.51% BELOW the close (was -1.95%), 3rd consecutive NO TRADE cv0; realized - (-8.09%) | ACQUIRE NO ACTION: for the SECOND consecutive session the board printed ZERO bullish actionable rows - and this time on a broad RALLY ( up, median +0.96%, KLAC +4.01%, ASML +3.80%), not a rout, which is the more informative version of the same answer | ANTICIPATE slot empty: no name printed BUY - ANTICIPATE in >=2 of the last 3 snapshots (NVDA and LITE each) | TSM HOLD, TRAIL RAISED 389.84 -> 396.58 (4th consecutive ratchet), conviction and 12wk 395.86->403.91 both improved | AVGO cv54 remains the sole near-miss (only 12wk meaningfully above close, +9.4%, Quality PASS), 11 points short of the floor
- 10 August 2026 0 acquire / 1 dispose 0 ACQUIRE, 0 ANTICIPATE, 1 DISPOSE | AMD SELL (100%) @ ~469.56 at the 08-11 open - the committed 475.00 escalation FIRED on the settled close (469.56, -1.15% through the line, 0.05% off the session low) with the 12wk 460.38 BELOW the close, so L2 is satisfied on both legs for the first time; realized - (-9.01%) | ACQUIRE is a trivial NO ACTION: for the first time since standalone inception the board printed ZERO bullish actionable rows (no STRONG BUY / BUY / BUY - ADD / BUY - ANTICIPATE) with names down, median -2.71% | NVDA anticipate queue WITHDRAWN unfilled - buy-stop @224.39 missed by (high 224.137), then cv (<65) AND label reverted to WATCH; NOT repriced down, zero capital committed, non-fill saved 3.05% | TSM HOLD, TRAIL RAISED 389.22 -> 389.84, catalyst DELIVERED (July rev +44.7% YoY) and hold released
- 7 August 2026 1 acquire / 0 dispose 0 ACQUIRE, 1 ANTICIPATE, 0 DISPOSE | NVDA QUEUED-ANTICIPATE buy-stop @224.39, (0.5x anticipate slot x 0.75 valuation modifier = 5.8% of book), expires 2026-08-12 - fills only on strength, zero capital at risk otherwise | ACQUIRE is a genuine NO ACTION: both STRONG BUYs (AAOI cv90, COHR cv76) are HARD-BLOCKED by the quality gate (Quality_Pass False; AAOI FCF - / ROE -3.9% / F_Score 4, COHR FCF -) and both are same-day sympathy moves off AAOI's 08-06 Q2 print (L6) | AMD HOLD 172, escalation NOT fired (483.36 > 475.00, +1.76%, narrowed from +3.01%), stop 475.00 re-armed | TSM HOLD, TRAIL RAISED 385.57 -> 389.22, catalyst-aware hold into the ~08-10 TSMC July revenue print
- 6 August 2026 1 acquire / 0 dispose 1 ACQUIRE, 0 DISPOSE | NVDA BUY day-limit <=220.00 (entry 218.99) pending the 08-07 open - the book's FIRST since inception, at 0.75x model size and 0.096% of book risk, R:R 4.0:1 | AMD HOLD 172, escalation tested and NOT fired (489.28 > 475.00, +3.01%), stop 475.00 re-armed unchanged | TSM HOLD, TRAIL RAISED 382.61 -> 385.57, catalyst-aware hold into the ~08-10 TSMC July revenue print
- 5 August 2026 0 acquire / 0 dispose NO ACTION - 0 ACQUIRE, 0 DISPOSE | AMD escalation TESTED and NOT fired (settled close 482.05 > 475.00, +1.48%) - HOLD 172, stop 475.00 re-armed unchanged | TSM 78% reduce FILLED 164 @ 419.32 - HOLD the 47-sh core into the ~08-10 TSMC July revenue print, stop 382.61 | NVDA BUY - ANTICIPATE cv83 DECLINED - anticipate slot needs prints, this is 1, and it is already 0.47xATR past its own entry on a news-driven +3.4% day
- 4 August 2026 0 acquire / 1 dispose 1 DISPOSE - 0 ACQUIRE | TSM SELL 78% (164 of) @ ~417.17, 47-sh core retained behind 382.61 | AMD HOLD 172, prior trim WITHDRAWN (both ADR-0012 ticks invalidated), stop 475.00 held, decisive close < 475.00 re-fires the full exit | ACQUIRE empty - zero bullish rows on the board
- 3 August 2026 0 acquire / 2 dispose EOD 2026-08-03
- 31 July 2026 0 acquire / 2 dispose EOD 2026-07-10