Recommendations
0 to acquire · 2 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) | 406.11 | SELL ALL | 406.11 | 375.56 | n/a | n/a | 353.23 (-13.0%) | Selling the whole Taiwan Semiconductor position. This is a call on the share price trend, not on the company - the business just posted record quarterly results, guided the current quarter up another 12%, and reclaimed a trillion market value. But the stock has given our model no tradeable signal in seven of the last eight sessions, its twelve-week outlook has been negative for ten sessions running, and it still trades below its 20-day, 50-day and volume-weighted average prices. We bought it as a trend and the trend is gone; we would rather hold the cash and buy it back when the chart agrees with the business again. Realising roughly a 7.3% loss. FULL BASIS: CLAUDE.md sec9 sustained-NoTrade clause - NoTrade cv0 with 'Consensus conflict + low conviction' in 7 of the last 8 sessions (07-23/24/27/28/30/31/08-03), Target_12Week 353.23 = -13.02% vs the 406.11 close and negative for TEN consecutive sessions, close under EMA20 411.11 / EMA50 414.52 / VWAP 410.84. The 375.56 stop is RECLAIMED by +8.13% so L2 is NOT claimed. Sixth re-issue of the exit first decided 07-27. HELD OVER AN EXPLICIT STRIKE: NoTrade|sell became ACTIONABLE this run at bias -3 (n=6, hit_1w 0.333) - three of five gradeable TSM exits graded good_sell:false (07-17 missed_up 3.63%, 07-27 1.29%, 07-28 3.52%) - and three structural counts improved (three consecutive higher closes 403.31->404.25->406.11, above EMA5 401.48 and EMA10 403.80, EMA100 398.91 reclaimed). Overridden because -3 is a haircut not a veto, 2-of-6 at n=6 is thin against 7-of-8 cv0 with a 12wk negative for ten, the intermediate structure is still broken, and the written re-entry trigger is only HALF met (EMA100 reclaimed but NO bullish-family print at all). IF THIS GRADES POORLY ONCE MORE THE SEC9 SUSTAINED-NOTRADE BASIS ITSELF GOES TO THE LEARNINGS REVIEW (systemic finding #1). G2 suppresses the valuation-amplify (DCF vs a price is a broken artifact) -> val_adj 0, no tier bump, sec9 amplify-only respected. Gives up a known upside catalyst: TSMC July monthly revenue lands ~08-10, five sessions out - stated, not buried. USC-5 is the lesson about NOT holding a broken technical for a catalyst. RE-ENTRY TRIGGER: a bullish-family print (PullbackBuy_VWAP preferred per L1) with conviction >=65 AND a non-negative Target_12Week. L8: executes at the 2026-08-04 open, not tonight; reprice if the open gaps >~1.5%. · news |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | 484.64 | SELL 30% | 484.64 | 475.00 | n/a | n/a | 489.72 (+1.0%) | Cutting our AMD holding by 30% and keeping the rest. AMD reports quarterly results tonight and the options market is pricing an 8.5% move in either direction - a genuine coin flip on a position that is already about 6% underwater and has stopped generating any signal from our model for three sessions running. We are not calling the result; we are sizing for the fact that we cannot. Taking roughly a third off means a bad number costs us meaningfully less while a good one still pays on the two-thirds we keep, behind a stop at The longer-term picture is intact - the shares remain far above their 100- and 200-day averages - which is why this is a trim and not an exit. FULL BASIS: ADR-0012 deterioration ticks (d) 3rd consecutive NO TRADE cv0 and (c) dead forward view, Target_12Week 489.72 < 1.02 x 484.64 = 494.33 (+1.05% twelve-week view on a -6.09% position). Structure broken: under EMA10 489.79 / EMA20 502.12 / EMA50 486.21, VWAP -4.79%; intact long-term above EMA100 426.66 / EMA200 347.18 - hence trim, not exit. G1 does NOT protect (no fresh BreakoutUp/MomentumContinuation at cv>=80 - it is cv0); G3 SATISFIED (forward view flat +1.05%, signal not bullish). The catalyst-aware carve-out - a CONFIRMED LOWER HIGH, met 07-31 and not undone (08-03 high 490.95 < 07-31 high 515.62) - remains the licence to trim inside the <=5-session earnings window. ONE TIER ONLY, unchanged from 07-31: the 08-03 tape IMPROVED (open 461.79, low 455.30, close 484.64 near the high, +1.78%), so there is no case to escalate, and G2 suppresses the MoS_FV -15.00 valuation-amplify that would otherwise bump the tier (DCF vs a price is a broken artifact) -> val_adj 0. PROFIT_ARMED IS A FALSE ARM for a 4th straight session (Gain_ATR -0.74 on a -6.09% position; the arm fires off the T12-progress leg at 98.96% on a target BELOW cost) - the profit-take path is NOT the basis of this card; this is a sec9 loss-control de-risk. Backlog item (a) unfixed. STOP 475.00 HELD AND DELIBERATELY NOT RATCHETED: close is only +2.03% above it and an 8.5% implied gap goes straight through a 2% stop, so tightening buys nothing and invites a whipsaw at the open. COMMITTED ESCALATION STANDS UNCHANGED for the retained : a decisive close below 475.00 re-fires the full exit, no re-litigation. Dispersion arithmetic: 8.5% implied = +/-on, +/-on 120 - the trim removes of binary risk. Scorecard bias -3 (NoTrade|sell actionable, n=6) noted and argues against the sell; overridden by the two live ADR-0012 ticks plus tonight's binary. USC-5: de-risk to the technical's own tier and let a DEFINED core ride the catalyst. L8: executes at the 2026-08-04 open - PRE-PRINT, since earnings are after that session's close; reprice if the open gaps >~1.5%. · news |
| QCOM | Qualcomm Incorporated | 151.57 | WATCH | 151.57 | 133.29 | 157.01 (+3.6%) | 169.69 (+12.0%) | 86.39 (-43.0%) | Passing on Qualcomm again, and this time it was close. Our model upgraded it to an outright buy today - the first buy signal anywhere on this board in eight weeks - and the entry is not stretched. We are still not taking it. Our quality screen on the company's own financials is failing, which blocks new positions outright; the model's own twelve-week price projection sits far below today's price, contradicting the buy signal beside it; and the reason the shares are down 44% from their high is not a passing dip - management has said Apple is winding down its modem business faster than expected, next quarter's profit guidance came in about 10% below what analysts wanted, and cost inflation across chip manufacturing is squeezing margins industry-wide. Wells Fargo cut its price target from to A four-day-old guidance cut is not a base. We want to see the quality screen pass and a proper pullback entry before we pay for this bounce. REJECT BASIS (four independent counts; note the FLOOR IS CLEARED - conviction 70, val_adj -4 on MoS_FV -0.80, bias 0 because OversoldBounce_Up|buy has NO cell in this book, adj 66 vs a 65 floor, Entry_Distance_ATR -0.0 so the no-chase rule is NOT what kills it, RSI 32.8 nowhere near overbought, Buy_Rank 1): (1) HARD QUALITY GATE - Quality_Pass False (flipped True->False on the 08-01 regeneration, unchanged since); the gate is an outright block on NEW entries and QCOM is. USC-3 is explicit that a gate override is never a licence to chase. (2) Target_12Week 86.39 = -43.0% on a BUY-labelled row - taking the row's bullish half while ignoring its own forward half is not a selective read this book gets to make (systemic finding #2). (3) NEWS OVERRIDES AND IT IS STRUCTURAL: -44% from the high, Apple modem revenue declining FASTER than previously forecast, Q4 guided -2.25 vs consensus on revenue -10.5B vs expected, pressure attributed to industry-wide input inflation across wafers, packaging and memory - not a demand air-pocket that mean-reverts; Wells Fargo PT -> Equal Weight with the sell side broadly following. (4) THE TAPE UNDER THE LABEL IS BEARISH: Pillar_Consensus Consolidation_Bearish, Trend and Momentum both Neutral_Bearish_Context, Volatility Bearish, close below ALL SIX EMAs (5/10/20/50/100/200), VWAP distance -10.66%; the 08-03 +2.68% print is the first up-close in six sessions - a bounce inside a downtrend, which is what OversoldBounce_Up is built to catch and what L6 in the down direction says not to pay for on day one. RE-ARM TRIGGER: a PullbackBuy_VWAP reprint (L1) OR a BUY at conviction >=65 WITH Quality_Pass restored to True, and given count (2) a Target_12Week that is not deeply negative. Two of four counts are single-refresh flips, so this name stays ON the board rather than off it. Logged direction:none so the counterfactual grader prices the pass. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
15 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.548 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
53 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.