US Semiconductors — Graded decisions
Every past recommendation whose target window has elapsed, scored against what actually happened. This is how we keep ourselves honest.
How to read this
- Graded — the recommendation’s horizon has passed, so we can score it.
- Hit target — price reached the model’s target. Stopped out — it hit the protective stop first. Closed — neither; it ran to the horizon. Not filled — a queued order that never triggered.
- 1wk / 4wk — the actual price return over that window after the decision.
| Date | Ticker | Decision | Signal | Outcome | 1wk | 4wk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-11 | NVDA | SELL 100% | ReversalUp_Oversold | Closed | — | — |
| 2026-11-11 | ASML | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | — | — |
| 2026-11-11 | TSM | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | — | — |
| 2026-11-10 | NVDA | SELL 100% | BreakdownDown_20D | Closed | — | — |
| 2026-11-10 | ASML | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | — | — |
| 2026-11-10 | TSM | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | — | — |
| 2026-11-09 | NVDA | SELL 100% | BreakdownDown_20D | Closed | — | — |
| 2026-11-09 | ASML | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | — | — |
| 2026-11-09 | TSM | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | — | — |
| 2026-11-06 | NVDA | SELL 100% | RallySell_BearTrend | Closed | -11.0% | — |
| 2026-11-06 | ASML | SELL 100% | RallySell_BearTrend | Closed | +5.1% | — |
| 2026-11-06 | TSM | SELL 100% | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | +8.0% | — |
| 2026-11-05 | NVDA | SELL 100% | BreakdownDown_20D | Closed | -4.3% | — |
| 2026-11-05 | ASML | SELL 100% | BreakdownDown_20D | Closed | +13.1% | — |
| 2026-11-05 | TSM | SELL 100% | BreakdownDown_20D | Closed | +17.1% | — |
| 2026-11-04 | NVDA | SELL 100% | BreakdownDown_20D | Closed | -15.6% | — |
| 2026-11-04 | ASML | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | +0.8% | — |
| 2026-11-04 | TSM | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | +0.2% | — |
| 2026-11-03 | NVDA | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | -13.6% | — |
| 2026-11-03 | ASML | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | -2.5% | — |
| 2026-11-03 | TSM | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | -4.0% | — |
| 2026-11-02 | NVDA | SELL 100% | BreakdownDown_20D | Closed | -7.6% | — |
| 2026-11-02 | ASML | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | -6.6% | — |
| 2026-11-02 | TSM | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | -5.8% | — |
| 2026-10-30 | NVDA | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | -11.3% | — |
| 2026-10-30 | ASML | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | -13.4% | — |
| 2026-10-30 | TSM | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | -13.1% | — |
| 2026-10-29 | NVDA | SELL 30% | NoTrade | Closed | -6.3% | — |
| 2026-10-29 | TSM | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | -8.3% | — |
| 2026-10-28 | NVDA | SELL 30% | NoTrade | Closed | -4.0% | — |
| 2026-10-27 | NVDA | SELL 30% | NoTrade | Closed | -7.3% | — |
| 2026-10-27 | ASML | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | -6.7% | — |
| 2026-10-23 | NVDA | SELL 30% | NoTrade | Closed | +1.3% | — |
| 2026-10-23 | ASML | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | +6.6% | — |
| 2026-10-23 | TSM | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | +3.2% | — |
| 2026-10-22 | NVDA | SELL 30% | NoTrade | Closed | +1.5% | — |
| 2026-10-22 | ASML | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | +6.6% | — |
| 2026-10-22 | TSM | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | +6.6% | — |
| 2026-10-21 | NVDA | SELL 30% | NoTrade | Closed | -1.8% | — |
| 2026-10-21 | ASML | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | -2.5% | — |
| 2026-10-21 | TSM | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | +1.1% | — |
| 2026-10-20 | NVDA | SELL 30% | NoTrade | Closed | -0.2% | — |
| 2026-10-20 | ASML | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | -2.5% | — |
| 2026-10-20 | TSM | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | -0.2% | — |
| 2026-10-19 | NVDA | SELL 30% | NoTrade | Closed | -2.8% | — |
| 2026-10-19 | ASML | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | -4.6% | — |
| 2026-10-19 | TSM | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | -0.4% | — |
| 2026-10-16 | NVDA | SELL 30% | NoTrade | Closed | -0.9% | -22.4% |
| 2026-10-16 | ASML | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | -4.9% | -8.8% |
| 2026-10-16 | TSM | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | -0.1% | -1.7% |
| 2026-10-15 | NVDA | SELL 30% | NoTrade | Closed | +2.2% | -20.0% |
| 2026-10-15 | ASML | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | +1.2% | -7.4% |
| 2026-10-15 | TSM | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | +2.3% | -2.1% |
| 2026-10-14 | NVDA | SELL 30% | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | Closed | -2.2% | -23.7% |
| 2026-10-14 | ASML | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | -1.2% | -8.6% |
| 2026-10-14 | TSM | SELL 100% | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | Closed | -1.1% | -7.8% |
| 2026-10-07 | TSM | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | -5.7% | -14.3% |
| 2026-10-06 | AMD | BUY QUEUED @650.71 | MomentumContinuation_Up | Stopped out | -6.9% | -25.6% |
| 2026-10-02 | NVDA | ADD QUEUED @235.91 | BreakoutUp_52W | Stopped out | -2.8% | -13.3% |
| 2026-10-01 | SNDK | BUY @1787.69 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | Stopped out | -5.3% | -21.4% |
| 2026-09-29 | TSM | SELL 100% | ReversalDown_Overbought | Closed | +6.3% | -7.1% |
| 2026-09-28 | TSM | SELL 100% | AnticipationUp_VCP | Closed | +4.4% | -7.6% |
| 2026-09-22 | SNDK | BUY QUEUED @1846.17 | AnticipationUp_VCP | Stopped out | -6.3% | -26.0% |
| 2026-09-21 | ASML | SELL 100% | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | +1.9% | -4.1% |
| 2026-09-21 | AMD | BUY QUEUED @566.28 | BreakoutUp_52W | Not filled | — | — |
| 2026-09-18 | AMD | BUY QUEUED @553.87 | AnticipationUp_VCP | Stopped out | +13.9% | -4.5% |
| 2026-09-17 | AMD | BUY QUEUED @532.61 | BreakoutUp_52W | Stopped out | +18.1% | +5.6% |
| 2026-09-17 | NVDA | SELL | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | +2.8% | +0.9% |
| 2026-09-16 | NVDA | SELL | NoTrade | Closed | +5.4% | +3.5% |
| 2026-09-16 | ASML | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | +9.1% | +7.2% |
| 2026-09-16 | AMD | BUY QUEUED @512.50 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | Stopped out | +22.8% | +9.7% |
| 2026-09-15 | ASML | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | +7.5% | +10.0% |
| 2026-09-15 | NVDA | SELL | NoTrade | Closed | +6.3% | +4.3% |
| 2026-09-15 | TSM | SELL 100% | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | Closed | +9.2% | +7.6% |
| 2026-09-14 | ASML | SELL 100% | RallySell_BearTrend | Closed | +6.7% | +13.0% |
| 2026-09-14 | NVDA | SELL | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | Closed | +8.5% | +8.3% |
| 2026-09-11 | AMD | BUY @516.13 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | Stopped out | +8.5% | +17.8% |
| 2026-09-11 | NVDA | SELL 30% | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | Closed | +4.2% | +3.7% |
| 2026-09-11 | ASML | SELL 30% | NoTrade | Closed | -4.0% | +4.2% |
| 2026-09-04 | ASML | SELL 100% | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | -5.0% | +3.2% |
| 2026-09-03 | ASML | SELL 100% | RallySell_BearTrend | Closed | -1.0% | +7.5% |
| 2026-09-03 | TSM | SELL @417.01 | NoTrade | Closed | +4.2% | +8.7% |
| 2026-09-02 | ASML | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | -3.1% | +5.2% |
| 2026-09-02 | TSM | SELL @415.50 | NoTrade | Closed | +4.6% | +9.1% |
| 2026-09-01 | ASML | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | -2.1% | +6.3% |
| 2026-09-01 | TSM | SELL of | NoTrade | Closed | +5.0% | +9.5% |
| 2026-08-28 | NVDA | SELL 30% | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | Closed | +4.5% | +4.0% |
| 2026-08-28 | ASML | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | -3.9% | +4.3% |
| 2026-08-28 | TSM | SELL @417.52 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | Closed | +4.1% | +8.6% |
| 2026-08-27 | NVDA | SELL 30% | AnticipationUp_VCP | Closed | -0.3% | -0.7% |
| 2026-08-27 | ASML | SELL 100% | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | Closed | -6.1% | +2.0% |
| 2026-08-27 | TSM | SELL 30% @427.30 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | Closed | +1.7% | +6.1% |
| 2026-08-24 | ASML | SELL 30% @1740.13 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | Closed | -6.3% | +1.7% |
| 2026-08-24 | TSM | SELL 30% @410.12 | NoTrade | Closed | +6.0% | +10.5% |
| 2026-08-21 | TSM | SELL 30% @418.95 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | Closed | +3.8% | +8.2% |
| 2026-08-20 | TSM | SELL 30% | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | Closed | +4.5% | +9.0% |
| 2026-08-19 | ASML | SELL 30% | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | Closed | -7.0% | +1.0% |
| 2026-08-19 | TSM | SELL 50% | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | Closed | +5.5% | +10.0% |
| 2026-08-18 | ASML | SELL 30% | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | Closed | -9.6% | -1.8% |
| 2026-08-18 | TSM | SELL 30% | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | Closed | +5.1% | +9.7% |
| 2026-08-17 | TSM | SELL 50% | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | Closed | +0.9% | +5.2% |
| 2026-08-14 | TSM | SELL 50% | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | Closed | +1.9% | +6.3% |
| 2026-08-13 | NVDA | BUY QUEUED @225.76 | AnticipationUp_VCP | Not filled | — | — |
| 2026-08-12 | ASML | BUY QUEUED @1826.98 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | Not filled | — | — |
| 2026-08-11 | AMD | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | +18.0% | +28.2% |
| 2026-08-10 | AMD | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | +19.2% | +29.5% |
| 2026-08-06 | NVDA | BUY @<=220.00 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | Stopped out | +3.8% | +3.4% |
| 2026-08-04 | TSM | SELL 78% | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | Closed | +4.2% | +8.7% |
| 2026-08-03 | TSM | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | +7.0% | +11.6% |
| 2026-08-03 | AMD | SELL 30% | NoTrade | Closed | +15.5% | +25.5% |
| 2026-07-31 | TSM | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | +7.5% | +12.1% |
| 2026-07-31 | AMD | SELL 30% | NoTrade | Closed | +17.6% | +27.7% |
| 2026-07-30 | TSM | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | +7.8% | +12.4% |
| 2026-07-29 | AMD | SELL 100% | RallySell_BearTrend | Closed | +30.3% | +41.6% |
| 2026-07-29 | TSM | SELL 100% | ReversalUp_Oversold | Closed | +16.0% | +21.0% |
| 2026-07-28 | AMD | SELL 100% | RallySell_BearTrend | Closed | +23.1% | +33.8% |
| 2026-07-28 | TSM | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | +10.8% | +15.6% |
| 2026-07-27 | TSM | SELL 100% | NoTrade | Closed | +8.9% | +13.6% |
| 2026-07-27 | AMD | SELL 30% | RallySell_BearTrend | Closed | +13.1% | +22.9% |
| 2026-07-24 | TSM | SELL 30% | NoTrade | Closed | +7.8% | +12.4% |
| 2026-07-17 | TSM | SELL 50% | RallySell_BearTrend | Closed | +6.1% | +10.6% |
| 2026-07-10 | ASX | BUY @43.25 starter | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | Stopped out | -3.8% | +7.3% |
| 2026-07-07 | TSM | BUY @451.79 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | Stopped out | -3.8% | +0.3% |
| 2026-07-07 | AMD | BUY @552.05 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | Stopped out | +1.4% | +10.2% |