Recommendations
0 to acquire · 2 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| ASML | ASML Holding NV | 1665.14 | SELL ALL | 1665.14 | 1736.47⚠ | n/a | n/a | 1565.01 (-6.0%) | Full exit. ASML has closed 4.11% (1.61x ATR) below its own risk line of 1736.47 with a twelve-week model view of -6.01% — a decisive stop break paired with a negative forward view, which is the book's standing exit basis (L2). The engine has printed NO TRADE with zero conviction for three consecutive sessions ('Consensus conflict + low conviction'), and the shares sit below every moving average except the 200-day. The business is genuinely excellent — 2026 guidance was lifted to EUR 43-45bn and the stock is +63.5% year-to-date — but management has itself warned 2026 may not deliver growth amid tariff uncertainty, and none of that has arrested a six-session slide through our risk line. A great business we are not being paid to own on this horizon is a position, not a thesis. Operational: realized - / -8.86% on a; proceeds. PROFIT_ARMED prints on an 8.86% loss (systemic finding 10) and is set aside — L2 originates. G2 suppresses the MoS_FV -4.28 amplify (DCF anchor 836.25 vs 1665.14 = 1.99x). Scorecard NoTrade|sell bias -6 (n=12, hit_1w 0.182) stated and overruled on L2 grounds. 1wk/4wk n/a — a NO TRADE row prints no Target_Price (finding 15). · news |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing C | 414.00 | SELL 50% | 414.00 | 405.91 | n/a | n/a | 393.70 (-4.9%) | Halve the remaining stake. Conviction collapsed from 61 to zero in a single session ('Consensus conflict + low conviction') and the twelve-week model view has now been negative for twelve consecutive prints, currently -4.90%. TSMC's fundamentals are not the problem — 2026 capex was raised to -64bn, the last quarter delivered +35% revenue and +58% EPS at 66% gross margin, and the 3nm ramp is accelerating — but the shares trade roughly 15% above independent fair-value estimates after a 363% run, and the sector has just given back trillion since June. When the technical is broken, de-risk to the technical's own tier and let only a defined core ride the catalyst. Operational: armed (PROFIT_ARMED) with two ADR-0012 ticks firing — (b) conviction -61 vs the prior EOD anchor, (c) 12wk 393.70 below the 1.02x band of 422.28 — mapping to profit_take_2 = 50% of = 1.5, rounded DOWN to 1 to avoid stranding a single share (terminal-tranche rule, findings 5/7). After this fill TSM is formally exit-or-hold at. Realized - / -5.48%. The 'profit-take' label is false (position is 5.48% underwater, Gain_ATR -2.46; finding 10). G2 suppresses the MoS_FV -13.82 tier bump — DCF anchor 46.22 vs 414.00 is an 8.96x divergence, the most broken anchor in the mandate. No full exit available: L2 does not fire (close +0.83x ATR ABOVE trail), ADR-0012 caps at 50%, ADR-0020 does not fire (peak stop 405.91, live line unmoved). 1wk/4wk n/a (finding 15). Next hard read: TSMC August monthly revenue 09-10. · news |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 217.44 | HOLD | 217.44 | 211.56 | 222.21 (+2.2%) | 233.35 (+7.3%) | 229.42 (+5.5%) | Hold the full and keep the stop at 211.56. Nvidia is the one name in this book still working: it closed above its 50-, 100- and 200-day averages on a session when semiconductor names fell, RSI is a neutral 51.9, and the twelve-week model view remains positive at +5.51%. The last quarter was a record (revenue, +106% YoY; Data Center +117%) with guidance pointing to another, and the shares trade at ~17.8x forward earnings against a 20.8x sector average. Nothing in the current signal originates a sell. Operational: armed (PROFIT_ARMED, T12_Progress 94.78) with ZERO ADR-0012 ticks — (a) no second warning code, (b) conviction -2 vs the 63 prior EOD anchor, (c) 12wk 229.42 vs 1.02x band 221.79 = alive, (d) HOLD x5 not NO TRADE. Armed-without-tick = mandatory trail-raise, and the raise is a NO-OP: the 2.0x ATR chandelier computes to 201.53, BELOW the recorded 211.56 trail, which cannot be lowered. Clearance 0.74x ATR — inside finding 9's proposed 1.0x floor; stated, not glossed. Retained risk x 253 = = 0.15% of book. RE-ARM to DISPOSE on ANY of: close below 211.56 (L2); Target_12Week below 221.79 (tick c); conviction <=41 (tick b); a second Exit_Warning code (tick a); two consecutive NO TRADE prints (tick d). Counterargument on record: counterfactual optional_trim n=14 runs -5.06%/-15.33% ('cost'), i.e. NOT de-risking has been this book's most expensive habit — advisory only per ADR-0012 and barred from adjusting conviction, but if NVDA is materially lower in a week this entry is the scored error. Estimates at f=0.30 (L5, calib_1w -0.226). 12wk exceeds DCF anchor 163.98 (1.33x). · news |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing C | 414.00 | HOLD | 414.00 | 405.91 | n/a | n/a | 393.70 (-4.9%) | Retain a 2-share core behind the 405.91 stop after the halving. TSMC's business case is intact — raised 2026 capex, accelerating 3nm ramp, a dividend going ex on 16 September — and the position is now too small to matter to book risk, so it is being wound down in an orderly way rather than dumped into a sector rout. Operational: TSM is formally exit-or-hold at after this fill. Trail HELD at 405.91; the 2.0x ATR chandelier computes to 394.51, below the recorded trail, so no raise is available. Clearance 0.83x ATR — inside finding 9's proposed 1.0x floor. Retained risk x 2 =. Next hard read: TSMC August monthly revenue 09-10. · news |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | 933.44 | WATCH | 933.44 | 911.12 | 960.23 (+2.9%) | 1022.73 (+9.6%) | 983.92 (+5.4%) | Near-miss, no action. Micron is the most resilient name on the board — down only 2.64% on a session when the median semiconductor name fell 2.13% and the sector index sits ~20% below its June high — and the only holding candidate pairing a passing quality screen with a defensible valuation anchor (DCF 772.94 vs a 933.44 price). But a WATCH label is not an actionable buy, and after the valuation haircut and this book's own track record on chase-family entries the adjusted conviction lands at 45, well short of the 65 floor. Operational: val_adj -6 (degree-scaled from MoS_FV -1.160; note B does not suppress, anchor is 1.21x). FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy read at the -10 USC-3 floor — live cell n=5, hit_1w 0.400, hit_4w 0.000. 61 - 6 - 10 = 45. RE-ARM: raw conviction >=82 on a bullish-actionable print, or a PullbackBuy_VWAP confirmation. Standing 07-05 overlay override carried (invalidated on HBM pricing cracks or a decisive stop break) but the overlay is 58 days stale. |
| KLAC | KLA Corporation | 170.89 | WATCH | 170.89 | 155.71 | 176.06 (+3.0%) | 188.12 (+10.1%) | 104.30 (-39.0%) | Blocked, no action. KLA is the only genuinely constructive signal change on the board — the family flipped from a bearish distribution read to an oversold-reversal setup at RSI 33.4, the most washed-out reading in the mandate. It is also the wrong trade: the shares closed below their 200-day average, the F-Score/FCF quality screen fails outright, and the twelve-week model view is deeply negative. An oversold bounce on a name under its 200-day in a sector bear market is exactly the setup this book has learned to refuse. Operational: quality gate F blocks new entries. val_adj -10 (clamped from MoS_FV -3.93 x 5 = -20). ReversalUp_Oversold|sell is n=1, report-only; no buy-side cell exists. 55 - 10 = adj 45, gate-blocked regardless. |
| SNDK | Sandisk Corporation | 1536.87 | WATCH | 1536.87 | 1483.37 | 1601.07 (+4.2%) | 1750.88 (+13.9%) | 1475.91 (-4.0%) | Near-miss, no action — and the cleanest vindication of the no-chase rule this week. Sandisk printed an outright BUY at conviction 67 on 31 August; the book did not queue it, and by tonight's close the signal had faded to WATCH at 49 with the shares down another 1.90%. That is the third time in six sessions (after Corning and Micron) that a one-day buy spike has round-tripped before it could be filled. Operational: val_adj -6 (MoS_FV -1.106, Quality_Pass True). FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy read at the -10 USC-3 floor. 49 - 6 - 10 = 33. Do not fill a BUY spike that fades to WATCH by the next open (L1/US-1). |
| LITE | Lumentum Holdings | 868.95 | WATCH | 868.95 | 834.93 | 909.77 (+4.7%) | 1005.03 (+15.7%) | 1004.03 (+15.5%) | Blocked, no action — second consecutive session of vindication. Lumentum has now fallen 11.1% in two sessions (-6.39% then -5.01%) from the level this book refused five separate times while it was running. It fails the quality screen and carries the most extreme overvaluation reading in the mandate. Operational: quality gate F. val_adj -10 (clamped from MoS_FV -34.07). FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy at the -10 USC-3 floor. 54 - 10 - 10 = 34. The counterfactual grader should price the refusal favourably. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
38 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.226 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
53 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.