US Semiconductors — End-of-Day Verdict
0 ACQUIRE, 0 ANTICIPATE, 1 DISPOSE | TRIM TSM 50% - 23 of @ 426.35 =, retaining a 24-share core, stop 413.27. ADR-0012 armed (PROFIT_ARMED) with TWO ticks fired: (b) conviction, a -34 collapse, and (c) Target_12Week 424.40 now sits BELOW the 426.35 close. That ends a 29-session withhold whose stated basis was 'only tick (c) fires'. The valuation bump is SUPPRESSED by G2 - TSM's DCF_per_share prints 45.38 against a 426.35 price, a 9.4x scale mismatch no other name shows, so MoS -14.26 is a unit artifact read directionally only; combined with 'never 100% from profit-take alone', no stop break (426.35 is 3.1% above the trail) and the optional_trim counterfactual (n=10, 'cost', one tier not two), the trim stays at one tier | ACQUIRE NO ACTION - three BUYs printed (Buy_Ranks 1-2-3) and all three failed. LITE (cv76, Rank 1) blocked four ways: hard quality gate, MoS -25.39 -> val_adj -10, FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy bias -5 now ACTIONABLE (crossed n=5 tonight, exactly as USC-3 predicted), adj 61 under the floor, plus L6 - it printed Q4 on 08-11 (rev +109% YoY, Q1 guide +130%) and FELL 5.58%. AAOI (cv74, Rank 2) was the only name to CLEAR the floor and was declined on three named grounds: Target_12Week 148.34 sits BELOW the 152.91 buy-stop (-2.99%, dead at entry); the stop is 3.76 ATR / -42.5% away, which at 35.06 is of risk = 2.98% of the book on one name, a 5.6x outlier vs NVDA's 0.53%; and USC-3's clause that a gate override is never a licence to chase - its gate is only OFF because the model produced no FV at all (Val_Signal NA, EPV -3.38, Quality_Pass False). Re-arm on a PullbackBuy_VWAP, or a BreakoutUp with a stop inside ~2 ATR AND a 12wk above entry. MU (cv69, Rank 3) is the cleanest on quality (Quality_Pass True, MoS -0.99) and still lands at adj 59, six under the floor | ANTICIPATE none eligible - NVDA satisfied 2-of-3 but is now HELD and prints cv0; the slot already did its job | NVDA's 08-13 QUEUED-ANTICIPATE FILLED on strength at 226.80 (, USC-4 now 3-for-3); marks -0.72% and the news CONFIRMS - a > AI-infrastructure financing vehicle with Apollo/BlackRock/Blackstone/Brookfield/Goldman/KKR, street PT 271.49. NO TRADE cv0 is 1 print, not the 2 required; no flip-flop one session after entry. FQ2 prints 08-26, 7 sessions out | ASML armed-but-NOT-fired (tick b -15 < 20, 12wk 1993.33 alive) - trail, don't trim; the mandatory raise is UNAVAILABLE because the 2.0xATR chandelier (1724.00) sits below the standing 1776.26, which therefore STANDS | Valuation layer has zero cross-sectional signal: names GROWTH_PRICED_IN, val_adj can only subtract | Book, 11.2%; the trim frees against of buys, ->
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co | 426.35 | SELL 50% | 426.35 | 413.27 | 420.07 (-1.5%) | 447.27 (+4.9%) | 424.40 (-0.5%) | TSMC's twelve-week outlook has gone dead while the signal underneath it collapsed, so we are banking half the position and keeping a core. The model's own 12-week target (424.40) has fallen below the current price (426.35) - there is no projected upside left to hold for - and conviction dropped 34 points in a single session, the sharpest deterioration on the board. The July results were excellent (revenue +36% YoY, profit +77%, 2026 guidance raised) but that is already in the price; the stock fell 3-4% on the print itself and this book has been burned once before treating a TSMC beat as a reason to keep an oversized loser. Cutting half here leaves a defined core exposed to the +4.9% four-week objective while removing the position that the model no longer supports. || ADR-0012 armed (PROFIT_ARMED) + 2 ticks: (b) conviction -34 >= 20, (c) T12 424.40 < 1.02x426.35 = 434.88. profit_take_2 = 50%. Valuation amplify SUPPRESSED by G2 - DCF_per_share 45.38 vs price 426.35 is a 9.4x scale mismatch (every other name within ~2.5x), so MoS -14.26 is a unit artifact read directionally only. Also honours 'never 100% from profit-take alone' and the optional_trim counterfactual (n=10, median withheld 1wk -0.9%/4wk -15.33%, 'cost') which argues one tier not two. NOT USC-5 (above trail/EMA200/VWAP), NOT ADR-0020 (trail has only ratcheted up 405.26->413.27, erosion 0%). Ends a 29-session withhold whose stated basis was 'only tick (c) fires' - tick (b) now fires too. Stop 413.27 unchanged (model 405.43 and the 2.0xATR chandelier 405.43 are both looser). 1wk f=0.30 mandatory per L5 (calib_1w -0.207 degenerate). Retained core. · news |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 225.16 | HOLD | 225.16 | 206.05 | n/a | n/a | 254.69 (+13.1%) | Holding the position we just bought. The anticipation queue filled on strength at 226.80 and the stock closed at 225.16 - day-one noise on a thesis that got stronger, not weaker: NVIDIA unveiled a financing vehicle to mobilise more than for AI infrastructure alongside Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR, effectively underwriting its own customers' ability to buy GPUs. Latest quarter revenue was (+85% YoY) with data centre up 92%, and the street target sits 20% above here. The signal engine prints NO TRADE on a consensus conflict, but that is a single print on a one-day-old position and is not a reason to undo it. || GTC buy-stop from the 08-13 anticipate slot FILLED (ussemicon-20260815-0001, @ 226.80) - USC-4 now 3-for-3 on reclaim/anticipate buy-stops. NO TRADE cv0 is 1 print, not the 2 consecutive required by ADR-0012 tick (d); no flip-flop one session after entry. Not armed (no PROFIT_ARMED). Stop 206.05 = risk = 0.53% of the book. FQ2 FY27 prints 2026-08-26, 7 sessions out - outside the <=5-session catalyst window; re-assess at the 08-24 EOD and do not pre-trim into it. · news |
| ASML | ASML Holding NV | 1844.08 | HOLD | 1844.08 | 1776.26 | n/a | 1964.16 (+6.5%) | 1993.33 (+8.1%) | Riding the winner and leaving the stop where it is. ASML is up 0.94% three sessions after the buy-stop filled and its twelve-week projection is still 8% above the current price, so there is nothing here to sell - the profit-protection flag fired only on a technicality and none of the deterioration conditions that would turn it into a trim are present: conviction eased 15 points (the threshold is 20) and the forward view is fully intact. Trail rather than trim. || PROFIT_ARMED (T12_Progress 92.51%) but ARMED-NOT-FIRED: tick (b) = -15 < 20; tick (c) T12 1993.33 > 1.02x1844.08 = 1881.02, alive; no second Exit_Warning code; no repeated NO TRADE. Mandatory trail-raise is UNAVAILABLE - the tightened 2.0xATR chandelier computes to 1724.00 (= model Stop_Price) and 1.5xATR gives 1754.02, both BELOW the standing 1776.26; a trail never moves down, so 1776.26 stands. G1/G3 winner protection (US-3/USC-5 counterpoint) also applies: constructive fade, not a broken technical. AMAT FQ3 printed 08-13 (ecosystem WFE read-through) - AMAT beat and raised but fell ~2.5% AH; no ASML-specific move in the 08-13/08-14 window. |
Outcome & track record