Recommendations
0 to acquire · 2 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| ASML | ASML Holding NV | 1740.13 | SELL 30% | 1740.13 | 1735.76 | 1770.21 (+1.7%) | 1840.40 (+5.8%) | 1772.73 (+1.9%) | ASML's 12-week model view has gone flat for the first time in this holding - the projection now sits just below the current price, which is the deterioration we were waiting for on an already-armed position - so we bank a third of the stake and leave the majority working. The business case is intact: FY26 revenue guidance stands at EUR 43-45B, the January buyback is still running (fresh transactions reported 08-24), and the China immersion-DUV scare that drove the de-rate is worth an estimated EUR 1.4B, ~2.4% of group sales. This is a scale-out on a stale forward view, not an exit. ADR-0012 armed (T12_Progress 98.16) + fire tick (c) NEWLY true: Target_12Week 1,772.73 vs the 1.02x dead band of 1,774.93 (-0.12%), after +6.68% on 08-19 and +3.55% on 08-21 - a transition, not the TSM ratchet. Ticks (a)/(b)/(d) clean: Exit_Warning prints bare PROFIT_ARMED and the column is comma-joined (repo sweep returns RSI_DIV,PROFIT_ARMED / CLIMAX_VOL,PROFIT_ARMED / EMA10_BREAK,PROFIT_ARMED), so this is a structural read, not a hand-derivation; conviction = -7 vs the 20-pt bar; HOLD, no NO-TRADE run. Base 30% tier, unescalated - G2 suppresses the MoS -4.48 amplify because FV_per_share 317.28 vs a 1,740.13 price is a 5.48x mismatch and Target_12Week is 2.11x the DCF anchor (841.33); val_adj 0. Scorecard +10 on FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|sell (n=8, hit_1w 1.000), this book's only strongly positive cell. Adj conviction 52 - below the 65 floor, which governs ACQUIRES only; a fired ADR-0012 profit-take is mandatory and not conviction-gated. Provenance: 1,740.13 IS the anchor snapshot's Entry_Price and equals the settled close; band 1,735.78-1,744.48, reprice if the open gaps >~1.5%. Retained : trail raised 1,735.59 -> 1,735.76 (EMA50), risk to line. Realized on the sold: -. 1wk uses f=0.30 (L5, calib_1w -0.226 negative for a 15th run). 12wk 1,772.73 exceeds the DCF anchor 841.33 - projection assumes growth beyond priced-in. · news |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing C | 410.12 | SELL 30% | 410.12 | 404.35 | n/a | n/a | 388.57 (-5.3%) | Taiwan Semi's engine read collapsed outright on Monday - the signal layer now prints no trade at all, the share closed below every short- and medium-term moving average, and the 12-week model view sits 5.3% BELOW the market price - so we take the last small scale-out slice on a position already reduced to a token holding. The business is emphatically fine (Q2 revenue +36% YoY, net income and EPS both +77%, FY26 growth guided above 40%, capex raised to -64B, average broker rating 1.24 across 17 firms); this is model discipline on a stub, not a call on TSMC, and it is explicitly not a case for taking the balance. ADR-0012 armed (T12_Progress 105.55) + tick (c) for a 7th consecutive session: Target_12Week 388.57 vs the 1.02x dead band of 418.32 (-5.25%, the widest of the seven). Tick (b) explicitly NOT counted: the step is the NoTrade placeholder (Signal=NoTrade, Pillar_Consensus=Indeterminate, Exit_Strategy=none, NoTrade_Reason='Consensus conflict + low conviction'), and ADR-0012 already routes that state through tick (d), which requires 2 consecutive NO TRADE prints - TSM has 1 (08-21 was HOLD). Counting it twice would void tick (d)'s two-session bar; the AMD 08-10/08-11 cards are the governing precedent. Ticks (a)/(d) clean. Unlike the prior six firings the technical genuinely broke tonight: close 410.12 under EMA5/10/20/50 (415.61/417.20/417.30/416.82), only +1.43% above EMA100, VWAP_Distance flipped to -0.13%, Trend Bullish -> Neutral_True, Volatility Bearish. G2 suppresses the MoS -13.76 amplify (DCF 45.96 vs 410.12 = 8.92x; FV/sh 27.78 = 14.76x - broken anchor); val_adj 0. Scorecard NoTrade|sell -6 (n=10, hit_1w 0.200, hit_4w 0.000) ARGUES AGAINST this card and is recorded as an override, not a silence - it fires because a fired ADR-0012 profit-take is mandatory and not conviction-gated, and because the optional_trim counterfactual (n=13, -5.14% 1wk / -15.33% 4wk, 'cost') says under-trimming is this book's characteristic failure. 30% of 4 = 1.2 ->. Provenance: the NoTrade row prints a BLANK Entry_Price, so the action price is the settled close 410.12 (same convention as the AMD NO-TRADE cards); band 407.16-413.08, reprice if the open gaps >~1.5%. Retained : trail raised 404.24 -> 404.35 (EMA100), risk to line. Realized on the sold: -. 1wk/4wk are n/a because the NoTrade row emits no Target_Price to interpolate from; the scan's own band is 401.92-433.12. Materiality: a order = 0.042% of book - systemic finding 6 (no min trade size) is now the binding constraint on this position, not the signal. · news |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 208.48 | HOLD | 208.48 | 206.32 | 211.92 (+1.7%) | 219.96 (+5.5%) | 216.73 (+4.0%) | We hold all into Wednesday's Q2 print. The position is armed on profit-progress but not one deterioration tick has fired - conviction actually ROSE, the only held name to gain - and the catalyst-aware rule is explicit that you trail through an earnings event and never pre-trim into it. The setup is genuinely two-sided: consensus revenue and EPS against company guidance of +/-2% excluding China Data Center compute, NVDA has beaten EPS all four of the last four quarters, but the stock has FALLEN on the print in six of the last eight, has now declined seven sessions running, and the tape is chewing on a reported 15% price hike to some customers plus Microsoft and Meta building competing silicon. ADR-0012: armed (T12_Progress 96.19), zero ticks - (a) bare PROFIT_ARMED, structurally verified (VWAP_Distance is -2.00%, the first negative print of the holding, but AVWAP_BREAK needs two consecutive bars); (b) conviction +7; (c) Target_12Week 216.73 vs the 1.02x band of 212.65 is alive at +1.92%, thinner than last night's +7.31% and the tick to watch; (d) HOLD, no NO-TRADE run. Armed-without-a-tick mandates a trail-raise WHERE LEGAL and none is: the 2.0x chandelier prints 197.00 and EMA100 205.57, both BELOW the standing 206.32, and EMA50 210.46 sits ABOVE the 208.48 close so adopting it would be an instant stop-out. A trail never moves down and never jumps above the market - stop HOLDS at 206.32 for a 3rd session, recorded explicitly so the omission is not read as drift. MATERIAL CHANGE: re-struck on tonight's close the options-implied +/-6.75% band is -, so the 206.32 stop now sits INSIDE it - last night it sat 1.3% below the implied low. Nothing about the stop changed; the stock fell into it. A routine down-move within the implied band now exits this position two sessions before any post-print recovery can be assessed - that is the accepted cost of the discipline, and it is cheap in dollars: risk to stop is = 0.056% of book. NVDA is 75.3% of capital, 81.9% after tonight's two trims. L6 stands - no queue on this book may live into 08-26, and none exists. 1wk uses f=0.30 (L5). · news |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | 910.43 | WATCH | 910.43 | 881.24 | 945.46 (+3.8%) | 1027.18 (+12.8%) | 980.61 (+7.7%) | Not bought. Micron prints WATCH rather than a buy trigger and fell 5.83% - the sharpest decline of any quality-gate-passing name on a day when all twenty mandate names fell - so there is no actionable entry and no reason to reach for one. Conviction flat at 54; even if the row were bullish-actionable it would fail the floor at adj 44 after the USC-3 -10 read of this book's FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy cell (3/3 stop-first realized, hit_1w 0.0). Re-arm trigger unchanged: raw conviction >= 82 on a bullish-actionable print, OR a PullbackBuy_VWAP confirmation. The stale MU overlay override (WEEK 2026-07-05, 50 days) cannot open a conviction floor for a new entry and is 0, so there is nothing to hold either. |
| SNDK | Sandisk Corporation | 1493.12 | WATCH | 1493.12 | 1416.56 | 1574.49 (+5.4%) | 1764.34 (+18.2%) | 1473.35 (-1.3%) | Not bought. Sandisk posted the largest conviction GAIN on the board (+ while falling 6.45%, and it is the biggest MSCI World add at the 08-31 review effective close - a genuine structural bid - but the quality gate fails (F-Score/FCF screen), which hard-blocks new entries, and WATCH is not a bullish-actionable print in any case. USC-3 is explicit that a gate override is never a licence to chase a FailedBreakdown-family buy. Adj 39 against the 65 floor. Watch only; re-arm needs the gate to pass AND a bullish-actionable print. |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology | 229.29 | WATCH | 229.29 | 220.14 | 240.27 (+4.8%) | 265.90 (+16.0%) | 255.19 (+11.3%) | Not bought. Marvell prints WATCH cv54 (-7) on a -3.27% close, fails the quality gate, and carries a MoS of -7.07 - blocked on three independent grounds before the 65 floor is even reached (adj 44). Q2 FY27 prints 2026-08-27, one session after NVDA, and L6 forbids queueing an entry into a post-earnings gap - so even a strengthening print between now and then does not become buyable this week. Watch through the print. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
30 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.226 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
53 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.