Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing C | 418.95 | SELL 30% | 418.95 | 404.24 | 425.75 (+1.6%) | 441.63 (+5.4%) | 402.81 (-3.9%) | Taking a small further slice of profit-protection off TSMC and keeping four shares. The business could hardly be doing better - second-quarter revenue grew 34% to with margins above guidance, the stock is up 82% over the past year and the Street's target is around - but our own twelve-week model now projects a price about 4% BELOW today's close, and that has been true for six sessions running. When the forward view goes negative on a position we are already protecting, the discipline is to keep taking size off rather than argue with it. The stop under the remaining shares rises to. ADR-0012: armed (T12_Progress 104.01) + tick (c) ONLY - Target_12Week 402.81 sits -3.85% through the 1.02x dead band of 427.33 for a 6th consecutive session. Every other tick is clean and verified against exit_warnings.py rather than hand-derived: (a) no second code (RSI_DIV needs a 20-bar high, price is 12.5% below the 479.00 52w high; CLIMAX_VOL and EMA10_BREAK both need RSI>70, RSI is 50.4; AVWAP_BREAK needs 2 closes below pivot AVWAP, VWAP_Distance is +2.25%); (b) conviction is -7 vs the 20-pt bar; (d) HOLD, no NO-TRADE run. One tick, no Tier-2/3 code -> 30% base tier, unescalated; the retired 08-19 hand-derived EMA10_BREAK makes no appearance. G3 does not block - a negative forward view is G3's trigger, not its veto. G2 SUPPRESSES the valuation amplify for a 6th session: MoS -14.46 would bump but DCF 45.97 vs 418.95 = 9.11x broken anchor (same class as TSLA 10.59x, INTC 6.66x, ARM 5.29x), so val_adj 0. Adjusted conviction 49 + 0 + 10 = 59 on FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|sell (n=7, hit_1w 1.000, this book's only strongly positive actionable cell). The 65 floor governs ACQUIRES; a fired ADR-0012 profit-take is MANDATORY and not conviction-gated - stated because adj 59 is below last night's 66 and the card fires anyway. The row improved on every other axis: +0.71% close (3rd up-day), back above EMA5/10/20/50 (418.35/418.78/418.06/417.09), Trend upgraded to Bullish, inside the Est band 410.57-432.87. MATERIALITY OBJECTION (systemic findings 6+7): on = 0.086% of book, the 7th trim from to 4, and tick (c) is a persistent STATE with no cooldown - it has fired 6 sessions running while the stock rose in 4 of them and each fill printed above the prior card's ref (417.00 -> 418.13 -> 408.60 -> 423.015). L8: executes at the Mon 2026-08-24 open, reprice if it gaps >~1.5% (band 416.12-421.78). Prior card filled at the 08-21 open @423.015, +1.69% vs its 416.00 ref. · news |
| ASML | ASML Holding NV | 1763.76 | HOLD | 1763.76 | 1735.59 | 1795.93 (+1.8%) | 1871.00 (+6.1%) | 1826.42 (+3.6%) | Holding all nine shares and lifting the stop. ASML rose for a second day and is back on its 20-day average, with the four-session slide in signal strength having stopped and reversed. The whole drawdown traces to a July report that a Chinese state-backed firm has started making its own immersion DUV lithography machines - but the plan is five machines this year against ASML's 131 shipments last year, and even twenty domestic tools next year would cost an estimated EUR 1.4B, about 2.4% of group sales. Bank of America calls the selloff an overreaction and keeps a Buy with a target, roughly 61% above tonight's price. A 2.4% revenue risk does not justify a 7% de-rate, so we hold the core and raise the line under it. ADR-0012: armed (T12_Progress 96.57) with ZERO ticks - conviction is +2 (the only held name whose conviction rose); Target_12Week 1826.42 alive at +3.55% over the 1799.04 band; no second code (RSI 50.5, VWAP_Distance +3.32%, 11.8% below the 1999.96 52w high - all four alternates fail on their own terms); HOLD, no NO-TRADE run. Armed-without-a-tick mandates a trail-raise where one is legal, and tonight it is: EMA50 ticked 1734.44 -> 1735.59., taken on the same discipline as last night's 65-cent raise - a mandatory raise is taken whenever legal, not only when large. Model chandelier 1631.26 is far looser and does not apply. Structure: +1.62% above the new line, effectively back on EMA20 1764.08 (closed 32c under it), far above EMA100/200 1649.44/1473.18, Trend Bullish, Pillar_Consensus Consolidation_Bullish; only EMA5/EMA10 (1776.72/1776.87) overhead by 0.74%. The -> conviction collapse logged as a standing objection has reversed to 49 - objection retired for now, not resolved. Marks - / -3.46% on; risk to the new line. Not an add: the row prints HOLD at cv49 and would need a bullish-actionable print at raw conviction >=75 to reach the 65 floor after the -10 val_adj. · news |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 214.72 | HOLD | 214.72 | 206.32 | 217.79 (+1.4%) | 224.95 (+4.8%) | 230.42 (+7.3%) | Holding all into Wednesday's results and leaving the stop exactly where it is. Nvidia reports second-quarter numbers on 2026-08-26, three sessions away, and it is by far the largest position and the biggest scheduled event on this book. The company guided to about of revenue excluding all China datacentre sales, the Street is at and of earnings - roughly double a year ago - and Nvidia has beaten estimates in each of the last four quarters. Management says demand has gone parabolic and still points to $1T of Blackwell and Rubin revenue through 2027; at about 25 times forward earnings that is not a stretched valuation. Options imply a 6.75% move, a to range, and our stop at sits just below the bottom of that band - which is exactly where it should be going into a print. We hold and trail; we do not pre-trim into a catalyst. ADR-0012: armed (T12_Progress 93.19) with ZERO ticks - conviction is -12, the third consecutive single-step decline under the 20-pt bar -> cumulatively; the same measurement objection ASML carried, honoured here as the rule is written); Target_12Week 230.42 alive at +7.31% over the 219.01 band; no second code (RSI 51.0, VWAP_Distance +1.27%, 9.2% below the 236.54 52w high); no NO-TRADE run. Armed-without-a-tick mandates a raise WHERE ONE IS LEGAL and for a second session none is: the 2.0x-ATR chandelier prints 204.49 and EMA100 205.51, both BELOW the standing 206.32, and a trail never moves down. Stop HOLDS at 206.32 - recorded explicitly so the non-raise is not misread as drift. Catalyst-aware hold ACTIVE: trim only on a confirmed lower high or a decisive stop break. Structure: above EMA50/100/200 (210.54/205.51/198.12), below EMA5/10/20 (217.83/218.14/215.45) - first close under EMA20 in this sequence, worth watching but not a tick; Trend softened Bullish -> Neutral_Bullish_Context. 74.7% of capital. Marks - / -5.33%; risk to stop = 0.22% of book. L6 stands: no queue on this book may live into 08-26, and none exists. · news |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology | 237.04 | WATCH | 237.04 | 227.68 | 248.28 (+4.7%) | 274.49 (+15.8%) | 267.97 (+13.0%) | Watching, not buying. Marvell fails our quality screen, so it cannot be opened as a new position regardless of how it trades, and in any case the signal engine only rates it a watch. Results land 2026-08-27. ENGINE OBJECTION - systemic finding 5, now CONFIRMED HARMFUL (3rd session): for two sessions MRVL printed AVOID/NoSignal/cv0 with no entry, stop, target or rank while it was the strongest name on the board (+15.9% over two sessions, above every EMA, Trend Bullish); tonight the cascade finally emits a full WATCH cv61 row on FailedBreakdown_Up_20D with entry 237.04 / stop 227.68 / target 274.49 - AFTER the name closed -5.57%. The row was suppressed through the advance and surfaced on the reversal, i.e. exactly one session too late. Unbuyable regardless: Quality_Pass False (hard block on NEW entries), MoS -7.29 -> val_adj -10, adj 51 vs the 65 floor, and WATCH is not a bullish-actionable print. |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | 966.78 | WATCH | 966.78 | 940.19 | 998.68 (+3.3%) | 1073.12 (+11.0%) | 1078.41 (+11.5%) | Micron's buy signal from last night has already faded, so the decision not to chase it is settled rather than reconsidered. The name slipped less than a percent but the model's confidence in the setup dropped sharply, and it is now only a watch. The fundamental story is unchanged and still excellent - high-bandwidth memory sold out for the year, the stock up more than 200% in 2026 - but a failed-breakdown entry on a name that has already tripled is the exact pattern that has cost this book money three times out of three, and we want a pullback entry or a materially stronger signal before committing capital. ARITHMETIC: degraded BUY cv69 -> WATCH cv54 (-15) on a -0.77% close. Even if it were actionable: 54 - 7 (val_adj from MoS -1.35 x 5; NOT G2-suppressible, DCF 772.94 vs 966.78 = 1.26x, the cleanest anchor on the board after ASML) - 10 (USC-3 n>=5 hardening on FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy, printed bias -2, read at the floor on this book's 3/3 stop-first record) = adj 37, 28 under the floor. Last night it was adj 52; the rejection is now over-determined. RE-ARM unchanged: MU needs raw conviction >= 82 on a bullish-actionable print, OR a PullbackBuy_VWAP confirmation. The stale 07-05 overlay's MU override is noted and is not a licence -, nothing to hold, and an overlay cannot open a conviction floor. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
29 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.226 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
53 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.