US Semiconductors — End-of-Day Verdict
0 ACQUIRE, 0 ANTICIPATE, 2 DISPOSE | Rates-driven sector rout on 08-18 (SOX ~-3.7%, 30y Treasury yield highest since 2007): every board name fell (COHR -12.8%, LITE -9.9%, SNDK -9.0%, ASX -8.8%, MU -7.0%, ASML -4.26%, TSM -4.08%, NVDA -2.34%) and BUY-ANTICIPATE prints went from 3 to ZERO | DISPOSE 1 ASML SELL 30% (5 of) @1802.98 =, retaining 13 - ADR-0012 armed (T12_Progress 91.22) + tick (b) FIRED, conviction, exactly the 20-pt threshold; no other tick (12wk 1976.51 = +9.62% alive, no 2nd code, no repeat NO TRADE) so profit_take_1 = 30%. The amplify to 50% is blocked by G3 NOT G2: MoS -4.92 <= -3 would bump the tier, but the 12wk is solidly positive on a bullish signal above EMA50/100/200 - and unlike TSM the DCF anchor here IS reliable (836.55 vs 1802.98 = 2.16x, cleanest on the board with NVDA 1.34x), so calling it a G2 block would contradict the 08-17 entry. Base trim justified on geometry: 1802.98 is only 1.50% above the 1776.26 stop. Stop STANDS (chandelier 1666.43 and model 1666.43 both below it, 3rd session the mandatory armed raise is unavailable). Realized - | DISPOSE 2 TSM SELL 30% (7 of) @413.41 =, retaining 17 - armed + tick (c) 3rd consecutive session and materially worse: Target_12Week moved from +0.55% ABOVE the close on 08-17 (433.32) to -1.68% BELOW it tonight (406.45 vs 413.41), through the price not merely inside the 421.68 dead band. FRESH origination not a re-issue (the 08-17 card filled this morning). G2 suppresses the MoS -14.46 amplify for a 3rd session (DCF 45.97 vs 413.41 = 8.99x; same class defect on TSLA 9.83x, INTC 7.15x, ARM 5.51x). L2 is fourteen cents away - 413.41 is +0.034% above the 413.27 trail, negative-12wk half met, decisive-close-below half not; if it breaks tomorrow the stop takes the remaining 17. Realized - | FALSE-ARM DEFECT now firing on 100% of held names, 33rd session: ASML armed at T12_Progress 91.22 while -1.31% BELOW cost (Gain_ATR -0.35), TSM at 101.71 while -5.62% below (Gain_ATR -2.01). Both 'profit-takes' realize losses. Advisory (a) unshipped | ACQUIRE NO ACTION - 6th consecutive session, and the blocker CHANGED CHARACTER. The prior five were unheld names failing the quality gate. Tonight the sole bullish-actionable row was NVDA BUY-ADD cv71 Buy_Rank 1 PullbackBuy_VWAP - a HELD name (gate inapplicable), on the exact family L1 favours, with the cleanest DCF anchor on the board - and it still died on arithmetic: val_adj -10 (MoS -2.56) -> adj 61, four points under the 65 floor. Note B/G2 does not rescue it (T12 246.90 vs DCF 163.98 = 1.51x is not a wide margin). Would have been QUEUED not bought anyway (Entry_Distance_ATR -1.43, limit 211.85 = -3.6%). RE-ARM: raw cv >= 75 clears the floor | ANTICIPATE none - ZERO BUY-ANTICIPATE prints anywhere on the board (3 last night); MU/LITE/SNDK all 1-of-3 and all faded to WATCH | THE 08-17 ENTRY'S HEADLINE CALL RESOLVED IN OUR FAVOUR: it named MU 'the cleanest acquire since inception if it re-prints'. MU did NOT re-print and fell -7.0% (1011.75 -> 940.76). ASX, declined on quality-gate grounds at 39.91, fell -8.8%. LITE, the highest-conviction name on the board at cv83, fell -9.9%. Three declines, three avoided drawdowns averaging -8.6% in ONE session - USC-3/USC-4/L6 all paid | NVDA HOLD 253 - not armed (T12_Progress 89.00 < 90, Gain_ATR -1.28) so ADR-0012 does not apply; the two-consecutive-NO-TRADE state flagged on 08-17 resolved UPWARD, vindicating the USC-5/US-3 'still-constructive fade -> trail' call; 6.64% above stop, above EMA200, 12wk +12.4% alive; marks -/-3.11%; FQ2 FY27 08-26 is SIX sessions out so the <=5-session catalyst window opens at the NEXT EOD | QUEUE HYGIENE: five stale GTC ledger lines closed - the Step-7 expiry reconcile had never been applied to older lines, so the counterfactual grader was under-counting non-fills for up to a month | SCORECARD: graded 26/107, calib_1w -0.207 (11th consecutive negative -> f=0.30 mandatory, L5); actionable cells FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy -5 at n=5 and NoTrade|sell -6 at n=10; but the loudest line is the counterfactual - optional_trim n=13, median withheld -3.89% 1wk / -15.33% 4wk, verdict 'cost', up from n=4/-0.9% at the 07-18 review. This book's characteristic error is UNDER-trimming, which is the direct warrant for firing both trims as real DISPOSE cards rather than prose (USC-6/L3) | Valuation fresh (FetchedAt 08-17 22:26) but 20/20 GROWTH_PRICED_IN for a 5th run - zero cross-sectional discrimination, val_adj can only subtract | Book, 10.0%; the two trims free against of buys -; -> (91.2%)
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 2 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| ASML | ASML Holding NV | 1802.98 | SELL 30% | 1802.98 | 1776.26 | 1762.02 (-2.3%) | 1939.53 (+7.6%) | 1976.51 (+9.6%) | Taking a third of ASML off at because the market's conviction in the setup collapsed in a single session and the position is now sitting almost exactly on its stop. The business news is good - memory makers moving to HBM4/DDR5/3D DRAM pull more EUV lithography through ASML, the 2026 outlook was raised, and the interim dividend went up 17% - but the stock fell 4.3% on 2026-08-18 in a market-wide chip sell-off driven by the 30-year Treasury yield hitting its highest level since 2007, and our own signal score dropped from with it. At the shares are just 1.5% above our exit line, so a third off now converts a fragile position into a smaller one we can hold with conviction rather than one the stop is about to decide for us. We keep exposed to the twelve-week view, which is still a healthy +9.6%. || OPERATIONAL: ADR-0012 profit-take, ARMED (PROFIT_ARMED, T12_Progress 91.22%) and FIRED on tick (b) - conviction, a drop of exactly 20 pts, the threshold. One tick = profit_take_1 = 30% (5 of). Ticks (a)/(c)/(d) did NOT fire: no second Exit_Warning code, 12wk 1976.51 vs the 1.02x dead band 1839.04 is alive, no repeated NO TRADE. G1 does not soften anything here (signal is FailedBreakdown_Up_20D cv61, not a fresh Breakout/MomentumContinuation cv>=80) and tick (b) fires regardless of G1 in any case. VALUATION AMPLIFY BLOCKED BY G3 (forward-view gate): MoS_FV -4.92 <= -3 would ordinarily bump %, but Target_12Week 1976.51 is solidly positive (+9.62%) against a bullish-family signal with price above EMA50/EMA100/EMA200 - trimming half here would be cutting a winner on a valuation read. Amplify suppressed, portion stays 30%. Note the DCF anchor IS reliable on this name (836.55 vs 1802.98 = 2.16x, the cleanest read on the board alongside NVDA), so this is a G3 block, not a G2 block - consistent with the 2026-08-17 entry's assessment. KNOWN DEFECT: PROFIT_ARMED fired on a position that is -1.31% BELOW cost (Gain_ATR -0.35) - the T12-progress arm leg is not gated on a positive gain (learnings advisory (a), unshipped, 33rd consecutive session). Realized on vs the 1826.98 basis: -, so this is a de-risk, not a profit-take, whatever the flag says. STOP 1776.26 STANDS on the retained - the mandatory armed trail-raise is unavailable for a 3rd session because the 2.0xATR chandelier (1666.43) and the model Stop_Price (1666.43) both sit below it, and a trail never moves down. 1wk uses f=0.30 (calib_1w -0.207, degenerate - L5), mirrored to the model stop leg. News classified neutral / NON-OVERRIDING: the fundamental tape is supportive but weeks old and already absorbed; the 08-18 move was rates-driven multiple compression across the whole complex, not an ASML event. · news |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing | 413.41 | SELL 30% | 413.41 | 413.27 | 406.07 (-1.8%) | 437.87 (+5.9%) | 406.45 (-1.7%) | Trimming another 30% of TSMC at because our twelve-week projection has now gone outright NEGATIVE on the stock - 406.45 against a 413.41 close - and the shares are sitting fourteen cents above the level at which we would sell anyway. TSMC's business could hardly be better: July revenue up 44.7% to NT6bn, Arizona sales up 145% year over year, a Sony image-sensor joint venture, and a dividend going ex on 16 September. But the stock fell over 4% on 2026-08-18 in a broad chip sell-off, and we do not hold names our own model expects to be lower in three months. This follows the 50% cut that filled this morning at; we keep as a defined core and let the stop decide the rest. || OPERATIONAL: ADR-0012 profit-take, ARMED (PROFIT_ARMED, T12_Progress 101.71%) and FIRED on tick (c) for a THIRD consecutive session - and materially worse than the prior two: Target_12Week has gone from +0.55% above the close (08-17) to -1.68% BELOW it, well inside the 1.02x dead band of 421.68. Tick (b) did not re-fire (cv. One tick = profit_take_1 = 30% (7 of). This is NOT a re-issue of the 08-17 card - that one filled this morning (txn ussemicon-20260819-0001, @417.00; this is a fresh fire on newly deteriorated conditions (close -4.08% in one session, 12wk flipped negative). G2 SUPPRESSES the MoS -14.46 amplify for a 3rd session: DCF_per_share 45.97 vs a 413.41 price is an 8.99x scale mismatch (the same class defect prints tonight on TSLA 9.8x, INTC 7.2x, ARM 5.5x) - MoS read directionally only, val_adj 0, no bump. 'Never 100% from a profit-take alone' also stands. L2 is one tick away, not yet met: 413.41 is +0.034% above the 413.27 trail - a negative 12wk is in place but there is no decisive close below stop yet. STOP 413.27 STANDS on the retained; both the model Stop_Price (388.95) and the 2.0xATR chandelier (388.95) sit below it and a trail never moves down. If it breaks tomorrow the stop takes the remaining 17. KNOWN DEFECT (advisory (a)): armed at T12_Progress 101.71% while -5.62% below cost with Gain_ATR -2.01 - the arm leg measures progress toward a 12wk target that has fallen through the price. Realized on vs the 438.02 basis: -. SYSTEMIC: Target_12Week (406.45) prints BELOW Close (413.41) on a bullish-family row - the KLAC/LMT pattern; sanity check wanted in core/predictions.py. 1wk uses f=0.30 (L5). News neutral / non-overriding per USC-5 - this book has already paid once for treating a TSMC record beat as licence to hold an oversized technical laggard. Position size after: =, 0.72% of book. · news |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 219.74 | HOLD | 211.85 | 206.05 | n/a | 222.70 (+5.1%) | 246.90 (+16.5%) | Holding all 253 Nvidia shares and NOT adding, even though the signal turned constructive again. After two sessions of no signal at all, Nvidia printed a buy-the-pullback setup on 2026-08-18 and ranked first on the board - but the entry it wants is, some 3.6% below the close, and after the valuation haircut the setup scores 61 against our 65 minimum. Four points short is not a trade. The stock fell about 2.2% with the whole chip complex as thirty-year Treasury yields hit their highest since 2007 and investors questioned whether AI capital spending can earn its return; the business itself is not in question. We stay fully held with the stop at and wait for the 26 August results. || OPERATIONAL: BUY - ADD cv71, Buy_Rank 1, PullbackBuy_VWAP - the exact family L1 says to favour - but val_adj -10 (MoS_FV -2.56 -> clamp(round(-2.56x5), -10, 0)) takes adj to 61, below the 65 floor. The -10 haircut is NOT suppressed here: NVDA's DCF anchor is the cleanest on the board (163.98 vs 219.74 = 1.34x; Target_12Week 246.90 vs DCF 163.98 = 1.51x is not a wide margin), so note B / G2 does not apply. scorecard_bias 0 (PullbackBuy_VWAP|buy is n=1, report-only). Independently it would have been QUEUED not bought: Entry_Distance_ATR -1.43 means price sits 1.43 ATR above the limit. RE-ARM TRIGGER: with val_adj -10 and bias 0 standing, NVDA needs raw conviction >= 75 on a bullish-actionable print to clear the floor - that is the precise bar to watch at the next EOD. NOT a sell candidate: not armed (Exit_Warning blank, T12_Progress 89.00 < 90, Gain_ATR -1.28), so ADR-0012 does not apply; 219.74 is 6.64% above the 206.05 stop, above EMA200 (197.46), and the 12wk 246.90 = +12.4% is alive. Marks - / -3.11%; risk to stop = 0.35% of book. Stop 206.05 STANDS (model Stop_Price 205.43 is looser). CATALYST: FQ2 FY27 prints 2026-08-26 - SIX sessions out, so the <=5-session catalyst-aware-hold window opens at the NEXT EOD; horizon band +/-6.75%, stance hold-through, with an add-after-print read-through to MU/KLAC. Any future queue must expire before that date or be withdrawn into it (L6). · news |
| MU | Micron Technology | 940.76 | WATCH | 940.76 | 908.16 | n/a | 1071.16 (+13.9%) | 1035.23 (+10.0%) | No action on Micron. The 2026-08-17 note called Micron 'the name to watch - this book's cleanest acquire since inception if it prints a second anticipation signal'. It did not: the setup faded to a passive WATCH and the shares fell 7.0% from to in the chip sell-off. Waiting cost us nothing and saved a 7% entry. || OPERATIONAL: anticipate slot NOT eligible - 1-of-3 (BUY -> BUY-ANTICIPATE -> WATCH), needs >=2-of-3. Not bullish-actionable so it never reached the ACQUIRE pool either. Still the only Quality_Pass True unheld candidate on the board; val_adj -7 (MoS -1.35) -> adj 54 even if it had printed. This is the third consecutive session in which the no-chase discipline (USC-4/L6) has been vindicated by the tape. Re-arm: a BUY or BUY-ANTICIPATE print at cv >= 72 clears the 65 floor after the -7 haircut. |
| LITE | Lumentum Holdings | 873.31 | WATCH | 873.31 | 828.88 | n/a | 1051.03 (+20.4%) | 1026.33 (+17.5%) | No action on Lumentum. It was the highest-conviction name on the board last night at 83 and fell 9.9% to today, faded to a passive WATCH, and remains blocked by the quality screen. The optics story is real - Q4 revenue 01bn, +109% year over year, the stock still up ~108% for the year - but it is the most expensive name we track against its own fair value and we have no signal to act on. || OPERATIONAL: Quality_Pass False (hard gate on a new entry), MoS_FV -37.68 (worst on the board) -> val_adj -10 -> adj 41. Anticipate slot 1-of-3. Overlay carries a stale (2026-07-05) 'optics dip-buy supported' line for AAOI/COHR/LITE - noted, not acted on: an overlay override cannot open a hard quality gate. |
| ASX | ASE Technology Holding | 36.41 | WATCH | 36.41 | 35.31 | n/a | 40.82 (+12.1%) | 37.20 (+2.2%) | No action on ASE Technology - it fell 8.8% to and dropped out of the buy list entirely, one session after we declined it on quality-screen grounds at. Declining it saved 8.8%. || OPERATIONAL: was BUY cv69 Buy_Rank 1 on 08-17, now WATCH cv63 - not bullish-actionable. Quality_Pass False, MoS -10.48 -> val_adj -10, FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy bias -5 ACTIONABLE at n=5 (USC-3 reads this cell at the -10 floor) -> adj 43. This book's own realised ASX FailedBreakdown buy on 07-10 lost -8.65%. |
Outcome & track record