US Semiconductors — End-of-Day Verdict
0 ACQUIRE, 0 ANTICIPATE, 2 DISPOSE | Second consecutive rout day and this one broke BOTH stops; the board printed ZERO bullish-actionable rows in 20 names - no STRONG BUY, no BUY, no BUY-ADD, no BUY-ANTICIPATE - the first all-zero buy pool since inception (AAOI -7.0%, LRCX -6.3%, COHR -6.2%, LITE -5.2%, GLW -4.7%, AVGO -4.6%, INTC -4.0%, KLAC -3.9%, AMD -3.7%, SNDK -3.5%) | DISPOSE 1 ASML SELL 30% (4 of) @1751.73 =, retaining 9 - ORIGINATION IS THE STOP BREAK, NOT ADR-0012, and that is the reverse of last night: PROFIT_ARMED prints (T12_Progress 93.74) but not one tick fires (conviction = -7 vs the 20-pt bar; 12wk 1868.65 alive at +6.68% vs the 1.02x band 1786.76; no second code; no repeated NO TRADE), and armed-without-a-tick is a trail-raise not a trim. What originates it is CLAUDE.md 9's own decisive-stop-break clause: 1751.73 is -1.38% THROUGH the 1776.26 trail on a settled close, second down session, now below both EMA10 1786.33 and EMA20 1765.56 after sitting above both on 08-18, conviction ->54. Last night named the geometry exactly ('1.50% above the stop; a single further rout day and the stop decides the size for us') and that day came. NOT a full exit because structure holds above EMA50 1733.79/EMA100/EMA200, Trend still Bullish, Consolidation_Bullish, 12wk +6.68%, and the fundamental tape is supportive (Q2 EUR 9.33B, 2026 guide lifted to 43-45B from 36-40B, +17% interim dividend) with the AMSTERDAM LINE CLOSING +0.79% on 08-19 while the US ADR fell -2.8% - much of tonight's move is FX/ADR-premium unwind, not a business break. MoS -4.92 would bump but G3 blocks it for a 2nd session (G3 NOT G2 - the DCF anchor is the cleanest on the board at 2.09x). Realized - | DISPOSE 2 TSM SELL 50% (8 of) @412.09 =, retaining 9 - armed + tick (c) for a 4th session and now through the price: Target_12Week has walked 433.32 -> 406.45 -> 397.99, i.e. -3.42% BELOW the close vs a dead band of 420.33. Tick (b) missed by ONE POINT = -19 vs >=20) - stated, not counted. The escalation to profit_take_2 rests on the Tier-2 EMA10_BREAK leg: two consecutive closes -1.73%/-1.79% below EMA10 419.34, derived BY HAND because the engine emits only one Exit_Warning code and PROFIT_ARMED wins (systemic finding 2). L2 NOW FULLY MET (close below trail AND negative 12wk) after being fourteen cents away last night. The 08-18 pre-commitment said a break takes the remaining 17 - honoured in direction, NOT in full size, because -0.29% is not the DECISIVE break L2/Contrast contemplate and price holds above EMA100 403.69/EMA200 371.73 inside the Est band 403.85-433.26; inventing a 100% trigger on a 29-bp break would be as wrong as ignoring it. HARD LINE PRE-STATED: a close below 403.85 takes the balance in full. G2 suppresses the MoS -14.46 amplify a 4th session (DCF 45.97 vs 412.09 = 8.96x; same class on TSLA 10.25x, INTC 6.87x, ARM 5.43x). Realized - | NVDA HOLD 253 and the MANDATORY ARMED TRAIL-RAISE IS FINALLY LEGAL - newly armed (T12_Progress 90.39 up through 90 from 89.00) with ZERO ticks (conv = -10; 12wk 240.68 alive at +10.6%; no second code; the 08-19 BUY-ADD broke any NO-TRADE run), so stop RAISED 206.05 -> 206.32 (2.0x-ATR chandelier). 27 cents - taken because a mandatory raise gets taken whenever legal, not only when large. CATALYST WINDOW NOW OPEN: FQ2 FY27 08-26 is five sessions out, band +/-6.75%, the largest single-event exposure in the window on this book's largest holding -> hold and trail through the print, never pre-trim. 5.44% above the new stop, above EMA20/50/100/200, only EMA10 219.35 overhead by 0.82%; marks -/-4.07%; risk to stop = 0.29% of book | ACQUIRE NO ACTION - 7th consecutive session, and tonight it needs no arithmetic at all: the buy pool is EMPTY before valuation, before the scorecard, before the gate. Near-misses, none within 11 pts of the floor even pre-haircut: MU WATCH cv54 -> adj 47 (gate PASSES, blocker is purely conviction), LITE WATCH cv54 -> adj 44 (gate F, MoS -37.68), SNDK WATCH cv49 -> adj 45 (gate F, MSCI World's largest August add on 08-31), LRCX WATCH cv49 -> adj 39. Last night's re-arm (NVDA raw cv >= 75) is unmet and further away - it printed HOLD cv61 | ANTICIPATE none - ZERO BUY-ANTICIPATE prints for a 2nd session; MU/LITE/SNDK all 0-of-3 | MRVL IS THE ONE GENUINE RELATIVE-STRENGTH NAME AND THE ENGINE WILL NOT LOOK AT IT: +9.83% (216.00 -> 237.27) on 43.6M shares = 1.71x prior, above EVERY EMA with Trend=Bullish, and it prints AVOID/NoSignal/cv0 'do not open (long-only)'. Gate F + MoS -7.29 means it was unbuyable regardless so nothing was lost, but the cascade SUPPRESSED the row rather than surfacing a WATCH - new systemic finding 5. Q2 FY27 08-27 | FALSE-ARM DEFECT firing on 100% of held names a 2nd session, 34th overall, and ALL THREE ARE UNDERWATER: ASML armed at 93.74 while -4.12% below cost (Gain_ATR -1.15), NVDA at 90.39 while -4.07% (-1.64), TSM at 103.54 while -5.92% (-2.14). Not one has a profit to take; tonight's two 'profit-takes' realize -and -. The mechanism inverts exactly where it matters: T12_Progress rises because the TARGET is collapsing toward the price, not because price advances toward the target. Advisory (a) unshipped | SCORECARD: graded 26/113, calib_1w -0.548 - a 12th consecutive negative AND a material degradation from -0.207 last night, so f=0.30 stays mandatory (L5) and the metric is trending away from usability. Actionable cells FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy -2 at n=5 (softened from -5; USC-3 still says read it at the -10 floor on this book's 3/3 stop-first record) and NoTrade|sell -6 at n=10. Counterfactuals n=20 with optional_trim at n=13, median withheld -5.14% 1wk / -15.33% 4wk, verdict 'cost' - WORSE at 1wk than last night's -3.89%, and the direct empirical warrant for taking TSM at the 50% tier rather than defaulting to the 30% base (USC-6/L3) | Valuation fresh (FetchedAt 08-17 22:26) but 20/20 GROWTH_PRICED_IN for a 6th run - zero cross-sectional discrimination; 10/20 pass quality, and it fails every unheld name that printed a bullish setup this week | Overlay STALE 45 days (WEEK 2026-07-05); the AAOI/COHR/LITE 'optics dip-buy' line noted and NOT acted on - an overlay override cannot open a hard quality gate, and all three fell again | Horizon from parent us (no ussemicon_horizon.json): opex + flash PMI 08-21, NVDA FQ2 08-26 with MU/KLAC read-through, Jackson Hole 08-27-29, MSCI review 08-31 | Queue hygiene: nothing open, both cards are market not GTC; provenance clean - both action prices are the anchor's own Entry_Price | Book, 8.67%; the two trims free against of buys - trivially; -> (92.4%) and falls to 7.6%, the lowest since inception, the correct posture into a two-day rout with an empty buy pool and a +/-6.75% single-name event five sessions out
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 2 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML | ASML Holding NV | 1751.73 | SELL 30% | 1751.73 | 1733.79 | 1791.15 (+2.3%) | 1883.14 (+7.5%) | 1868.65 (+6.7%) | ASML closed 1.38% through its 1,776.26 trailing stop on the second day of a rates-driven semiconductor selloff, so we are taking 30% off and keeping the core. The business case is unchanged and arguably stronger - Q2 sales of EUR 9.33B, the 2026 revenue guide lifted to EUR 43-45B from 36-40B, and the Amsterdam-listed line actually closed higher on the day while the US listing fell, which says much of tonight's move is currency and ADR premium rather than deteriorating demand. But a settled close through a risk line is a risk line doing its job, and the position is 4.1% underwater. We keep because the deeper structure held: price is still above its 50-, 100- and 200-day averages, the trend reads bullish and the 12-week view is +6.7%. ORIGINATION: decisive stop break (CLAUDE.md 9), NOT ADR-0012 - PROFIT_ARMED prints but zero ticks fire (conviction -7 vs the 20-pt bar, 12wk alive at +6.68% vs the 1.02x band of 1786.76, no second code, no repeated NO TRADE). Valuation amplify (MoS -4.92 would bump blocked by G3, not G2 - the DCF anchor is the cleanest on the board at 2.09x. Stop re-based 1776.26 -> 1733.79 (EMA50) on the retained 9 after the size cut; the 1776.26 watermark was hit, not eroded, and leaving it would fire the whole balance at a level price is already through. Model chandelier 1620.32 is looser. Retained risk to the new line. Realized on vs the 1826.98 basis: -. · news |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing C | 412.09 | SELL 50% | 412.09 | 403.69 | 419.37 (+1.8%) | 436.35 (+5.9%) | 397.99 (-3.4%) | We are halving TSM because the model's own 12-week view has now walked below the share price - 397.99 against a 412.09 close, down from 433.32 two sessions ago - and the stock closed under its trailing stop for the first time in the sequence. The company itself is performing: Q2 revenue rose 33.7% to, full-year growth is guided above 40% and capex was raised to -64B. But there is a live debate over China tool restrictions and whether AI infrastructure spending earns its return, and the chart has agreed with the bears for four straight sessions - price is below its 10-, 20- and 50-day averages and conviction has fallen from. The position is 5.9% underwater; we keep only because the 100- and 200-day lines still hold beneath. ADR-0012 armed (T12_Progress 103.54) + tick (c) firing for a 4th session, now -3.42% through the 1.02x dead band of 420.33. Tick (b) missed by ONE point = -19 vs >=20) - stated, not counted. Escalation to profit_take_2 (50%) rests on the Tier-2 EMA10_BREAK leg: two consecutive closes 1.73%/1.79% below EMA10 419.34. The engine does not print that code (Exit_Warning is single-valued and PROFIT_ARMED wins - systemic finding 2), so it is derived by hand from the EMA columns. Corroborating: 413.27 trail breached -0.29%, Trend downgraded to Neutral_Bullish_Context. L2 now fully met (close below trail AND negative 12wk). The 08-18 pre-commitment said a break takes the remaining 17 - honoured in direction, not in full size, because a -0.29% close-through is not the DECISIVE break L2/Contrast contemplate and price holds above EMA100 403.69 / EMA200 371.73 inside the Est band 403.85-433.26. HARD LINE STATED IN ADVANCE: a close below 403.85 takes the remaining 9 in full at the next open. G2 suppresses the MoS -14.46 amplify for a 4th session - DCF 45.97 vs 412.09 is an 8.96x broken anchor. Stop re-based 413.27 -> 403.69 (EMA100); model 387.83 is looser; retained risk. Realized on vs the 438.02 basis: -. USC-6/L3 and the optional_trim counterfactual (n=13, median withheld -5.14% 1wk / -15.33% 4wk, verdict cost) are the empirical warrant for the 50% tier over the 30% base. · news |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 217.56 | HOLD | 217.56 | 206.32 | 220.93 (+1.5%) | 228.80 (+5.2%) | 240.68 (+10.6%) | Holding all into next week's earnings and raising the stop. Nvidia fell with the whole chip complex on rising bond yields and renewed doubt about whether AI infrastructure spending will earn its return - but the selling is being driven by valuation and rates, not by any deterioration in the business, and the stock still sits above its 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day averages with a 12-week view 10.6% above today's price. Q2 results land 2026-08-26, five sessions away and the single biggest scheduled event on this book; the discipline into a print like that is to hold and trail, never to pre-trim. ADR-0012: newly ARMED (T12_Progress 90.39, up through the 90 threshold from 89.00) with ZERO ticks firing - conviction is -10 vs the 20-pt bar; 12wk 240.68 vs the 1.02x band of 221.91 is alive; no second code; the 08-19 BUY-ADD broke any NO-TRADE run. Armed-without-a-tick = MANDATORY TRAIL-RAISE, and unlike the last three sessions on ASML it is legal: 2.0x-ATR chandelier 206.32 > standing 206.05. STOP RAISED 206.05 -> 206.32. Catalyst-aware hold now ACTIVE (FQ2 FY27 08-26, horizon band +/-6.75%): trim only on a confirmed lower high or a decisive stop break. 5.44% above the new stop; only EMA10 219.35 overhead by 0.82%. Marks - / -4.07%; risk to stop = 0.29% of book. Not a buy either: val_adj -10 on MoS -2.56 takes cv61 to adj 51, and the row prints HOLD not BUY-ADD, so the pool is empty before the floor applies. Re-arm for an ADD remains raw conviction >= 75 on a bullish-actionable print - unmet and further away than last night. Any queue on this book must expire before 08-26 or be withdrawn into it (L6). · news |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology | 237.27 | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | 246.94 | Marvell was the one stock on this board that went up hard - +9.8% on nearly double its normal volume, on a day when semiconductor names fell - and we are not buying it. Two reasons: the model refuses to name a setup at all, and the company fails our quality screen on cash-flow and balance-sheet strength, which blocks any new position outright. It goes on the watchlist ahead of its 2026-08-27 results rather than into the book. Logged because the ENGINE BEHAVIOUR is the finding (systemic finding 5): MRVL prints AVOID/NoSignal/cv0 with Action_Rationale 'do not open (long-only)' while Trend reads Bullish and price sits above every EMA (EMA10 220.38 through EMA200 162.65) on 43.6M shares = 1.71x the prior session. The cascade suppressed the row entirely instead of surfacing a WATCH with a re-arm trigger. Quality_Pass False + MoS -7.29 means it was unbuyable tonight regardless, so nothing was lost - but the suppression would hide a genuine setup on a night when one existed. No action. |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | 937.10 | WATCH | 937.10 | 906.54 | n/a | 1059.35 (+13.0%) | 1020.73 (+8.9%) | Micron holds up better than the rest of the board (-0.4% against a sector down 4-7%) but the setup has faded to a passive watch rather than a buy trigger, and we need a materially higher-conviction print before committing cash. No action. Conviction, val_adj -7 (MoS -1.35 x 5) -> adj 47, eighteen points under the 65 floor. Now 0-of-3 on BUY-ANTICIPATE prints (was 1-of-3), so the anticipate slot is not eligible either. Quality gate PASSES here - the blocker is purely conviction. Carries an ecosystem read-through from the NVDA print on 08-26, so any re-arm before that date must respect L6. |
| LITE | Lumentum Holdings | 827.60 | WATCH | 827.60 | 784.77 | n/a | 998.90 (+20.7%) | 923.88 (+11.6%) | Lumentum fell another 5.2% and has now given back 15% in two sessions from the point where it was the highest-conviction name on this board. It fails our quality screen outright, which blocks any new position regardless of the chart, and the setup has faded to a passive watch anyway. No action. Quality gate FAILED (hard block on new entries). Conviction 83 (08-18) ->; val_adj -10 (MoS -37.68, the worst on the board) -> adj 44. Declining this name on 08-18 avoided a -9.9% session and tonight a further -5.2%; USC-3/USC-4/L6 continue to pay. The overlay's stale 'AAOI/COHR/LITE optics dip-buy supported' line is noted and NOT acted on - an overlay override cannot open a hard quality gate. |
| SNDK | Sandisk Corporation | 1568.87 | WATCH | 1568.87 | 1488.06 | n/a | 1892.11 (+20.6%) | 1569.86 (+0.1%) | SanDisk is the largest addition to the MSCI World index at the 2026-08-31 review, which is a real forced-buying catalyst eight sessions out - but it fails our quality screen, which blocks new positions outright, and the chart has faded to a passive watch after a 3.5% decline. No action; it stays on the watchlist for a post-review re-look. Quality gate FAILED (hard block). Conviction 76 (08-18 BUY-ANTICIPATE) ->; val_adj -4 (MoS -0.76, the least-negative on the board) -> adj 45, twenty points under the floor. 0-of-3 on anticipate prints so the anticipate slot is not eligible. The index-inclusion catalyst is advisory only and cannot open the gate. |
Outcome & track record