Sector ETFs — End-of-Day Verdict
NO ACTION -- 0 ACQUIRE, 0 DISPOSE. Four names printed bullish and three cleared the 65 conviction floor, and every one fails the same test: the model's own 4-week estimate does not cover the distance to its own stop. DIA (adj 72, Buy_Rank 1) forecasts a LOSS at both 1wk and 4wk against a 0.97% stop placed 0.74 ATR away at the exact session low. XLV (adj 66) prints all three tenors below its entry and mislabels a de-facto market order as a 'Buy Limit'. XLF (adj 66, 4th consecutive decline) has the best geometry in the book -- a real 0.93%-below-close pullback limit with a 1.17 ATR stop -- and still only offers +0.43% at 4 weeks against a 1.45% stop, with an inverted 12-week. SKYY (conv 86, the book's highest) is anticipate-slot ineligible at 1-of-3 required prints and risks 7.58% against a negative 4-week forecast. The day's real event is the reconcile: yesterday's IBB acquire was STOPPED OUT on its execution session -- opened 189.14, low 184.78 through the 185.75 stop, closed 186.41 -- by precisely the risk its own card named, the 10-year yield jumping to 4.73% (highest since Jan 2025) on Brent, which sold every long-duration asset (XBI -2.94%, IBB -1.87%, GLD -1.49%) while XLE rose 1.00%. The stop was properly sized at 1.21 ATR and worked; FailedBreakdown_Up_20D is now 6-of-10 stop-first here. The book is UNRECONCILED until that card is recorded TAKEN or SKIPPED (ADR-0019). Indices closed green on Amazon +15% while the semis gave back a 3.6-4.4% opening gap in full and printed NO TRADE cv0 throughout. undeployed, nothing queued into the 08-03 ISM / 08-05 LLY / 08-07 NFP ladder.
Total-Return Index 100.0 0.0% since inception Performance ›
Today's recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
NO ACTION — nothing cleared the bar.
Outcome & track record
How accurate the calls have been.
28 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.080 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
21 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.
Signal-type track record How each signal *type* has performed across ALL of this book's past decisions — not a per-stock note. 'bias' is the conviction nudge (+/-) applied to a fresh signal of that type; n = sample size, hit_1w = share that hit the 1-week target. Reliable cells earn a boost; weak ones a haircut.
How each signal type has performed across this book's past decisions (aggregate, not per-stock) — and the conviction nudge it earns.
- AnticipationUp_VCP (buy): 5 past trades, 0% hit the 1-week target → -10 conviction nudge.
- FailedBreakdown_Up_20D (buy): 10 past trades, 33% hit the 1-week target → -3 conviction nudge.
- PullbackBuy_VWAP (buy): 6 past trades, 50% hit the 1-week target → no conviction nudge.
Portfolio & signals
Every name we scanned, and where it stands.
| Ticker | Name | Close | Signal The chart pattern the engine detected on this name. Hover a signal for its one-line definition; click it for the full setup/trigger rules, the trade box it produces, and the newsletter issue that teaches the underlying concept. | Action | Conv | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SKYY | First Trust Cloud Computing ETF | 143.00 | AnticipationUp_VCP | BUY - ANTICIPATE | 86 | 143.87 (+0.6%) | 165.87 (+16.0%) | 140.08 (-2.0%) |
| DIA | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Avg | 524.32 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | BUY | 75 | 523.21 (-0.2%) | 537.95 (+2.6%) | 527.42 (+0.6%) |
| MAGS | Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF | 65.96 | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | AVOID | 75 | 66.05 (+0.1%) | n/a | 67.88 (+2.9%) |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary SPDR | 116.09 | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | AVOID | 70 | 116.19 (+0.1%) | n/a | 119.75 (+3.2%) |
| XLF | Financial Select Sector SPDR | 56.94 | PullbackBuy_VWAP | BUY | 66 | 56.82 (-0.2%) | 58.03 (+1.9%) | 55.72 (-2.1%) |
| XLV | Health Care Select Sector SPDR | 162.55 | PullbackBuy_VWAP | BUY | 66 | 161.73 (-0.5%) | 169.90 (+4.5%) | 157.10 (-3.4%) |
| SPY | SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 747.03 | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | AVOID | 64 | 747.58 (+0.1%) | n/a | 768.48 (+2.9%) |
| XLI | Industrial Select Sector SPDR | 179.84 | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | AVOID | 64 | 179.84 (+0.0%) | n/a | 179.26 (-0.3%) |
| UFO | Procure Space ETF (SpaceTech) | 43.79 | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | AVOID | 61 | 45.24 (+3.3%) | n/a | 50.77 (+15.9%) |
| DXYZ | Destiny Tech100 Inc | 22.89 | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | AVOID | 56 | 24.10 (+5.3%) | n/a | 34.88 (+52.4%) |
| IWM | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | 291.20 | FailedBreakout_Down_20D | AVOID | 54 | 291.19 (-0.0%) | n/a | 298.82 (+2.6%) |
| XLE | Energy Select Sector SPDR | 59.55 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | WATCH | 53 | 59.80 (+0.4%) | 62.12 (+4.3%) | 63.97 (+7.4%) |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares ETF | 371.54 | RallySell_BearTrend | AVOID | 52 | 372.78 (+0.3%) | 363.60 (-2.1%) | 367.38 (-1.1%) |
| IBB | iShares Biotech ETF | 186.41 | FailedBreakdown_Up_20D | WATCH | 49 | 186.82 (+0.2%) | 194.04 (+4.1%) | 196.00 (+5.1%) |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ (Nasdaq-100) | 687.99 | NoTrade | NO TRADE | 0 | 693.88 (+0.9%) | n/a | 713.59 (+3.7%) |
| SOXX | iShares Semiconductor ETF | 504.89 | NoTrade | NO TRADE | 0 | 504.89 (-0.0%) | n/a | 480.20 (-4.9%) |
| AIQ | Global X AI & Tech ETF | 58.89 | NoTrade | NO TRADE | 0 | 59.64 (+1.3%) | n/a | 62.73 (+6.5%) |
| SMH | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | 540.53 | NoTrade | NO TRADE | 0 | 550.19 (+1.8%) | n/a | 522.70 (-3.3%) |
| XBI | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | 147.01 | NoTrade | NO TRADE | 0 | 147.32 (+0.2%) | n/a | 155.18 (+5.6%) |
| XLK | Tech Select Sector SPDR | 175.35 | NoTrade | NO TRADE | 0 | 177.33 (+1.1%) | n/a | 188.43 (+7.5%) |
| XLP | Consumer Staples SPDR | 85.05 | NoTrade | NO TRADE | 0 | 85.31 (+0.3%) | n/a | 85.23 (+0.2%) |
| QTUM | Defiance Quantum ETF | 141.25 | NoTrade | NO TRADE | 0 | 143.04 (+1.3%) | n/a | 151.08 (+7.0%) |
Archive
Earlier end-of-day records.
- 1 August 2026 0 acquire / 0 dispose NO ACTION -- 0 ACQUIRE, 0 DISPOSE. Four names printed bullish and three cleared the 65 conviction floor, and every one fails the same test: the model's own 4-week estimate does not cover the distance to its own stop. DIA (adj 72, Buy_Rank 1) forecasts a LOSS at both 1wk and 4wk against a 0.97% stop placed 0.74 ATR away at the exact session low. XLV (adj 66) prints all three tenors below its entry and mislabels a de-facto market order as a 'Buy Limit'. XLF (adj 66, 4th consecutive decline) has the best geometry in the book -- a real 0.93%-below-close pullback limit with a 1.17 ATR stop -- and still only offers +0.43% at 4 weeks against a 1.45% stop, with an inverted 12-week. SKYY (conv 86, the book's highest) is anticipate-slot ineligible at 1-of-3 required prints and risks 7.58% against a negative 4-week forecast. The day's real event is the reconcile: yesterday's IBB acquire was STOPPED OUT on its execution session -- opened 189.14, low 184.78 through the 185.75 stop, closed 186.41 -- by precisely the risk its own card named, the 10-year yield jumping to 4.73% (highest since Jan 2025) on Brent, which sold every long-duration asset (XBI -2.94%, IBB -1.87%, GLD -1.49%) while XLE rose 1.00%. The stop was properly sized at 1.21 ATR and worked; FailedBreakdown_Up_20D is now 6-of-10 stop-first here. The book is UNRECONCILED until that card is recorded TAKEN or SKIPPED (ADR-0019). Indices closed green on Amazon +15% while the semis gave back a 3.6-4.4% opening gap in full and printed NO TRADE cv0 throughout. undeployed, nothing queued into the 08-03 ISM / 08-05 LLY / 08-07 NFP ladder.
- 30 July 2026 1 acquire / 0 dispose 1 ACQUIRE, 0 DISPOSE, 1 QUEUE WITHDRAWN. IBB -- BUY AT MARKET @,, stop, execute at the 2026-07-31 open. The FOMC sell-off was erased in one session by the largest single-day market-cap gain ever recorded (Microsoft +15.5%, Azure past $100bn), Nasdaq +2.78% and SMH +6.88% -- and every name that led prints NO TRADE cv0 while all three actionable BUYs were the day's laggards. IBB is taken because it is the first candidate in five weeks to pass the arithmetic gate the book has declined everything on: its own 4-week estimate (+2.98%) exceeds its stop distance (2.22%), its stop is properly sized at 1.21 ATR rather than the sub-ATR stops that make this family's 0.667 stop-first rate self-fulfilling, it closed BELOW its anchored VWAP so the at-market entry is not a chase, and it built over four sessions off WATCH rather than spiking. It is still the -3 FailedBreakdown family and it still underperformed a +1.66% tape, which is why it takes the standing unit and works the 4-week objective, not the 12-week. SKYY carries the book's highest adjusted conviction (75) and is declined anyway -- a 0.58 ATR stop on a 0.667-stop-first family, a 4-week estimate (+0.61%) smaller than the distance to that stop, and decisively a cloud ETF that managed +1.06% on the day Azure crossed $100bn. XLF fails the floor at 63 with all three forward tenors below its own entry. The 07-29 XLE limit is withdrawn unfilled -- the price never came within 1.9% of it and conviction went. -> 24.7%, preserved.
- 27 July 2026 1 acquire / 0 dispose 1 ACQUIRE (queued), 0 DISPOSE. XLF -- GTC buy limit @,, stop, expires 2026-07-30. The eight-session NO-ACTION streak ends on the one name that met the re-arm condition this book wrote down on 07-24: the signal reverted from the discounted FailedBreakdown family (0-for-9 at 4wk) back to PullbackBuy_VWAP, the entry reverted from an at-market chase to a live limit 1.56 ATR below the close, and the model's 1wk/4wk forwards came back above the entry -- while conviction rose. Four other names cleared the 65 floor (XLP 82, XLI 72, XBI 72, XLV 67) and all four are held out on entry geometry or forward-view expectancy, not on conviction. Est_12W remains -0.79% below entry, so it is sized and timed as a <=4-week tactical swing (SE-2), not a hold. -> 24.9% if filled, preserved.
- 24 July 2026 0 acquire / 0 dispose NO ACTION (0 acquire, 0 dispose). Three sector gauges cleared the 65 adj-conviction floor for the first time this week (XLF 72, XLI 72, XLV 67) -- but all three are the same un-actionable shape: at-market entries on the FailedBreakdown_Up_20D family (which has never hit a 4-week target on this book, 0/9) with flat-to-inverted model forwards and no valuation offset (blind ETF book). XLF's number rose only because its clean PullbackBuy limit degraded into an at-market chase; XLI is a fresh-flip head-fake; XLV re-prints the inverted forward already refused 07-23. XBI (adj 59) is sub-floor and a +4.5% buy-stop chase. Seventh straight session with no executable setup; fully preserved, 0%.
- 23 July 2026 0 acquire / 0 dispose NO ACTION (0 acquire, 0 dispose). XLV cleared the 65 adj-conviction floor for the first time this week (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D, adj 67) but is un-actionable -- an at-market entry whose own 1/4/12-week model estimates all sit below the entry price (a fully inverted forward), landing as a fresh single-session flip on the book's discounted FailedBreakdown family (the head-fake pattern, cf XLE. XLF held its clean PullbackBuy limit @55.59 but stayed 4 short of the floor; XBI's chase faded to WATCH42 as the prior EOD flagged. Sixth straight session without an executable setup. fully preserved, 0%.
- 22 July 2026 0 acquire / 0 dispose NO ACTION (0 acquire, 0 dispose). First BUY labels of the week printed -- XLF cv61 and XBI cv55, both PullbackBuy_VWAP -- but both below the 65 adj-conviction floor (XLF short by 4 with a dead/inverted 12wk; XBI short by 10 with a +1.1-ATR-above-close chase entry). Monday's XLE anticipate cv70 head-faked to WATCH cv43 in one session and MAGS lapsed to NO TRADE cv0, both as the prior EOD flagged. Fifth straight session without an executable setup. fully preserved.
- 21 July 2026 0 acquire / 0 dispose NO ACTION (0 acquire, 0 dispose). Not a single BUY print in the book -- Tuesday lifted conviction broadly but on WATCH and AVOID rows only, and the strongest print is GLD AVOID cv75, a short this long-only book cannot take. Monday's near-misses decayed (MAGS WATCH, IBB WATCH). The one bullish flip, XLE BUY - ANTICIPATE cv70, is ineligible on 1-of-3 arming and adj 60 after the -10 anticipation-family haircut. Fourth straight session without an executable setup. fully preserved.
- 20 July 2026 0 acquire / 0 dispose NO ACTION (0 acquire, 0 dispose). Monday erased Friday's biotech setup -- XBI collapsed cv69->39 (-2.2%) and IBB faded cv69->62 (-1.7%), voiding both queued starters; the rest of the book is NO TRADE cv0, WATCH-without-trigger, or bearish AVOID. The one floor-adjacent print, MAGS BUY cv67, dies a point short at adj 64 on the -3 FailedBreakdown haircut. Near-misses: MAGS adj 64, IBB adj 62, SKYY WATCH 61. fully preserved.
- 17 July 2026 2 acquire / 0 dispose ACQUIRE 2 (IBB QUEUED buy-limit @189.42 + XBI QUEUED buy-stop @155.23, pending 2026-07-20 open); DISPOSE none. Rotation narrowed into biotech -- the 07-16 below-floor PullbackBuy cluster strengthened, IBB and XBI both clearing the 65 floor on L1-favored prints and confirming sector news, while the prior XLF anticipation buy-stop never filled and collapsed to NO TRADE (withdrawn). Near-misses: XLP adj 63 (FailedBreakdown -3), XLV cv61, SPY/SKYY WATCH, GLD AVOID.
- 16 July 2026 1 acquire / 0 dispose ACQUIRE 1 (XLF QUEUED buy-stop @56.89, pending 07-17 open); DISPOSE none. Rotation cooled a second day -- SPY cv88 anticipation collapsed to NO TRADE, MAGS/QQQ/semis to NO TRADE, and a below-floor PullbackBuy cluster (XBI/DIA/IBB) re-appeared. Only XLF survives the floor; its 07-15 @56.99 buy-stop never triggered and simply reprices to @56.89 -- same self-limiting starter, flat/negative forward, backed by a constructive bank-earnings news read. Near-misses: XBI cv62, DIA cv61, IBB cv55 (PullbackBuy below floor), XLV/XLY WATCH, GLD AVOID.
- 15 July 2026 1 acquire / 0 dispose ACQUIRE 1 (XLF QUEUED buy-stop @56.99, pending 07-16 open). Consolidation day -- post-CPI rotation cooled, all three 07-14 leaders lost a step (XLF cv76->70, MAGS cv74->63, IBB->WATCH), both prior pullback queues unfilled and withdrawn (MAGS auto, XLF repriced to a live buy-STOP). Only XLF clears the floor and even it has a flat/negative forward -> self-limiting buy-stop starter. Near-misses: SPY cv88 (anticipate 1-of-3), MAGS adj63 (below floor), IBB/XBI/IWM/XLE WATCH, XLV cv54 (neg forward).
- 14 July 2026 3 acquire / 0 dispose ACQUIRE 3 (XLF QUEUED, MAGS QUEUED, IBB market starter -- pending 07-15 open). Post-CPI tape broadened risk-on and contradicted 07-13's defensive-into-CPI call: staples (XLP) collapsed to NO TRADE, leadership rotated into financials (XLF STRONG BUY BRank-1), mega-caps (MAGS, +14.5% 12wk) and biotech (IBB, at entry) -- all L1-favored PullbackBuy. No-chase queues the two extended names; IBB the lone at-entry market starter; all sized as starters. Near-misses: XLV adj66 (neg forward + BRank tie-loss), XLE adj60 (FailedBreakdown -5), SPY/DIA WATCH adj56.
- 13 July 2026 1 acquire / 0 dispose ACQUIRE 1 (XLP, starter, pending 07-14 open). Tape contradicts 07-10's bullish SPY call -- SPY cv100 -> NO TRADE, growth/semi complex rolled into AVOID, leadership rotated defensive into CPI. XLP (staples) is the lone floor-clearer (adj76, BRank-1, climbing, at entry). Starter size on gauge-book caution + CPI de-risk. Near-misses: XLF adj62 (RSI hot), DIA adj61 (past entry), MAGS adj55 (weakened).
- 10 July 2026 1 acquire / 0 dispose ACQUIRE 1 (SPY, QUEUED starter). Tape flipped decisively bullish; SPY prints L1-favored PullbackBuy cv100 rank-1, a real upgrade over yesterday's hold-out. No-chase -> below-market pullback QUEUE @744.11, starter size on the CPI de-risk bias. Near-misses: MAGS cv77 (single-print + extended), QQQ cv68->adj58 (-10 family), XLF WATCH cv61.
- 9 July 2026 0 acquire / 0 dispose NO ACTION. Flat book, no held risk, no buy clears cv>=65 floor. Near-miss (sub-floor): SPY BUY cv70->adj60, XBI ANTICIPATE cv59 (1/3+extended), SOXX AVOID cv64, GLD AVOID cv68, DIA WATCH cv62, XLF WATCH cv61.
- 8 July 2026 0 acquire / 0 dispose NO ACTION. Withdraw XLP + SKYY pending queues. Flat book, no buy clears cv>=65 floor. Near-miss (sub-floor WATCH): XLI cv63, SKYY cv62, IWM cv44.
- 7 July 2026 2 acquire / 0 dispose ACQUIRE: XLP 200@84.86 (market open), SKYY 85@139.01 QUEUED-limit. WITHDRAW SPY. Near-miss XLV. DISPOSE none.
- 6 July 2026 3 acquire / 0 dispose ACQUIRE: XLP 200@84.10, SPY 20@751.28 (tactical), SKYY 85@137.56 QUEUED. WITHDRAW XLF. DISPOSE none.
- 3 July 2026 2 acquire / 0 dispose ACQUIRE QUEUED: XLP 235@84.99, XLF 360@55.22. DISPOSE none.
- 27 June 2026 1 acquire / 0 dispose FLAT gauge book — no trims/adds. Rotation turned DEFENSIVE: megacaps/big-tech cool (MAGS AVOID, QQQ NO TRADE, XLK/DIA WATCH), defensives lead (XLP/XLV STRONG BUY), semis cooled (SOXX/SMH BUY cv61), small-caps lead (IWM cv98). Top = IWM QUEUED @302.03. US dry.
- 26 June 2026 2 acquire / 0 dispose FLAT gauge book — no trims/adds; sentiment = risk-on but rotating (megacaps down, small-caps/semis/defensives up); top new = SOXX. US dry.